Showing posts with label 2010 elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 elections. Show all posts

Saturday, April 26, 2014

SATURDAY POLITICS: California Voter Registration By Party, 1998-2014

California's Secretary of State released figures on voter registration as mandated by law 60 days before the June 3, 2014 primary election. The data show the dramatic increase in the number of voters who select the "No Party Preference" option as well as the dramatic collapse of the Republican brand in California. Independents went from 12.2% of registrants in 1998 to 21.1% in 2014. In that same period Republican's share went from 35.8% to 28.6%. Democrats have slowly decreased, from a high if 46.8 in 1998 to 43.5% now. Bizarrely, there are now more counties where Republicans (31) outnumber Democrats (27).

However, the top 10 counties by Democratic registration are:
  1. San Francisco 56.27%
  2. Alameda 56.06%
  3. Santa Cruz 54.43%
  4. Marin 54.38%
  5. Sonoma 51.80% 
  6. San Mateo 51.01% 
  7. Monterey 50.96% 
  8. Los Angeles 50.64%
  9. Imperial 50.14%
  10. Contra Costa 49.41%
Happily, this includes the largest country in the state, Los Angeles. There are now 17,660,486 registered voters, up from 16,897,383. That equates to 73.3% of eligible voters being registered.

Monday, December 30, 2013

Partisanship in State Legislatures At All-Time High


The Washington Post has a fascinating story in the Sunday paper which documents the increased partisanship at the state legislative level. In 37 states a single party completely controls the levers of power: 23 states are controlled by Republicans and 14 are controlled by Democrats (12 states have split control and Nebraska has a nonpartisan unicameral).
The values that underpin these governing strategies reflect contrasting political visions, and the differences can be seen in stark terms in the states. In a red state such as Texas, government exists mostly to get out of the way of the private sector while holding to traditional social values. In blue states such as California and Maryland, government takes more from taxpayers, particularly the wealthy, to spend on domestic priorities while advancing a cultural agenda that reflects the country’s growing diversity. 
[...] 
Control in the states today is more closely aligned with voting patterns in presidential elections than in the days when conservative Democrats dominated state and local elections in the South and moderate Republicans held greater sway in the North. 
Karl Kurtz, a political scientist at the National Conference of State Legislatures, noted in an article published this year that Republicans control both houses of the legislatures in 22 of the 24 states carried by Mitt Romney in 2012 and that Democrats hold majorities in 18 of the 26 states won by Obama. 
The eight Obama states that have full or partial Republican control are or recently have been presidential battlegrounds. These are Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
It's an interesting article. It will be very easy to take stock of the partisanship tally at the end of the 2014 midterm elections.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) Endorses Marriage Equality


Lisa Murkowski, the Senior United States Senator from Alaska, made history today as the 3rd Republican U.S. Senator to publicly announce her support for marriage equality. Murkowski is considered a somewhat moderate member of her caucus, and is also the first Republican female Senator to endorse marriage equality. The other two Republican senators who support full marriage rights for same-sex couples are Mark Kirk of Illinois (2nd Republican Senator to do so) and Rob Portman of Ohio (first Republican to do so, in response to his son's coming out as gay).

Here is an excerpt from the statement on her official Senate website:
The Supreme Court is set to make a pair of decisions on the topic of marriage equality shortly, and the national conversation on this issue is picking back up. This is a significant moment for our nation when it comes to rethinking our society’s priorities and the role of government in Americans’ private lives and decisions, so I want to be absolutely clear with Alaskans. I am a life-long Republican because I believe in promoting freedom and limiting the reach of government.  When government does act, I believe it should encourage family values.  I support the right of all Americans to marry the person they love and choose because I believe doing so promotes both values:  it keeps politicians out of the most private and personal aspects of peoples’ lives – while also encouraging more families to form and more adults to make a lifetime commitment to one another.  While my support for same sex civil marriage is something I believe in, I am equally committed to guaranteeing that religious freedoms remain inviolate, so that churches and other religious institutions can continue to determine and practice their own definition of marriage.

With the notion of marriage – an exclusive, emotional, binding ‘til death do you part’ tie – becoming more and more an exception to the rule given a rise in cohabitation and high rates of divorce, why should the federal government be telling adults who love one another that they cannot get married, simply because they happen to be gay?   I believe when there are so many forces pulling our society apart, we need more commitment to marriage, not less.

