Month: July 2024

Biden Bails

The oddest thing about President Joe Biden’s abrupt withdrawal from the presidential race is how strange the whole affair is. One might suppose such an important decision might be announced by a live television address. At the very least one might expect a recorded video message from Biden. Instead, we get a letter that may or may not have been written by Biden and delivered by tweet. Biden had not been seen for several days before this unexpected decision. It had been announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19 and then had disappeared.

Naturally, conspiracy theories abounded. Had Biden died? had he suffered a stroke or some other health crisis? Was he a prisoner? Just before his disappearance, Biden was insisting

Joe Biden

he would stay in the race. What had changed? Was the decision to withdraw truly Biden’s or had he been forced into it. Was it really Biden’s decision to endorse Kamala Harris for president?

This business reminded me of the coup against Gorbachev in the last days of the Soviet Union. Then, it was announced that Gorbachev was stepping down for health reasons. No one knew where Gorbachev was or what had happened to him. Was Biden the victim of a similar coup?

Biden has since reappeared at the White House and addressed the nation last Wednesday.  His address raised more questions than it answered. Biden never really explained his decision to drop out of the presidential race. He did not discuss any health problems that might have led to that choice. The address sounded more like a campaign speech than an explanation for a momentous event.

It is also strange how Kamala Harris has become the Democratic nominee without a single vote being cast for her. There has not been any discussion, except among the Democratic mega-donors, about whether she ought to be the nominee. This certainly has not been a democratic process. One might suppose that the Democratic Party is as misnamed as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. It seems as though the government of North Korea might actually be more transparent than the Democratic Party.

Kamala Harris

It has been a wonder to watch the Democrats change their messaging on a dime. Last week they were assuring us there was nothing wrong with the president. The videos of him stumbling around were “cheap fakes”. Now these same people are praising Joe Biden for selflessly stepping down from power. Often they are lauding Biden’s noble and patriotic decision using precisely the same words, as if reading from a script. One gets the impression that we are not dealing with thinking human beings here. It seems that we are seeing a species of social insects. The sort of creature where every individual mindlessly follows the direction of a hive mind.

Democrats

In reading through the Democrats’ social media, I feel as if I have entered a bizarre, funhouse mirror world. It is actually a bit nauseating to read their encomiums. For anyone who has been paying attention, Biden is a symbol for everything that is wrong about American politics. He is a corrupt, nasty, and stupid man who has spent his entire career enriching himself at the expense of his country. He is a weathervane of no definite ideological views who twists and turns in the political winds.

Yet, according to the Democrats, Biden is a man of singular nobility and patriotism. I cannot tell if these Democrats who are lauding Biden truly believe what they are writing or if they believe their voters are foolish enough to buy it. Perhaps the Democratic leaders have an accurate assessment of their followers.

In like fashion, Kamala Harris, a woman of minimal accomplishments, mostly famous for her incomprehensible word salads has somehow been retconned into the smartest, most articulate woman since Hilary Clinton. It is, of course, racist and sexist to recall that the only reason Biden selected her as his running mate was that she was a “Black” woman. It is still more bigoted to point out that Harris screwed up every task she was given as Vice-President.

Somehow, the candidate who had to drop out before a single vote was cast in 2020 has emerged as the woman who has reenergized the Democratic Party. If social media is any indication, millions of people all over the country are eager to support Harris. Every Black, woman and Black woman is donating money, attending Harris rallies, and planning to vote for Harris as many times as they can. Very strange, considering that these same people hardly knew her name a month ago.

Any discussion of oddities this election year would not be complete without mentioning the ear truthers. These are the Democrats who insist that either Donald Trump was not shot at all or that his wound was caused by a flying piece of glass. I am not sure what difference it makes in what actually hit Trump. I am less sure why anyone would contend he had not been shot at all.

Looks like he was shot to me

Perhaps this is due to the Manichean nature of our contemporary politics. Our opponents must be purely evil. They cannot demonstrate any virtues, least of all courage. Perhaps, the Democrats simply want to erase any credit Trump might earn with his courageous response in the mind of the public. Perhaps, the denial of observed reality is on a par with the tendency for the left to take every stray comment or action of Trump’s as proof that he is the reincarnation of Hitler. That, at least, is not an oddity at all for the Democrats.

There have been so many black swans in this election year that it seems that it is the white swans that are becoming rare. We have just a little over three months until the election. By all indications, it is going to be quite a rollercoaster. Hang on.

