Should we maximise equality or utility?

What matters more: maximising general well being or reducing inequality?


We seem to live in a world that tends to equate well-being with wealth and very much favours the former answer, sometimes to an extent that seems reckless and ruthless.

To protect wealth, amid our polycrisis, it is increasingly argued that the most vulnerable and the poorest should be abandoned. Austerity programmes are adopted; wealth taxes are pilloried; fossil fuels are to be extracted down to the last drop, with no regard paid to the climate vulnerable, even though whole parts of the world could be rendered uninhabitable.

Is there any moral justification to any of this?

In the earlier post “Is there a universal morality” we explored how respecting the wants and needs of others as equal to your own, provided they reciprocate, can be the only basis of a universal morality.

What does that principle imply when we come to decide whether to prioritise equality or utility?

So what do we mean by utility?


By utility we mean something similar to the “greatest happiness principle” of Utilitarianism, only instead of talking in terms purely of “happiness”, we are going to try and go a little deeper, and maintain that what sentient beings want, by definition, is satisfaction or “fulfilment”.

How does this relate to the “purpose of life”? Life can have no meaning or purpose that has worth to you unless it satisfies your nature at some level, unless you find it “fulfilling”. Would you accept a purpose imposed on you from without, which would negate everything you consider to have worth, and that would therefore leave you utterly unfulfilled?

Now it is possible that life has some deep purpose that would satisfy, and be fulfilling, for all minds. This would be the equivalent to the “Purpose” or “Meaning of Life” as normally conceived. However, we can not be certain that there is any such common, ultimately satisfying, purpose. Only your sense of what has, and has not, worth can give your own life purpose.

Seeking fulfilment is fundamental, but, when we interact with others and organise ourselves into societies, how should fulfilment be distributed?

Equality


The need to respect the wants and needs of others as much as one’s own, provided the favour is returned, unavoidably entails a strong commitment to equality, as everyone must accord equal respect to the wants and needs of everyone else.

Therefore no member of a moral community should, through action or even inaction, increase their own fulfilment at the expense of any other member of the moral community who already benefits from less fulfilment.

Therefore society must be organised so as to maximise equality, by ensuring no one gains fulfilment by reducing the fulfilment of anyone with less fulfilment than themselves.

This means that society should be organised to maximise the fulfilment of whoever then gets to be least fulfilled, noting that who specifically ends up least fulfilled would very likely vary as the exact social arrangements change. Otherwise we would not be respecting the wants and needs of whoever then gets to be least least fulfilled as equivalent to our own.

This principle also equates to “fairness” and “social justice”. It is not, it must be noted, a mandate for any form of “free loading” or indeed for any form of exploitation at all. Where work or effort in any way detracts from fulfilment, that work or effort should be counted against those workers’ fulfilment, meaning that, when assessing equality of fulfilment, those workers should enjoy sufficient total fulfilment to compensate for their sacrifices.

So what are are the implications of this notion of equality for the maximisation of utility?


Note that this commitment to equality does not require absolute equality of outcomes. It is radical but not “masochistic” egalitarianism. For example, it does not constrain the fulfilment of the most fulfilled in a moral community, provided those extra heights of fulfilment are not, in any way, obtained at the expense of the less fulfilled. For example, in so far as wealth contributes to fulfilment, it is not a mandate for everyone just being “equally poor”, unless, of course, being poor is what gives people fulfilment.

Where there are many ways our community could be organised that accord with the principle of equality, the one that should be adopted is the one that maximises open-ended fulfilment, where open-ended fulfilment is fulfilment that does not close off the possibility of obtaining still higher forms of fulfilment.

One source of fulfilment, which is both difficult to share and can result in some people being much more fulfilled than others, is the fulfilment we attain through our closest relationships. In many instances where we treat people better than others, it is because we have a duty of care, or are in a relationship of tight reciprocation, or some combination of both. Both of these types of relationships mean we have additional obligations to others but do not mandate, and morally cannot mandate, that, if there is a conflict of interests between those involved in such relationships and those who are not, but who are still respecting our wants and needs as much as their own, that we should prioritise the interests of the former over the latter.

Furthermore, the existence of these relationships, that involve treating others with extra care, is often pro-social because it generates general benefits. For example, conscientious child rearing on the part of parents both relieves the rest of society of the burden of child rearing and is likely to create more capable and prosocial adults. Such tightly bonded relationships can also serve as a broader exemplar or model to society as a whole: for example, the concept of “fraternity” very obviously derives from notions of kinship. Finally, as a source of comfort and fulfilment in their own right, such relationships can hugely improve well-being. A society where people are denied the fulfilment derived from close relationships would restrict the opportunities for fulfilment for all, including the least fulfilled. Therefore, these close relationships therefore do not violate our commitment to general equality.

This is, however, a radical egalitarianism, but one that follows inescapably from the principle that, provided the favour is returned, we should respect the wants and needs of others as much as our own, in other words, not be selfish. Amongst the implications of this principle of equality are that it is indeed true that, as stated by Nelson Mandela in “Long Walk to Freedom”, “A nation should not be judged by how it treats its highest citizens, but its lowest ones.” Any arrangement of living together in a moral community that benefits the least well off members of that community is to be preferred to other arrangements that do not help the least well off, even if those other arrangements would leave everyone else better off. Otherwise, the interests of the least well off are not being respected equally to those of the better off, thus violating this principle of universal morality.

It is also not the maximisation of total well-being at the expense of equality, thus avoiding some of the paradoxes that can arise with Utilitarianism. The most notorious of these conundrums involve justifications for slavery, such as those proposed in the Antebellum South of the US, including the “Mudsill Theory” that there must always be an underclass to support everyone else, where utility is maximised because the benefits to the non-enslaved outweigh the suffering of the enslaved. If more equality makes whoever would be worst off better off, even at the cost of reducing total well-being, then that increase in equality is moral.

So should we maximise equality or utility? The answer is neither or both. Really, we should increase equality by maximising the fulfilment of the whoever gets to be least fulfilled, while also maximising total fulfilment provided it does not in any way compromise the former commitment.

Why, if this moral imperative for equality is so simply derivable from basic morality, is it repeatedly ignored?


Most large-scale human societies, for all of history, have not maintained order primarily through a mutual respect of all for all, but rather by a combination of brute command, George Orwell’s image of a boot stamping on a face forever, and mass deception, from the divine mandate of ruling classes to “trickle-down economics”.

Nevertheless, the principle of universal morality, which is central to this explication, is essentially the Golden Rule of all mainstream religions. Formulations of this principle date back at least to the Ancient Egyptian story of “The Eloquent Peasant”, which is arguably also one of the oldest accounts of class conflict. This is unsurprising: this universal morality is, after all, the only way we can freely build populous societies of relative strangers.

However, the full implications of this universal morality challenge the selfish side of all of us, as well as the established power structures of nearly every human society that has ever existed. That the principle has repeatedly been muted, ignored or deceptively re-interpreted is tragically inevitable.

A time of crisis, though, is when we should seek guidance from our most foundational moral principles. Here the lesson is clear: the last people we should sacrifice are the poorest and most vulnerable.

Is there a universal morality?

In Cixin Liu’s acclaimed “Three Body Problem” trilogy all civilisations in the Universe are conceived as living in a “Dark Forest”. In this dog-eat-dog, or alien-exterminates-alien, vision, all cower in the blackness terrified of even being detected by each other, and always attempting to eliminate their rivals if they do. In this seemingly never-ending genocidal war of all against all, ferocious weapons have been developed that bend the laws of physics itself.

In particular, species attempt to literally crush their rivals by reducing the dimensions of their space. Step by grim step, a once spectacular n-dimensional Universe has been collapsed down to our mundane three dimensions by the expanding side-effects of these devices. Now weapons have been used that are rapidly reducing even our own meagre three dimensions down to two.

Is there a way to avoid the cold, ruthless, logic of the Dark Forest? In a reality where humans, a single species, and one that is among the top 5% of the most genetically uniform primates, are often lethally vile to each other, murdering and exploiting on scales from the individual to the tens of millions, like an army of evil but mutually loathing clones, could sentient beings with no shared origins ever find a way to live together?

Is there, in short, a universal morality?

Focussing down further on this question, what would it mean for a morality to be “universal” in the first place? We are going to assume that, in this context, “universal” means a morality capable of, at least conceivably, being freely and knowingly accepted by any being with any capacity to understand it. After all, would we accept a morality as universal if it didn’t have those characteristics?

By contrast, a non-universal morality means mere moral relativism, and then inevitably descending back into the Dark Forest, as then there are no principles regulating how participants in the different “moral relativisms” should behave towards each other. Therefore, if we seek a general or ultimate morality at all, no other form of morality is even possible. The only fundamental morality that can be proposed at all is one that could apply to all beings: a “universal” morality as just described.