This thinking is consistent with what I hear from more and more Alaskans especially our younger generations.  Like the majority of Alaskans, I supported a constitutional amendment in 1998 defining marriage as only between a man and a woman, but my thinking has evolved as America has witnessed a clear cultural shift.  Fifteen years after that vote, I find that when one looks closer at the issue, you quickly realize that same sex unions or civil marriages are consistent with the independent mindset of our state – and they deserve a hands-off approach from our federal policies.
I think as the Supreme Court cases get released there will be a flood of similar statements as politicians use the opportunity of a major change from the United States Supreme Court towards LGBT equality to articulate their opinion change on LGBT equality as well.

Sunday, July 22, 2012

STUDY: Racial Animus Fuels Voter ID Laws

One of the big stories of 2012 as the United States approaches the presidential election on November 6 has been what progressives like to call "the war on voting." It's pretty much an article of faith among most people who are not Republicans that our Democracy is strengthened if more people vote. However, in many states with a Republican majority in the legislature and a Republican governor (like Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida) due to the low-turnout 2010 elections, Republicans have passed "voter identification" (sometimes called "vote protection" laws by Republicans or "voter suppression" laws by Democrats) which appear to have the effect of reducing the number of people who will be allowed to cast a legal vote.

Voter ID Laws Have Disparate Impact On Racial Minorities
The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law has analyzed the impact of these voter identification laws on various racial groups, poor people and young people and the results are striking:
The 11 percent of eligible voters who lack the required photo ID must travel to a designated government office to obtain one. Yet many citizens will have trouble making this trip. In the 10 states with restrictive voter ID laws:
  • Nearly 500,000 eligible voters do not have access to a vehicle and live more than 10 miles from the nearest state ID-issuing office open more than two days a week. Many of them live in rural areas with dwindling public transportation options.
  • More than 10 million eligible voters live more than 10 miles from their nearest state ID-issuing office open more than two days a week.
  • 1.2 million eligible black voters and 500,000 eligible Hispanic voters live more than 10 miles from their nearest ID-issuing office open more than two days a week. People of color are more likely to be disenfranchised by these laws since they are less likely to have photo ID than the general population.
  • Many ID-issuing offices maintain limited business hours. For example, the office in Sauk City, Wisconsin is open only on the fifth Wednesday of any month. But only four months in 2012 — February, May, August, and October — have five Wednesdays. In other states — Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas — many part-time ID-issuing offices are in the rural regions with the highest concentrations of people of color and people in poverty.
More than 1 million eligible voters in these states fall below the federal poverty line and live more than 10 miles from their nearest ID-issuing office open more than two days a week. These voters may be particularly affected by the significant costs of the documentation required to obtain a photo ID. Birth certificates can cost between $8 and $25. Marriage licenses, required for married women whose birth certificates include a maiden name, can cost between $8 and $20. By comparison, the notorious poll tax — outlawed during the civil rights era — cost $10.64 in current dollars.
A poll tax by any other name is still a poll tax (and is therefore just as unconstitutional)!

Joan McCarter at DailyKos points out that the suppressive effect on the voting rights of these constituencies, all of whom tend to vote more prevalently for Democrats than Republicans, is precisely what the people who passed the laws intended.

Voter ID Laws Are Fueled By Racial Animus
One interesting question is what is fueling the drive for voter identification laws now and another academic study has analyzed that question and come to a conclusion (that is unsurprising to some) that it involves racism.


The University of Delaware's Center for Political Communication recently conducted a national survey of American voters to discover what kind of voters support voter identification laws and demonstrated that support for the measures is highly correlated with racial resentment, regardless of party affiliation.

In fact, while most Republicans and conservatives strongly support voter identification laws regardless of their level of racial resentment, it is Democrats and liberals who have more racial resentment that are more likely to support voter identification laws.
The survey reveals strong partisan and ideological divisions on racial resentment [see Figure]. Republicans and conservatives have the highest “racial resentment” scores, and Democrats and liberals have the lowest; Independents and moderates are in the middle. In addition, Democrats and liberals are least supportive of voter ID laws, whereas Republicans and conservatives are most supportive. The link between “racial resentment” and support for such laws persists even after controlling for the effects of partisanship, ideology, and a range of demographic variables.
Read the last sentence again. Regardless of partisanship (Republican or Democrat) or ideology (conservative or liberal) or other demographics, people who support voter identification laws are correlated with people who harbor racial resentment. There's also the matter-of-fact reporting that Republicans and conservatives have the highest levels of racial resentment; it is not just partisanship which animates the Right's energetic efforts to replace the first black Democratic president.

