SUNDAY POLITICS: Comparing Presidential Approval Rating Variability

Hat/tip Political Wire

SATURDAY POLITICS: Republicans View Things Very Differently Than Democrats and Independents

Of course, for the last week the political world has been buzzing over the march by white supremacists and Nazis in Charlottesville, Virginia and President Trump's widely panned response. However, it should be noted that this negative response to Trump's assigning equal responsibility to white supremacists and those who oppose them for the violence that occurred in Charlottesville (despite the fact that it was an avowed racist who has been arrested and charged with driving the car that killed one of the people protesting the white supremacists) is not universal. 64% of Republicans  agree (with Trump's statements that "both [sides are] equally [to blame]" while 66% of Democrats assign responsibility to the neo-Nazis, anti-semites and white supremacists who marched in Charlottesville.

However, as I have blogged about previously on Saturday Politics Republicans have views about things that are very different from others, such as viewing discrimination against groups differently based on partisan differences as well as which groups suffer more discrimination than others.

Today's blog post is about how Republicans view many institutions (colleges and universities, labor unions, national news media and churches) very differently than others.

MAP: Trump's Approval Rating Varies Greatly By Stae

It is well-known that Donald Trump has historically low approval ratings, especially for a newly elected president. However, what may not be recognized is the geographical variation in his approval ratings. There are 17 states where Trump is above majority support averaged over the first 6 months of his presidency, according to Gallup. There are also 17 states where his approval average is below 40%!

President Donald Trump, who has averaged 40% job approval since his inauguration, received approval ratings of 50% or higher in 17 states in the first half of 2017. Residents in an equal number of states gave him approval ratings below 40%. In 16 states, his ratings ranged between 40% and 49%.

Hat/tip to Axios

SATURDAY POLITICS: Obama (2009) versus Obama (2016)

This is how President Obama has aged between his first press conference in 2009 and the one he gave yesterday (which might be his last as President). Gotta wonder how Donald Trump will look in a few years after he has been president for awhile, huh?

Hat/tip Political Wire

QUEER QUOTE: President-elect Trump Says His Position on Same-Sex Marriage is "Irrelevant"

Today's Queer Quote is from President-elect Donald Trump who  on said in an interview that aired on 60 Minutes last Sunday night that his position on marriage equality is "irrelevant" because the issue is "settled." He might want to alert Vice-President-elect Mike Pence of this public policy position.

This excerpt from the transcript of Trump's remarks regarding marriage equality are our Queer Quote for today:

LESLEY STAHL: Well, I guess the issue for them is marriage equality. Do you support marriage equality?
DONALD TRUMP: It---it's irrelevant because it was already settled. It's law. It was settled in the Supreme Court. I mean it's done.
LESLEY STAHL: So, even if you appoint a judge that---
DONALD TRUMP: It's done.  It -- you have -- these cases have gone to the Supreme Court. They've been settled. And--I'm--I'm fine with that.

The National Organization for Marriage clearly doesn't agree with Trump that this issue is "settled." We shall see!

4 Days After #ElectionDay: Clinton 228, Trump 290. MI(16),NH(4) Uncalled!

It is now 4 days after Election Day and the full results in the presidential election are still not known. Donald Trump is the president-elect of the United States because he has won more vote in enough states to claim more than 270 electoral votes. However, Hillary Clinton now leads by over  600,000 votes in the popular vote total; this is expected to swell to over 1 million by the time California certifies its results in December. Currently, they have only tabulated roughly 9 million votes in a state where 12 million people votes in 2012 and Clinton leads 2-to-1.

Since I blogged last on Wednesday, Arizona (11 electoral votes) was called definitively for Trump on Friday even though he won there relatively handily 49-44 in what used to be thought of as a non-swing state. In Michigan, Trump leads by roughly 13,000 votes out of 4.7 million votes cast. In New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) Clinton, is ahead by a narrow total of 2528 votes out of 700,000 cast. The U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire (which, at an estimated total of $100 million spent, was the most expensive of the year) was decided in Governor Maggie Hassan's favor over incumbent Kelly Ayotte by a mere 743 votes! Ayotte has surprisingly conceded the race without requesting a recount.

Stay tuned!