Note that this morality isn’t god-given, for these beings won’t share the same gods, or any gods, nor is it something evolved, or hard-wired, and inherent, because these beings may not share the same origins. Rather, a universal morality has to be derived from reason alone, in the same way as a proof in game theory.

So what is this universal morality?

In a way, we are likely to know the answer already.

What is “moral” is to respect the wants and needs of others as equal to your own, provided they reciprocate, i.e., to not be needlessly selfish.

Otherwise we have to posit entities that would knowingly and freely submit to a system of morality that would not accord their deepest wants and needs, meaning whatever it is they hold most dear, the same respect as the wants and needs of other adherents of the same system of morality. That involves those beings having to act “freely” but also in a way that does not follow from their own motivations, which is internally contradictory.

As implied, respecting the wants and needs of others as equal to your own, provided they return the favour, may sound familiar. As humans have come to live together in ever larger groups, it is roughly the morality that we have hit upon semi-accidentally many times before. It is very close to the Golden Rule, with an extra emphasis on reciprocation, associated with many mainstream religions and forms of humanism.

For example, it is equivalent to the principle of “We must treat others as we wish others to treat us”, adopted as a “Global Ethic” by the Parliament of the World’s Religions, or the “treat others as you treat yourself” of the first millennium BCE Mahabharata. That’s because, in the final analysis, the “treatment” we expect of others is to respect our wants and needs as much as their own.

It shares with the Categorical Imperative, “act as if you are a universal legislator”, of the philosopher Immanuel Kant, as it encourages us to act as we want others to act, rather than acting in a way that advances our own interests but at the expense of others.

It shares with Utilitarianism the principle of equivalence of the well being of all. In other words, that I can not value my own well being higher than that of others, though with a stronger impetus towards equality rather than merely maximising total Utility.

In these times of “polycrisis” we need to rebuild our variously failing social systems from the bottom up. We need a strong moral foundation to do that. We must re-discover this universal morality, as otherwise it is the “Dark Forest”, in some form or other, for all of us.

Is Britain Broke?

Introduction

These days we are plagued by questions that roughly amount to “is Britain broke?”, and closely related inquiries such as “where did all the money go?”, or assertions such as “the government has run out of money.” Often, these statements are intended to frame a debate trying to justify yet more austerity, and are therefore, at a time when public services are creaking, destitution is rising and many are still suffering the effect of the cost of living crisis, very politically charged indeed.

Laying the groundwork

The below is an attempt to address these concerns in a rational, evidence-backed, and moral way.

To be clear, the moral assumption here is just that if we accept the need not to be selfish, meaning respecting the wants and needs of others as equally deserving as our own, provided they return the favour, then we are obliged to organise our society, including our economy, in such a way that whoever then gets to be the worst off is still better off than the worst off would be if we organised ourselves in any other way. After all, as the saying goes, there but for the grace of God, or simple dumb luck, go you.

Now, let’s refine the question. For starters, we should drop the alliteration: we mean the UK, specifically the people of the UK, not Great Britain. But what does “broke” mean?

Being “broke” means not having enough money to buy the things we need. Quantifying “need” is clearly open to debate, and that’s where moral considerations come in: to not be selfish, we have to treat the needs of whoever our social arrangements cause to be worst off more seriously than any other needs.

To become broke we need to run out of money, meaning that we have exhausted any savings, or wealth that can feasibly be converted into money. Therefore, another question arises: not just are we broke right now, but are “eating into” our stores of wealth? In other words, even if we aren’t broke, are we becoming broke?

Finally, money is an easily storable and exchangeable claim on resources: we use it to buy stuff. What matters if we run out of money is really that we then lose access to the resources we need. If we had direct access to all the resources we needed, such as place to live, food, clean water, energy and a capacity to manufacture goods, then we wouldn’t need money, and going broke wouldn’t matter. So the deeper question here isn’t is the UK broke, or going broke, but is the UK running out of resources.

To assess how our capacity to meet our needs is changing, especially as “need” is debatable, it is useful to have a point in time with which to compare. A moment where we are likely to agree that we had, as a society, a capacity to meet our “needs”, if not perfectly, for perfection is ever elusive, but adequately.

We are going to use 2008 as that reference year, because this was just before the Financial Crash, an event that still casts a long shadow over everything, as we shall see. Whatever, it’s faults, 2008, pre that Crash, pre-COVID, pre the war in the Ukraine, can seem like something of a golden age compared to our contemporary perceptions of creeping dystopia.

We will normally use 2023 as the end point of our analysis, simply because at the time of writing, 2025, that’s often the last year for which reliable statistics are currently nearly uniformly available across multiple datasets.

Also note this is a “whole economy” approach. What share of our combined resources we choose, or not, to devote to communal activities, through public spending, is up to us to decide democratically. It is a choice. Therefore the question “has the government run out of money?” is irrelevant: how much resource to use publicly, and administer through our different levels of government, is up to us. Provided we aren’t actually running out of real resources, of course.

Are we running out of resources?

Of course, we won’t be able to efficiently produce all the resources we need here in the UK, so some of the resources we produce here will have to be exchanged with resources produced elsewhere. So, as resources will often be produced for sale, i.e. converted into money, rather than used directly, it is the market value of resources, rather than “use value”, that we will need here. “Use value” is a meaningful and quantifiable concept (see gezwinstanley.wordpress.com/tulips-and-cryptocurrencies-is-speculation-theft for an example of how to quantify use value) and it isn’t the same as market value. For example, many essentials can be accessed freely, such as breathable air, meaning something with a value as great as life itself has zero price. Also, items caught up in asset bubbles can temporarily acquire hyper-inflated market values, as demand for the item is driven by buyers seeking to speculate on the market value of the item increasing still further, driving the price up yet more and feeding the bubble. However, the value of resources when we are extensively trading in resources is, by definition, market value, so we’ll have to stick to that for this analysis, even if market values often reflect the price of something and the real value of nothing.

So how has the market value of the UK’s total resources changed between 2008 and 2023?

First we should consider what’s called our net capital stock: the market value of the total supply of “made” resources, from homes to factories to intellectual property such as software. The “net” means that this figure attempts to allow for depreciation: that things wear out. In 2023 prices this value had increased from £4.8 trillion in 2008 to £5.8 trillion in 2023, so by roughly a trillion and 20.17%.

Secondly, we should consider natural resources, the market value of the total supply of non-made resources, those available just in the environment, which the UK was then able to utilise. This stock can increase because previously unavailable resources become accessible, e.g. we can exploit more renewable energy, or decrease due to resources being used up or as a result of environmental degradation. In 2023 prices, this value had increased from 1.2 £ trillion in 2008 to 1.7 £ trillion in 2023, so by roughly half a trillion and 42.78%. However, these types of “ecosystem services” statistics are still under development, not just methodologically but, to the extent that some of the component figures for 2008 and 2023 were missing, and had to be imputed on the basis that anything missing would form the same proportion of the total as it did in 2022, when complete figures are currently available. Therefore, we should use some caution here.

Then of course we have people: the total market value of the work that we could do. This has been estimated by taking the working population in 2008 and 2023 and multiplying by the corresponding average wage figures, converted to 2023 prices. The annual figures are £1.3 trillion in 2008 rising to £1.4 trillion in 2023. It would be useful to be able to simply add this figure to net capital and the total for natural resources. Technically, however, this would be difficult to do, as the annual value of our work is not a stock or a “level”, it is a flow or a rate. To calculate the market value of the total stock of labour we would need to derive at least an average figure for the value of work to be generated for the remaining working life of each worker. Then we would need to assert a “discount rate”, to turn future years potential earnings into what is technically called “net present value”. This is because, and with apologies for making this sound like a slave market, anyone “buying” the value of the worker’s work won’t be willing to pay as much for, say, the work 10 years in the future as this year’s work, because of all the uncertainties involved. This all involves so much guesswork that your conclusions will depend on the assumptions you make far more than anything “objective”. So, sorry, there is no complete total of UK resources being stated here, as there is no straightforward way to add the value of the labour force, as a resource, to the values of the stock of made and unmade resources. The trend in the value of the UK’s total labour resources is more meaningful, and this implies a real term growth of 5.57% from 2008 to 2023.

The larger our population then, provided that population is working, the more people we have to create resources. We also, though, have more people to supply, more “mouths to feed”. Therefore, we should look at what these changes in UK resource levels mean on a per capita basis. Economic figures that attempt to assert a population’s well-being on anything other than a per capita basis are at best incomplete and at worst not to be trusted.

From 2008 to 2023 the UK population has increased from 61 823 800 to 68 265 200, or by 10.42%.

That means that when we divide the total market value of labour resource by the population, we actually get a small decrease, of 4.39%. That’s because, from 2008 to 2023, the increase in that value has failed to keep up with the population increase, mainly because we had to use real-term average wage figures to estimate the market value of labour and real-term mean earnings (not median: it’s usually the median that gets quoted) fell by 2.46%, largely due to COVID and high inflation after 2021, but also because the proportion of the population that was of usually non working age (16 or under or 65 and over), or of working age but inactive, increased by 1.99%. Most of the latter increase was due to the ageing population, with the number of over 65s increasing by 30.63% from 2008 to 2023 (from 16.00% to 18.93% of the total UK population), where-as the number of 16 years old or younger increased by 6.56% and the number of people of working age but “inactive” increased by 0.99%, i.e. just under 1%.