Hopefully, federal courts who are considering challenges to these voter identification laws in places like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania (which "just happen" to be the swing states where the outcome of the 2012 presidential election may be decided) will also consider the unconstitutional disparate racial impact of these laws as well as the evidence that that they are fueled by unconstitutional racial animus.

Our nation's democratic tradition is one of the wonders of the modern world, but it is vulnerable to partisan manipulation, especially in a close election, because all one has to do is produce a disturbance or perturbation which either (more likely) suppresses voter turnout of your opposition or enhances voter turnout of your supporters on Election Day to swing an election in your favor. Once Election Day is over, it's over and the results will stand, even if those results were tainted by partisan trickery. And once a group is able to achieve a result that does not reflect what the majority of voters actually intended (some would argue that this already has happened!) it is basically the end of our nation's democratic tradition.

Saturday, February 04, 2012

SATURDAY POLITICS: CA Republicans Nearly Extinct

PartyFeb 1999January 2008January 2012
Democratic46.72%42.71%43.63%
Republican35.27%33.45%30.36%
NPP12.89%19.38%21.24%
 
Check out these new statsistsics about party registration in California just released by Secretary of State Debra Bowen. Democrats now have a 13 percentage-point advantage in party registration (43% to 30%) over Republicans with No Particular Party (i.e. "Independents") at "21%. This is an increase of the already-overwhelming advantage Democrats enjoyed four years ago in January 2008 when the advantage was a mere 9 percentage points (42% to 33%).

You may recall that Democrats went on to win every single statewide race in November 2010. The current results bode well for these officials re-election chances in November 2014, as well as Barack Obama's likelihood of winning the state's 55 electoral votes for president this November, and probably U.S. Dianne Feinstein's re-election as well (although I will not be voting for her).

Hat/tip to Calitics.

Friday, October 07, 2011

EQCA: No Go On Prop 8 Re-Do In '12

Well! Equality California has finally acknowledged a repeal effort of 2008's Proposition 8 is not going to happen in 2012:

Equality California said that while public opinion on marriage for same-sex couples has increased since Proposition 8 passed in 2008, support continues to hover near 50 percent—indicating more work must be done before asking voters to overturn Proposition 8 through what would inevitably be  a very expensive and difficult campaign. In addition, the Perry v. Brown legal challenge to Proposition 8 has provided hope that the freedom to marry can be restored in California and create a legal precedent to protect marriage without the potential risks and expense of a multi-million dollar campaign in these very trying economic times. 
"With a challenge to Prop 8’s discrimination now before the courts, Freedom to Marry supports Equality California’s decision to forego a ballot campaign in 2012,” said Evan Wolfson, founder and President of Freedom to Marry. ”Freedom to Marry will continue to work with Equality California and our many other partners to engage Californians in the crucial conversations necessary to grow the pro-marriage majority and permanently restore the freedom to marry in California as soon as possible."
“We share the pain, frustration and discrimination that California same-sex couples and their families experience every day because they are denied the freedom to marry,” Palencia said. “Today, we are recommitting ourselves to doing the hard work of changing hearts and minds to be ready to change that reality should the courts fail to do their job.” 
Although I only live part-time in California, I am still registered to vote there, and I support the decision not to move forward with a ballot measure, especially since there will almost definitely be marriage equality fights in Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina and Oregon next year.

