Will AI Come for Your Job?

At my age I have lived through a lot of hype cycles.  Everything from "cold fusion", to more than a couple of "room temperature superconductors", to the early days of the internet, and a lot of other magic technologies that were going to Change Everything. 

Now the internet did have a huge impact on everything from business to society, but not in the way anyone forecasted.  And it took over a decade for things to really materialize.  And along the way the companies that were supposed to create big change (pets.com?) are long gone and the companies that had seemingly insurmountable leads gave way to newcomers (Yahoo, Mosaic and a ton of other early pioneers made way for later upstart Google).

The latest hype of course is AI.  While I think it represents a significant change, I think the hype about it is way overdone.  Companies and stock traders are whipping up a frenzy to make gobs of money while any real changes will be years away (like the early internet).  I also think that what AI can do is rather limited.  Like everyone else I tried Chat GPT when it first came out and after a couple of hours of playing with it I was underwhelmed.  It gave incorrect answers to several queries and its default writing style comes off like a boot-licking toady due to the woke programming.

Perhaps I am too old to be impressed by AI as I actually store knowledge in my brain rather than rely on the internet.  So the fear about AI is probably true for younger generations who don't know anything, can't do critical thinking, and coasted through college while getting a Gender Studies degree.

A post over at Mish discussed a WSJ article if we are entering the "Cognitive Revolution", where someone tested if they could be replaced by an AI.  Here is my comment at Mish about the article and concept:

If your job can be replaced with AI then you have a rote data collection/data spewing job that does not create new information, advancements, or include any true creation. 

Now this does include a very large number of people holding down seats in cube farms, call centers and the like.  Plus anything that is cookie cutter/rules based output like basic wills, tax forms and the like. 

So if your answer is "yes AI can replace my job", then maybe you are good at memorization, data management and outputting that info, but not really with original creative thinking, interpersonal interaction, or a dozen other human talents I could list.  If you are worried about AI, then develop your skills where AI cannot.

I am not worried about AI replacing my job, and I don't use AI to help me because, quite frankly, I can write and find information better than it can.  But I do agree that it is better than most of the graduates the US school system is putting out these days.

 

I Have Been Assimilated

Yeah, yeah, first I ridiculed it as the "Big Touch".  Then I said I would wait until other tablets came out before making a decision.  But then I read this article that said that the iPad's lead is "overwhelming" and that none of the newer tablets coming out could hope to even come close to what the iPad offers.  Plus I have a long trip coming up, and I justified the purchase as needing something to do on the plane.

As as side note, yes, this picture was trying to subtlety reference Escher:

A Lot Of What You Own Is Made By a Company You Never Heard Of

Hon Hai - also known as Foxconn - has nearly a million employees churning out iPhones, computers, video games, and all sort of gadgets. Whole cities of nothing but 300,000 Foxconn employess - giant versions of 19th century factory towns - exist to crank out electronics for the world masses.

The article Everything Is Made by Foxconn in Future gives an interesting overview of this giant company, it's founder, and it's place in the world supply chain.

Japan's Version of "Computer Dating"

I love Japan, but it is a strange culture. So I was not too surprised to see that Japanese men are starting to spend real-world weekend get-aways with virtual computer girlfriends:

In the first month of the city's promotional campaign launched July 10, more than 1,500 male fans of the Japanese dating-simulation game LovePlus+ have flocked to Atami for a romantic date with their videogame character girlfriends.

The men are real. The girls are cartoon characters on a screen. The trips are actual, can be expensive and aim to re-create the virtual weekend outing featured in the game, a product of Konami Corp. played on Nintendo Co.'s DS videogame system.

The link has pictures of the three girlfriends to choose from, so you can decide for yourself which one you would want to take a weekend trip with.  I am a "girl-next-door" type myself and would go for Manaka-chan.

Is There Going To Be a Tablet for Every OS?

The iPad, of course, uses Apple's operating system.  Windows, Linux and Android tablets are all announced for late year introductions.  And now we have HP planning to introduce a Palm tablet computer.

I guess HP had to do something with their Palm acquisition...

Kickbacks at Apple?