Speech

Last week I did something I very rarely do. I listened to a politician’s speech all the way through. The speech I listened to was, of course, Donald Trump’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention. Many people panned Trump’s speech as being too long and rambling. Others praised the speech as demonstrating a new, more sober Trump. I cannot help noticing that thoughts about Trump’s speech seemed closely related to the writer’s previous opinion about Trump. I suppose a neutral and unbiased view of Trump’s speech is just as unlikely as a neutral and unbiased view of the man himself.

For my part, Donald Trump’s speaking style reminded me of Seinfeld’s depiction of George Steinbrenner.

 

The discursive, rambling style that Larry David attributed to Steinbrenner could just as easily be used as an imitation of Trump’s signature style. I agree that the speech was overly long. It might have been more effective if Trump had kept the length under an hour. Perhaps someone should have reminded Trump that Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address was around two minutes long. In political speech, less is often more.

Donald Trump mitigated the effects of the excessive length of the speech by stating everything that needed to be said in the first half hour. This included a sober retelling of the recent assassination attempt from his point of view and a tribute to the man in the audience, Corey Comperatore, who was killed. Much of the rest of the speech was comprised of attacks on the mostly unnamed Biden administration, a defense of Trump’s first term, and promises for his second term. It was all standard political rhetoric, though better done than usual, and will be quickly forgotten.

Some of the things Trump said were not, strictly speaking, true. This is a curious thing that requires some explanation. Trump didn’t lie exactly. His untruths were more on the order of exaggerations. It is a quick of Trump’s mind that everything is either the biggest and best or the absolute worst. Inflation under the current administration is not merely bad, but the worst ever. Trump did not merely reduce the level of illegal immigration but reduced it to the lowest levels in history.

Trump’s spiel is something like the circus ringmaster who proclaims the circus’s lions are the most ferocious, the high wire act the most amazing, the clowns the most hilarious, etc. He does not really expect to be believed and no one really does believe him. Trump is essentially a showman. He is an entertainer. His exaggerations are part of the act. He is not trying to deceive his audience. He and his audience are participating in a shared vision of what could be. This is why media fact-checking is pointless. Trump’s followers do not, and should not, care if Trump gets all the details right. One might as well fact-check The Apprentice.

On the whole, I think Donald Trump did a good job with his speech. It will not be remembered as one of history’s greatest examples of rhetoric, but it got the job done. Even Trump’s rambling style worked to his advantage. He gives the curious impression of having a conversation with the listener. He does not talk to the audience, he speaks with them.

The speech was indeed a little short of the promised unity. But unity in politics is overrated. There is nothing wrong with sharply criticizing one’s political opponents. That is the whole point of having elections. It is only a problem when one begins to claim one’s political opponent is Hitler.

This brings me to the second part of this post. There have been several people fired for posting on social media their disappointment that the assassination attempt against Trump was not successful. Libs of TikTok has been racking up several scalps over the past week. This has been a cause of controversy on the right. Conservatives have deplored the cancel culture that has led to people getting fired, deplatformed, or ostracized. For some, the idea that conservatives should attempt to get people fired for expressing the view that Trump ought to have been killed is hypocritical. Conservatives, they say, ought not to sink to the left’s level. Others have suggested that the left has gotten away with cancel culture precisely because there has been no pushback. It is about time for the left to get a taste of its own medicine.

I do not agree with either position. I see the merit in both sides of the argument, but I think it is missing a critical point. The point we need to consider is that there is an essential distinction between a difference in opinions, even over a controversial matter, and wishing a person killed. We ought to defend the free speech rights of persons who disagree with us on subjects such as abortion, gun control, or even the number of genders there are. We ought not to respect the free speech rights of persons who wish another person dead.

The reason that a public pronouncement that wishing a person murdered is indefensible is that to wish a person dead is a wicked thought. It is, in its way, as wicked as actually participating in a murder. It is doubly wicked to wish the death of a public figure such as Donald Trump. Those people who have filmed themselves expressing regret have no idea of the terrible consequences that would follow the assassination of a presidential candidate. It does not occur to them that violence begets violence. They cannot imagine how the situation would escalate.

We cannot control the dark thoughts we occasionally have, but we ought not to express them. We ought not to cherish them. We ought not to broadcast such thoughts for the whole world to see. The people who post their wish that Trump had been killed either lack good judgment or self-control. They are garbage people who deserve whatever comes to them.

