BOOK REVIEW: Exiles (Aaron Falk, #3) by Jane Harper

Exiles is the third (and final?) book in the police procedural series set in rural Australia featuring federal tax investigator Aaron Falk written by Jane Harper. The other books in the Falk series are The Dry (2016) and Force of Nature (2017). Harper is well-known for her suspenseful, lyrical mystery novels and Exiles (2023) is another example of this.

This time the main mystery is the disappearance of a 39-year-old new mother from a food and wine festival being held in a small rural (fictional) town named Marralee in the Australian wine country in Victoria. The missing woman is Kim Gillespie, the ex-wife of Charlie Raco, who is the brother of Aaron’s friend Greg Raco, another Australian cop who we were introduced to in Force of Nature. Aaron had been named godfather to Greg and Rita’s newborn kid Henry and was in town for the christening the very day Kim disappeared. He was at the Raco home when Kim called Zara, the 17-year-old daughter she had with Charlie to discuss how they would meet up at the Maralee festival.

All this information is provided in the prologue. When the story begins it's one year later and Aaron is driving to Marralee again to finally participate in the long-delayed christening of his godson, Henry Raco. We learn how the family members have been affected by Kim’s disappearance, and we get introduced to Kim’s husband, Rohan and his and Kim’s daughter. We also learn that Kim’s disappearance is not the only violent crime that the small town of Marralee has known. About five years ago there was a hit-and-run very near the site of the Festival, again during opening weekend (which is when Kim disappeared) that resulted in the death of Dean Tozer, the husband of Gemma Tozer and father of Joel. Joel and Kara are now teenage friends, bonded together through the loss of their parents.

One key aspect of Harper’s mysteries that makes them so compelling is that she uses her books to comment on and depict contemporary Australian life and the social problems that are lying below the surface. For example, in Exiles drinking alcohol by teenagers and the dangerous behaviors this can facilitate animates multiple important plot points. Ultimately, I would say that Exiles is about solitude, and the consequences of cutting oneself off (or being cut off by the actions of others) from the people around you that know you the best. (The book makes clear that in some cases this could be your family or your chosen family and doesn’t communicate any value judgments on the difference between them.)

Another key aspect of Harper’s mysteries, at least the ones that I have read that feature Aaron Falk, have been the internal dialogue of the protagonist. I wasn’t really that impressed with, or frankly very interested in, Falk’s inner life or personality in the first two books, The Dry and Forces of Nature, but in Exiles I really enjoyed getting to know him better. I’m not exactly sure why that is, but it could be that in addition to the career wanderlust that is a recurring theme in all three books, in Exiles he is also pursuing a romantic relationship. As a gay man reading about a straight male character (written by a presumably straight woman) falling in love, I was surprised at how much I was invested in the resolution of this storyline.

Overall, Exiles is (by far!) the best of the Aaron Falk books written by Jane Harper. It is billed as the last in a trilogy of books but I hope that is not the case, I would love to spend more time in rural Australia with Falk as he solves crimes. But even if Harper doesn’t write more books featuring Falk I am confident she will write more compelling mysteries set in rural Australia in the future.

Title: Exiles (Aaron Falk, #3).
Author: Jane Harper.
Format: Kindle.
Length: 353 pages.
Publisher: Orbit Books.
Date Published: May 26, 2022.
Date Read: May 22, 2023.

GOODREADS RATING: ★★★★½☆  (4.5/5.0).

OVERALL GRADE: A/A- (3.83/4.0).

PLOT: A.
IMAGERY: A-.
IMPACT: A-.
WRITING: A.

BOOK REVIEW:The Island by Adrian McKinty

The Island is the latest blockbuster suspense thriller from Adrian McKinty, the author of the best-selling The Chain  and six well-regarded police procedurals with titles based off of Tom Waits lyrics set in Northern Ireland during “The Troubles” era featuring a Protestant cop named Sean Duffy. The Chain is well-known for its killer premise, addictive pacing and plot twists; The Island shares several of these attributes.
The premise of The Island is apparently sourced from an actual incident experienced by McKinty that didn’t go as wildly wrong as what happens in the book: a car accident on a private island a short ferry trip from a major city (Melbourne in this case) where a single family has controlled life (and death) for multiple generations. In McKinty’s real-life version the accident was avoided and no one was harmed, but in the version in The Island a young deaf woman rides her bike suddenly into an oncoming car carrying a vacationing American family of four (a 40-something doctor named Tom, his 20-something second wife Heather and two kids, Olivia, 14 and Owen, 12). The parents, make the fateful decision to leave the scene of the accident in the hope they can resolve whatever consequences occur from the comfort and safety of the mainland. This turns out to be a spectacular bad choice that results in multiple violent deaths.