The increases in both net capital stock and natural resources, however, more than kept pace with the population increase. In 2008, but in 2023 prices, per person “made stuff” had a value of £78 259. In 2023 the same figure is £85 168, so the per capita value has increased by 8.83%. Similarly, the per capita share of natural resources has increased, in 2023 prices, from £19 686.40 in 2008 to £25 455.50 in 2023, or by 29.30%.

Overall, there is no strong evidence that the “real resources” of the UK have shrunk from 2008 to 2023: on the contrary it is more likely these have increased, though the changing age composition of the population is an emerging challenge to which we should remain alert. We do not seem to be going broke in the sense that we are gradually running down our stock of resources, which is unsurprising given the propensity of “produced items” to accumulate faster than they depreciate, and continuing technological advancement.

However, these “stock of real resource” statistics are still under development, so we will also look at answering these questions in two other, more conventional, ways: how has our nation’s wealth and income changed since 2008?

(For methodology and sources see: Note 1 ).

Are we running out of wealth?

The data source we have used here defines “wealth” as: “Net national wealth is the total value of assets (cash, housing, bonds, equities, etc.) owned by the national economy, minus its debts. The national economy – in the national accounts sense – includes all domestic sectors, i.e. all entities that are resident of a given country (in the sense of their economic activity), whether they belong to the private sector, the corporate sector, the government sector. “. This therefore differs from real resources because it only includes things that are “owned” (ecosystem services are often not owned) and also includes financial assets.

In 2008, in 2023 prices, the net national wealth of the UK was £9.389 trillion, rising to £10.233 trillion in 2023, an increase of 8.98%. However, as we can see, this is lower than population growth, so per capita wealth falls slightly from £151882, in 2023 prices, in 2008, to £149904 in 2023, or by 1.3%.

Again, this fall was largely due to high inflation post COVID and Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, plus the higher interest used in an attempt to suppress that inflation. That meant the price rises of many assets did not keep pace with inflation and the face value of bonds fell. If, by money, we roughly really mean wealth measured in market value terms, that may be a small part of the explanation for our experience that the wealth has “gone” somewhere.

Of course, these are often “paper” values, which can fluctuate without the underlying “use value” of any “real resources” which those “paper” values represent changing. For example, a “house” doesn’t become less useful when house prices fall because interest rates have risen and choked off demand. There is one crucial exception to this pearl of wisdom, though. The “paper” value of something, it’s market value, is the value for which that item can be sold, with the returns then possibly used to buy real resources. Therefore levels of market value, and often purely financial, wealth have huge implications when it comes to being able to access real resources.

When we look at how the distribution of this wealth changed, though, we can further address the question of “where did the money go?”. From 2008 to 2023, in 2023 prices, the average per capita wealth of the wealthiest 1% of the UK population increased from £3 068 016 to £3 192 955.2, so from roughly 3.1 to 3.2 £ million, or by 4.07%. By contrast, from 2008 to 2023, in 2023 prices, the average per capita wealth of the poorest 50% of the population decreased from £19 137.13 to £14 090.98, or a fall of 26.37%. That means that in 2008 the average member of the top 1% had about 160 times the wealth of the average member of the bottom 1%, but by 2023 that factor had risen to about 227 times.

(For methodology and sources see Note 2)

Are we running out of income?

Another way we could be going broke is if our income is falling. Here we’ll measure national income in a fairly conventional way, as Gross Domestic Product, which can be interpreted as the sum of the income derived from all domestically produced goods and services in a given year. Note that Gross Domestic Product, unlike wealth or the sum of resources, is therefore a flow or rate, rather than a stock or a level.

UK GDP rose from 2.3 £ trillion in 2008 in 2023 prices to 2.7 £ trillion in 2023, or by 18.85%. In per capita terms that meant a rise from £37 000 a year in 2008 in 2023 prices to £40 000 a year in 2023, or by 7.64%.

Therefore, far from our national income falling, it has increased. Since the Financial Crash that increase has undoubtedly been slower than in previous historical periods, due to austerity, COVID and most recently energy price shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, with an added dose of Brexit, of being the first nation to impose sanctions on itself. However, an increase, in real, per capita terms, is still an increase: it is not going broke.

We should also ask if, as with wealth, the income figures provide any answers to “where did the money go” style questions. Now GDP is an aggregate figure for a nation as a whole: therefore there are no “GDP” figures for individuals or families. Therefore we will need to look at actual individual income statistics. We will use the same source as we did for wealth, which defines “Pre-tax national income” as “the sum of all pre-tax personal income flows accruing to the owners of the production factors, labour and capital, before taking into account the operation of the tax/transfer system, but after taking into account the operation of pension system .” Working from that source, the average per capita pre-tax income, in 2023 prices, for someone in the top 1% of earners, was £444 512 in 2008, rising to £445 728 in 2023, or increasing by 0.27%. For the bottom 50% of earners the corresponding figures were £12 691 in 2008, rising to £13 678 in 2023, or by 7.78%. This means that in 2008 the average person in the top 1% had an income 35 times that of the average person in the bottom 50%, while in 2023 the corresponding ratio was 32.6, so a slight 7% improvement in income inequality, likely mainly due to the “triple lock” alleviating pensioner poverty.

Looking again at the figures, that means that, on average, those in the top 1% received a rise of just over a thousand pounds from 2008 to 2023, while those in the bottom 50% received a rise of just under a thousand pounds, meaning that, very roughly, the increase in the national income since 2008 was distributed evenly between the two groups, slightly alleviating income inequality in relative terms. On the face of it, income inequality has not increased and there therefore isn’t any kind of answer here as to “where did the money go”. How do we then reconcile this with the very significant increase in wealth inequality? Shouldn’t people getting generally richer correlate with them earning more, both because higher earnings mean they can save more, and more riches generate higher earnings?

Now, as earnings increase the rate at which an individual can accumulate wealth tends to increase disproportionately: if they were able to save, say, 10% of their income before an increase, then, after a raise, and even if they spend much of the increase, they will have more surplus income than before and be able to save, not just 10% of their increased income but, say, 12%, so proportionately more and therefore potentially significantly absolutely more than before. Consequently, high earners can save much more than low earners, who very often can save nothing and are likely to be in debt. For any income inequality ratio the corresponding wealth inequality ratio is therefore likely to be much higher, so what we see here, a top 1% compared with bottom 50% income inequality ratio of 33 in 2023 but a wealth inequality ratio of 227 is unsurprising. However, by these considerations alone, that wealth inequality ratio, though very significant, should at least stay the same. The fact that high earners can save much more doesn’t explain how the wealth inequality ratio could increase from 160 in 2008 to 227 in 2023, unless income inequality was rising in proportional terms, which, as we have seen, it, generally and on average, wasn’t, at least when we compare the top 1% to the bottom 50%.

The likely explanation here is that wealth creates wealth, as most famously analysed by the economist Thomas Piketty, meaning that wealth tends to grow exponentially. There are two ways this can happen. One is pure “asset appreciation” where the “use-value” of owned resource stays constant but there is a “paper” increase in market value. This can happen because assets are in an asset price bubble, or it could happen because there is a fixed or very slowly growing supply of some asset, and shortage is driving up the price, or some mixture of both factors. The obvious example here is housing. Note that wealth can easily beget wealth in such a situation because the richest can hoard the assets, increasing the shortage and therefore further driving up the price to purchase or rent those assets. In this way, the wealthiest can enrich themselves while impoverishing everyone else: hence the claim that “the rich will own your Nan’s house,” made famous in the UK by anti-inequality campaigner Gary Stevenson. The other way wealth can beget wealth is more straight-forward: resources are acquired and invested to create still more resources, for example setting up a factory and increasing production in some way. Repeatedly, the wealth arising from either asset appreciation or expansion of production can be further invested to create still more wealth.

Nevertheless, we still have to ask, if wealth is creating wealth in this way why isn’t it showing up as an increase in proportionate income inequality? The answer is that the wealth created by wealth will tend not to show up as earnings within limited time-frames. If an asset simply increases in value that will not show up as a capital gain unless the asset is sold. If a company makes more profits those will not be paid out as dividends if the profits are re-invested: instead the value of the company will increase and, if it is listed, so normally would its share price. The wealth generated by many investment vehicles, such as private pension funds or stocks and shares ISAs where dividends are re-invested, will not show up as individual income until many years after it was generated.

Therefore, there is no inexplicable contradiction here between roughly flat income inequality over this fifteen year period but increasing wealth inequality, and therefore no reason to doubt that increase in wealth inequality, or that wealth inequality could go some way towards answering questions along the lines of “where did the money go”. Essentially, the average increases in the wealth of the richest currently includes a lot of the “deferred” increased income of the richest.

