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Analysing the impact of exchange rate shocks on health tourism with SVAR analysis

Year 2025, Issue: 71, 33 - 40, 30.08.2025

Hilal Gündoğan , Kerim Coşkun , Süleyman Çelik

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1529057

Abstract

Health tourism, which has become a significant global market, offers economic opportunities for destinations. In particular, the rise in foreign exchange rates directly influences health tourism, impacting both tourism demand and revenues. Therefore, understanding the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on health tourism is critical for the sector’s future success. This study aims to empirically examine the extent and direction to which health tourism is affected by shocks in exchange rates. The research utilizes quarterly time series data from Türkiye covering the period from 2012:Q1 to Q1 2024:Q1. The Augmented ARDL test applied in the study reveals a long-term cointegrated relationship between exchange rates and health tourism. Furthermore, the causality test by Breitung and Candelon (2006) indicates that exchange rates have a causality effect on health tourism. Conversely, health tourism also influences exchange rates across short, medium, and long-term periods. The SVAR test results show that an increase in the exchange rate leads to an increase in health tourism. Nevertheless, the empirical findings suggest that the impact of exchange rate shocks on health tourism is relatively modest.

Keywords

Tourism Tourism economy Exchange rate SVAR analysis Türkiye

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Döviz kuru şoklarının sağlık turizmi üzerindeki etkisinin SVAR analizi ile incelenmesi

Year 2025, Issue: 71, 33 - 40, 30.08.2025

Hilal Gündoğan , Kerim Coşkun , Süleyman Çelik

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1529057

Abstract

Dünya genelinde önemli bir pazar haline gelen sağlık turizmi, destinasyonlar açısından ekonomik fırsatlar sağlamaktadır. Özellikle döviz kurunun artış göstermesi, sağlık turizmini doğrudan etkileyerek turizm talebi ve turizm gelirleri üzerinde etkili olmaktadır. Dolayısıyla döviz kurunda meydana gelen değişimlerin sağlık turizmindeki etkilerini anlamak, sektörün gelecekteki başarısı açısından kritik bir öneme sahiptir. Bu doğrultuda araştırmanın amacı sağlık turizminin döviz kurunda meydana gelen şoklardan ne ölçüde ve ne yönde etkilendiğini ampirik olarak incelemektir. Araştırmada Türkiye’nin 2012:Q1- 2024:Q1 yıllarına ait çeyrek dönemlik zaman serisi verileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada uygulanan Genişletilmiş ARDL testi analizi sonucunda döviz kuru ile sağlık turizmi arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik bir ilişkinin var olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca Breitung ve Candelon (2006) nedensellik testi sonucuna göre hem döviz kurunun sağlık turizmi üzerinde hem de sağlık turizminin döviz kuru üzerinde kısa, orta ve uzun dönemlerde nedensel etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmada uygulanan SVAR testi sonucuna göre döviz kurunda yaşanan artışın sağlık turizminde artış meydana getirdiği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bununla birlikte elde edilen ampirik bulgular döviz kuru şoklarının sağlık turizmi üzerindeki etkisinin çok yüksek olmadığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

Turizm Turizm ekonomisi Döviz kuru SVAR analizi Türkiye

References

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  • Dwyer, L., Forsyth, P., & Rao, P. (2002). Destination price competitiveness: Exchange rate changes versus domestic inflation. Journal of Travel Research, 40(3), 328-336. https:// doi.org/10.1177/004728750204000305
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Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Hilal Gündoğan 0000-0001-5395-7912

Kerim Coşkun 0000-0002-8963-0740

Süleyman Çelik 0000-0001-8999-0095

Early Pub Date August 26, 2025
Publication Date August 30, 2025
Submission Date August 6, 2024
Acceptance Date May 30, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Issue: 71

Cite

APA Gündoğan, H., Coşkun, K., & Çelik, S. (2025). Analysing the impact of exchange rate shocks on health tourism with SVAR analysis. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(71), 33-40. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1529057
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