The Island turns into a suspenseful story of survival as the wife and kids are separated from their husband and father and are literally hunted by the few dozen inhabitants of the island. In such an extreme situation, everyone involved is forced to identify their limits and go beyond them in different ways. Olivia and Owen are recovering from the death of their mom, Tom's first wife and are resentful of Heather, who is much closer to their age then she is to their parents. Heather is still getting used to the idea of being responsible for two teenaged kids at the age of 24 and getting to know her new husband who views the world substantially differently from his perch of privilege and experience. That these emotional undercurrents have to be navigated and resolved while they are trying to escape a life-and-death situation on Dutch Island are the primary narrative fuel of The Island.

McKinty does many things quite well in The IslandFirst, he successfully gets the reader to invest in the fate of the characters. He provides the reader with the internal thoughts of multiple characters and uses this mechanism to help the reader connect emotionally with them, especially Heather. Second, he writes action scenes incredibly compellingly, and there is a LOT of action (and violence) in The Island. Third, he is not afraid to have real consequences for the characters for the decisions they make. Because, there are serious (and life-changing) injuries inflicted on multiple characters, this raises the stakes for the reader in speculating about the possible fates for the character or characters we are invested in knowing what happens to in the end.
That’s not to say The Island is not without flaws. It is so obvious about its intent to be breathlessly suspenseful that at times the plot becomes wildly unrealistic and shamelessly manipulative. But once the reader gives into the breakneck pace of the plot and accepts that The Island is going to be a roller-coaster, the book is an enjoyable bit of fluff (and its quite a quick read at 384 pages).

Apparently The Island is being made into a streaming “television” series for Hulu, which I think will work well. I could see it turned into an addictive suspense drama like Fox’s 24 where every hour/episode ends with a cliffhanger.

Overall, I would recommend The Island to anyone who read and enjoyed The Chain (which according to sales figures, critical acclaim and social media buzz, is a LOT of people!).

Title: The Island
Author: Adrian Mckinty.
Format: Hardcover.
Length: 384 pages.
Publisher: Little, Brown.
Date Published: May 17, 2022.
Date Read: November 18, 2022.

GOODREADS RATING: ★★★½☆  (3.5/5.0).

OVERALL GRADE: A- (3.67/4.0).

PLOT: A-.
IMAGERY: B+.
IMPACT: A-.
WRITING: A.

TENNIS TUESDAY: France Wins Fed Cup Merci A Kiki; Zverev, Thiem and Tsistipas Get Surprising Wins at #ATPFinals

KIKI STEALS THE SHOW AS FRANCE WINS FED CUP IN PERTH

Much to the surprise of many observers, France defeated Australia in the Davis Cup Final held in Perth, Australia last weekend. After the first two matches were 6-1 6-1 France (Kiki Mladenovic d. Ajla Tomljanovic) and 6-0 6-0 Australia (Ash Barty d. Caroline Garcia), most people expected the World #1 to lead her team to their first Fed Cup in 45 years. But after leading 6-2 against Mladenovic Barty's game went off and eventually she lost in a 3rd set tie-break. Amazingly, Tomljanovic was able to win her match to even the tie at 2-all but then Garcia and Mladenovic teamed up to win the decisive doubles tie against Barty and Samantha Stosur and victory for France.

SOME SURPRISING RESULTS AT THE 2019 ATP YEAR END CHAMPIONSHIPS

The ATP Year-End Championship is happening now in London. Currently called the Nitto ATP Finals, it will be moving to Turin, Italy in 2020. Although it started off slowly, there have been some surprising results. Dominic Thiem has defeated Roger Federer for the third time this year. He followed up that win with a 3rd set tiebreak victory over Novak Djokovic which many people are calling the best 3-set men's match of the year. However, in the even more surprising results section is the fact that both Alexander Zverev and Stefans Tsitsipas defeated players whom they had 0-5 head-to-head records against in straight sets. Zverev defeated World #1 Rafael Nadal and Tsitsipas defeated Daniil Medvedev.