Friday, August 05, 2011

Celebrity Friday: Pougnet Decides Not To Run For Congress


 Steve Pougnet is the openly gay Mayor of Palm Springs. He was also the Democratic nominee for the 45th Congressional District of California in the 2010 federal elections. He was widely expected to seek a rematch in 2012 but recently he announced that he would seek re-election as Mayor of Palm Springs in Fall 2011 and would suspend his 2012 Congressional campaign.
Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet announced Thursday he will not seek to unseat Rep. Mary Bono Mack, R-Palm Springs, in the 2012 election.
Instead, Pougnet told friends and supporters at the Hyatt Regency Suites that he wants to focus on finishing his job as the city’s mayor.
“The new congressional district is one that a Democrat can win," Pougnet told Patch. "There are some wonderful things happening here in the city of Palm Springs.”
Good luck to Mayor Pougnet on winning a second term. Let's hope some ohter Democrat steps up to the plate to challenge Chaz Bono's step-mom, the odious Rep. Mary Bono Mack.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Celebrity Friday: Jackie Lacey Could Become LA County DA

Jacquelyn Lacey is the front runner to become the first female (and first African-American)
District Attorney of Los Angeles County
Los Angeles County District Attorney Steve Cooley announced that he would not be seeking a 4th term next year and endorsed the #2 person in the office, Chief Deputy District Attorney Jacquelyn Lacey as his replacement.

Jackie Lacey had already been running for Los Angeles County District Attorney. If she wins, she will become the first Black and first female District Attorney in Los Angeles County, the state's largest. Interestingly, Kamala Harris was the first Black female District Attorney of San Francisco and famously defeated Lacey's boss by a razor-thin margin to become California's first Black and first female Attorney General earlier this year.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Celebrity Friday: Rick Palacio, Openly Gay Chair of Colorado Dems



Rick Palacio, a 36-year-old openly gay, Latino man was recently elected Chairman of the Colorado Democratic Party.

The Denver Post reports:
Palacio, a sixth-generation Coloradan from Pueblo, received more than 50 percent of the vote from members of the state central committee of the Colorado Democratic Party at its biennial reorganizational meeting.

He defeated Polly Baca, a former state senator, and Adam Bowen, the former Larimer County Democratic chairman.

"I'm very excited," Palacio said after the vote. "I'm excited for our party. We have a lot of work ahead of us as Democrats. I look forward to working with Democrats from all 64 different counties to make sure that we succeed in 2012."

Palacio, who will resign his current position as deputy director of member services for U.S. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said it's also important to ensure that all divergent opinions within the party are heard so Democrats can all move forward in the same direction.

Colorado Democratic brass were among the 450 people who attended the morning event. Gov. John Hickenlooper, [Sen. Michael] Bennet and fellow Sen. Mark Udall all gave rousing speeches, trying to energize the base on a day of new beginnings for the state's Democratic Party.

Colorado went blue in the 2008 presidential election and currently has a Democratic Governor and two Democratic United States Senators. Republicans hold the lower state House by 1 vote (out of 65) and Democrats control the state Senate by 5 (out of 35).

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Montana House Passes Anti-LGBT Civil Rights Bill 60-39


Wow. What will the impact of of the 2010 election of hundreds of Republican state legislators on the rights of LGBT people be around the country? Probably a detrimental one.

The State House of Montana just passed the most anti-gay bill in the nation by a vote of 60-39 which would prevent any local entity from enacting local civil rights ordinances which prohibit discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. (Note, this is a more extreme anti-LGBT public policy position than the state of Utah and the Mormon Church.) There was only one such ordinance in the state, in the college town of Missoula, Montana. And it was only enacted last year!

From The Missoulian ("Bill to nullify Missoula's equality ordinance receives backing in House"):
Missoula's Democratic legislators were infuriated by the passage of House Bill 516, by Rep. Kristin Hansen, R-Havre. Her bill passed 60-39 and faces a final House vote before heading to the Senate.


Sixty Republicans voted for it. All 32 Democrats voted opposed it, joined by seven Republicans. One Republican was absent.


[...]


As sponsor, Hansen said HB516 would prohibit local governments from enacting ordinances or policies that seek to protect residents from real or perceived discrimination based on their sexual orientation or gender as Missoula did through an ordinance and Bozeman through a policy.
She said the Missoula City Council adopted the ordinance and provided an enforcement mechanism that fell outside of that in the Montana Human Rights Act.


"It would apply retroactively to the city of Missoula's ordinance in order to keep all businesses and all entities on a level playing field," Hansen said. "All discrimination claims will have to go through the human rights procedures as designated by the Montana Human Rights (Commission)."


[...]