A Narrow Escape

Donald Trump had a narrow escape yesterday. If the bullet that was shot at him had passed just a centimeter to the right, Trump would have been killed. As it was, he was very fortunate that only his ear was grazed. It is likely that the United States was also very lucky yesterday. The fallout arising from the assassination of a political candidate, especially a candidate as controversial and polarizing as Donald Trump is unimaginable. None of us would care to live through the repercussions of such a catastrophic event.

I do not believe a successful assassination would have led to a civil war, at least not immediately. It is possible that some Trump supporters might have attempted to avenge a murdered Trump with violence. Despite the media narrative, Trump supporters are largely peaceful and law-abiding. They are not political activists who invest their whole lives in the cause. They are regular people with jobs and families.

Still, civil wars do not simply happen. They often occur after a long series of events that lower the threshold that inhibits violence. One side commits a provocation, and then the other side ups the stakes by committing a worse affront. Soon the two sides are committing the worst atrocities against each other each fully assured it is in the right. This is a process at least as old as Thucydides’s frightening description of a civil war in Corcrya in his History of the Peloponnesian War. I can easily imagine a similar series of tit-for-tat actions leading to a devastating war.

I believe, however, that the greatest harm from a successful Trump assassination, would be more subtle. For some time now, an increasing number of Americans have felt alienated from the people who rule the country. This feeling of disaffection has been growing since at least the economic crisis of 2008 when hard-working Americans who followed the rules suffered while the irresponsible received aid because they were too big to fail. These feelings of alienation and disaffection grew during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ordinary people were locked down while the elites profited.

It was the feeling that the system was rigged against working  Americans that inspired the TEA Party. The TEA Parties followed the rules. They peacefully petitioned the authorities for a redress of grievances, just as citizens are supposed to do. They even left the sites where they demonstrated cleaner than they found them. For their trouble, the TEA Partiers were ignored and abused by the media. The Democrats called them racist, fascist, and every other name they could think of. The Republicans used them to get elected and then dismissed them as fanatics.

Then the people turned to Donald Trump. Many among our elite believe that Trump is a figure like Jim Jones or Charles Manson. They think Trump’s supporters are a MAGA cult who blindly follow Trump. They feel that if only they can get rid of Trump, we will all wake up and go back to being good little plebs.

In fact, our elites have it backward. Donald Trump is not our cult leader. Donald Trump did not create the MAGA movement. He is, instead our standard bearer. He is our champion. If Donald Trump had not existed, we would have found another champion. If Donald Trump were to fall, someone else would take up his mantle. This is the danger.

If Donald Trump had been killed, no one would ever believe that it was not a hit organized by the “Deep State”. The people opposing Trump have made it very clear that they regard Trump as a serious threat to “Our Democracy”.  Nothing any Democrat or leftist says, from President Biden, downwards, condemning the assassination could be considered sincere, considering they had been all but urging his assassination for years.

If Trump had been assassinated, the feelings of estrangement of many Americans would be complete. Any faith in the possibility of working within the system would vanish. I do not know if a nation where more than half the population believes its system is fundamentally illegitimate can long endure.

I said that if Trump fell, someone else would take his place. Despite all the talk of Trump being a dictator like Hitler, Trump has been notably conscientious about following the rules. Almost alone among recent Presidents, Trump has not tried to overrule the other branches of government. The next man to come may not be. His followers, having seen Trump murdered, may not be so inclined to respect the process. If Trump falls, we may get the dictator the left fears in Trump. Those leftists who have posted videos regretting the shooter missed should be careful what they wish for.

I must say that Donald Trump rose to the occasion magnificently. I do not think  I am being cynical when I say that Trump’s showman’s instincts served him well. Trump knew just what to do to reassure his audience, and the nation, that all was well and he gained the admiration of the nation for his courage. Trump likely won the election with his quick thinking.

 

Finally, we ought to tone down the heated political rhetoric. By we, I mean the left. There are some overwrought voices on the right, to be sure, but much of the present hysteria is coming from the left. It is one thing to lampoon a political candidate for being too old. It is quite another to compare a political candidate to one of the worst men in history. There is nothing wrong with attacking a political platform. It is expected that a politician should be called a fool, a scoundrel, and a crook. It ought not to be expected that he should be called a potential dictator and a threat to the nation.

The problem with comparing any American political figure to Hitler, Stalin, or any other tyrant, aside from the fact that no American politician is anything like those villains, is that it raises the stakes. We can vote against a politician we disagree with or believe is incompetent. If he wins, there is always the next election. We may not be able to vote the next Hitler out of office. If we knew, with absolute certainty that a man would seize power and kill millions of people, we would want to stop him before he has the chance to gain power. In an overwrought political atmosphere, saying a man is Hitler is as good as calling for his assassination.