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Barty Wins First Major Title, Reaches World #2

As I predicted, #8 seed Ash Barty, 23, defeated Czech lefty Marketa Vondrousova, 19, in the final of the 2019 French Open, 6-1 6-3. Barty's win means that her new ranking will be World #2 on Monday. In fact, she will be less than 200 points behind World #1 Naomi Osaka who has won the two previous majors (2019 Australian Open and 2018 U.S. Open).

In the final, Barty was quickly up a set and a break (6-1, 2-0) and unlike the last two women who were in that situation in the Roland Garros final (Simona Halep in 2017 and Sloane Stephens in 2018), Barty did not falter and went on to win the title, instead of losing in three sets.

Barty had never passed the second round in her five previous appearances before this year. By winning the major she became Australian's latest major champion after a gap of 8 years (2011 US Open) and her ascent to World #2 is the first time an Aussie woman had been ranked that high since 1976.

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Aussie Rugby Star Dismissed Over Religious-Based Homophobic Comments

Israel Folau, a star rugby player in Australia has repeatedly made multiple homophobic comments on social media that are religious-based (they usually involve a statement that "homosexuals" will go to hell if they do not "repent" or "God's plan for homosexuals was hell"). Interestingly, Rugby Australia has announced that it intends to cancel his lucrative playing contract for violations of its "code of conduct":

“At its core, this is an issue of the responsibilities an employee owes to their employer and the commitments they make to their employer to abide by their employer’s policies and procedures and adhere to their employer’s values. 

“Following the events of last year, Israel was warned formally and repeatedly about the expectations of him as player for the Wallabies and NSW Waratahs with regards to social media use and he has failed to meet those obligations. It was made clear to him that any social media posts or commentary that is in any way disrespectful to people because of their sexuality will result in disciplinary action. 

“All professional Rugby players in Australia are bound by the Code of Conduct and there is a process in place for any disciplinary matter. We appreciate that this particular matter will attract significant interest, but due process must be followed.”

The Rugby Australia code of conduct includes a provision that prohibits denigrating people on social media based on their "gender, gender identity or sexual orientation" so I presume this is one reason for the dismissal. Folau has announced that he is appealing his loss of a $4m contract so the controversy may continue for quite awhile.

Curious how different people can read the same religious text and come to completely different conclusions about whether it endorses anti-LGBT views. It's almost like the text is just a pretext for beliefs and ideas they had anyway and wanted a reason to express.

BOOK REVIEW: Force of Nature (Aaron Falk, #2) by Jane Harper

Force of Nature is an interesting psychological thriller based around familial and work relationships and the feelings, slights and resentments that can result. The basic facts are that five women (2 of whom are sisters, 2 of whom went to school together and all of whom work together at a private financial services firm) go on a 3-day hike in a remote national park and one of them (the pretty, obnoxious, “most successful” one) doesn’t make it out (alive). Overall rating: 3.5 Stars.

Force of Nature is the second book by Australian author Jane Harper featuring Aaron Falk, an officer of the Australian Federal Police (I guess the Aussie version of the United States’ FBI) specializing in financial crimes. Harper's first book, The Dry, was a sensation, and ended up winning the prestigious Gold Dagger award from the Crime Writers of America. It tells the story of what happens when Aaron goes back to his hometown after his childhood best friend’s entire family is gunned down in a deserted town in the middle of nowhere.

In my opinion, Force of Nature is a more interesting book than The Dry, but that’s not because of Aaron Falk, it’s due to the power of the mystery and suspense of the central question of “what happened between these women in the park?” It turns out that Alice Russell, the woman who does not make it out of the park with her co-workers, was acting as a confidential informer to Aaron and the AFP as they tried to build a substantial money laundering case against the employer of the women on the hike. Aaron and his partner go up to the park when news reaches them that Alice is missing to try and see if they can discover if her disappearance is linked to their investigation of her bosses. It turns out that the reason for her death is something much closer to home.

To me, there’s a fundamental flaw in Harper’s choice of protagonist for her mystery series. Falk is simply not that interesting a character. He’s almost nondescript. It’s really a testament to Harper’s writing and plotting that both books she has written so far, especially the second one, are captivating thrillers. Part of this is the exotic nature of their setting (Down Under) where in both books Harper takes full advantage of the lay of the land to enthrall the reader. I hope that the author takes a page out of Tana French’s Dublin Murder Squad books and considers having other main characters in subsequent books. Or she could keep on using Falk as the ostensible protagonist of the books but then also depict the other characters in a more compelling and complex way as she does in Force of Nature.