I am a little astounded, and as someone who sells technology appalled: Apple manager indicted on kickback charges:

(Apple Manager) Devine, 37, is accused of accepting more than $1 million in exchange for providing confidential information to Apple suppliers in Asia. The suppliers allegedly used the information to negotiate favorable contracts with Apple, which is based in Cupertino.

Right now the companies involved are saying that they did not know this guy worked at Apple and were buying "consulting services". That just happen to help them win contracts at Apple.

Computers Lower the Skills of Poor Kids

I have always wondered about politicians touting computers and internet for low-income kids to "help them get a leg up".  Vast numbers of the poor can't handle basic reading and math, but a computer will somehow make them valuable workers?   What these politicians don't realize is that the vast majority of kids don't use their computer as a "computer", but rather as an entertainment vehicle for Facebook, games and porn.  It distracts them from learning, not helps.

Seems that some people are finally figuring it out.  From the NYT of all places:

Economists are trying to measure a home computer’s educational impact on schoolchildren in low-income households. Taking widely varying routes, they are arriving at similar conclusions: little or no educational benefit is found. Worse, computers seem to have further separated children in low-income households, whose test scores often decline after the machine arrives, from their more privileged counterparts

When I got my first computer as a kid (queue up early 80s background music, see a 12-year old kid in front of a now-ancient Commodore Pet), I actually used it to program.  I taught myself BASIC.  I learned if-then statements and for-loops.   I wrote my own games.  It eventually led me down the path of electrical engineering ("Hey, computers are interesting, maybe I should go into that?").

Today's computers can be beneficial to learning - just like television can be - but most people won't take advantage of it and instead will be sucked into the mindless entertainment side.

The XBox Kinect: Redefining Gaming

I had the opportunity to swing by the Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) this week in Los Angeles, which is one of the main gaming trade shows in North America. The vast majority of booths are dedicated to software and games, but being a "hardware" guy I focused on the Big 3 platform providers: Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo. There are lots of web sites more dedicated to gaming that do a better job summarizing these systems than I do, so I will just jot down my thoughts after going through the show:

• Microsoft has definitely redefined the game control experience with the introduction of the Kinect, much as Nintendo did with the Wii five years ago. Not only did MS create an incredible user experience that is unlike anything out there now, but they got "critical" mass behind the game with Kinect titles being introduced at the show by Ubisoft, Creative Arts, and other gaming companies.  This will definitely be the "must have" system for people who are into games.

• Sony's Move control system is lame. Very lame. It doesn’t offer any more functionality than the five year-old Wii controller, except track you in the Z, and makes you look even more dorky while doing it since it works by sensing a light stuck on the end of the controller. The set-up also looks more clumsy than the Wii, with a camera sticking out above the TV rather than the almost unnoticeable Wii sensor bar.  After the show I was thinking that Sony is definitely behind and hurting in this market, then found an article by experts on this industry writing down my exact thoughts.
• Nintendo didn't have any new hardware for the Wii, although they did announce some new games that I will likely add to my Christmas shopping list. With theWii Controller and Fit balance board together not giving the flexibility and experience of the Kinect, I would hope that Nintendo has some sort of 3D sensing in development in the lab if they want to keep up with MS.  
  
  Nintendo's main announcement was their new DS with 3D screen and 3D picture taking.  Nintendo is really becoming the only handheld game company left, the Sony PS2 being a market loser and much of the portable market going to the cellphone. The 3D technology is obviously Nintendo's strategy to differentiate the DS from a cellphone, which is now the largest growing game "platform" on the market, and they will have to keep adding things to the portable systems that can't be found in a cellphone if they want to survive.

It was an interesting show, but not THAT interesting for a hardware guy.  There were over a hundred other booths dedicated to new games and software, and someone seriously into gaming would have had a blast trying out all the new titles.  For those reviews, the best place to take a look is over at GameSpot.

Prius? Who Likes This POS?

I rent econoboxes from Hertz several times a month for business travel. All I need is basic transportation and usually my rental cars don't make any impression on my mind. They are useful for what I need at the time, but are unremarkable, interchangeable, and unrememberable. Sort of like the girls I dated in high school.
This week Hertz gave me a Prius. And for the first time I found myself absolutely hating my rental car.