(For methodology and sources see Note 3)

How are our needs changing?

At this point it seems we are not, as a nation, going broke in any meaningful sense. Our stock of real resources and wealth seems to be reasonably healthy, and our national income has grown in real and per capita terms. If anything, we may start to suspect that the issues we are experiencing are more to do with maldistribution of our resources than any absolute shortage of resources.

However, there is another way in which we could, as a nation, be going broke, which is if our needs have grown so fast that our income hasn’t kept pace.

This begs the question of how to measure our changing “needs” as a nation. Population is part of that, which is why, in assessing all this, measures in per capita terms are essential. Beyond that, though, how are our needs, as a population, changing as the characteristics, and not just the size, of our population changes, and how is the cost of what we need changing? Are we, in short, having to spend more than we have coming in, using up more resources in real market value terms than we are creating?

The review of the stocks above: resources and wealth, would imply that the answer to that question is likely to be “no”, because if the answer was “yes” those would be running down consistently. However, we did identify a small likely per capita fall in the value of our labour resources and in our per capita wealth, though that seems attributable mainly to recent inflation in both cases, so let’s try and assess our needs in more detail to see what the challenges really are in terms of our changing needs.

To do that, we used the Treasury’s high level breakdowns of public spending, for 2008 and 2023, with everything converted to 2023 prices, and also, to get a handle on our private per capita average adult income, took GDP, subtracted the total public spending, and then divided what’s left across the population, in this case across everyone aged 20 or over. We will further assume that in 2008, as asserted when we were laying our groundwork for this analysis, we were roughly adequately meeting our needs. That means we need to assess how our needs have changed since 2008.

In 2008 total public spending was 886.83 £ billion, in 2023 prices, or 38.88% of GDP. When we follow the above methodology, we find that, in 2008, the per capita income left after deducting total public spending from GDP, in 2023 prices, was £29 735.64, rising to £30 356 on average in 2023, so a real terms increase of 2.09%. Also note, that these are the average per capita income figures after we have subtracted public spending, they are free of all taxes, fees and fines, free of everything from direct taxes such as income tax, national insurance or council tax through indirect taxes such as VAT or stamp duty to fees, such as the cost of passport renewal.

Again, then, we see a pattern of low growth, but still very much not, as a society, going broke.

However, the fifteen years after 2008 and the Financial Crisis were years of austerity. We will define “austerity” here meaning not simply real term cuts in public spending, but instead changes to public spending that mean that services can no longer meet needs as effectively as they did before. If needs for a public service are increasing faster than general inflation, say due to changes in the size of a component of the population, or cost pressures rising more than general inflation in this area of activity, then a budget can increase in real terms, but still be an austerity budget, because needs that were previously being addressed are now being left unmet, causing harm to the general public. In the case of what has happened since 2008, various studies link austerity to hundreds of thousands of excess deaths (for example, see this British Medical Journal report: jech.bmj.com/content/76/12/1027).

So we are left with having to assess how needs, quantified in terms of the spending required to meet those needs, has changed from 2008 to 2023. To do this, we again took the Treasury’s high level breakdowns of public spending for 2008, converted to 2023 prices. Then we increased each of the budgets to allow for population growth, except for two particular areas which we increased even more. Those budgets where we applied higher increases are health and social care. For healthcare we applied the average figure for real term increases in NHS spending for the first 70 years after its foundation, which is 3.7% a year, for fifteen years, to the 2008 figure for health spending in 2023 prices. For the social care (personal social services) component of the overall social protection budget we scaled the budget not by general population growth but by the higher growth in the number of people aged 65 or over. For each sector of spending, we then took whichever was the higher figure: the actual figure for 2023 or our projected figure.

This resulted in a projected, non-austere total public spending for 2023 of 1197.16 £ billion, or 44.16% of GDP. For comparison, the actual total of public spending in 2023 was 1114.3 £ billion, or 41.10% of GDP. For more context, according to the OECD, “General government expenditures across the OECD averaged 42.6% of GDP in 2023,” and “On average public spending in OECD countries that are also EU members was at 49.3% of GDP in 2024” (See : https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/06/government-at-a-glance-2025_70e14c6c/full-report/general-government-expenditures_395dfea8.html). Neither of these GDP shares is therefore unusually high.

We may ask what are the reasons for the 3.7% annual long-term real term growth figure for health spending. If spending had followed that trend from 2008 to 2023 that would have meant a 72.5% real term increase over 15 years, instead of the actual 42.48% real term increase, and 29.04% real term and per capita increase, that did occur. There are many reasons, though, why it is very likely that underlying need for healthcare increased at rate closer to the long term 3.7%. These include, as well as an increasing population, an ageing population, with higher incidence of co-morbidities, and more expensive drugs. In more recent years, we could add the bed-blocking caused by over-stretched social care, the aftermath of COVID, under-funding of capital investment, and staff shortages leading to expensive back-filling with private resources, such as agency doctors and nurses, and what could be an emerging mental health crisis. Of course, by putatively fixing social care through our hypothetical non-austere public spending, we should have solved the “bed blocking” problem, and the NHS staff recruitment and capital investment issues, but those were only recent factors contributing to long term increases in health spending, which extend back to periods where the social care wasn’t in crisis and the NHS was adequately funded. We also wouldn’t have neglected mental health spending for as long as we actually did. Though those are examples of how austerity is counter-productive, serving in the longer term to increase rather than decrease costs, overall 3.7% is a reasonable figure to use here, in the absence of any other.

The ageing population is especially notable. Any glance at projections of how the composition of our population will change will create the impression that we will have to cope with an ever increasing proportion of older people indefinitely. However, it is vital to understand that the proportion of older people in a population tends to change for two main reasons: increasing life expectancy and the ageing of a higher birth cohort who were actually born decades ago. In the former case, provided we triage provision of healthcare more to quality of life rather than basic life extension, increasing life expectancy should also mean an increasing “healthspan”. In this situation, we can sustain a larger older population by retiring later, while still enjoying as many years of actual and active retirement as previous generations, or perhaps even more years, if we retain the duration of retirement as a proportion of life. The second case, where an ageing population is due to births over a certain period being higher than later equivalent periods, and then those people simply growing older, is more difficult, as there is no reason to believe that those elderly people will be any healthier than previous cohorts of the elderly, as there is when life expectancies increase. However, this challenge, which is obviously the one we face with the “Baby Boomer” generation born in the couple of decades after the end of the Second World War, can be temporary. The simplest, and most responsible, way to deal with this is to accept the need for higher spending and higher taxes while the “Baby Boomer” generation passes through its old age.

Now, this is back-of-the-envelope, but having roughly factored out austerity we end up, after we have subtracted these increased, non-austere, totals for public spending from GDP, with a per capita, for everyone aged 20 or over, after tax income in 2023, in 2023 prices, of £28 781.

Note that this is slightly lower than the equivalent 2008 figure of £29 736, a decrease of 3.21%, but in exchange for fixed public services, including a fully functional NHS, social care and social housing being provided at 2008 levels, continuing NHS dentistry and fewer potholes. As public spending provides most of us with benefits in kind, or “transfer payments” in the jargon, it is possible that would, for most people, more than compensate for the implied £955 annual loss even in pure cash terms. Moreover, without austerity public services are likely to have been provided more cost-effectively: for example, better healthcare means lower benefit payments to cover long-term sickness and more people able to work and pay taxes. Therefore, it is more likely than not that the non-austerity picture being painted here is over-pessimistic, and without austerity we could have both preserved public services and still had the same or more disposable income left-over than in 2008. As we have seen, austerity is usually penny-wise but pound foolish. In terms of public services, and the economy as a whole, it is like trying to save money by avoiding regular car maintenance, only to have the car then explode.

Also, of course, the extra public spending would, in and of itself, directly add to GDP. However, resources are finite, so unless the public spending is tapping into resources that are currently under-utilised, such as people who are under-employed, or workless, or relatively unproductive due to under-investment, resources would end up used by the public sector that would otherwise have been used by the private sector. So the public spending would net add to GDP where it mobilises otherwise under-used resources, or where it ultimately uses those resources to produce more market value than the private sector. Again we’re talking market value here: as the public sector tends to supply the most essential services, it is likely that a given amount of public sector investment would produce more use value than the same amount of private sector spending, on average. The public sector responds to needs that are expressed democratically, with the requirements of every voter, in theory at least, meant to be given equal weight, where-as the demands that are best served by the market are those of the customers with the greatest ability to pay. However, GDP, for good or ill, isn’t measured in use value, so for now use value isn’t relevant.

