Survey: Economists Expect AI to Drive Growth but Polarize the Job Market
This article combines insights from the 2025 Q4 Economic Expert Survey with existing research – which is featured in our new Forum issue – to examine how economic experts across the EU and the US expect artificial intelligence to affect growth and employment. So far, the literature has found only modest growth effects from AI. This survey finds that a larger share of economic experts anticipates more substantial productivity gains.
🔷 AI and GDP growth rate (next ten years)
🔸 Expected annual GDP gains range from +0.2pp (Finland, Slovenia) to 1.5pp (Croatia, Romania).
🔸 EU and US expectations broadly align at +0.5pp per year.
🔷 AI and economic growth (next five years)
🔸 For France, Italy, and Germany, experts anticipate effects in line or above the benchmark projections from the existing literature (Misch et al. 2026). Expectations in Denmark and Finland are more cautious.
🔸EU average: experts are more optimistic than in the literature: 2.5% vs. 1.1%.
🔸US experts’ expectations (2.5%) align with prior estimates (e.g. 2.6% and 3.4%) and far exceed the more conservative projections by Acemoğlu (0.3%).
🔷 Views on AI regulation
🔸 In all countries except Germany, a majority favors more (not less) AI regulation.
🔸 In Germany, 46% of experts call for less regulation, followed by Slovenia, Belgium, France, Finland, and Sweden.
🔸 EU average: 50% support stronger AI regulation vs. 19% deregulation.
🔷 AI and employment (next ten years)
🔸Job polarization: Mid-skilled occupations most adversely affected.
🔸Mid-skilled jobs: EU average of 61% expect decline, with particular strong concerns in France and a more positive outlook in Denmark. US experts expect an effect broadly comparable to the EU average.
🔸 Low-skilled jobs: A majority across the EU expect employment levels to either remain broadly unchanged (44%) or increase (19%).
🔸High-skilled jobs: A majority of experts in Finland (73%), Denmark (53%), Italy (52%), and the EU average (53%) expect growth.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
➡️ Regulatory frameworks, such as the EU AI Act, must be predictable and strike a balance: enabling innovation while managing risks.
➡️ Ensuring a start-up-friendly regulatory environment is essential for Europe’s competitiveness.
➡️ Reskilling, education and lifelong learning are key to prepare the workforce for the new future.
✅ Despite the expected labor market polarization – affecting not only medium-skilled workers but also white-collar roles – AI should be seen not only as a disruption, but as part of the solution to the challenges posed by demographic change.
Authors: Anita Dietrich, Oliver Falck, Philipp Heil, Niklas Potrafke, and Klaus Wohlrabe
READ THE FULL ARTICLE: https://lnkd.in/dhuDNSr8
#AI #FutureOfWork #EconomicGrowth #DigitalTransformation #EUGrowth #LaborMarket
