QUEER QUOTE: Openly Gay Speaker Of RI House Resigns Post After FBI Raid

The openly gay, multiracial Speaker of the Rhode Island House of Representatives announced in a written statement that he would be resigning his leadership position and would not seek re-election this year, following a raid of his home and office by federal law enforcement officials. The Speaker brokered a controversial civil unions compromise in 2011 and is currently one of five people who are openly LGBT and head a state legislative chamber in the United States.

The New York Times reports:

Agents from the F.B.I., the Internal Revenue Service, the United States attorney’s office and the state police conducted the searches. 

Mr. Fox, 52, was first elected to the state House of Representatives in 1992 and had been speaker since February 2010. He had said he planned to stand for re-election this fall and hoped to keep his position as speaker. 

Mr. Fox, who is gay, was instrumental in pushing through the legislation last May that legalized same-sex marriage in Rhode Island. And at the bill signing ceremony on the steps of the State House he spoke emotionally about his relationship with his longtime partner, Marcus LaFond. 

The couple were married last year in Mr. Fox’s legislative office. 

Mr. Fox said Saturday that he planned to complete the rest of his two-year term, which ends in December.

Fox's resignation letter is today's Queer Quote:

“The Rhode Island House of Representatives is an institution that I deeply respect and serving my constituents has been a major part of my life for the past 22 years. I will not let yesterday’s events distract my colleagues from addressing the challenges facing Rhode Island.”  

“Because of the respect I have for all members of the House of Representatives, I am resigning as Speaker. The process of governing must continue and the transition of leadership must be conducted in an orderly manner.”   

“I want to thank my colleagues and loyal staff for all that we were able to accomplish together. I will continue to serve out the remainder of my term and represent my neighbors and constituents in District 4. That said, I do not intend to seek another term in the House.”

“My personal focus going forward will be on my family and dealing with the investigation. Because of the nature of this matter, I will not be commenting further.” 

I'm sad that it looks like this openly gay man's political career is over.

Freedom To Marry Summarizes Marriage Equality Victories In 2013

Freedom to Marry, the campaign to win marriage equality nationwide, has summarized the amazing progress in marriage equality that happened in the last year into one animated gif (shown above) and a blog post written by Evan Wolfson: "Top 10 Freedom to Marry Moments in 2013."

10. Anniversaries and Milestones in Massachusetts, Hawaii, and More9. More Republicans Join the Cause8. Majority of U.S. Senate Supports the Freedom to Marry7. Ascendance of Pope Francis and a New Tone on Gay People and Marriage6. President Obama Extols the Freedom to Marry in Inaugural Address5. Freedom to Marry Makes International Gains Around the World4. Record Majorities for Marriage3. Obama Administration Moves Swiftly and Strongly to Implement Federal Respect for Married Couples – Even in Discriminating States2. We Win the Freedom to Marry in a Record 9 More States1. Supreme Court Strikes Down Core of DOMA

Go to the post and read the details behind these headlines.

Same-Sex Marriage Now Legal In Utah After Federal Judge Strikes Down Marriage Ban

Well, well, well! While I was incommunicado watching The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug this afternoon apparently there was some amazing breaking news. Federal judge Robert Shelby issued a ruling which struck down Utah's voter-passed constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage and refused to issue a stay of his decision, which means that same-sex couples can now get married in the Beehive state. There is a keen sense of irony that this is occurring in Utah, which is the location of the Mormon Church, one of the most virulent opponents of marriage equality and LGBT rights throughout the country.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints issued a statement:

 The Church has been consistent in its support of traditional marriage while teaching that all people should be treated with respect. This ruling by a district court will work its way through the judicial process. We continue to believe that voters in Utah did the right thing by providing clear direction in the state constitution that marriage should be between a man and a woman and we are hopeful that this view will be validated by a higher court.

The Governor of Utah, Republican Gary Hebert said:

"I am very disappointed an activist federal judge is attempting to override the will of the people of Utah. I am working with my legal counsel and the acting Attorney General to determine the best course to defend traditional marriage within the borders of Utah."

The full text of the decision can be accessed here.