The usual assumption is that the public sector will use any resources it acquires less efficiently than the private sector, in terms of market value output for market value input, because private sector activity is honed by competition. This isn’t, however, necessarily the case. The private sector has to competitively work for a profit, and continually seek to maximise that profit. That means not only that there’s an extra margin to pay for any services provided on a profit-making basis, but that businesses have to compete ruthlessly, to grow or die. That makes enterprises focus relentlessly on the just mentioned efficiency, but it also means that they are amoral, and will exploit customers, workers and suppliers if given the chance. Private enterprise has to prioritise its own short term concerns: co-operation and long term planning, or inadvertently conferring advantages to competitors, have to be avoided as impediments to the unforgiving necessity of continuously having to outgrow rivals. So whether to go for public or private spending depends on the context. If the market value to be generated by some spending is of a general benefit that cannot easily be monopolised and there-by monetised, and a public good such as street-lighting is the example often given here, or form an intervention that is part of a wider or longer-term plan coordinating different aspects of the economy, or utilise resources than the private sector would otherwise ignore, such as employing the workless and so bootstrapping an economy out of a slump, then public spending can be more efficient, in terms of bang for the buck in increased GDP, than private sector spending.

A telling example here is the development and deployment of the COVID vaccines. As knowledge is very difficult to monopolise and therefore monetise, and as Big Pharma did not want to waste its resources on preparing for a pandemic that might never happen, all the basic research here was done with public and charitable funding. When the pandemic hit, governments allowed various pharmaceutical companies to use that research to manufacture and distribute specific vaccines at pace, which they did efficiently and effectively, saving at least an estimated 20 million lives (according to an Imperial College London study cited here: www.covidvaccineresearch.org/news/covid-19-vaccines-prevented-20-million-deaths-worldwide-first-year-estimates-imperial). As part of the deal, though, the pharmaceutical companies were allowed exclusive patents on the vaccines. As it did not suit Big Pharma’s profits to allow poorer countries to manufacture their own versions of these vaccines, the pharmaceutical companies lobbied their governments to reject calls for a waiver of their patent rights. As a consequence millions more died unnecessarily (see for example www.globaljustice.org.uk/news/over-10000-people-die-every-day-the-uk-blocks-covid-vaccine-patent-waiver , which arrives at a rough estimate of 3.7 million). The private sector can be very effective at commercial production, but completely ineffective at managing any form of public good or addressing the needs of those who are unable to pay.

Let’s do a thought experiment. Conventional wisdom would have it that before we can, say, turn someone into an additional nurse, we have to grow the rest of the economy first, to generate the taxes needed to pay for the nurse. So, for example, a government, through the creation of the right incentives, including often tax cuts and deregulation, could encourage a stationary supply company in Slough to increase its paper-clips sales. That company would then perhaps hire more workers, or pay them more, thus allowing the government to receive more tax from those workers, or from the profits of the company itself, and through the VAT paid by customers when they buy the paper clips. Then, and only then, can the extra taxes pay for the additional nurse.

This is, of course, nonsense, that gaslights us into thinking of a whole range of public services as just “overheads” supported by a real, market economy, rather than as essential services and vital “economic goods” in their own right. The government should just go right ahead and pay for the nurse. It doesn’t even need to wait for tax receipts first, as logically governments have to create money before anyone can pay that money back to governments as taxes.

But is training the person in question to be a nurse a less efficient use of resources than, say, them becoming a manager at our stationary supply company? That seems very unlikely indeed. Clearly, in terms of improving our health, the nurse has considerable use value, but what about market value? Here we should note that the nurse helps to produce a succession of fixed patients, many of whom can return to being economically productive in their right.

On balance, it is very likely that less austerity would therefore have meant a higher GDP, allowing both increased tax returns and more disposable income, making our figures above pessimistic. Nevertheless, even making those very pessimistic assumptions, we would still be able to reverse austerity and meet our needs roughly as well as in 2008. It’s tight, and some economic growth, of the right kind, would be welcome to make it less of a squeeze, and to shield us against future shocks, but our needs have not rocketed away from our means.

Despite this we have chosen not even to meet our most basic needs, as we shall see next.

(For methodology and sources see Note 4)

Rising destitution.

Remember that when setting out the groundwork for this analysis we made the moral assumption that we need to avoid being selfish, meaning that we are obliged to respect the wants and needs of others as equally deserving as our own, provided they return the favour.

The upshot is that, at any time, we must prioritise the needs of the worst off. This moral assumption compels us to strive for equality by levelling up, because we have to regard everyone’s needs as equally deserving as our own.

Through this lens, our austere economy has failed miserably, because, since 2008, the worst off have become considerably worse off. This effect, though, isn’t immediately obvious if you look at the long term standard statistics on poverty, such as the percentage of households with absolutely low income or relatively low income, measured as people living in households with income below 60% of median income. In the absolute case, the median income used for comparison is from a base year, currently 2010/11, while the relative poverty figures use each year’s median income. In both cases, though, all figures are adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index.

To be specific, in 2008/9 18% of individuals were receiving relatively low income, and 17% receiving absolutely low income, as compared to 17% and 15% respectively in 2023/4. ( www.gov.uk/government/statistics/households-below-average-income-for-financial-years-ending-1995-to-2024 ). On the face of it, that means poverty is improving, and that is consistent with what the income figures we cited above showed for the poorer half of the population too.

How then do we then explain that, according to the Trussell Trust, the number of emergency food parcels they distribute has gone from mere thousands in 2008 (barely showing up in this graph in section 2.2 of the House of Commons report here: researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9209/CBP-9209.pdf) to 3.1 million in 2023/4, consistent with the general impression that food banks were barely “a thing” back then, but are now commonplace? Similarly, there has been a dramatic rise in homelessness over the same period, with the number of households in temporary accommodation increasing from 67 480 in Q4 2008 to 112 620 in Q4 2023 (according to the UK government homelessness figures here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/StatHomeless_202503) , a rise of 66.89%, or still a rise of 51.15% even after we remove underlying population growth?

This is the issue of increasing destitution, which has now drawn sufficient attention that attempts are being made to define and measure it more generally. For example, the charity the Joseph Rowntree Foundation now assesses “destitution” regularly, which it defines as “Destitution denotes the most severe form of material hardship. People are considered destitute if they have not been able to meet their most basic physical needs to stay warm, dry, clean and fed.” The charity estimates that “over the five years between 2017 and 2022, the number of households facing destitution more than doubled, with even higher increases for people overall and for children.”

These statistics on destitution do not extend back to 2008: hence our use of food parcel and homelessness figures above. It means, despite all the data above that we are not worse off as a nation than in 2008, and overall very likely slightly better off, our economy is doing a worse job in 2023 than in 2008 in terms of ensuring everyone’s basic needs are met, such as shelter and food. Our awareness of this issue is another reason why we often wonder “where did all the money go”? So how can we reconcile this with the apparent improvements in the low income statistics above?

The answer is that the inflation experienced by the poorest is different. During the post COVID and invasion of the Ukraine period, that has been very obviously the case with heating and food inflation usually outstripping most other items. In terms of another essential, which is rental costs, this has been a trend for far longer. As these are all necessities for survival, and the spending of the poorest has to be focussed primarily on necessities, the poorest are affected by high inflation in the “basics” more than anyone else.

The poorest almost always have to rent their own homes. So how did rental costs change between 2008 and 2023? The ONS Price Index of Private Rents only extends back to 2015, but the increase from Jan 2015 to December 2023 implies an average annual increase at a rate of 3.18%, or a total increase over fifteen years of 160.03%.

Similarly, the ONS collates statistics for household cost indices by income decile, and the “all items” index for the poorest tenth of the UK population, by income, shows costs increasing by 162.18% from April 2008 to April 2023. For comparison, general inflation in the economy from the financial year 2008/9 to 2023/4 was 143.14%.

The poorest are clearly experiencing much higher inflation. To illustrate what that means, taking the UK official government earning figures for households with below average income, to derive an annual income for the poorest tenth, this income, in terms of those poorest households’ actual purchasing power, in 2023 prices, fell from £13668.75 in 2008 to £12220.00 in 2023. That is a decrease of 10.60% and easily explains why people, already struggling to keep a roof over their heads and who may be falling ever deeper into debt, are being driven to food banks and into homelessness.

Above we discovered that, for someone in the top 1% of earners, in 2023 prices, average income rose from £444 512 in 2008 to £445 728 in 2023. That is with 2023 prices adjusted for general inflation across the economy. As the richest have been much less affected by the price increases in life’s basics, and instead often see the flip side of that, such as receiving rather than paying those higher rents, we have likely seen a situation where, in terms of effective purchasing power, the rich have got richer and the poorest, those most in need, who should morally be society’s priority, have got poorer.

Despite the fact that there is no evidence the UK is, in any sense, going broke, with us, instead, having had the capacity, as a society as a whole, to end austerity at any point, we were less willing to feed and shelter the entirety of our population in 2023 than in 2008. This was clearly not a matter of economic necessity, but a political choice. Not only is there a strong economic case for ending austerity, but the moral case for ending austerity measures such as the housing benefit freeze and the two child benefit cap, seems overwhelming.