2016 ELECTION: Trump 279, Clinton 228. AZ(11),MI(16),NH(4) Uncalled

Donald Trump was elected 45th President of the United States  last night this morning when Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were called for the GOP candidate, eliminating Hillary Clinton's path to 270 electoral votes, as Trump surpassed that threshold.. Like in 2000, the Democratic candidate will win the popular vote, but lose in the electoral college. The 27 electoral votes of Arizona (11) and Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4) are still close to call but Trump is leading there. He also won a rare electoral college vote in the North East by wining Maine's 2nd congressional district.

Today is #ElectionDay! Clinton 0.716, Trump 0.284

Today is (finally!) election day in America. The final 538.com election prediction has a 71.6% chance of winning for Clinton-Kaine and a 28.4% chance of winning for Trump-Pence. This is slightly up from previous days in the last week, when 3 days ago Trump's chances of becoming president were just above 35%. All will be revealed tonight!

1 Day Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.658, Trump 0.342

Tomorrow is Election Day! With 1 day of the 2016 presidential race remaining, Clinton-Kaine have a 65.8% chance of winning, while Trump-Pence have a 34.2% chance of success, according to 538.com.

2 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.649, Trump 0.35

Today's snapshot of the 538.com probability of who will win the election on Tuesday November 8th is being posted late because I travelled from Los Angeles to Washington, D.C. The current numbers are Clinton-Kaine 64.9% and Trump-Pence 35%, which are essentially unchanged from yesterday but very different from what they were 2 weeks ago.

3 Days Until #ElectionDay : Clinton 0.647, Trump 0.352

4 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.684, Trump 0.315

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

5 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.669, Trump 0.331

Source: FiveThirtyeight.com

6 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.707, Trump 0.292

Source: FiveThrtyEight.com

1 Week Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.738, Trump 0.262

The 2016 presidential election is just one week (7 days!) away. The 538.com forecast shows a significant movement towards the Trump-Pence ticket from last week's numbers. Right now, Clinton-Kaine has a 73.8% chance of winning the presidency, while Trump-Pence is 26.2% (which is up from last week's 13.8%).

2 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.861, Trump 0.138

There are only 2 weeks left (14 days!) before the 2016 Presidential Election will be determined on November 8. This week, the 538.com forecast has Clinton-Kaine ticket has an 86.1% chance of winning, with Trump-Pence having a 13.8% chance of winning. This is slightly changed from last week's probabilities (88.2% Clinton-Trump, 11.8% Trump-Pence).

3 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.882, Trump 0.118

The probabilities in the 2016 presidential race have moved sharply in favor of the Clinton-Kaine ticket in the last week. With just 21 days (3 weeks) before election day, the latest numbers from FiveThirtyEight.com show a 0.882 probability America will elect its first female president, with just a 0.112 chance Donald Trump will win his first elected office on November 8th. Last week, the probabilities were 0.84 Clinton, 0.16 Trump. Since i began blogging about the data, the probabilities have been as close as Clinton 0.546, Trump 0.454 just 3 weeks ago so the numbers can change rather rapidly. 

Will they change again? We'll know more in 21 days!

4 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.84, Trump 0.16

Election Day is now exactly 4 weeks (28 days!) away. FiveThirtyEight's election prediction model says that Hillary Clinton has a probability of  0.84 of becoming president, while Donald J. Trump has a 0.16 probability of winning the 2016 presidential election. This is a significant change from last week, when their relative chances were 0.718 for Clinton-Kaine and 0.282 for Trump-Pence.

5 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.718, Trump 0.282

There are now 5 weeks (35 days) until November 8, 2016, election day. The FiveThirtyEight election forecast  now says the probability that Hillary Clinton will be elected president is now 0.718 (Donald Trump's chance of winning is now 0.282). This is a dramatic jump from last week, where the probability was 0.546 Clinton, 0.454 Trump. That shows the volatility in the prediction, although it must of course be noted that in between now and then, the most watched presidential debate in historym occurred, with more than 84 million people viewing the debate on Monday September 26.

The Vice-Presidential debate is tomorrow night. Can it possibly have as large an effect on the probabilities? The second Presidential debate is next Sunday, October 9th.

6 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.546, Trump 0.454

I've been busy all day so I didn't get to post the latest prediction by FiveThirtyEight.com about the candidates' relative chances to be president with 42 days remaining (6 weeks) before election day. Hillary Clinton has a probability of 0.546 while Donald Trump has a probability  of 0.454. Last week, Clinton had a probability of 0.589 while Trump had a probability of 0.411.