"Our community is filled with possibly the biggest gay and lesbian population in the state," said Rep. Ellie Hill, D-Missoula. "We are a community with the University of Montana. We have a lot of young people. We passed this ordinance because we wanted to protect our own citizens, our own people. You don't have to agree with it." 
Sands said she is proud to be part of the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community and told the House: "There are thousands of ‘us' living in Montana. We are your neighbors, your work colleagues, we are part of your families, we sit in the pew next to you at church, and we serve in elective offices with you." 
Along with other LGBT Montanans and their families, Sands said she was claiming her constitutional right to equality and justice under Montana's constitutional provision that says: "The dignity of the human being is inviolable. No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws." 
"It doesn't say, except for gay people," she said.

The bill  is reminiscent of Colorado's Amendment 2 which was struck down by the United States Supreme Court in Romer v. Evans by a 6-3 vote in 1996. However, that was an anti-gay voter initiative (which overturned local gay rights ordinances in Boulder, Aspen and Denver) while this is a legislatively enacted measure which still needs to go through the upper body and be signed into law by Governor Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat.  The notion that the state is trying to enact a uniform enforcement procedure for discrimination is a transparent fiction. Obviously, the Montana Human Rights Act does NOT include sexual orientation and gender identity and the same Republicans voted to kill a measure which would have added those characteristics. Presumably, Schweitzer will veto the measure if it reaches his desk but has not made a public statement on the measure so far.

Wednesday, February 02, 2011

CA-GOV: Whitman Blew $178.5 MILLION On Failed Bid


Billionaire dilettante politician and failed California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman spent an incredible $178.5 million dollars to lose race for California by 13 points to Jerry Brown last year, a report released on Monday revealed. Whitman apparently spent $144 million of her own estimated $1.2 billion fortune to win the Republican primary in June 2010 and lose the general election in November 2010.

There are now rumors that she is thinking of challenging U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein in 2012. That would be interesting, because I refuse to vote for DiFi again for anything so I would have to skip that race.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Polls Show Wide Support For Obama-Republican Tax Plan

Huffington Post is reporting on two new polls which show that President Obama's new tax cut deal with Congressional Republicans is widely popular with Americans.

The Pew poll has support at 60-22 and the ABC/Washington Post poll has support at 69-17, with various levels of support for the various policy items which make up the deal.

Today cloture was reached in the Senate on the tax cut measure, so it is very likely that the deal will be enacted by Congress before the end of the year (possibly the week).

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

CA-AG: Cooley Concedes! Kamala Harris Wins!

The next Attorney General of California (will be a Black/multiracial woman)


The latest tally has Harris with 4,376,509 votes (or 46.0%) versus 4,324,924 votes (or 45.5%) for Cooley, a lead of 51,585 votes out of 9.5 million votes cast for Attorney General (there were 4 minor party candidates). Note, starting in November 2010 general election ballots in California will only ever have two candidates (with no write-in provision), thanks to the ill-conceived Proposition 14 which passed in June 2010. That, along with "non-partisan, "citizen-driven" re-districting should make 2012 a wild and crazy year for electoral politics, even in the deep blue state of California.

It should also be noted that Cooley received some 300,000 votes more than his party's ill-fated standard bearer, failed gubernatorial candidate ("such a lovely ring to it, dontcha think?" Meg Whitman and 150,000 votes more than that (rhymes with "witch") failed U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina.


It also means that the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General all explicitly support marriage equality and oppose defending Proposition 8 in court. since they believe it is unconstitutional. In fact,  I would wager every single statewide elected official in California supports marriage equality at this point (since they are all Democrats!) 

Saturday, November 20, 2010

CA-AG: Harris Has Insurmountable Lead of 43,050!


Kamala Harris now leads Steve Cooley by 43,050 votes (4,291,854 or 46.0% to 4,248,804 or 45.5%). According to the Secretary of State's office (pdf) there are are now 629,634 unprocessed ballots, with 361,588 provisional ballots and 228,854 vote-by-mail ballots. Los Angeles County has the most number of outstanding ballots, left to be counted 93,590 (73,928 of which are provisional). 82% of provisional ballots are usually counted. The thing to note is that Harris won on election day (when provisional ballots are turned in by approximate 3 percentage points and she lost vote-by-mail ballots by 8 percentage points. Of the ballots left to count, Cooley should be expected to have a net gain of 10K-20K votes at most.
(He wins VBM ballots netting approximately 20K votes but loses provisional ballots by 8K votes.)