(For methodology and sources see Note 5)

Could we go broke in the longer term?

So, in terms of public spending, our society clearly has critical unmet needs. In practice, we were never, as a society as a whole, broke and could have resolved that problem with some combination of money creation, increased public borrowing to invest and higher, and more progressive, taxes. As austerity is self-defeating, our economy would then, almost certainly, have been healthier as a result, plus we would have properly functioning public services and much less desperation.

We have seen, though, that our needs are likely to grow faster than our population for the foreseeable future, because of our ageing population and the increasing costs of healthcare. Some per capita growth is therefore required if we want to avoid continually increasing public spending as a share of GDP, including addressing the concern that such a trend is not sustainable indefinitely. However, it has to be the right kind of growth. We need growth directly targetted to meet real human needs and that lowers the carbon intensity of our society. The simple answer to the growth or “de-growth to save a habitable planet” argument is that it depends on exactly what is growing..

What pace of growth are we talking about here? As just stated, let’s assume that we want to keep public spending as a constant proportion of the economy. In practice some temporary growth in proportional terms may be justifiable as the Baby Boom birth cohort passes through old age, but let’s keep this constraint as described, at least for the purposes of illustration. Then let’s calculate the average economic growth needed to match the growth in public spending from 2008, in 2023 prices, to 2023, but not to actual public spending in 2023, which was highly deficient, but to our projected, and arguably pessimistically high, non-austere public spending. This means our GDP would need to grow by 2% a year to keep pace with our needs. We should remove population growth from that figure, as otherwise we could cheat and “grow” our economy just by importing more people. When we do that, we find we would need to grow our per capita GDP by 1.35% a year. That is not historically very high, but it is nearly three times the actual average annual growth in per capita GDP over this fifteen years, which is 0.49%.

So how can we grow our economy? It would overwhelm this article to even attempt to make detailed plans here, but a few points should be obvious.

Economic growth is about using existing resources as efficiently as possible to create new resources. Though this means focussing on what is termed the supply side of the economy, use and misuse of resources often happens because of issues of demand. The right level and pattern of demand can stimulate resources to be used in a way that is broadly beneficial across the population, Both austerity and inequality, two phenomena currently so causally inter-related it is sometimes difficult to prise them apart, damage demand in ways that discourages an efficient use of resources. A concentration in spending power among the very richest can stifle demand and result in under-utilisation of resources, as the richest save a much larger proportion of their income than the poorest, and often do so off-shore or in safe havens such as gold, or in speculation on the stock markets, rather than as genuine investment in the domestic economy. The spending the richest actually do can also cause a misallocation of resources, perhaps directing productive capacity towards luxuries rather than essentials or meaning that critical resources, such as housing, get hoarded. Similarly, austerity can mean that investing in essential “public goods”, such as the health of the population, gets neglected, or that coordination problems, such as mobilising resources in such a way to grow the economy as a whole, don’t get solved.

So reversing austerity, and reducing inequality by levelling up, starting with the poorest, in itself will promote economic growth, and most likely growth of a more responsible kind that better meets general needs. Everyone would feel the benefits of such growth, and not just the richest.

The main solution was half-accidentally already arrived at in the mid 20th Century, with the New Deal in the USA and especially with the subsequent war economies, which ended the long stagnation of the Great Depression and gradually initiated a long period of economic boom. We need an “industrial strategy” and the stimulus of public investment targetted to achieve that strategy.

That “industrial strategy” should concentrate on addressing fundamental resource bottlenecks, and do so with direct public investment rather than tinkering with incentives and deregulation or re-regulation in the hope we can cross our fingers and let markets pick up the slack. Very often we are talking here about coordination problems and public goods issues that markets can never address.

Firstly, we should reduce our crippling energy costs. Breaking the link of energy prices with gas prices is an obvious first step. Then we need to expand our energy generating capacity. Not wasting the second highest tidal range in the world by building a tidal reef across the Bristol Channel is something that is long overdue. Some of the energy generated could then be used to supply the nearby steelworks of south Wales with cheap, green hydrogen, allowing a renaissance of British steel making in a sustainable, carbon neutral, form. Expanding wind power: the cheapest form of energy generation in the UK, is equally obvious. We should also consider more geothermal energy, including newly emerging possibilities for deep geothermal.

Then we should get on with building new homes. Here we should consider using new approaches to make efficiency improvements in construction, including automated 3D printing and, as we did after World War Two, greater use of prefabrication. There is no reason to carry on building homes like we did in the Middle Ages, so there is considerable scope for improvements in productivity and efficiency. The new homes should also be cheaper to run, with better insulation and built in energy generation such as solar or heat pumps, and rainwater capture to reduce water charges. We could also ensure that these new homes are better adapted for multi-generation use, allowing people to stay in their homes longer and so reduce demands on social care, for example by specifying that all staircases should be designed in such a way as to allow cheap retro-fitting with stair-lifts as and when needed.

Similarly, we need to get food inflation under control by modernising food production and better ensuring food security. Livestock farming uses considerable amounts of land and water, and is carbon intensive, so we could, for example, encourage more precision fermented, factory-produced, food by mandating that all public sector catering contracts have to replace meat with these products, giving this sector of our economy a huge boost, while livestock farmers could be financially incentivised to shift their land over to use for carbon sequestration, recreation and nature restoration.

We should resolve our multiple public health crises investing more in the NHS and taking other steps too. We would train more medical staff, and restore NHS capital investment, equipping the NHS with technologies best able to drive its efficiency, such as AI to assist with patient monitoring and diagnostics and more digitally-enabled services that could be accessed from home. We should also create a publicly owned pharmaceutical and biomedical treatments company. That can do multiple things for us: boost still further our already world-leading biotech industry, reduce our reliance on often US based Big Pharma, make cheaper drugs and treatments available to the NHS and concentrate efforts on finding cures and extending “healthspan”, rather than simple lifespan, something that Big Pharma will tend never to prioritise, as creating long-term dependency on their products is much more profitable. Such an enterprise should also dramatically improve our defences against the next pandemic and antibiotic resistant infection, other areas Big Pharma inevitably neglects.

We should create a National Care Service, ending bed-blocking in the NHS and saving multiple local authorities from bankruptcy. This should be cheaper to run than the current almost entirely privatised system, because of economies of scale and the elimination of profit taking, plus reduced property related costs, as well as improving standards of care.

We would restore community recreational facilities and per capita funding for youth services and mental health, while, with an actual vision of a liveable future backed with real investment, perhaps, with some hope restored, the mental health of all us can improve, reducing long term sickness, welfare costs and pressure on the NHS.

All of this requires the right skill gaps to be plugged, which brings us onto another economic fundamental: to create new services providing vocational training, both to young people and adults seeking retaining. This would increase the value of one of our most key resources: ourselves.

What we should not do: continue with austerity, scapegoat migrants, abandon our climate change commitments or attempt to deal with the temporary problem of heightened elder-care by having more babies.

After 15 years it is totally obvious that austerity hasn’t worked: in fact it has crippled our public services and scarred our economy.

We could blame migrants, except for the fact that, according to the experts in the field such as the Oxford Migration Observatory, the overall long term fiscal impact of migration is most likely roughly zero (migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-in-the-uk). Whenever we increase the population we increase the demand for everything our economy provides, from houses to medical services, but it’s often forgotten, or deliberately overlooked, that we also increase supply: the number of workers, say builders and doctors, and the number of tax-payers. Given that migrants tend to be young adults, in the short term, before they have their own kids and themselves grow old, their economic impact is likely to be positive. If we are to reconstruct our economy, migration, along with retraining those of us already here, it will also be essential to quickly plug skill gaps.

We could abandon all efforts to decarbonise our economy. There are a few issues with that one. Firstly, it may not save any money: for example with wind power now the cheapest way to generate energy in the UK. Secondly, we fail to build the industries of the future, so becoming uncompetitive on the global stage in the longer term. Thirdly, we betray the rest of humanity and make civilisation destroying climate catastrophe much more likely. However small our emissions are now compared to, say, China’s, as the first nation to industrialise we have used up, relative to the size of our population, a disproportionate amount of humanity’s carbon budget. We are also still, despite our difficulties, one of the richer nations on Earth. If we fail to keep our carbon commitments, why should the rest of the world even attempt to do so? If everyone does the same, and “defects” (we are back to coordination problems here) then we are quite simply doomed. The problems we are already experiencing, storm damaged buildings, floods, wildfires, heatwaves and water-shortages, then compound with massive movements of people, as some regions of the planet become uninhabitable, with harvest failures, lethal heat-waves and mega-droughts, leading to global unrest and escalating warfare that sooner or later turns nuclear. All of which would be rather apocalyptic for economic growth, as well as everything else.