Title: Force of Nature (Aaron Falk, #2).
Author: Jane Harper.
Paperback: 272 pages.
Publisher: Flatiron Books.
Date Published: February 26, 2018.
Date Read: June 29, 2018.

GOODREADS RATING: ★★★★☆  (4.0/5.0).

OVERALL GRADE: A- (3.67/4.0).

PLOT: A-.
IMAGERY: A-.
IMPACT: B+.
WRITING: A.

2018 AUS OPEN: Federer Wins 20th(!) Major Title, Record 6th #AusOpen

As I predicted, Roger Federer won his record 20th major singles title, defeating Marin Cilic 6-2 6-7(5) 6-3 3-6 6-1 in the Australian Open final. Federer becomes the first man to reach 20 major singles title, following Margaret Court (24), Serena Williams (23) and Steffi Graf (22). His win also means he is in a tie with Novak Djokovic and Roy Emerson for the most Australian Open titles (6). He has won 20 major titles while playing in 30 major finals (both are records). 2018 is the 50th anniversary of the beginning of Open Era tennis and 200 major tournaments have been played, so Federer has appeared in 15% of those finals and won 10% of them. That's an insane number. The last 5 major championships have now been won by either Federer or Rafael Nadal and it is better than even money that Nadal will win his 11th French Open title this year to make it 6 in a row.

Federer is still at #2 on the list of singles titles won with 96, just 13 behind the top position of 109 held by Jimmy Connors. Can he win 13 more titles before he retires? I wouldn't put it past him!

MEN'S FINAL REVIEW

Despite the fact that the men's final started at 3:30am I set my alarm and woke up to watch the match live. The match began as well as it possible could have for Roger Federer as he went up a double-break hold (4-0) and eventually won the first set in 24 minutes. However, the second set was much closer as Cilic started making fewer errors and more winners. Federer's serve was a key factor to him staying in the match to weather the periods in which he was being outplayed by Cilic, and he ended up hitting more aces than his 6-foot-6" opponent. In the tiebreak Federer earned a minibreak first but immediately lost it when Cilic hit a service return winner to even the breaker at 3-all. Then Cicil earned a minibreak and closed out the set with an easy overhead smash. In the third set Federer got an early break and maintained his serve to nurse the lead to 6-3 and a 2-1 set lead. Then he got another early break in the 4th set and at 3-1 it seemed the match would be over soon. For some reason he completely lost the rhythm on his serve (his first serve percentage in the 4th set ended up being 36%!) and ended up losing 5 consecutive games to lose the 4th set 3-6. The fifth set started well, as Federer went up 40-15 in his first service game but then had to save another 3 breakpoints to hold serve. As often happens, Cilic found himself in trouble on his serve after failing to win breakpoints the game before and went do 3-0 in the final set. They both held and then while serving down 1-4 Cilic made multiple backhand errors and got broken to go down 5-1. Federer easily held serve, hitting a kick second serve on championship that just kissed the sideline leading to a return error by Cilic. Aftr a challenge confirmed the serve was n, the match was over!

2018 AUS OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [2]

Here are my predictions for the 2018 Australian Open women's final. Last year I correctly predicted Serena Williams would beat Venus Williams in the women's final and also coreectly predicted  1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. This year I predicted correctly 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men''s semifinals, 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. 

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] d. Angelique Kerber [21] (GER) 6-3 4-6 9-7.  As expected this was an absolute corker of a match and met the heightened expectations after both Kerber and Halep defeated hard-hitting opponents in their respective quarterfinals against Karolina Pliskova and Madison Keys, respectively. Halep started off quite strong, racing to a 5-0 lead but then faltered when serving for the set and let Kerber get back to 5-3 but then won the set 6-3. Again in the second set Halep was up a break at 3-1 but then Kerber got it back to 3-all and eventually won the set 6-4. The deciding set Halep had match points at 4-5, 15-40  with Kerber serving but then had to save match points herself when Kerber served at 6-5, 40-15. Eventually, Halep broke in the sixteenth game to win the decider 9-7. The match featured extremely high-quality play on both sides of the net and included several incredible, gut-busting rallies of length in the 20-shot range.

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [2] d. Elise Mertens (BEL) [16] 6-3 7-6(2).  This was a closer match than anyone expected but as expected Wozniacki was able to beat the unheralded Belgian player in a pretty routine fashion. There were none of the lapses or streaks which Wozniacki has had in other matches here in Melbourne, like in her quarterfinal which she won 6-0, 7-6(3), 6-2 with Carla Suarez Navarro saving match points in the second set but then going away in the third. Mertens put up a more consistent defense but it was not enough to deny Wozniacki the win.


WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW
As with most major finals, this will be a historic match. But this will make a bit more history than most. It is a rare showdown between the World #1 and World #2 in a major final and the winner of the match will be #1 after the tournament.  (The last time that happened was when #1 Serena Williams beat #2 Maria Sharapova in 2015.) This is also the first time that both players have saved match points en route to a major final, and Halep has done it in two matches (against Kerber in the semifinals and against Davis in the 3rd round while Wozniacki did it against Fett in the 2nd round.) This is also the 3rd time in the last four slams to be contested between first-time Slam winners (2017 French Open final where Jelena Ostapenko d. Halep and 2017 U.S. Open final Sloane Stephens d. Keys). This is Wozniacki's 43rd major championship appearance (only Jana Novotna, Marion Bartoli and Flavia Pennetta had more appearances before winning their first major). It is Halep's 31st appearance. Interestingly, they are both playing in their 3rd major final.

If Wozniacki wins the championship and thus gets to #1, that will be the largest gap in times at #1 in the history of the WTA tour (almost exactly 6 years, surpassing Serena's record of 5-plus years).  Head to head some may be surprised to discover that Wozniacki holds a 4-2 lead, and has won their last 3 matches, including a 6-0 6-2 drubbing at the 2017 WTA Tour finals. However, Halep leads 2-1 in their outdoor hard-courts. and the two have never contested a final.

I think this will probably be an even better match than the Halep-Kerber match, but I think it is also very likely that nerves will play a significant role, more so for Wozniacki, who has not been in a major final since the 2014 U.S. Open, where she lost to Serena. Her previous appearance was the 2009 U.S. Open final against Kim Clijsters. Neither of those matches did anyone give her a decent shot at winning, while in this final with Halep, she knows she can win and she also knows this may not have any more chances at winning that elusive major after this chance, especially with Serena's imminent return. I believe Halep will have learned from her play against Ostapenko where she lost a match up a set and  a break and will be the aggressor again, against a  Wozniacki who will be playing more aggressive than usual but whose natural instinct is to be a counterpuncher. Regardless, I will be happy with whomever wins, but I think it will be the World #1.

MadProfessah's prediction: Halep.

2018 AUS OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview and Predictions

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2018 Australian Open. Last year I did not predict the quarterfinals but correctly predicted 1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. This year I predicted correctly 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I have also predicted the men's semifinals.

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs. Angelique Kerber [21] (GER). Halep has already played the match of the tournament by surviving a 3 hours 44 minute tussle with American Lauren Davis in the third round, while Kerber is looking like she has been able to capture the form that allowed her to beat Serena Williams in the final here two years ago. They both got here by dispatching two tall, hard-hitting opponents. Halep went down 0-3 (and breakpoint) against Karolina Pliskova in the quarterfinal but then won 12 of the next 14 games to sweep the Czech player 6-3 6-2. Halep was even more dominant against 2017 US Open finalist Madison Keys with a 6-1 6-2 win. These two have a head-to-head tied at 4-all but they did not meet at all in 2017 where Halep had her #1 ranking performance. They met 5 times in 2016 when Kerber was winning 2 majors and ended the year #1 and Kerber won 4 of those matches. This will almost certainly not be a straight sets sweep by one player; if it is not a 3-set, 3-hour war of attrition of shotmaking and indefatigable ball retrieving many will be quite disappointed. I think this is basically a tossup but I think I will go with Halep because I think the fact that she is ranked World #1 now and has already saved match point(s) in this tournament will give her the confidence to persevere even when things get tight and grim. PREDICTION: Halep.

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [2] vs. Elise Mertens (BEL) [16] Elina Svitolina (UKR) [4].   Elina Svitolina again showed she has some steps to go before her success on the WTA tour translates to meaningful success in the biggest stages of the game, in the majors. She has previously easily beaten Elise Mertens in a clay court final last year, but in a major quarterfinal in Melbourne she managed to win only 4 games and suffered a 2nd set bagel. Bizarrely, her opponent in the semifinal, Caroline Wozniacki started by giving her quarterfinal opponent, Carla Suarez Navarro a bagel in the first set and blew a matchpoint in the second set which she lost in a tiebreak. Most other players that might signal a meltdown in the third set but the Wozniacki just got back to work and easily won the deciding set 6-2. Wozniacki has only ever reached major finals in New York City but I believe that is about to change as she rides the confidence of surviving matchpoint down in the 2nd round and the absence of Serena Williams from the women's game to (perhaps) win her first major title. PREDICTION: Wozniacki. 