Ian Milhiser analyzed the ruling at Think Progress:

Beyond Judge Shelby’s conclusion that marriage is a question of constitutional rights, not one of states’ rights — as he explains, “the Fourteenth Amendment requires that individual rights take precedence over states’ rights where these two interests are in conflict” — Shelby’s opinion appears designed to tear down whatever intellectual infrastructure remains supporting marriage discrimination.

The leading argument advanced by supporters of discrimination in same-sex marriage cases is that marriage is necessarily tied to procreation, so same-sex couples can be excluded because they cannot produce biological offspring. Yet, as Shelby points out, the ability to procreate is not “a defining characteristic of conjugal relationships from a legal and constitutional point of view.” Such an argument does not simply “demean[] the dignity” of same-sex couples, it also degenerates “the many opposite-sex couples who are unable to reproduce or who choose not to have children.” Indeed, under Utah’s argument for maintaining marriage discrimination, “a post-menopausal woman or infertile man does not have a fundamental right to marry because she or he does not have the capacity to procreate.”

Additionally, opponents of marriage equality who cheered Justice Antonin Scalia’s sharply worded dissent in Lawrence v. Texas — another landmark gay rights opinion — may come to regret Scalia’s words after reading Judge Shelby’s opinion. Scalia wrote in Lawrence that “[t]oday’s opinion dismantles the structure of constitutional law that has permitted a distinction to be made between heterosexual and homosexual unions, insofar as formal recognition in marriage is concerned.” Shelby’s opinion proclaims that Scalia was right.

Oh the delicious irony. Will noted homophobe Justice Antonin Scalia disavow his dissent in Lawrence in order to deny a fundamental right to marry that he announced the Supreme Court would be powerless to prevent from being articulated if private sexual relations were removed from governmental regulation? It will be fascinating to see what happens when this decision goes to the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals to the Supreme Court in the future.

But right now, astonishingly, Utah is the 18th state in the union to have enacted marriage equality, and the first very red state to do so. Presumably, same-sex couples will be able to get civil marriage licenses and get married in Utah (no waiting period!) until a stay is issued by a higher court, which could happen as early as Monday.

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

GRAPHIC: The Flag of Equal Marriage

This is what the flag of the United States would look like if you only included the states where marriage equality is currently law. This ongoing online protest is a project of MakeItEqual.org.

Hat/tip to LGBT Think Progress.

Same-Sex Marriages Begin In Hawaii, Becoming 15th Marriage Equality State

And then there were 15! Hawaii is now the 15th state in the United States where all resident couples who want to get married will be issued marriage licenses.

The Honolulu Star-Tribune reports:

Hawaii's marriage laws allow couples to register for a license and be married the same day, a process conducive for tourists only in the state a short time.

Couples can sign up for a license online then be verified by any license agent throughout the state. Agents have set up shop throughout the islands, from resorts on Maui and the Big Island to hard-to-reach places on Kauai.

Saralyn and Isajah Morales began filling out license applications a few minutes after midnight along with other couples. Several license agents huddled around four laptops in a tiny conference room, refreshing their web browsers to coax a state-run website to load. A few feet away, wedding guests sipped champagne, dined on curried shrimp and portabella mushroom sliders, listened to piano music and took pictures with each of seven cakes on display for the occasion.

[...]

Hawaii is often credited with starting the national gay marriage discussion, when couples applying for a marriage license led to a court fight that eventually helped prompt Congress to pass the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996. Part of the law was struck down earlier this year by the U.S. Supreme Court.

I have been involved in the fight for marriage equality since the early 1990s when we thought Hawaii would be the first state where gay couples would be able to get married. That state turned out to be Massachusetts, in 2004.

Amazingly, just in 2013 the following states have enacted marriage equality: Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, Minnesota, California and New Jersey. Illinois has already enacted marriage equality, but same-sex couples will not be able to get married until July 1. The next states that are expected to be marriage quality states are New Mexico and Oregon, probably sometime later in 2014.

33% Of U.S. Population (100+ Million People) Living With Marriage Equality

One decade ago there were exactly zero states that had marriage equality, even though the Defense of Marriage Act had been federal law for seven years. In November 2003 the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled that the state constitution required equal marriage rights for same-sex couples under the law and issued an order to go in effect on May 17, 2004. Note that the second state, Connecticut did not have marriage equality until November 2008 (and for a brief 173 days starting in June 2008 Californians had access to same-sex marriage prior to the passage of Proposition 8). So, really in a little over 5 years marriage equality has increased from roughly 10 million to another order of magnitude.

