The curious thing about the recent public spat between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy is that the confrontation gave a very different impression depending on how much of the video a person watched. Those who have only seen the last ten minutes are certain that Trump and J. D. Vance are bullying jerks. Those who have seen the entire forty-five-minute video conclude that Zelenskyy is an insolent and demanding jerk.
I cannot tell who is correct. Perhaps both Trump and Zelenskyy were being jerks. Certainly, Trump and Vance did not help matters by apparently losing their tempers. Vance seemed to spark the confrontation by contrasting the Biden administration’s public though ineffectual condemnation of Putin with Trump’s more neutral but perhaps more effective approach. This angered Zelenskyy who pointed out that Putin had not honored previous agreements. Then the shouting began.
It became clear that Zelenskyy did not truly want a cease-fire with Russia. Zelenskyy clearly thought that by making his disagreements with the Trump administration public, he could pressure Trump into changing the details of the deal he was attempting to work out. That was a mistake. Biden was easily swayed by such pressure but Trump is not Biden and the attempt only angered him.
I think Trump is more right than wrong. Zelenskyy does not have the leverage he thinks he has. As President Trump pointed out, without the aid the United States has been providing Ukraine, Ukraine cannot fight Russia. Even with the aid being given by both America and Europe, Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, unless American or European troops become directly involved in fighting against Russia. America will not send soldiers to fight in Ukraine because we do not want to fight a world war with Russia. It is doubtful the Europeans will send any soldiers despite their assurances of standing with Ukraine. Since Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, Zelenskyy’s best option is to take whatever deal he is given.
President Trump correctly pointed out that he gave more concrete military aid to Ukraine than either Obama or Biden had done before the Russian invasion. While Obama sent sheets, as Trump noted, he sent Javelin anti-tank missiles. During the altercationTrump didn’t mention that he had also warned the Europeans against dependence on Russian oil and natural gas. The Europeans ignored him.
Just before the shouting erupted, President Zelenskyy grew increasingly frustrated because President Trump would not condemn Putin. As Trump pointed out, however, you cannot call someone Hitler and then expect to be able to negotiate with him. Putin is indeed a dictator, a murderer, and an aggressor. Calling Putin a dictator, a murderer, and an aggressor is not going to get him to the bargaining table. In an ideal world, the Russians would be driven out of Ukrainian territory and Putin would be overthrown, to be replaced by a free and democratic Russia. We don’t live in that ideal world. In the real world, we must deal with the dictator, murderer, and aggressor to end the killing.
Naturally, Trump’s even-handed approach renewed claims that he is on Putin’s side- or even a Russian agent. This is nonsense. There are two views on the Russian-Ukrainian War. One view, held by the Democrats, many Republicans, most of Europe, and what might be called the foreign policy establishment, is that Russia is the foremost threat to peace. Putin is the twenty-first version of Hitler who must be stopped at all costs.
Trump and the America First Republicans have a different view. For them, it is China that is the main threat to the United States. China is far more powerful economically and militarily than Russia. In this view, Russia is not an adversary but a potential ally against China. At the least, we must prevent Russia from forming an alliance with China against the United States.
In this view the war in Ukraine is a distraction, keeping too many people from seeing the larger picture. The longer the war continues, the longer we will be distracted from our true opponent, China. Sanctioning and ostracizing Russia only serves to push Russia into an alliance with China. While rewarding Russian aggression is distasteful, ultimately we need Russia to help contain China more than we need Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Europeans believe they are defying the United States by threatening to go it alone in Ukraine. They are threatening to increase their own defense spending and perhaps send forces into Ukraine. Somehow, they fail to grasp that the United States has been asking them to shoulder more of their own defense burden for decades.
They seem to think that threatening to leave the “American Empire” will shame us into acceding to their wishes. But we never wanted an empire in Europe. We were quite content with our own hemisphere until the Europeans dragged us into their affairs by endangering global security with their incessant conflicts. We have kept the peace in Europe for eighty years with very little in the way of gratitude. If they wish to control their own affairs, they are welcome to it.
Of course, Europe cannot really go it alone, whatever its pretensions. There are only three countries that matter in today’s world: America, China, and Russia. In the end, Europe will have to align with one of the Big Three. If Europe continues to rely on Russian energy, rejecting American leadership will only place them under the influence of Russia. Perhaps they will have cause to regret their decision.
In the meantime, the killing will go on in Ukraine. Maybe Trump will get Zelenskyy to come back and negotiate. Most likely after he discovers the Europeans can only offer empty promises. Maybe Trump can get both sides in the conflict to see reason. If so, he will deserve the Nobel Peace Prize more than most recent recipients.
Get out snakes!
David's Commonplace Book 