We could have more babies, to improve the ratio of younger people to older people. Again there are issues here, not least of which is who it is who actually has to have the babies?Then there’s the environmental cost of more humans in a relatively high consuming country. Finally, as a “solution” this actually adds to our “needs” for a couple of decades: the “babies” don’t turn into productive adults for many years. So, far from being a solution, this actually adds to our challenges. If, instead, stopping fertility rates falling further is the concern, it should be noted that people may choose not to have children when struggling to keep a roof over their heads, or when they have no hope for the future.

How do we raise the money to “bootstrap” our economy back into responsible, moderate growth?

In the end, the measures above pay for themselves by creating further and fair economic growth, but where do we get the initial “seed capital” from to fund those measures in the first place? How can we, as it were, “pull ourselves up by our own boot-laces”.

Firstly, we can no longer simply create the money, like we did with Quantitative Easing (QE) when the Bank of England created money and used it overwhelmingly to buy back government debt. Originally, QE was meant as a time limited intervention just to prop up the banking system and keep money flowing after the crash. In the end, to deal with first the Financial Crisis, then COVID, and a bit of Brexit, nearly a trillion pounds was created in this way over more than a decade, with QE being used to directly finance government spending, as government debt was immediately bought back after issue. Unfortunately, though, the current situation is inflationary, where-as those crises were deflationary. Right now, at a time where we are still significantly missing targets on inflation, increasing the money supply in this way would risk undermining confidence in sterling and fuelling yet more inflation.

However, recently the Bank of England hasn’t been doing QE, but it’s opposite, Quantitative Tightening (QT). Now that means selling the government debt it owns back to the private sector, in other words effectively borrowing the money again, as then the public sector no longer owns its owns debts, and cancelling out the money so received.

Governments like to pretend that isn’t really increasing the debts, because the debts bought back by the Bank of England were retained within the total of government debt. Arguably, QE is best thought of as “deferred borrowing”.

At the end of the day, though, it is likely that there was so much “deferred borrowing” that the consequences of turning all that currently Bank of England owned debt back into real debt will be disastrous, and we’d be better of keeping that debt deferred infinitely, perhaps forever, and not cancelling out all that money. After all, it isn’t as if the crises ever stopped happening, and, as we said above, unless inflation is again replaced by potential deflation, re-creating the funds destroyed by doing further QE can’t happen because it would be too risky.

Sadly, right now the Bank of England is adhering to a target of turning £100 billion of deferred borrowing into real borrowing each year. By June 2025, the government debts that were still owned by the Bank of England were down to 590 £ billion. (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/asset-purchase-facility/2025/2025-q2)

This means a few things that have extremely deleterious effects on the public finances and tend to lock in austerity. The most obvious is that, once the debts are returned to the markets, we have to pay interest on those debts. The second is that, as the real debt piles up, the government becomes less credit-worthy, so less able to borrow to invest, rather than simply borrow to cancel out QE. That, and the simple amount of debt on sale, pushes up the interest rates the government has to pay, so not only do we have to start to pay interest on debts that were previously effectively interest free because they were held at the Bank of England, but we also have to pay a higher interest rate on any new borrowing. (Note that new borrowing also includes what the Bank of England needs to raise to pay off the principal of government debts it owns that mature, with the money borrowed then again simply being cancelled out). Finally, because the interest on government debts, or “gilts” as they are known, is usually fixed, the higher the interest rates, the lower the re-sale of the gilts. Therefore the Bank of England is also making significant losses when it sells these government debts, bought by QE, back to the markets. These losses are already in the tens of billions, and the Office of Budgetary Responsibility estimating that the losses associated with QE and QT will eventually total roughly £63 billion (https://obr.uk/box/the-lifetime-impact-of-quantitative-easing-and-quantitative-tightening).

This is a crazy, dogmatic policy that starts to look like a deliberate attempt to undermine the public sector and force “permanent austerity”, on the part of a Bank of England far too close to our financial institutions and the richest in society. Nor is the Bank of England doing this to fight inflation, as it says of its own QT programme that “the impact on activity and inflation is also likely to have been small” (Quantitative Tightening: House of Commons Committee Report publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5804/cmselect/cmtreasy/219/report.html)

We should stop QT immediately, if it isn’t already too late. Creating another approximately £0.5 trillion of real public debt just to cancel out QE is cruel and irresponsible.

The other thing we can do is to reduce the interest we pay on the commercial bank reserves at the Bank of England, by tiering the interest rates in the way already done by the European Central Bank (ECB). This measure can be linked to stopping QT, because one of the arguments made for doing QT, and reversing QE, is that all the money created by QE really sits in these reserves. These reserves are actually the ultimate “electronic money” backing all other money in our economy, as it is these reserves that the commercial banks use to “settle” with each other at the end of each day of banking. Reversing QE therefore reduces the size of the reserves. That can have some risks, like increasing the chance of a run on the banks, but it does mean the Bank of England has to pay less interest on the reserves. That means that provided the interest we now have to pay on gilts sold back to the markets is lower than the “base rate” we pay on those commercial bank reserves, and that is often the case as the interest on many of those gilts was fixed at a time when interest rates were lower, then we can actually reduce our interest payments.

That argument loses its cogency when we realize that we don’t have to pay interest on those reserves to the commercial banks in the first place. Arguably, we could even be justified in charging the banks for the use of this facility, just like commercial banks now charge customers for some current accounts. The Bank of England only started paying interest in reserves in 2006, and does so for two reasons: to increase the stability of the banking system by encouraging each bank to hold at least a minimum amount of reserves, and to influence interest rates charged generally, by setting a floor for rates. Both those objectives could be achieved, though, by paying zero or a lower rate of interest on a base level of reserves, and a higher rate of interest on any reserves above that base, i.e. tiering the interest rates in a similar way to already done by, for example, the ECB and the Bank of Japan. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies in 2022, tiering the interest rates would have have saved “between around £30 billion and £45 billion over each of the next two financial years ” (ifs.org.uk/publications/quantitative-easing-monetary-policy-implementation-and-public-finances).

Again, we can only deduce that the Bank of England is far too close to the City of London.

According to the same Treasury breakdown of spending we used above, since 2008 interest payments on the public debt have been the faster growing component of the budget, increasing, in 2023 prices, from 70.24 £ billion in 2008/9 to 126.6 £ billion in 2023/4, or by 80.25%. By contrast, health spending increased by 42.48% and social protection spending, which includes the bulk of welfare, by 25.09%. This reflects increasing public sector debt as a result of a succession of crises and, arguably and ironically, austerity itself. The state of the public finances is another reason why we so often ask “where has the money gone”, even though, as a society as a whole, we are, as we have seen, arguably richer than in 2008, and even though the bulk of UK public debt is held domestically by institutions such as pension funds, that is where it is not still actually owned by the Bank of England, so broadly we kind of owe the money to ourselves. We have to bring future interest payments down by tiering the interest we pay on the reserves, stopping QT and ensuring that when we do decide to borrow it isn’t to cancel out QE, but to invest, so should generate a return greater than any future interest payments. (To find out more about QT and QE go here: gezwinstanley.wordpress.com/2024/10/28/infrequently-asked-questions-about-quantitative-tightening-that-you-were-never-even-meant-to-ask ).

Then there is the obvious question of a wealth tax. As we have already noted, there has been a significant growth in wealth inequality in the UK since the Financial Crash. A lot of that increase in wealth inequality is down to increases in valuations of certain assets, such as property and shares, itself partly due to the money pumped into the economy by Quantitative Easing, so really something of a “windfall”. Now, wealth as a quantity is a “level” not a “flow”, so we can’t repeatedly tax wealth without, eventually, running out of wealth to tax. Of course, wealth begets wealth, so we could counter here that we can in fact tax wealth repeatedly provided we do so at less than the rate of real growth of wealth. The complication here is that growth in wealth, as we have seen, takes two forms: profit, which is a flow not a level so therefore can be taxed repeatedly, as income, and increases in how assets are valued. Increases in valuations can’t be taxed repeatedly because the the only way to realize that gain is to sell assets, and the underlying assets aren’t actually increasing: therefore, again, if we repeatedly taxed those assets we would run out of assets to tax.

It could be argued, though, that the point of a wealth tax isn’t just to fund the repair of public services and the economy generally, but to directly reduce extreme wealth inequality as a goal in its own right. To that it should be countered that there are less crude ways to do that than a wealth tax, which simply attempts to siphon off the value of assets above a certain level continually, and that would be to share the ownership and control of the mechanisms that generate wealth, for example, through democratically managed public ownership and workers’ cooperatives. It is simpler, and less illiberal, to ensure that wealth is fairly distributed as it is created, to do “pre-distribution”, rather than allow wealth to become ever more concentrated in the hands of the richest and then repeatedly have to attempt to prise it out of their politically well-connected and media controlling hands using “redistribution”.