GOOD NEWS! Australia Plebiscite Shows 61.6% Support Marriage Equality

The results of the months-long mail-in plebiscite on marriage equality in Australia were released yesterday and show that a vast majority of the country supports marriage equality down under!

The New York Times reports:

MELBOURNE, Australia — A solid majority of Australians voted in favor of same-sex marriage in a historic survey that, while not binding, paves the way for Parliament to legally recognize the unions of gay and lesbian couples. 

Of 12.7 million Australians who took part in the government survey, 61.6 percent voted yes and 38.4 percent voted no, officials announced on Wednesday morning. Participation was high, with 79.5 percent of voting-age Australians sending back their postal ballots. 

“The Australian people have spoken, and they have voted overwhelmingly ‘yes’ for marriage equality,” said Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who called the survey in a move described by advocates as a delay tactic devised to appease his party’s far-right faction. “They voted ‘yes’ for fairness, they voted ‘yes’ for commitment, they voted ‘yes’ for love.” 

The high turnout and unequivocal result amounted to a rebuke for Australia’s most conservative politicians, many of whom saw a majority of their constituents vote to support same-sex marriage despite their arguments against it.

Woo hoo! I think it may be time to plan a return trip to Oz in 2018!

BOOK REVIEW: The Dry by Jane Harper

The Dry is the celebrated debut mystery novel by Jane Harper which won the Gold Dagger Award for best mystery novel of 2016 recently. This puts Harper in territory with other impressive writers in this genre whose work I have enjoyed (Val McDermid, Henning Mankell and Patricia Cornwell). Sadly, other favorites like Tana French, Stuart MacBride, Ian Rankin and Adrian McKinty have not done so (yet!)

I think The Dry is quite good, and somewhat reminiscent of another widely celebrated debut mystery, In The Woods (2010) by Tana French. The writing is similarly sumptuous and the story is bolstered by the strength of the characters and the description of the deep emotional ties that link them and strengthen the impact of the book on the reader.

In The Dry, there are two mysteries at the heart of the plot. Who brutally shot and killed Aaron Falk's former childhood best friend Luke Hadler along with Hadler's wife and son with a shotgun at close range? Does it have to do with the fact that 20-something years ago Luke lied to give his best friend an alibi for the mysterious death of their common friend Ellie Deacon who was at the apex of a complicated teen love triangle involving the two friends? Again this plot is reminiscent of French's debut where the main character is trying to solve a disappearance/murder of a child decades after he survived the murder/abduction of himself and his best friends. In Aaron's case, despite Luke's alibi the suspicion about his involvement in Ellie's death has hung over his head for years, especially since soon afterwards he and his dad were essentially run out of their small town by Ellie's dad, the town's most prominent citizen.

Despite winning the Gold Dagger I disagree that Harper's The Dry, is as devastatingly good a work of fiction as French's In The Woods. This doesn't mean Harper shouldn't have won the Gold Dagger, it is really a complaint that French has not won yet, and that she should have won for her debut as well. 

Anyway one reason I think Harper's debut is inferior to French's is that there are definitely flaws in The Dry. For example, there are several aspects of the story which are easy to figure out, and the revelation of the killer of Luke and his family is presented in an almost matter-of-fact fashion after spending a few hundred pages misdirecting the reader with other clues and red herrings. 

Despite its flaws, the book has very strong features as well. First among these is the sense of place in The Dry. It is set in Kiewarra, a very small town in the middle of nowhere in Australia which has been greatly impacted by a long-running drought. Secondly, the main character of Aaron Falk is interesting, and the back story of his life in Kiewarra and the connections he has to almost all the suspects and residents of the town add a frisson to the work.

Overall, I would agree that The Dry is an impressive debut but I would hesitate to declare this the best mystery I have read this year. However, I will definitely look forward to spending time with Aaron Falk, wherever his next (mis)adventure takes him. The second book, Force of Nature, should be out early in 2018.

Title: The Dry.
Author: Jane Harper.
Paperback: 336 pages.
Publisher: Flatiron Books.
Date Published: January 10, 2017.
Date Read: October 28, 2017.

GOODREADS RATING: ★★★★ (4.0/5.0).

OVERALL GRADE: A- (3.67/4.0).