It's not the pick-up, acceleration or any other car-handling issue. In that category I find the Prius about the same as other nameless econoboxes. As an aggressive driver I had no problem passing and cutting off people, rabbit starting from lights and cutting over two lanes in front of other cars, or doing three-lane exits off the highway at 70 miles an hour. Not as good as my Beemer, of course, but definitely good enough to piss off pansy drivers who don't understand that you never leave open space between you and the car ahead of you.

What is horribly, horribly wrong with the Prius is the control system for the radio, climate control, etc. They all come through a common display, which is "off" until you want to do something. So going down the highway at 70 and weaving through traffic you have to fiddle through a tree of commands just to tune the radio or turn down the AC.   And the interior seems cheap, much cheaper than the usual economy car.

Then there is the constant humming noise coming out of the engine block. At first I thought there was a window slightly opened, but then I realized the windows were up and the noise is almost always in the car. Only when the engine is idle (I suppose in electric mode - which was rare the way I drive) does the noise go away. It is truly annoying and even turning up the radio (once I found the controls) didn't make it go away.

So after comparing to any other car, there is no way anyone in their right mind should buy it. But people do, all because they can feel better about themselves about having a hybrid. And don't say that it is about saving money, as several studies have shown that what you save on gas never makes up the higher investment of the Prius over an economy car (say a Hyundai).

Avoid.

Beware Chinese Easter Eggs

In other words, hidden traps or software in the networking equipment they sell.  India finally figured it out:

The Financial Times reported yesterday that the country’s Telecommunications Department informed the office of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that requests for importing Chinese manufactured hardware where being turned down on security grounds.

Essentially if you buy Chinese networking equipment, you just invited the Chinese gonvernment into your computer system.  India has figured it out, so it will be interesting to see if anyone else does.

HPalmCompaq

HP acquires Palm. It isn't suprising that Palm got acquired, what is surprising (to me anyway) was that it was HP. Everyone else was mentioned at one point.

That puts both U.S. PC makers - Dell and HP - into the cellphone market. Add Smartphone giants Apple and RIM, plus Microsoft's and Google's recent foray into cellphones, then include struggling Motorola, and we have a nice little cellphone industry located right here in North America.

Of course none of the manufacturing is done here - it's all overseas.

Being an Early Adopter Has a Price

The article is trying to be provocative by saying early adopters are "screwed", but that is the definition of an early adopter - you are willing to pay the price, whether monetary, being obsoleted quickly, or buying from a company that goes out of business or changes its business model. Don't whine about it.

If It Could Actually Scale In Real Life

My first impression of the iPad was "meh". And as just a big iTouch I think they should have called it the BigTouch.

Here is a side-by-side of the BigTouch iPad versus the iPhone




What would be cool is if these two were the same device - it would be small when you need it as a phone, but you could pull the corners and streatch it out into laptop mode when you needed something bigger or wanted to type. Then push a butten to snap it back down as a phone or put in your pocket.

I actually think something like this will be possible in my lifetime - but just barely.

"Uniquitous Video"? Give Me a Break.

I was visiting the Met last week and watched several tourists walking through the museum with their camcorders slightly above their head and permanently on as they filmed their entire experience. Most of their attention was on their camera instead of directly absorbing the art and antiquities that were around them.

And, according to surveys I've seen (paid for so no link), do you know how many times the average person will sit down and watch a video they have taken from a vacation or trip? Zero. That's right, the majority of people don't even watch the vacation videos they take! The next largest is once. And hardly anyone sits down and watches a vacation video more than once (wedding videos do a little better with a few viewings).

At any rate, although people don't watch their vacation videos, they apparently like taking them. Keying in on this trend were several companies at CES promoting "ubiquitous video", or some sort of contraption that will let people videotape everything they are experiencing, relieving them of the burden of actually absorbing and remembering.

Seems to me it would be more efficient to just "watch" your experience the first time and remember it. And then use a still picture or maybe a short video to share with others or remind you of the experience.

Self-Controlled Army Vehicles?

