Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

POLL: Even Republican Primary Voters Support Mariage Equality


Joe Jervis today blogged about a Washington Post poll that shows that even among Republican primary voters, who are more conservative than the country as a whole, more of them think opposition to marriage equality is an unacceptable position for their presidential nominee than think it is an acceptable position.

There is some question as to whether Republican voters were too dumb to even realize that the question was asking about support for marriage equality, since the way the question is asked it in the form of a double negative.

It should also be noted that for Democratic voters in those same states the number of respondents who found a presidential candidate who opposed marriage equality acceptable were: 26% (Iowa), 18% (New Hampshire) and 32% (South Carolina).

Hat/tip to Joe Jervis


Tuesday, October 22, 2013

33% Of U.S. Population (100+ Million People) Living With Marriage Equality


One decade ago there were exactly zero states that had marriage equality, even though the Defense of Marriage Act had been federal law for seven years. In November 2003 the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled that the state constitution required equal marriage rights for same-sex couples under the law and issued an order to go in effect on May 17, 2004. Note that the second state, Connecticut did not have marriage equality until November 2008 (and for a brief 173 days starting in June 2008 Californians had access to same-sex marriage prior to the passage of Proposition 8). So, really in a little over 5 years marriage equality has increased from roughly 10 million to another order of magnitude.

With New Jersey becoming the 14th state to enact marriage equality this week there are now well over 100 million people who live in states with marriage equality, about 33% of the entire U.S. population.

The American Foundation for Equal Rights (AFER) summaries the astonishingly rapid progress:

StateDate EffectivePopulationPercent
MassachusettsMay 20046,547,6292.12%
ConnecticutNov. 20083,574,0971.16%
IowaApr. 20093,046,3550.99%
VermontJun. 2009625,7410.20%
New HampshireJan. 20101,316,4700.43%
Washington, D.C.Mar. 2010601,7230.19%
New YorkJun. 201119,378,3616.28%
WashingtonDec. 20126,724,5402.18%
MaineDec. 20121,328,3610.43%
MarylandJan. 20135,773,5521.87%
DelawareJun. 2013897,9340.29%
CaliforniaJun. 201337,253,95612.07%
MinnesotaAug. 20135,303,9251.72%
Rhode IslandAug. 20131,052,5670.34%
New JerseyOct. 20138,791,8942.84%


Total

102,216,846

  33.11%


Any predictions for when the United States will hit 50%? Remember Illinois, Hawaii, New Mexico and Oregon are widely expected to legalize civil marriage for same-sex couples sooner rather than later.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

New Mexico AG Announces He Won't Defend State's Marriage law


Interesting news out of New Mexico today. Democratic Attorney General Gary King has announced that he is not going to defend the state against a lawsuit that seeks to declare that same-sex couples have a right to marry in New Mexico (because he believes that the state's equal protection guarantees demand marriage equality), but he is also arguing that the particular lawsuit be thrown out on procedural grounds.

The Santa Fe New Mexican reports:
In written arguments filed with the court, King said the justices should invalidate the state’s ban on gay marriage if they agree to resolve the issue in a lawsuit filed by two Santa Fe men who were denied a marriage license. 
King, a Democrat who plans to run for governor next year against Republican Gov. Susana Martinez, said New Mexico law effectively doesn’t allow gay marriages although there’s no statutory provision that specifically prohibits, or authorizes, gay couples to be married. 
“New Mexico’s guarantee of equal protection to its citizens demands that same-sex couples be permitted to enjoy the benefits of marriage in the same way and to the same extent as other New Mexico citizens,” King said in the filing. 
The five-member court had asked King’s office to respond to the lawsuit. No hearing has been scheduled in the case so far, and it’s uncertain whether the Supreme Court will issue a decision resolving the same-sex marriage dispute. 
The lawsuit was filed directly with the justices to try to get a speedy decision. However, the court could decide that the case should be handled differently and has to work its way through the legal system as an appeal from a lower court ruling.
New Mexico is an interesting locus for battles around marriage equality because it is one of the very few states in the Union which does not have explicit statutory or constitutional language barring same-sex marriage.