I have heard people on the right comparing Obama or Biden to a dictator. There is nothing on the right to compare with the eight-year campaign of hatred by the left against Donald Trump. The idea that Trump is a dire threat to “Our Democracy” has become mainstream in the Democratic Party. I have not heard anyone on the right calling for assassinations. There probably are conservatives who have done so, but they are marginal figures. I have heard many mainstream people on the left calling for assassinations.

This needs to stop. If it doesn’t stop we could talk ourselves into trouble no sane person wants.

Independence Day

The Fourth of July is the day on which the American people celebrate their independence from Great Britain. It is not actually clear why Independence Day is the Fourth. Congress actually passed the Declaration of Independence on July 2, 1776. It has often been thought that the Declaration was signed on the fourth, but that doesn’t seem to be true. There wasn’t any one time when the members of Congress signed the Declaration and there were a few who didn’t get around to signing it until August. Nevertheless, the fourth is the date that stuck. As John Adams wrote to Abigail.

English:

The second day of July, 1776, will be the most memorable epoch in the history of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated by succeeding generations as the great anniversary festival. It ought to be commemorated as the day of deliverance, by solemn acts of devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and illuminations, from one end of this continent to the other, from this time forward forever more.

And so it has been for the last 248 years. May God bless America and grant us many more years of freedom.

Happy Independence Day.

 

The Debate Debacle

So far I have not given much credence to the rumors that the Democrats have been planning to replace Joe Biden as their candidate for the 2024 presidential election. I thought that if there had been any plan to replace Biden, the Democrats would have encouraged other candidates to run against Biden. Instead, the Democrats strongly discouraged any competition in the primaries. If the opposition to Biden’s reelection campaign were strong enough, Biden would have announced that he was dropping out of the race last year, well before the first primary. It seemed that Joe Biden had been determined to run for another term, and no one within the Democratic party could gainsay him.

The disastrous first presidential debate changed matters.

It is obvious to everyone that Joe Biden is simply incapable of being president. In 2020, it was obvious to anyone paying attention that Biden was cognitively impaired due to his advanced age. That is why his handlers limited his public appearances using the excuse of the COVID pandemic. Yet, even in 2020, Joe Biden could perform the public, ceremonial duties of the presidency. His judgment may have been impaired, but Biden could make tightly controlled public appearances. Since the beginning of his term, Biden’s health has been declining at what appears to be an accelerating rate. It seems likely that by January 2025, Biden will be an invalid. If he is reelected, the United States will effectively have no president.

This would make it imperative that Joe Biden be replaced on the Democratic ticket. There are problems with this. It is my understanding that legal deadlines are coming up in some states. Soon, it may be impossible to simply replace Biden’s name with another candidate in every state. It is also unclear if money donated to Biden’s campaign can be transferred to another candidate.

Of course, the Democrats are not overly concerned about legality. They have switched out unfavorable candidates just before elections before. Still, a large number of people believe, with good reason, that the election of 2020 was rigged. Illegally replacing the candidate at the last minute will, not raise confidence in the legitimacy of our elections.

There is also the problem of who would replace Joe Biden. Kamila Harris is a DEI idiot. Hilary Clinton is completely unlikeable. Democratic governors like Gavin Newsom have mostly run their states into the ground. I do not think many. Michelle Obama has no experience that would qualify her for the presidency and doesn’t seem to want the job anyway. Anyone who did replace Biden would likely lose to Trump, which might damage their chance to win the election of 2028. An ambitious Democrat would be wise to avoid the mess of replacing Biden.

I don’t think the Republicans should crow about the mess the Democrats are in. Their candidate, Donald Trump, is 78 years old, just three years younger than Joe Biden. If elected, Trump will be the same age Biden was when he began his term. Granted, Trump is far more robust than Biden., both mentally and physically. In fact, Trump is more acute at his age than Biden was at forty. We cannot be certain this will be true in four years. If Trump begins to deteriorate, the decline is likely to progress rapidly. Trump might have served his country better by anointing a MAGA successor.

While many media outlets have been calling for Biden to drop out of the race, Biden’s family and inner circle seem firmly behind his campaign. Biden has shown no inclination to drop out. I would guess that unless Biden suffers a severe health crisis, he will be on the ballot in November.

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