With New Jersey becoming the 14th state to enact marriage equality this week there are now well over 100 million people who live in states with marriage equality, about 33% of the entire U.S. population.

The American Foundation for Equal Rights (AFER) summaries the astonishingly rapid progress:

State	Date Effective	Population	Percent
Massachusetts	May 2004	6,547,629	2.12%
Connecticut	Nov. 2008	3,574,097	1.16%
Iowa	Apr. 2009	3,046,355	0.99%
Vermont	Jun. 2009	625,741	0.20%
New Hampshire	Jan. 2010	1,316,470	0.43%
Washington, D.C.	Mar. 2010	601,723	0.19%
New York	Jun. 2011	19,378,361	6.28%
Washington	Dec. 2012	6,724,540	2.18%
Maine	Dec. 2012	1,328,361	0.43%
Maryland	Jan. 2013	5,773,552	1.87%
Delaware	Jun. 2013	897,934	0.29%
California	Jun. 2013	37,253,956	12.07%
Minnesota	Aug. 2013	5,303,925	1.72%
Rhode Island	Aug. 2013	1,052,567	0.34%
New Jersey	Oct. 2013	8,791,894	2.84%
	Total	102,216,846	33.11%

Any predictions for when the United States will hit 50%? Remember Illinois, Hawaii, New Mexico and Oregon are widely expected to legalize civil marriage for same-sex couples sooner rather than later.

Marriage Equality Now Legal In RI and MN Today

With marriage equality laws going into effect in Rhode Island and Minnesota today, the nation has 13 states where marriage equality is now the law of the land. They become the 3rd and 4th states to have marriage equality go into effect in this year, after Delaware (July 1) and California (June 28).

Hat/tip to Freedom To Marry

Last Day for Illinois Marriage Equality Bill To Pass

Today is the last day of the legislative session in Illinois and thus the last day the state can enact marriage equality in 2013. It needs to pass the state House by the time before adjourning. Signs are good that the measure has the votes and will come up for a vote. One of these signs is that openly gay legislator Greg Harris has been saying for days that he has the votes to pass it, and there is word that the Speaker of the Illinois House is inviting same-sex couples to the gallery to watch the vote on the measure, but it's not done until the final vote is cast!

If Illinois does enact marriage equality today, it would be the fourth state in 2013 to do so, following Rhode Island, Delaware and Minnesota.

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

Minnesota Will Become 12th Marriage Equality State!!

As I expected, the Minnesota Senate passed a marriage equality bill, 37-30, today, and Governor Mark Dayton (D) has announced he will sign it into law tomorrow at 5pm on the Capitol Steps. That means that on August 1st, Minnesota will become the 12th state where same-sex couples can get legally married, following on the heels of Rhode Island's law (11th state) which goes into effect the same day and a month after Delaware's which goes into effect on July 1st. I think it is only fair to order the states the order in which their laws go into effect, not the order in which they may have passed the bills.

And we are still waiting to see what happens in Illinois, where marriage equality passed the Senate (way back in February 15th by a vote of 34-21) and the bill is pending in the House.  Marriage equality may also return to California by the end of the June, since the Supreme Court is deciding whether Proposition 8, a state constitutional ban on marriage passed after marriage equality was already legal in the state (and I got married!), is constitutional under federal law.

Regardless, it is clear that 2013 is turning out to be a pretty good year for the good guys in the ongoing Kulturkampf (culture war) over what "equal right for all" means.

Minnesota House Passes Marriage Equality Bill 75-59!

As expected, the Minnesota House of Representatives approved a marriage equality bill 75-59, less than 6 months after Minnesota voters narrowly rejected an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment which would have disempowered the legislature from enacting such legislation.

According to Freedom To Marry, the bill will be voted on in the Senate on Tuesday May 13 (and is expected to pass). Governor Mark Dayton has said he will sign it into law if it passes the legislature.

WATCH: History Of Marriage Equality Laws In United States

With Delaware's dramatic movement yesterday to become the 11th state to enact marriage equality since 2003 (and the second state this year after Rhode Island) it's a good time to look back at how far the issue of marriage equality has come in the last four decades. The cool graphic created by The Atlantic (shown above) does just that.

