
Let’s get one thing out of the way real quick. In the NBA, Jordan won’t be seen as the consensus GOATs within a few decades at the latest when people get a better perspective on whatever perspective they may get in the future. In MLB, Babe played with the plumbers, Bonds is not even in HOF and Ohtani won’t be GOAT period. In NFL, Brady is closest of being the GOAT in a sport that separate offense positions from defense positions. Mahomes is literally within reach of all of Brady’s records within a decade and half. In NHL, it’s hard to argue who is actually the GOAT over the two main contenders. NASCAR GOAT convo is probably even more fragmented. In soccer literally no one can ever be the consensus GOAT because there are so many different leagues, awards and tournaments all over the place. History might be written by the winners but the winners always change therefore history always change. Every a few decades new revelations is revealed when a different trend for a new era of standards come into play. The whole premise of GOAT will stay GOAT is ridiculous. Even greats admits records are meant to be broken and most people measure greats by their records. In reality, a real goat becomes dirt after their time has passed anyway. It’s the cycle of the universe. No one will be themselves forever. This is precisely why when the so-called current GOAT chase cards become extremely hot, it’s a good time to offload and look for new GOAT chase cards for nano-pennies on the dollar.
All great inventions come with risks and risks on expected value terms yields significant returns over time. The biggest risk mitigation strategy is scale and the cost of the initial scale frequently can’t be footed by individual entities alone. This is one of the biggest issues with pure-form classical capitalism. It creates the chicken and egg issue regarding whether demand or supply come first and neither one can’t happen without government intervention of some sort but government intervention in a free market is also a chicken and egg situation of neo-communism versus neo-capitalism. In this particular case, the trend will flow on its own down to human nature. The hot new thing will always have more money to be made than the stagnant one that only a few have control over that starve the enthusiasm from the rest of the market. This is the same reason why companies split stocks so everyone can afford the shares at face value even if the stock at the moment of the split is at least nominally the same but typically increase in price as both a signal for demand and future growth and allow more people to get into the game of potentially getting rich. This is also the same logic as cryptos like Bitcoins and Pokemon cards even though most of these “collectors” never spent a basis point of a Bitcoin to transact anything in their life just like the basement dweller probably never watched the animation after the first 150 and never learned how to play the TCG.
I think the ones that will end up holding the biggest bags that buy cards of legends like Shaq who is one of the greatest ever, but will never be the GOAT. GOAT and non-GOAT HOFs have dramatically different multipliers for their collectibles throughout history. People frequently confuse the baseline GOAT metrics with marketability like being a talking head on TV or a billionaire. The baseline will always be their place in history for what they are primarily known for and the marketability is just the icing or the force multiplier on the side. Do you know the price difference between a 1952 Topps Mantle card and a Yogi Berra card from the same set? Mantle has double the WAR but his cards are probably 1,000 or more of Yogi’s cards from the same sets. People will say Mantle is not the GOAT but at one point he was in the main GOAT consideration. I’m not saying this will be the case every time in all examples as there will be many anomalies and exceptions to any rule if we are going to be honest, but in terms of rule of thumb or on-average scenarios, I think history will show that marginal to moderate greatness over the great of the greatest typically yield astronomical premiums. Yes, some of the early tobacco cards are worth a fortune, but that’s not solely due to anyone factor but due to the combination of their history and historical value in telling about the story of the sport and hobby. The GOAT chase cards will probably remain hot throughout the sport season until the summer of 2027 Summer when things will likely slow down due to seasonality in the business. Kids don’t even collect cards under thirty bucks because grading is no longer worth it for cards at these price levels. This is exactly why you should make the switch instead of holding the bag.
Benchmark is everything in life. Comparisons are unavoidable. Sports already have analytics like Sabermetrics like WAR in baseball, VORP in football, EPA in NFL and GAR in NHL that predict the value of a player’s contributions to a team’s success. At the end of the day, great players make their teams successful and team success means recognition from the fans. I see GOATs and HOF as two different entities in the world of card valuations. Your average HOF player is exceptional, but in terms of card valuation, your typical HOF player card value will probably end up keeping up with inflation in best case scenarios. G-WORD stands for “GOAT – Worth Over Replacement Dud.” I created the G-WORD valuation method metric to provide an idiot proof way to value cards. All cards are assumed to be of the same or equivalent comparable conditions.
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G-WORD collectible cards valuation method.

1+((Current GOAT main rookie base card value/Alternative GOAT main rookie base card value in the same era))/100)-(Future GOAT main rookie base card value/Alternative GOAT main rookie base card value in the same era)/100))=Greatness Index Era Adjustment
((Greatness Index Era Adjustment) x (Purchasing power of current GOAT main rookie base card value of current year in year of card release – Purchasing power of future GOAT main rookie base card value of current year in year of card release))=G-WORD
Assume the following:
Current GOAT: A grade 8 Jordan 1986 Fleer is $20K in September of 2026. $6.5K in 1986 purchasing power.
Alternative of current GOAT in same era: A grade 8 Hakeem 1986 Fleer is $500 in September of 2026.
Future GOAT: A grade 8 Lebron 2003-2004 Topps Chrome is $3K in September of 2026. $1.5K in 2003 purchasing power. $1.5K in 2003 purchasing power.
Alternative of future GOAT in same era: A grade 8 KD 2007-2008 Topps Chrome is $350 in September of 2026.
Greatness Index Era Adjustment=1.055
G-WORD=$5,275
This means the LeBron card mentioned above should be worth at a book value of $5,275 in September 2026 purchasing power if LeBron is indeed the GOAT in the future.





































































































































































