PLOT: B.
IMAGERY: A-.
IMPACT: A.
WRITING: A.

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Australians Becoming Much More Godless!

There's some interesting news out of Australia and the changing (decreasing) prevalence of religiosity among their populace. They conduct a census every 5 years and one of the questions they ask is about religion.

The 2016 results were published this week:

After decades of rapid growth, the number of Australians marking “no religion” on their census forms has for the first time surpassed Catholicism as the most common answer to a prompt in the country's 2016 Census about religion, according to data released Monday. If all Christian denominations are considered together, they would make up just over half of respondents. 

The number of respondents who identified as nonreligious — 30.1 percent — almost doubled from 15.5 percent in 2001. Less than 1 percent identified that way in 1966, the year Australia lifted its “White Australia Policy,” which opened up immigration to non-Europeans and kicked off broader demographic changes. Australia's population has also more than doubled since then.

Hmmm, so we learn several things from this excerpt. First, Australia had a "White Australia Policy" until 1966! Secondly, 30% of Australians identify as essentially irreligious (or "Godless" as we like to say around here). That compares pretty favorably to the rate in the United States, which PRRI estimates to be 25% (in 2016). The following graph also indicates that the growth in the fraction of the population in the United States that is "religiously unaffiliated" has changed dramatically in the last few decades.

Hat/tip to Washington Post and PRRI

QUEER QUOTE: Navratilova Calls Court "Racist" & "Homophobe"

18-time major champion Martina Navratilova is calling out 22-major champion Margaret Court for her rampant homophobia and arguably racist beliefs by writing an open letter calling for a renaming of 'Margaret Court Arena" at the Australian Open in Melbourne. Last week, the 74-year-old Court announced that she was going to boycott Qantas, her country's national airline, because the company had endorsed marriage equality, which is still not the law of the land in Australia, although a heated public policy debate  about the issue has been ongoing for years.

This excerpt from Navratilova's letter is today's Queer Quote:

It is now clear exactly who Court is: an amazing tennis player, and a racist and a homophobe. Her vitriol is not just an opinion. She is actively trying to keep LGBT people from getting equal rights (note to Court: we are human beings, too). She is demonising trans kids and trans adults everywhere. 

And now, linking LGBT to Nazis, communists, the devil? This is not OK. This is in fact sick and it is dangerous. Kids will suffer more because of this continuous bashing and stigmatising of our LGBT community.

Interestingly, the debate over Margaret Court's comments is prompting tennis players to publicly declare where they stand on LGBT equality. ATP World #1 Andy Murray made this remark at the French open this week:

"I don't see why anyone has a problem with two people who love each other getting married. If it's two men, two women, that's great. I don't see why it should matter. It's not anyone else's business."

Now that's a winner, Andy!

2016 AUS OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs.  Angelique Kerber (GER) [7]

The women's final is now set at the 2016 Australian Open. Last year, I correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year, I predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. I have also published a post predicting the men's singles final result.

Women's Semifinals Review: How They Got Here

Serena Williams (USA) [1] d. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) [4] 6-0 6-4. As expected, Serena was not troubled by the wiliness of her Polish opponent and was even inspired to raise her  performance to another level and completely blew away the World #4 seed in the first set. The second set was a bit closer but the result was never really in doubt and now Serena has won all 9 matches she has ever played against Radwanska.

 Angelique Kerber (GER) [7] d. Johanna Konta (GBR) 7-5 6-2. This was the end of an excellent tournament by the Briton who had only been to the 4th round once before (in the previous major) in nine tries. She joins a list of other players who have had breakthroughs into the semifinals in Melbourne (Sloane Stephens in 2013, Genie Bouchard in 2014 and Madison Keys in 2015). Hopefully Konta will have a better post-breakthrough period than those players. For Kerber, her win here is a reward of her increased fitness and recognition of the great progress she has made in the last year and her consistency as a Top 10 player for the last four years. Kerber showed all that in her assured dismantling of her less experienced opponent, allowing her to make far too many mistakes to let the match ever be competitive.

Women's Final Preview: Who Will Win

Kerber and Serena have played 6 times before and Serena leads 5-1 in their head-to-head. However, this means that Kerber does possess a win over Serena (in the 2012 Cincinnati W&S Open) which should do something to calm the nerves of the German player appearing in her first major final and feeling the weight of an entire nation who have been waiting for an heir apparent to the great Steffi Graf. Graf looms large over the match because she is the reason why both players are here. Kerber treats Fraulein Forehand as role model and hopes to follow in her footsteps as a major champion. But Graf is also an inspiration for Serena as well, as she is attempting to match the German's gaudy total of 22 major titles with a 7th major title here in Melbourne to cement her claim to be the greatest player of all time.