For the record these are the years and states that have enacted marriage equality:

• 2013: Delaware, Rhode Island
• 2012: Maine, Maryland, Washington
• 2011: New York
• 2009: New Hampshire, Vermont, Iowa, District of Columbia
• 2008: Connecticut (and California*)
• 2003: Massachusetts

*California had marriage equality from June 15, 2008 to November 5, 2008. California is the only state where same-sex couples have had the right to marry and then have had that right revoked by the passage of Proposition 8. Whether Proposition 8 is constitutional is a question the United States Supreme Court is currently considering, in the case Hollingsworth v Perry. 

As I reviewed the 11 states that have enacted marriage equality I noticed that the only Republican governor to sign a marriage equality bill into law was Jodi Rell of Connecticut, and she did so after the state Supreme Court had already enacted marriage equality and the legislature passed a bill codifying the Kerrigan decision. Republican governors in California (2005 and 2007), New Jersey (2011) and Vermont (2009) have all vetoed marriage equality bills. Only Governor Jim Douglas's veto has been over-ridden. Chris Christie's veto is subject to override until January 2014 and may happen.

All 11 states that have passed marriage equality are "blue states," i.e. states that consistently vote for Democratic candidates for president. Iowa is probably the least blue of these states, and is primarily a red state at the state level. New Hampshire is probably purplish-blue, and has had a Republican legislature since marriage equality was enacted. These are probably the two states where marriage equality is the most vulnerable to repeal efforts. However, in the last few years the movement has been in the direction of more marriage equality. In fact, since 2004 every year has ended with more people living in jurisdictions that allow same-sex couples than the year before. Does anyone think that process is going to be reversed? Only bigoted heterosexual supremacists, but they are quickly receding into a vortex of delusion, denial and demagoguery.

All eyes are now looking at Illinois and Minnesota where there are Democratic majorities in the legislature and Democratic governors eager to sign marriage equality bills into law. And California may have marriage equality after June's Supreme Court decision. In 2014, there will be ballot measures on marriage equality in Oregon, Nevada (and possibly California).

New sources say that Minnesota may enact marriage equality as soon as next week!

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

Delaware Marriage Equality Vote Tue May 7;; Result In Doubt

The latest whip count on HB75 in the Delaware State Senate from Delaware Liberal has the marriage equality bill's fate still very much in doubt, with 10 (Democratic) Senators labeled as YES votes and 9 Senators (7 Republicans and 2 Democrats) labeled as No votes on HB 75. There are two undecided (or publicly unknown) Senators: Bethany Hall-Long (D-Newark) and Catherine Cloutier (R-Heatherbrooke). You can contact them at:

catherine.cloutier@state.de.us or 302-744-4197 or 302-577-8517bethany.hall-long@state.de.us or 302-744-4286

Even though there is more support for the marriage equality bill than opposition, it will not pass the Senate unless it has 11 confirmed votes in the 21 member body. Not voting or absences are counted as NO votes. The good thing is that the bill is now on the Senate floor, having made it through committee by a 4-2 vote on May 1. It is scheduled to be considered by the full Senate on Wednesday May 8 Tuesday May 7.

This is the last legislative step before marriage equality becomes law with Governor Markell's signature since HB 75 passed the state House by a vote of 23-18 on Wednesday April 23rd.

Since Rhode Island enacted marriage equality on Thursday May 1st, Delaware would become the 11th state to enact marriage equality if HB 75 passes on Wednesday.

If you live in Delaware or know anyone else who does, please have them contact their state Senator and the two State Senators above to let them know your thoughts on marriage equality.

Gov. Chafee (I-RI) Explains Why His State Is Enacting Marriage Equality Today

Lincoln Chafee is a former Republican United States Senator (from
1999 to 2007) and the current Independent Governor of Rhode Island

Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee has written an op-ed in today's New York Times explaining why he is going to be signing marriage equality into law today:

ON Thursday, the Rhode Island House of Representatives is expected to approve legislation to extend the right to marry to all Rhode Islanders, regardless of sexual orientation. I plan to sign the Marriage Equality Act into law immediately after the vote, on the steps of the Rhode Island State House, overlooking downtown Providence. This is the same spot where, in my 2011 inaugural address, I called for Rhode Island to embrace marriage equality.

