Franz-Stefan Gady

NOW OUT: A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare, by David H. Ucko and Thomas A Marks (NDU Press). Available in full at: https://lnkd.in/er3gSicq This book is based on the urgent need for a more effective response to organized crime. Its does two things. First, it applies an “irregular warfare” lens to the problem of organized crime, which helps situate the divergent criminal activity within its crucial political context. Second, we propose an analytical framework, designed for irregular warfare, to aid practitioners in their assessment of, and their response to, organized crime. This approach—the Framework for Analysis and Action—builds on an instructional method long used within the College of International Security Affairs at the U.S. National Defense University to prepare practitioners for insurgency, terrorism, and state-based subversion. Here, it is adapted specifically for organized crime, to guide the analysis and planning of those who are charged with responding to this challenge. Hopefully this will be of use to practitioners, to educators, and to academics. An abbreviated “user’s guide” for the framework is included in Appendix A to facilitate its rapid employment.

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ICYMI - don't forget to catch up on this week's episode of "Stabilizing Westeros" before next week's deep dive into the Economy bucket of the Fragile States Index comes out on Thursday!

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My colleagues and I at the Montreal Institute for Global Security (MIGS) are excited to help put this discussion together on how to counter hybrid warfare in Europe. Bernd Althusmann Isabelle Poupart

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As part of the Center for European Policy Analysis' comprehensive dissection of Russia's shadow warfare across Europe, a new report authored by Eitvydas Bajarunas argues that Russia must be deterred before it is too late. Among the report's top findings: 🔷 Hybrid warfare is not episodic, but a permanent feature of Russia’s strategy, rooted in Soviet “active measures” and enhanced by modern tools like artificial intelligence–enabled information manipulation and cyber operations. It exploits the seams of open societies below the war threshold. 🔷 Defensive measures such as cybersecurity and critical infrastructure protection mitigate damage but do not deter Russia.  🔷 Responses must go beyond resilience, which on its own will not stop hybrid warfare; allies should pair deterrence-by-denial with deterrence-by-punishment. 🔷 Deterrence principles must address clear credibility, capability, and communication, and all these measures must remain grounded in the rule of law to ensure legitimacy, allied unity, and stability.     🔷 Instead of warning Russia of the possible ramifications of its actions, allies should be proactive by imposing timely, coordinated costs to make hybrid aggression a losing bet for the Kremlin. 👉 See the full report here: https://lnkd.in/e8rh_daw

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Financial resources are vital for terrorist organizations. Our newly published article analyzes how targeting finances affects ISIS’s capacity in Iraq. With Dr.Selçuk Bacalan https://lnkd.in/dtyuh3fp

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🌍 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲'𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗴𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲. Today, stability and alignment in the countries closest to Europe's borders are a key issue for the continent's long-term security architecture. 🆕 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀, a new research project led by ECIPE Director Philipp Lamprecht and Senior Fellow Tengiz Pkhaladze, focuses on practical, near-term cooperation between the EU and its wider neighbourhood. Instead of waiting for long institutional processes, the project identifies concrete areas where collaboration can happen now, complementing the enlargement agenda. Find more information here ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dkQQ_Pb7

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Hosting Ukraine’s “data embassy” on the territory of a NATO member would automatically bring our critical digital infrastructure under the Alliance’s collective defence system – making any aggression against it an act of war against the entire bloc. This is something we should actively pursue with our partners. Tough times call for creative solutions. If, for political reasons, we cannot join NATO the traditional way, we have every chance to integrate into the Alliance through the cloud. I explored the idea of cloud-based security guarantees in my latest column for Ukrinform. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dnGuF8PG.

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"Imagine Europe’s reinforcement in a crisis. While the U.S. struggles to activate its handful of aging Ready Reserve Force ships, Greece could mobilize hundreds of modern vessels, providing tankers to fuel NATO’s air and ground assets, plus bulk carriers to transport munitions, supplies, and follow-on forces. This is not a theoretical capability; it is a tangible, legally accessible asset that addresses NATO’s greatest logistical vulnerability." Sharp, incisive NATO capabilities analysis by Markos Kounalakis, Ph.D.

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