It will be interesting to see what steps the New Mexico Supreme Court takes to resolve this issue. The last state Supreme Court to enact marriage equality was Iowa, which did it by a unanimous vote in 2009 in Varnus v Brien. Other state courts which have ruled in favor of marriage equality are California, Massachusetts, and Connecticut

Wednesday, May 08, 2013

WATCH: History Of Marriage Equality Laws In United States

With Delaware's dramatic movement yesterday to become the 11th state to enact marriage equality since 2003 (and the second state this year after Rhode Island) it's a good time to look back at how far the issue of marriage equality has come in the last four decades. The cool graphic created by The Atlantic (shown above) does just that.

For the record these are the years and states that have enacted marriage equality:

*California had marriage equality from June 15, 2008 to November 5, 2008. California is the only state where same-sex couples have had the right to marry and then have had that right revoked by the passage of Proposition 8. Whether Proposition 8 is constitutional is a question the United States Supreme Court is currently considering, in the case Hollingsworth v Perry

As I reviewed the 11 states that have enacted marriage equality I noticed that the only Republican governor to sign a marriage equality bill into law was Jodi Rell of Connecticut, and she did so after the state Supreme Court had already enacted marriage equality and the legislature passed a bill codifying the Kerrigan decision. Republican governors in California (2005 and 2007), New Jersey (2011) and Vermont (2009) have all vetoed marriage equality bills. Only Governor Jim Douglas's veto has been over-ridden. Chris Christie's veto is subject to override until January 2014 and may happen.

All 11 states that have passed marriage equality are "blue states," i.e. states that consistently vote for Democratic candidates for president. Iowa is probably the least blue of these states, and is primarily a red state at the state level. New Hampshire is probably purplish-blue, and has had a Republican legislature since marriage equality was enacted. These are probably the two states where marriage equality is the most vulnerable to repeal efforts. However, in the last few years the movement has been in the direction of more marriage equality. In fact, since 2004 every year has ended with more people living in jurisdictions that allow same-sex couples than the year before. Does anyone think that process is going to be reversed? Only bigoted heterosexual supremacists, but they are quickly receding into a vortex of delusion, denial and demagoguery.

All eyes are now looking at Illinois and Minnesota where there are Democratic majorities in the legislature and Democratic governors eager to sign marriage equality bills into law. And California may have marriage equality after June's Supreme Court decision. In 2014, there will be ballot measures on marriage equality in Oregon, Nevada (and possibly California).


Monday, March 25, 2013

MAP: States That Ban Same-Sex Marriage


Look at this map of states that ban same-sex marriage: it is a sea of blue representing the 31 states that have passed amendments prohibiting state recognition or legalization of marriage. The only states that are not in the North East corner of the country are Washington, Iowa and New Mexico. Two of those states (Washington and Iowa) have marriage equality, and New Mexico doesn't have a clear public policy position (there's no law banning it and there's no law enacting it either).

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

2 Weeks Until Election: Obama 233, Romney 195

There are now two weeks until election day, a mere 14 days and the presidential race is getting even tighter. Last week the difference between Obama-Biden 2012 and Romney-Ryan 2012 was 25 electoral votes, with the blue team at 247 electoral votes to the red team's 222.

This week, both teams have had their electoral vote totals reduced as more states slip into the Undecided (or yellow) category from last week. Obama-Buden lost 14 electoral votes while Romney-Ryan lost 27, nearly twice as many. There are a total of 8 states in the yellow category: Ohio (18), Iowa(6) , New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20),  Arizona (11) and Colorado (9) totally 120 electoral votes. This is because once the polling average becomes 2 points or less, the TPM Electoral Scoreboard considers  the state to be in the "Undecided" category.

However the blue team now has a lead of 38 electoral votes with 14 days to go. Some of the states that are listed as undecided are very likely to revert to their historical pattern, with Arizona's 11 electoral votes going to the Republicans and Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes going to the blue team.

If there any dramatic changes in the next few days I may post updates on a more frequent schedule instead of waiting for next week.

Stay tuned!

Friday, September 07, 2012

Zach Wahls Talks About His Lesbian Moms At DNC


Zach Wahls is a well-known straight ally from Iowa who has become prominent in that state's battle over marriage equality. He is an Eagle Scout who grew up with lesbian moms. Recently, he addressed the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, NC.

hat/tip to Joe.My.God

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Analysis Of Marriage Equality On Marriage Rates

This above graphic comes from an analysis by Slate magazine of marriage rates in jurisdictions which have legalized marriage equality (Massachusetts, Iowa, Vermont, Connecticut, New Hampshire and District of Columbia) versus the national marriage rate. Do you see a trend or correlation? Me neither!