Tactically, Kerber is extremely fit and as a lefty, possesses a spin that Serena rarely sees. However, there's a reason why Serena is playing for her 22nd major (21-4). She has only been beaten in a major by three people Venus Williams (twice), Maria Sharapova (2004 Wimbledon) and Samantha Stosur (2011 U.S. Open). Very few players have won their very first major appearance, and it is unlikely indeed that Angie Kerber will join that group.
MadProfessah's pick: Serena in 2 sets.

TENNIS TUESDAY: Venus,Serena,Sharapova,Ivanovic,Halep,Kvitova Start 2016 Badly

The tennis year begins down under and 2016 is not starting well for many of the WTA's top stars. Defending champion Venus Williams lost her first round match against Russian teenager Daria Kasatkina (no I have never heard of her either!) in Auckland, New Zealand. Following the loss of the tournament's #1 seed, it also lost the #2 seed when Ana Ivanovic was upset.

In Perth, after withdrawing from her first tie in the Hopman Cup, World #1 Serena Williams retired after losing the first set against Jarmila Wolfe, citing a left knee injury. Serena insists that she is ready to defend her Australian Open title, however.

In Brisbane, Simona Halep and Maria Sharapova both withdrew, citing injuries, with Halep expressing doubt about being able to play in Sydney and Melbourne later this month.

Petra Kvitova started her year in Shenzhen but she also withdrew (with an illness).

Strangely enough, the men's side of the game is not being impacted as much by withdrawals and injuries.

Roger Federer will begin his 2016 season in Brisbane later today.

2015 AUS OPEN: Djokovic Beats Murray For 8th Major; 5th In Melbourne

Somewhat surprisingly, Novak Djokovic demonstrated (again) his dominance over his friend and rival Andy Murray with a four-set 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0 win in the men's final of the 2015 Australian Open. Djokovic, 27, has now won 8 majors, tying him with other all-time greats like Andre Agassi, Ivan Lendl and Jimmy Connors and moving ahead of John McEnroe. Murray, also 27, has lost 4 finals in Melbourne and 3 overall to Djokovic. The Serbian becomes the first player n the modern era to win 5 Australian Open titles, although he is still one behind Roy Emerson's overall haul of 6.

The first two tiebreak sets took over two-and-a-half hours and featured extended rallies and brilliant shotmaking from both sides of the court. Djokovic struggled with a finger and ankle injury and when Murray went up 2-0 to begin the third set it looked like things might be going his way at last. But Djokovic found another gear and Murray unraveled, losing 12 of the next 13 games, including the last 9, to lose the 3rd and 4th sets 6-3 6-0.

The question for me now is where will both players go from here? Murray is now 2-6 in Major finals and Djokovic is 8-6. They are approximately the same age. Can Djokovic complete the career slam, can Murray win another? I believe the answer to both these questions is yes.

2015 AUS OPEN: Serena Beats Sharapova For 16th Consecutive Time To Win 19th Major

As I predicted yesterday, Serena Williams defeated Maria Sharapova for the 16th match in a row to win her 6th Australian Open and 19th grand slam title, 6-3 7-6(5). This win means that Serena is now only 3 behind Steffi Graf's 22 majors and improves to an incredible 19-4 in major finals and an undefeated 6-0 in Australian Open finals.

For Sharapova, the #2 player in the world it must be frustrating to have had so many opportunities and so many losses in the last 11 years. However, on the bright side, this was one of the Russian's better performances against Serena. It was only the third tiebreak set in 42 sets the two have played against each other, and one of the very few where Serena has failed to break her serve, despite having multiple opportunities, including one at 4-5 that was a Championship point! 

In the second set, Serena started hitting more errors, but also, more aces. In the first set she hit 3 aces and 3 doubles faults, but in the second set she had only one double fault and hit 15 aces (including one on her third championship point, the first on her own serve). At some point in the future (although probably not in a major final) Sharapova will reverse the streak (I think). Another thing Sharapova can look forward to is that she is 5 years younger than Serena and can possibly have success when Serena either exits the stage or her game starts to deteriorate with age.

As for now, though, Serena looks well placed to reach or exceed Graf's 22 majors and possibly even Margaret Court's 24!