In an early look at November’s statewide races, State Representative James Talarico (D) is up three points over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the race for US Senate, while running for re-election Governor Greg Abbott (R) leads State Representative Gina Hinojosa (D) by five points, according to the inaugural Texas Pulse poll of likely Texas voters released today. The Texas Pulse, a new partnership between the Texas A&M Bush School and ReconMR, similarly finds the races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General are both three point races. Voters favor Republicans for Congress over Democrats by six points, 49-43%.
Voters say that last year’s redistricting was bad rather than good for democracy, 52-37%. When asked to name the most important and second most important issues facing Texans, 61% say the cost of living is one of their top two issues, followed by water supply, 32%, border security, 27%, crime, 23%, the war in Iran, 23%, and disaster preparedness, 10%. President Donald Trump has a negative 46-53% job approval rating and a similarly negative favorability rating, 44-52%. Likely voters approve of Trump’s job securing the border, 56-41%, and are split on his ability to make Americans proud to be Americans 49-48%. Voters disapprove of his job making prices affordable, 58-40%, and ending wars, 54-44%.
“Just a couple weeks after many Texas voters cast their primary ballots, it appears that we’re poised – at least at this point – for competitive statewide races this November. Democrats and Republicans are standing firm with their parties,” ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said. “Independent voters favor the Democratic candidates in the four statewide races. Democratic candidates lead among women by between 5 and 13 points, while Republican candidates lead among men by between 10 and 19 points. It will be worth watching independents and how that gender gap plays out as the election draws closer.”
More voters have a favorable view of Talarico, compared with Paxton; Talarico has a 41-34% favorability rating and Paxton’s favorability rating is 34-54%. Abbott has a favorability rating of 45-49% and Hinojosa has a 32-18% favorability rating (50% have either never heard of her or don’t know enough about her to have an opinion). The candidates for Attorney General and Lieutenant Governor are even more unknown. State Senator Mayes Middleton (R) has a favorability rating of 23-23% (54% unsure); State Senator Nathan Johnson (D) 13-13% (74% unsure). Incumbent Lt. Governor Dan Patrick (R) has a favorability rating of 32-41%; State Representative Vikki Goodwin (D) 14-12% (74% are unsure).
“Voters favor Republicans for Congress over Democrats, 49-43%,” Hendren said. “Young voters are more in favor of a Democratic candidate, 64-30%. Among voters ages 65 and older, 55% would vote for the Republican and 40% the Democrat.
“As we look towards the general election, it’s important to note that Texas is among many states that have recently redrawn their congressional maps for partisan advantage – either for the Republicans or the Democrats. The Supreme Court’s April ruling upheld the Texas Legislature’s effort. Half (52%) of voters say that this redistricting is bad for democracy, while 37% say it is good. Partisanship sharply divides views: 71% of Republicans say the new map is good for democracy, compared with just 3% of Democrats,” Hendren said.
There’s more to the press release, and the crosstabs are here, which I appreciate. The headline numbers for the four races they tested:
US Senate: Talarico 47% Paxton 44%
Governor: Abbott 49% Hinojosa 44%
Lt. Governor: Patrick 48% Goodwin 45%
Attorney General: Middleton 44% Johnson 41%
A couple of points to note: All of the top-line Republicans were in negative approval territory, with Abbott (45-49) and Patrick (32-41) being modestly underwater while Paxton (34-54) was deeply disliked. Talarico does do slightly worse with Black voters than the other Dems, but the difference was mostly in the “undecided” number, not in the percentage that was voting for Paxton. He also did best among Latino voters, but with a modest 51-41 lead; Gina Hinojosa led Greg Abbott 49-45 among Latinos, while both Vikki Goodwin and Nathan Johnson were trailing by a few points. This is the second poll in a row showing Republicans doing well with Latino voters after multiple polls showing the opposite. Probably still small-sample weirdness, but worth keeping an eye on since Trump continues to be in the ditch nationally among Latinos. This was also the first result I’ve seen in the Lite Guv race, and I appreciate that as well. It sounds like this outfit, much like TPOR, will be a regular in this space, so we’ll see when their next poll drops.