Neither does Slate, according to "Does Gay Marriage Destroy Marriage?":

Start with Massachusetts, which endorsed gay marriage in May 2004. That year, the state saw a 16 percent increase in marriage. The reason is, obviously, that gay couples who had been waiting for years to get married were finally able to tie the knot. In the years that followed, the marriage rate normalized but remained higher than it was in the years preceding the legalization. So all in all, there’s no reason to worry that gay marriage is destroying  marriage in Massachusetts. 
The other four states that have legalized gay marriage—New York, Connecticut, Iowa, Vermont, and New Hampshire—have done it more recently, somewhere between 2008 and 2011. But from the little data we have, it looks as if the pattern will be more or less the same—a temporary jump in marriage followed by a return to virtually the same marriage rates as before gay marriage became legal. Washington, D.C., which started accepting same-sex marriages in March 2010, saw a huge 61.7 percent increase in marriage that year, though it’s too soon to see where it will settle. Again, no signs of the coming apocalypse.

The piece also goes on to look at divorce rates in the states where same-sex couples can get legally married (and divorced) right now to try to determine if such activity has any impact on the divorce rates of opposite-sex couples. The data just does not indicate that there is any impact of marriage equality on divorce or marriage rates in a state, unsurprisingly. What a shock, another talking point by religious extremists and heterosexual supremacists turns out to be obviously false.

Hat/tip to Americablog

Monday, February 27, 2012

POLL: Iowa Voters Oppose Marriage Equality Repeal




A new poll from the Des Moines Register  illustrates that even if Iowan voters were given the opportunity to vote on the legality of their fellow citizens' marriages (which is unlikely to happen) a majority of them would oppose a ban on same-sex marriage being added to the state constitution.

According to the poll 56% oppose the same-sex marriage ban while 38% support it.


The poll also asks about the unanimous Iowa State Supreme Court decision Varnum v. Brien which legalized marriage equality in April 2009. On that front the results are less supportive of equality with 30% favoring the decision and 36% opposing it while a full 33% of the respondents "don't care much" either way.
The poll was taken February 12-15 and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Because the Democrats control the Iowa State Senate (by a slim majority of one vote!), there is no way that a constitutional amendment will be presented to the Iowa voters before 2015 (a constitutional amendment has to be passed by two consecutive sessions of the Iowa Legislature before it can appear before voters).

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Do The Math: We Don't Know Who Won Iowa 2012

On the first official presidential contest of 2012 on January 3rd the mainstream consensus was that Mitt Romney had "won" by 8 votes (out of nearly 120,000 votes cast) ahead of Rick Santorum. This was such a ludicrous claim that I didn't even blog about it, deciding to wait until the official vote tallies were released. 8 votes out of  120,000 is a MUCH smaller margin of error than the margin between Bush and Gore in 2000 (an alleged 437 votes out of 5.8 million). No voting system that we currently use has the capability to resolve that kind of margin (.00005%).

Well, now the official final vote tallies from the 2012 Iowa caucuses are in and they are:
Mitt Romney 29,805
Rick Santorum 29,839
Curiously, now Republican officials are coming around to mathematical realities and calling the results a "split decision" or tie. This is what they should have done at the very beginning! DO THE MATH. The point here is that, no, Romney did not win the first two nomination contests, he tied in the first and won in a state where he owns a house and was Governor of its largest neighboring state.

Whether this new information will be enough to stop Romney's supposed inevitable momentum to the Republican nomination for the presidency we will see. Also, this is an ominous sign that the 2012 presidential election may be as close as the 2000 election, and I really don't think we want the Supreme Court deciding two elections of the last four, do we?

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Celebrity Friday: Zach Wahls


Zach Wahls, is a 19-year-old student from Iowa who was raised by his two moms and became an internet celebrity earlier this year when he defended his family in brilliant, emotionally moving testimony before the state House of Representatives which was considering legislation to ban gay marriage in the state. Zach is today's subject for Celebrity Friday.

This week comes news that his video has been watched almost 16 million times, becoming the most watched political video of 2011, ahead of President Obama's announcement of the death of Osama bin Laden and President Obama's humorous speech at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, among others.