[...]

I have been heartened in recent months to see members of my old party coming around on marriage equality, including the entire Republican caucus in the Rhode Island Senate — the first time a caucus of either party has been unanimous in its support. That reflects sound political judgment, and some values that are at least as Republican as they are Democratic, including a belief in marriage as an institution and a desire to keep government out of our personal lives.

The push for equality will continue to grow stronger in statehouses, courthouses and polling places in every state in America. This is, by and large, a generational issue, not a geographic one. Even in the reddest states, the rising generations are far more tolerant than their parents and grandparents. As this shift continues, marriage equality will inevitably become law in more and more states. The states that cling to their old prohibitions will then be viewed as the outliers. Like Rhode Island in recent years, they will be seen as islands of old thinking.

[...]

So tomorrow, when I sign the Marriage Equality Act into law, I will be thinking of the Rhode Islanders who have fought for decades simply to be able to marry the person they love. I will be thinking of how Rhode Island is upholding its legacy as a place founded on the principles of tolerance and diversity. But I will also be thinking, as all governors must, about the economy. With marriage equality becoming law tomorrow night in Rhode Island, we are sending a clear message that we are open for business, and that all are welcome. I hope that leaders in capitals across the country — including Washington — will soon realize that marriage equality is an issue where doing the right thing and the smart thing are one and the same.

Today Rhode Island will become the tenth state in the United States in which same-sex couples have all the rights, responsibilities and benefits of marriage that a state can bestow (including the title). That fact means that the entire region of New England (Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island) will have marriage equality.

GRAPHIC: Current Map Of Marriage Equality

USA Today published an update on the current state of marriage equality and published the above graphic so that readers could visualize the changes.

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

ALERT: Delaware Marriage Vote Down To One Senator

Joe.My.God sounds the alarm that the pending vote next week in the Delaware Senate on marriage equality appears to be very close. In fact according to analysis by the Delaware Liberal blog,  it may come down to the vote of one single State Senator: Brian Bushweller (D-Dover). Democrats have a 13-8 advantage in the State Senate, but there have been defections by 3 Democrats: Bruce Ennis, Bethany Hall-Long and Robert Venables, Sr. Happily, Republican Catherine Cloutier is bucking her caucus and voting for equality which means the vote is expected to be tied 10-all with Bushweller being the deciding vote on whether same-sex couples will get the right to marry this year, or will have to wait a little longer.

Bushweller can be reached by email at brian.bushweller@state.de.us and by phone at 302-674-5442. Information about other legislators (for example, Cloutier, Ennis, Hall-Long and Venables) can be found here. Hall-Long's opposition is notable, because she is the only one of the 6 women in the State Senate who says she is voting against making the issues of marriage licences gender-neutral in her state.

Hopefully, Mr. Bushweller will do the right thing and vote to enact marriage equality now. I don't really see how a comfortably blue state where every state-wide elected federal official has endorsed marriage equality will be able to resist the tide of history for very much longer.

Rhode Island Senate Passes Marriage Equality 26-12!

Excellent news! The Rhode Island Senate has just passed a marriage equality bill by a vote of 26-12, ensuring that the Ocean State will become the 10th state in the United States of America to have marriage equality. The State House had passed the measure 51-19 way back in January, and will have to reconcile the slightly different language "protecting religious liberties" in the Senate-passed version from the bill that passed the House. Openly gay Soeaker of the House Gordon Fox says that will probably happen next Thursday on May 2, and Governor Lincoln Chaffee has promised to sign the bill into law.

Senate President Theresa Paiva Reed allowed a vote on the measure (Senate Bill 0038 A) even though she personally opposed marriage equality and in 2011 she had used her position to prevent a House-passed marriage equality bill from becoming law.

Illinois and Delaware still have marriage equality bills pending which have passed one house of the legislature in each state.

Delaware House Passes Marriage Equality 23-18

As I blogged about last week, the House of Representatives of the great state of Delaware has voted on a marriage equality bill today, passing the measure 23-18. It now goes to the Senate, where it is also expected to pass. A clear majority of Delaware resident support marriage equality and the Governor or the State has said he will happily sign it into law.

Congratulations to Delaware! (In other news, it looks like the Rhode Island Senate will also vote on their pending marriage equality bill. We're still waiting for a vote in the Illinois House on their marriage equality bill, after the Senate passed the measure more than two months ago.