Basically, we are where we were on election night when Harris had a slim lead but today there are far less votes to be counted, dramatically reducing Cooley's chances of retaking the lead. I'm still slightly worried that the percentage of votes left to be counted consists of less than 20% from Los Angeles County, but Harris won other relatively large counties by good margins as well. Also, there are some indications that the unprocessed ballot number is too high, making things even tougher for Cooley.

It is mathematically possible for Cooley to win but the probabilities are in the 1-2% range (he would have to win the outstanding ballots at net rates of 7-8% which the rest of the sample simply does not reflect). Los Angeles County Council President Eric Garcetti (and former Occidental College professor) called the race for Harris yesterday and urged media outlets to do the math to show how slim the possibility of Cooley winning actually is. Garcetti actually estimates that there are far LESS uncounted votes than in the unprocessed ballot status page since some of the counties have not updated their numbers in over two weeks and the total vote count is approaching 9.6 million. We'll probably hit 10 million votes cast statewide by the time everything is counted and certified next month.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

CA-AG: Harris Regains Lead From Cooley


In the insanely close race for Attorney General of California, San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris has regained the lead from Los Angeles District Attorney Steve Cooley after trailing for most of the last week a (wait for it!) 14,043 votes out of nearly 9 million votes cast (4,083,742 to 4,069,699 with another 750k to "minor party" candidates).

However, the remaining votes to be counted are almost entirely provisional ballots which were cast on the day of the election, where Harris is estimated to have outpolled Cooley by 3 percentage points. It is becoming increasingly likely that Harris will be the first Black woman to be California Attorney General and the first Black person to be elected statewide in over 3 decades!

Saturday, November 13, 2010

SD-28: Ted Lieu Announces Run For Oropeza's Seat



Assemblymember Ted Lieu has announced his plans to run for the late Jenny Oropeza's State Senate seat in the 28th District. Sadly, Oropeza died on October 22, but was re-elected posthumously in the statewide general election on Tuesday November 1st.

Lieu currently represents the 53rd Assembly district, but will lose his seat on December 6th when Betsy Butler is sworn in to represent the South Bay-area district because Lieu decided to run for Attorney General this Spring since he was forced to leave the Assembly due to term limits. He lost in the Democratic primary in June 2010 to Kamala Harris, who is still in a too-close-to-call race with Republican Steve Cooley to be California's next Attorney General.

Another person who lost in the June 2010 Democratic primary, this time in the Lieutenant Governor's race (to Gavin Newsom) was Janice Hahn, who announced today that she would not run in the special election and endorsed Lieu. Another perso who may announce  a bid for the seat is Warren Furutani who represents the 55th Assembly district which covers part of the 24th Senate District. Furutani was able to win the 55th Assembly district when Laura Richardson gave it up to run against Oropeza in an August 2007 special election when Congresswoman Janice Millender-McDonald's 37th Congressional district opened up due to her untimely death. Richardson won that race and now represents CA-37.

Of course all these district lines will become open seats in the next election in 2012 when the lines are redrawn, thanks to Proposition 11 and Proposition 20 by an independent "citizen's" redistricting commission with data from the 2010 Census.

Saturday, November 06, 2010

CA-AG: Cooley Pulls Ahead Of Harris In Latest Vote Tally

With the vote totals updated on Friday afternoon, Republican Steve Cooley has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris for the first time in the post-election day tallies and currently leads by 22,817 votes.
Steve Cooley (Rep)     3,518,918 46.0%
Kamala D. Harris (Dem)     3,496,101 45.7%
Diane Beall Templin (AI)    133,186 1.7%
Peter Allen (Grn)     195,921 2.5%
Timothy J. Hannan (Lib)     192,018 2.5%
Robert J. Evans (P&F)     123,197 1.6%

Hopefully this does not include a large percentage of Los Angeles County ballots or else things would look  very bad indeed for Ms. Harris to become the next Attorney General of California.

With estimates of more than 2 million outstanding ballots to be counted and Cooley's campaign claiming there are more outstanding ballots in the 40 counties he won than the 18 Harris carried this result is really too close to call. With that many ballots, one probably has to give the edge to Cooley.