This is sort of interesting:

To save a soldier's life a day, the US armed forces have been ordered to convert one third of their combat vehicles to driverless operation.
...
Today nearly every piece of agricultural machinery can drive itself...GPS subcontractors, partners, or aftermarket suppliers provide the GPS based guidance systems to ag equipment manufacturers...Perhaps this technology could be applied to a US Army supply truck delivering the urgently needed supplies to our troops.

Drones are already there, not requiring pilots. It's not a stretch to trick out a truck full of supplies to drive supplies to soldiers in the field.

Ultimately we'll see "virtual reality" planes and tanks, where the soldier is safe in some room miles away while he controls in 3D a real tank in the field or a plane in the sky. Call it video-game soldiering. It's not that far away.

CES: One of the Best and One of the Scariest Demos Both in the Microsoft Booth

This is a giant touch screen - I would say 8x10 FEET. Each of the little boxes represents a space on the internet. When you tap it a little screen with the relevant info comes up. Waaaaay cool.

The next display, on the other hand, made me cringe. My first thought of was that if Microsoft gets into a car the "Blue Screen of Death" would become literal phrase rather than a metaphore.



My second thought was that the trade show manager should have thought of a better sign than a big blue screen - of death.

There are a lots of analyses of CES out there, but this year it's all about one thing: 3DTV.

Term of the Day: Augmented Reality

I thought this phrase had to do with plastic surgery, but it is simply the combination of graphics and other information onto live video feeds. It has been used in movies, games and various industrial design applications for several years (this video from a few years ago is sort of interesting).

But now we're seeing this concept being pulled into cellphones. Add in GPS and location detection, and it becomes a helpful mapping application. This video is a little cheezy but explains the concept pretty well.

Wii Resort - I Wish This Resort Existed in Real Life

I have been playing Wii Resort with the daughter, and I have to give it two thumbs waaay up.

The positive review at the WSJ called Wii Resort - and the new, improved Wii Motion Plus controller - an evolutionary improvement, and I would have to agree with them on that point. But as for the actual game of Wii Resort, I find it much more engrossing than Wii Sports, and it makes me wish this place existed in real life.

The theme of the game is that you are at an island resort - you actually parachute in - and then have various activities - ping pong, sky diving, fencing, golf, frisbee, etc. - to keep you occupied for days.

The Motion Plus controller adds to to the games where wrist control can come in handy - like frisbee. For games that existed on Wii Sports (bowling, golf) it adds an element of reality, but makes it harder. Tennis is replaced with ping pong, where wrist action comes more into play.

By far my favorite is sword play, especially the "Showdown" where you battle dozens of Miis at once like a kung-fu movie. Also in the martial arts category is archery, which has a surprisingly realistic feel using the motion controller tethered with the "nunchuck". The only thing missing is the feel of the tension of the string.

If you have a Wii, definitely go out and buy the package.

I Don't Collect Kindles - Just Looks That Way

After one year and one day - literally - my Kindle went out. The screen was was fried with horizontal lines. I called Amazon ready to raise hell, but they happily offered to ship me a new one at no charge, even though the warranty had expired 24 hours before.

So I get my new one, and it was DOA. WTF?

So I call Amazon ready to raise hell again, and they offered to send me ANOTHER one. Third time was a charm. I just have to make when I ship the two broken ones back that the working one doesn't accidentally get in there.

So overall, although I had issues, Amazon customer support really came through. Two thumbs up. My only complaint was that I was hoping they would ship me a replacement Kindle 2 instead - I didn't realize they were still selling the original. My guess is that they are working off stock and will obsolete it eventually.

Pictures for Computers

Look at this "picture" for a moment. It is absolutely meaningless to a human - a random array of bits and dots. But when viewed by a machine, this picture has meaning. In this case data about a Microsoft product.

It is forecasted that in the next few years there will be more cameras built for computers than built for humans. For humans, cameras are for capturing, transmitting and storing images. For computers an "image" is rarely created. The data goes straight into the machine for interpretation, and a "picture" - or something that can be interpreted by a human - is rarely created.

Think back - if you had told George Eastman 100 years ago that the future is in building cameras for non-humans he would have thought you were crazy. But if you look how Kodak has done lately it looks like they should have worked a little crazy into the business model.