Saturday Politics: Majorities In 12 States Support Marriage

In 2012, there was majority support for marriage equality in 12 states and the District of Columbia, according to a recent report released by UCLA's Williams Institute. Those states were Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, Hawaii, Oregon, New York, Maine, Washington, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Colorado and California. (The District of Columbia had the largest support, at 62%.) The seven jurisdictions in bold already have marriage equality, while Hawaii (54%), Oregon (54%), New Jersey (51%), Rhode Island (50%), Colorado (50%) and California (50%) all have either civil unions or comprehensive domestic partnerships. Hawaii, Oregon, Colorado and California all have voter-approved state constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage. However, Oregon and possibly California and New Jersey may be voting to enact marriage equality at the ballot box in the near future.

The Williams Institute report's analysis indicates that ballot measures in several states (including Oregon, California and New Jersey) may be successful in the very near future.

This research brief identi ed that there 12 states plus the District ofColumbia presently with a majority (50% or above) in support of same-sex marriage. And, given current trends in public opinion on this issue, an additional 8 states will join this group by 2014. 

[...] 

Finally, there are 10 states that have previously passed constitutionalamendments to not introduce same-sex marriages that now have a majority or are within five percentage points of a majority in favor same-sex marriage (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Montana, Nevada, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). These states may be the future political arenas where existing constitutional amendments may be repealed in order to perform marriages for same-sex couples in those states.

This does put the poll question I previously asked back on the table: now that majority support is indicated for marriage equality, should those in favor of it use the ballot box to enact our public policy aims of enacting the civil right to civil marriages in those states? The dilemma is that it has long been a policy position of civil rights activists that "civil rights should never be subject to the tyranny of the majority." So, to now say that we will use the majority now that it is in our favor could be perceived as hypocritical. However, there are clear real and tangible harms to LGBT citizens by sticking to principle and not using every available means to end discrimination against same-sex couples as soon as possible. What do you think? Vote now:

Should New Jersey LGBT activists agree to allow a referendum on marriage equality in November 2013?
	Yes, since polls indicate a wide majority support marriage equality, the measure would pass easily.
	No,because allowing a vote on marriage equality violates a core principle of civil rights.
	Unsure, this is a tough question!
pollcode.com free polls

The Williams Report gives the level of support for marriage equality in every state in 2004 (numbers in green) and 2012 (numbers in blue) and uses that data to conclude that the rate of support is about 1.6 percentage points per year, on average, in every state. (It should be noted that that is the average rate; in some states the rate of increase of support for marriage equality is increasing at a more rapid rate, in some it is doing so at a slower rate. The key point is that support for marriage equality is increasing in every state.) This is shown in the figure below:

I think the proper thing to do is probably wait for the United States Supreme Court to weigh in on the civil rights of LGBT people in the Hollingsworth (California's Proposition 8) and Windsor (Defense of Marriage Act) cases. If the judiciary branch refuses to play its traditional role in our democracy of protecting the civil rights of minorities, then going to the ballot box to enact those rights seems perfectly justifiable.

POLL: 62% Support for Marriage Equality in New Jersey

A new poll of New Jersey registered voters conducted by the Eagleton Center at Rutgers University indicates that support for marriage equality is twice as large as its opposition in the Garden State. 62% of respondents say that they would vote for legalizing same-sex marriage if it were on the ballot, while 30% said they would vote against and 8% say they "Don't Know" how they would vote. Additionally, even larger percentages of voters want to vote on the issue, with 69% saying that voters "should decide on same-sex marriage" and 25% saying that voters should not.

This question of voting on marriage equality a very live one in New Jersey politics because Governor Chris Christie vetoed a marriage equality bill in February 2012 and at the time he did so he said New Jersey should allow "citizens to vote on a question that represents a profoundly significant societal change." The state legislature has until the end of the legislative session (which should happen sometime before the November elections where Christie is the overwhelming favorite to be re-elected) to try to over-ride Christie's veto.

Some legislators favor passing a new marriage equality measure that would include a referendum on the question but the position of Democratic leaders (who control both houses) have opposed this idea on the principle that marriage equality is a civil right and should not be subject to the whims of the electorate.