Thursday, November 04, 2010

CA-AG: Harris Lead Now Down To 4 Digits

In the down-to-the-wire election for California Attorney General ,Kamala Harris's slim lead over Steve Cooley has been significantly reduced to 9,364 (out of over 7 million total) as numbers come in around the state, although the campaign is still expressing confidence since there are nearly one million outstanding ballots, most of which were cast within the last few days of the election when Harris was clearly leading. (In order to have a lead now, Harris must have received more votes on Election Day itself, and historically absentee and provisional votes follow the pattern of election day ballots.)

The latest tally is:


CandidateVotesPercent
Kamala D. Harris (Dem)             3,307,599
45.9%
Steve Cooley (Rep)3,298,235
45.8%
Diane Beall Templin (AI)125,507
1.7%
Peter Allen (Grn)185,729
2.5%
Timothy J. Hannan (Lib)180,682
2.5%
Robert J. Evans (P&F)117,303
1.6%

I am still relatively confident that Harris will win, but it's gnna be a squeaker. It may even involve a recount!

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Kamala Harris Now Holds Slim Lead Before Absentees Counted

San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris


The latest numbers (100% of precincts counted) from the Secretary of State Debra Bowen (who was re-elected last night) show that San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris has a pretty good chance to become the first female attorney general of California:


Kamala D. Harris    DEM 3,292,836    45.9%
Steve Cooley        REP 3,277,998    45.7%
Timothy J. Hannan   LIB 179,594      2.5%
Peter Allen         GRN 184,841      2.6%
Diane Beall Templin AI 124,841       1.7%
Robert J. Evans     PF 116,690       1.6%

That's a lead of 14,838 votes. There are still absentee ballots and provisional ballots outstanding. Absentee tend to be more conservative than the electorate while provisional can be either liberal or conservative, so basically all we can say is that Harris has done amazingly well in her first statewide race for office. Even if she loses the race, maybe she should consider running for Dianne Feinstein's U.S. Senate seat in 2012?

UPDATE 11/03/2010 4:37PM
The Registrar Recorder/County Clerk of Los Angeles County is reporting that it has some 399,960 votes to be counted. Assuming that Harris maintains her 53%-39% edge in these Los Angeles County ballots, then this should results in at least an increase in Harris' lead of 50,000 votes (assuming a 12-13 point lead for Harris in these ballots). I think we can safely say that Harris has pulled this one out. In the rest of the counties there are probably no more than 800,000-1,200,000 votes to be counted, since Los Angeles generally has about 1/3-1/4 of all votes cast statewide. Cooley would have to win all those non-LA County ballots by a greater margin than 53-47 (or 6 percentage points more than Harris) assuming there are 1.2 million ballots outstanding, and would have to win by a margin greater than 54-46 (or 8 percentage points greater than Harris) if there are only 800,000 non-LA ballots outstanding to be counted. Both scenarios seem to me to give Cooley a very unlikely chance of winning. Of course it's possible, but not very probable, that the outstanding ballots could have an overwhelmingly different character than all other ballots and be very pro-Cooley but that's a very low probability possibility. Congrats to Attorney-General-elect Kamala Harris!

Iowa Rejects 3 Supreme Court Justices Who Legalized Marriage Equality

This is a heartbreaking loss for the LGBT side and supporters of an independent judiciary. After the National Organization of Marriage spent hundreds of thousands of dollars, three Justices of the 7-member Iowa Supreme Court who supported last year's unanimous Varnum v. Brien decision legalizing marriage equality have been voted out of office by Iowa voters.

A joint statement from the judges:
It was our great privilege to serve the people of Iowa for many years. Throughout our judicial service we endeavored to serve the people of Iowa by always adhering to the rule of law, making decisions fairly and impartially according to the law, and faithfully upholding the constitution.
We wish to thank all of the Iowans who voted to retain us for another term. Your support shows that many Iowans value fair and impartial courts. We also want to acknowledge and thank all the Iowans, from across the political spectrum and from different walks of life, who worked tirelessly over the past few months to defend Iowa's high-caliber court system against an unprecedented attack by out-of-state special interest groups.
Finally, we hope Iowans will continue to support Iowa's merit selection system for appointing judges. This system helps ensure that judges base their decisions on the law and the Constitution and nothing else. Ultimately, however, the preservation of our state's fair and impartial courts will require more than the integrity and fortitude of individual judges, it will require the steadfast support of the people.
Chief Justice Marsha Ternus
Associate Justice Michael Streit
Associate Justice David Baker
Very sad news.

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