Watch it again, and weep!



Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

NYT Reports on Nationwide Marriage Equality Fight

The New York Times had an interesting editorial on the fight for nationwide marriage equality in light of the recent 10-8 vote in the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee to repeal the so-called Defense of Marriage Act. The above image indicates the current state-by-state recognition of same-sex relationships. The highlights are that only three states: Rhode Island, New Mexico and New Jersey have no laws banning marriage equality. In two of those three states (Rhode Island and New Jersey) civil union statutes have been enacted which purport to provide all the rights and responsibilities of marriage while reserving the name of "marriage" to opposite-sex couples only.

The editorial ("A Long, Winding Road to Marriage Equality") says:
Twenty-nine states have enacted constitutional amendments blocking same-sex marriage. In 18 of those states, the amendments also ban domestic partnerships or civil unions. Twelve states bar same-sex marriage by statute, and in two, Minnesota and North Carolina, anti-gay-marriage constitutional amendments will go before voters next year. At this point, nearly 60 percent of Americans live in places that do not protect gay couples in any way. 
With New York, same-sex marriage is still allowed in only six states and the District of Columbia. Only 13 states provide some recognition of gay relationships with broad domestic partnerships or more limited rights, for things like medical decisions and inheritance (this includes 11 states with constitutional amendments or statutes barring gay marriage).
In addition to the attempts to ban marriage equality in Minnesota and North Carolina via the ballot box in 2012, there will be attempts to legalize marriage equality by ballot measure in Maine. There will be no such attempt in California, however. (Thank Goodness!)  Also, in Washington, New Jersey and Maryland there are on-going efforts to legalize same-sex marriages in those states.

Of course at MadProfessah.com we will be covering all these political stories in 2012!

Saturday, November 12, 2011

REPORT: Over 50,000 Legally Married Same-Sex Couples


The Williams Institute of UCLA Law School issued a report this week, Patterns of Relationship 
Recognition by Same-Sex Couples in the United States, which details that over 50,000 couples have legally married in the United States and over 140,000 have entered into some form of governmental recognition of their relationship at the state level.

From the press release:

LOS ANGELES, CA – Over 140,000 same-sex couples have formalized their
relationship under state law in the United States.  Nearly 50,000 same-sex couples have
married.  These findings from a new Williams Institute study, Patterns of Relationship
Recognition by Same-Sex Couples in the United States, are based on state administrative
data from those states where same-sex couples can marry, enter civil unions or domestic
partnerships, or enter other legal relationship statuses.  The study also finds that same-sex
couples prefer marriage over other non-marital legal relationship statuses.   
“We see a lot of evidence that same-sex couples strongly prefer marriage over civil
unions or domestic partnerships. Same-sex couples marry at higher rates in the first year
they have the option than we see in civil union states, for example,” M.V. Lee Badgett,
Research Director of The Williams Institute and professor of economics at the University
of Massachusetts Amherst.  “Our findings are consistent with other research showing that
couples value marriage more for its social meaning than for its practical benefits.”   
The new study also provides a snapshot of the couples who enter legally-recognized
relationship statuses.  These couples are predominantly female, tend to be younger than
currently married different-sex couples, and tend to be older than newly-married
different-sex couples. When a state allows marriage for same-sex couples, couples will
travel to that state to marry from other states in which they do not enjoy that same
opportunity.  
“When we look at the residency of same-sex couples who marry, around 60 percent live
outside of the state where they got married,” said Jody L. Herman, Peter J. Cooper Public
Policy Fellow at The Williams Institute.  “Couples are much less likely to travel out of
state to enter non-marital legal statuses.  This is further evidence that same-sex couples
prefer marriage.”
The graphic at the top illustrates the impact of same-sex marriage in Iowa on the surrounding states in the midwest of the country. Currently, New York, Iowa, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut and the District of Columbia all allow legal same-sex marriage.

Which state will be next? Perhaps Maine or Maryland?