The analysis of the new polling data indicates that it is now those opposed to marriage equality who also are opposed to putting it on the ballot, because they think it will pass.

As the Legislature considers putting same-sex marriage on the ballot, 69 percent of voters want to vote on it, while 25 percent do not and 6 percent are uncertain. Although Christie initially called for a vote, which Democrats in Trenton opposed, liking or disliking the governor makes no difference to support for putting the question on the ballot.

Likewise, 68 percent of both Democrats and Republicans support a ballot measure. Black voters are 11 points less likely than whites to want voters to decide – 62 percent to 73 percent. But 82 percent of voters under 30 want the chance to vote on same-sex marriage.

If the issue reaches the ballot, voters seem overwhelmingly in favor of adoption. Support for same-sex marriage is at its highest level ever recorded in a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll (62 percent in favor, 30 percent opposed).  Seventy-five percent who support a ballot question favor same-sex marriage. Twenty percent would veto the measure.

Three-quarters of those who want the issue on the ballot would vote in favor, while 20 percent would oppose legalization. A majority (59 percent) of those opposed to allowing voters decide the matter also oppose legalization while 34 percent support it. “Many of those who oppose same-sex marriage appear to recognize it is likely to pass if on the ballot,” noted Redlawsk. “Thus they would prefer to keep it off the ballot in the first place.”

Large majorities of Democrats (72 percent) and independents (63 percent) favor same-sex marriage compared to 40 percent of Republicans. Only 31 percent of conservatives would vote yes, but same-sex marriage legalization has gained majority support across virtually all other groups.

“While Democratic leaders have called same-sex marriage a civil right that should not be subject to a vote, the evidence is that voters would readily align New Jersey with other states that have already legalized same-sex marriage,” Redlawsk said. “It may simply be time to move that way for those who want the issue resolved.” 

This is a tough question for LGBT activists and the progressive colleagues in the Legislature. It may also become a more pressing question as majority public opinion moves faster in the direction of marriage equality than majorities of legislators do. Should they agree to place marriage equality referenda on ballots as apart of a legislative compromise to pass a bill? I imagine legislators in Rhode Island, Illinois, and Delaware (where marriage equality bills are currently pending) are all looking at their counterparts in New Jersey very carefully.

What do you think, vote in the poll below:

Should New Jersey LGBT activists agree to allow a referendum on marriage equality in November 2013?
	Yes, since polls indicate a wide majority support marriage equality, the measure would pass easily.
	No,because allowing a vote on marriage equality violates a core principle of civil rights.
	Unsure, this is a tough question!
pollcode.com free polls

The Future of Marriage Equality: Nate Silver Predicts

Poll guru and data cruncher extraordinaire Nate Silver has decided to use the occasion of the recent Gaytterdämmerung (oral arguments before the United States Supreme Court of not one but two caes involving gay rights and marriage equality) to analyze recent polls about marriage equality, finally reveal what his predictions were for the 2012 marriage equality ballot measures and make some future predictions about how marriage equality would fare at the ballot box in 2016 and beyond.

Silver's model predicts that the four states (Maine, Maryland, Washington and Minnesota) which voted on the side of marriage equality in November 2012 would have done so, including 16 others. More interestingly, the model also has predictions for 2016. If one assumes a linear relationship between the 2012 and 2016 results one can interpolate a 2014 prediction as well.

Note that Silver's predictions for the results in 2012 are greater than the actual results that occurred at the ballot box for Maryland (55.0% predicted versus 52.4% actual; +2.6), Minnesota (52.3% predicted versus 51.2% actual; +1.1), Washington (55.7% predicted versus 53.7% actual; +2.0) but not Maine (51.1% predicted versus 51.5% actual; -0.4).

But his model also has good news for LGBT activists who may want to move forward with a pro-marriage equality measures in California and Oregon in 2014. A linear interpolation would indicate that California's measure would pass with approximately 57.5% of the vote while Oregon's would pass with 56.8%. Oregon's measure is much more likely to actually appear on the 2014 ballot than California's.

Another thing to notice about the list of states is that Rhode Island is at the top of the list, yet that state has not enacted marriage equality yet. Other states, like Illinois and Delaware, which are considering marriage equality legislation this year are also well into the blue territory of majority support for marriage equality.

The future of marriage equality is blue skies ahead!