Thursday, November 10, 2011

IOWA: Democrats Retain Senate Majority, Saving Marriage Equality

Another happy story from Tuesday's elections is the fact that Democrats retained control of the Iowa State Senate, which means that the only mid-west state which enjoys marriage equality will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Democrat Liz Mathis defeated Republican Cindy Golding in a special election in Iowa on whose result control of the State Senate depended:

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal (D-Council Bluffs) extended his congratulations to Mathis Tuesday night.
“As Iowa’s newest State Senator, Liz Mathis will ensure that our state continues to be a place where business can grow and prosper, a place where we can raise our families and a place where our children have access to every opportunity,” he said.
Sue Dvorsky, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, also congratulated Mathis and extended her thanks to the candidate and the party’s “countless volunteers and community leaders.”
“This election reaffirms Democratic commitment to creating jobs and strengthening education in the state of Iowa. Voters in Senate District 18 know that Democrats are the best choice to continue moving Iowa forward, and made their voice heard tonight at the polls,” Dvorsky said.
But in addition to being a victory for state Democrats, the race was also welcomed as a victory for LGBT Iowans. If the outcome had been different, a possibility existed that a House Republican plan to begin a constitutional amendment process would move forward.
In fact, several regional and national social conservative organizations that object to same-sex marriage made independent expenditures in support of the GOP candidate. Just days prior to the election, a series of robocalls featuring former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee were issued by Citizens United on behalf of Golding. The National Organization for Marriage, The Family Leader and Family Research Council Action drove the “Values Bus” into the district on Monday in order to rally voters to support Golding based on cultural issues.
Troy Price, executive director of One Iowa, the state’s largest LGBT advocacy group, heralded the election results as “a great victory for Iowans.”
” Voters in this district clearly rejected the mean-spirited and misleading attacks of our opposition that we saw right up until the polls closed on election day. Instead, voters elected the candidate they felt would best move our state forward. We are so proud of our volunteers, staff, and supporters who helped make this victory possible. We know that Liz Mathis will be a great senator, and we look forward to working with her in the coming legislative session.”


Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Nate Silver Declares Marriage Equality Opponents In Minority

Good news! Polling guru Nate Silver has crunched the latest poll numbers (which I posted about yesterday) and has announced that he is confident that opposition to marriage equality is no longer a majority position. that fact is reflected in the graphic displayed above. It's still a bit too soon to say whether support for marriage equality is a majority or even plurality position thanks to the margin of error in the polls but the trend lines are VERY clear.

Nate ends his post at The New York Times with a cautionary note to Republicans:

But Republican candidates, who have placed less emphasis on gay marriage in recent years, probably cannot expect their opposition to it to be a net electoral positive for them except in select circumstances. If support for gay marriage were to continue accelerating as fast as it has in the past two years, supporters would outnumber opponents roughly 56-40 in the general population by November 2012. 
Past trends, of course, are no guarantee of future ones, and it’s always possible that the momentum toward increasing support for gay marriage could flatten out or even reverse itself. 
But this does put Republicans in a tricky position. Their traditional position on gay marriage is becoming less popular. But to the extent they disengage from the issue, they may lose even more ground. One way to read the trends of the past few years is that we have passed an inflection point wherein it is no longer politically advantageous for candidates to oppose same-sex marriage, which in turn softens opposition to it among the general public, creating a sort of feedback loop and accelerating the trend.
It should be interesting to see how heterosexual supremacists who are opposed to marriage equality, especially Republican presidential contenders, deal with these poll results, especially since the first two primary states, New Hampshire and Iowa, both have legalized marriage equality.

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

WATCH: Kid Of Lesbian Moms Defend Iowa Marriage Equality

The Iowa legislature is currently debating a constitutional amendment to overturn marriage equality and ban civil unions in that state. Today, they head testimony from Zach Wahls, a 19-year-old son of two teenage moms who were married in Iowa in 2009.

WATCH, it's riveting.





I have some qualms about the "we're just like you" assimilationist message communicated but there's no question his passionate defense of his family illustrates the impact of public policy discussions on the real lives of Iowans.

Afterwards, the Republican-dominated Iowa house passed the measure on to the state Senate by a  vote of 62-37. The majority leader Mike Gronstal has said that he will not allow any measure overturning Iowa marriage equality to come to a vote. In order to amend the Iowa constitution, a amendment has to pass both houses of the legislature in two consecutive legislative sessions and then be approved by a majority of voters. The earliest a vote on marriage equality could happen is 2013 (if the currently debated measure passed this year and next).

Hat/tip to TowleRoad.

LinkWithin

Blog Widget by LinkWithin