Right now, though, a one-off wealth tax seems like the most sensible way to raise money to invest (for example, as proposed by the, in part, LSE and Warwick University funded UK wealth tax commission: www.ukwealth.tax). Note that the sums raised will have to be invested, to improve how effectively our economy can meet our needs in the long term, and must not be used on day to day spending. If we ever did that we would just fritter the money away, not solve our underlying problems, and then be back in exactly the same mess again tomorrow.

To meet our day to day needs, and to keep a lid on inequality, and possibly raise some more money to invest, we would align taxes on “passive income”, the income generated by wealth that we touched upon above, with those on income generated by work: for example making the tax rates on capital gains the same as those for income tax. We would make our tax system less regressive (meaning poorer people can end paying a higher proportion of tax than richer people) by increasing the lower rate of national insurance paid on income above £967 a week to match the higher rate paid on weekly income below that amount (something most people don’t even realize exists). Richard Murphy, the Professor Emeritus of Accounting Practice at the Univeristy of Sheffiled and a tax campaigner, has a range of such proposals here taxingwealth.uk. In 2024, Professor Murphy estimated that the national insurance change alone could raise £12.5 billion a year.

Though indefinite taxation of wealth as a stock is not sustainable, there is a case for taxing use of uncreated wealth. Anyone who is exclusively exploiting natural resources, such as the land, should compensate everyone else in the community for the deprivation of the same opportunity, really as a basic upshot of the moral requirement to respect the wants and needs of others as equal to our own. This applies even if the rest of the community could not currently exploit the resource in question because they lack access to the necessary investment or specific technologies, as to rule otherwise would then simply compound pre-existing inequalities. Therefore, the users of uncreated wealth should pay a form of rent to everyone else. This means that initiatives such as a land value tax should be seriously considered, Such a tax would also allow the community to better ensure that its uncreated wealth is used in a way that is generally beneficial, by adjusting the tax to be paid appropriately, potentially even turning the tax negative to subsidise food security or environmental restoration.

We could use a land value tax, or possibly a local income tax, to raise more money than the currently regressive council tax. Council tax bands scale far less rapidly than property prices, so council tax tends to bear down heavier on the poorer. Similarly, a local corporation tax could be considered to reduce the business rate burden on smaller companies.

Ideally we could raise more, and do so more progressively, by shifting taxes to the companies making the highest profits. To facilitate that, we could work more closely with like-minded nations to create economic blocs that stop the race to the bottom in taxes such as corporation tax, and force transnational corporatisations to pay more tax. This is another argument in favour of cooperating more with overseas partners such as the EU, on top of those relating to undoing some of the damage done to our trade by Brexit. As all of this requires regulatory alignment with the EU, and we are better off helping to make those regulations rather than being a mere rule-taker, we should seriously consider negotiating a deal to rejoin in some form, and working again from the inside.

So where did all the money go?

If we take that question to mean where did all the economic growth go, compared to what was happening prior to 2008, so instead we got very slow growth instead, well that was down to de-industrialisation coupled with over-reliance on finance capital, austerity, rising inequality, Brexit and the after-effects of COVID and Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, especially our over-dependence on global fossil fuel markets.

If we take that to mean resources and wealth, then the “money” hasn’t gone anywhere, with the total value of real resources most likely growing in per capita terms. Wealth, though, denotes who can “own” those resources and here wealth has gone to the already richest.

If we consider income, then overall income per head has increased and income equality has actually improved slightly, but if we look at purchasing power then inequality has increased significantly when we compare the richest to the poorest.

If we take “where did all the money go” as a lament about our public finances, then the issue is the richest lobbying and conniving not to pay more taxes at a time when repeated crises and increasing underlying need has put pressure on public spending, not beyond our capacity as a nation to support but beyond the willingness of the richest to pay.

Perhaps the problem with low growth is not so much the low growth in itself but the way that the super-rich, desperate to still out-grow each other, then become even meaner and more ruthless: ever less willing to pay taxes, ever keener to shrink the public sector and ever more determinedly promoting the idea that the only way to restore growth is for everyone else to let their greed run amok. Basically, when growth is negligible it is no longer possible for the super-rich to hide increasing inequality, where they can take a larger, and even possibly growing, share of the expanding pie but most people don’t notice, because their share is getting a little bit bigger too. That means they have to resort to other distraction tactics, such as scapegoating the sick, the poor, the foreign and the culturally non-conformist, all the while attempting to divert the anger caused partly by their own actions in a way that ironically boosts their wealth and power still further. There’s even a new term for that: “pluto-populism”. The upshot is a threat to democracy itself.

Conclusions

The UK is not broke. The UK is not going broke.

Per capita economic growth has happened, but slowly. The main issue with our resources and wealth is not currently the depletion of either but increasingly unequal distribution.

In future, our increasing needs, per head of the population, could start to outrun such a slow rate of economic growth, and we do need to buffer ourselves from the inevitable crises to come, so driving some modest, responsible and fair per capita economic growth would be sensible, especially in the health sector, to better meet basic needs, such as housing, and to protect our security of supply when it comes to energy, food and some areas of industry.

Finally, we should reject, not only the lie that the UK is broke or is going broke, but the very framing that, were the situation to arise, what we should sacrifice first are the needs of the poorest and most desperate, that the very first things we should cut are publicly funded healthcare or the welfare safety net. As we have seen, morally that is abhorrent. Those are the very last needs we should abandon. When we next encounter genuine shortages, the moral thing to do is to triage and ration, just as we did in World War Two when the Nazis were attempting to starve us by sinking our Atlantic convoys. It’s a very uncertain world, and we should never accept the notion that we solve a resource crisis by letting the poorest perish and freeing up the greed of the rich to get yet richer.

***

Methodology and Sources

Note 1:

Office of National Statistics (ONS) Capital stocks and fixed capital consumption, UK: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/bulletins/capitalstocksconsumptionoffixedcapital/2024

Office of National Statistics (ONS): Weekly Earnings (defined as “wages and salaries”): https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/methodologies/averageweeklyearningsqmi

GDP deflators used to convert money values into 2023 prices unless others stated: UK government Statistics: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gdp-deflators-at-market-prices-and-money-gdp-june-2025-quarterly-national-accounts

Office of National Statisitcs, Population Figures: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland

UK Government Statistics: Inactivity Rates: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/i46d/lms

Note 2:

Wealth figures: World Inequality Database (WID): https://wid.world/country/united-kingdom/

Note that the WID is the product of the World Inequality Lab, which “is composed of about forty people (co-directors, coordinators, research fellows, research assistants, staff). It is based primarily at the Paris School of Economics and the University of Berkeley, California. The World Inequality Lab works in close coordination with more than 200 researchers – the WID Fellows – based in institutions around the world”.

WID accessed in September 2025, at which point all GBP figures were given in 2023 price terms.

Note 3:

GDP figures were sourced from here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ybha/pn2

GDP deflators used were as cited above.

Per capita income was taken from https://wid.world/country/united-kingdom/, multiplied by the ONS population figures, cited above, to derive UK income totals for 2008 and 2023, with that total income then being apportioned to the top 1% or bottom 50% of the population according to the income shares also sourced from https://wid.world/country/united-kingdom/. Then those top 1% and bottom 50% income shares were then divided by 1% or 50% of the relevant UK population totals to derive the per capita incomes cited. Note that, as the per capita income figures given in the World Inequality Database are for all people aged 20 or over, the UK population totals used in these calculations were all consistently those for individuals aged 20 or over.

https://wid.world/country/united-kingdom/ was as accessed in September 2025, at which point all GBP figures were given in 2023 price terms.

Note 4:

The HM Treasury breakdowns of public spending are from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6874fa6f92691289bdb7d393/Public_Expenditure_Statistical_Analyses_2025.pdf, table 4.2

The 2008 personal social services spend was taken from table 5.2 of Public expenditure statistical analyses 2009 – GOV.UK .

The population and GDP deflator figures used were as cited above.

Source of average long term figure for annual growth in NHS spending: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6616184/

Note 5:

ONS Price Index of Private Rents: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/priceindexofprivaterentsukmonthlypricestatistics

ONS Household Costs Indices (HCI) for UK household groups: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/householdcostsindicesforukhouseholdgroupsreferencetables

A weekly income figure by decile were taken from here: households with below average income, for financial years ending 1995 to 2024, at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/households-below-average-income-for-financial-years-ending-1995-to-2024, and multiplied by 52 to derive annual figures. The specific table used was “2.1ts Decile” from income-values-and-inequality-measures-hbai-1994-95-2023-24-tables.ods.

How Democracy Dies

In January 2025 the USA will be taken over by Donald Trump and his government of billionaires for billionaires. Trump’s right hand man is Elon Musk, supposedly the richest man in the world, though he may be pipped at the post by Vladmir Putin, ruler of Russia. In Turkey we have President Erdogan, a multi-billionaire alleged to have acquired most of his wealth by corrupt means and to have established a system of oligarchic capitalism inspired by Russia (https://nordicmonitor.com/2023/06/insiders-revelation-put-a-spotlight-on-erdogans-huge-wealth-accumulated-through-bribes-and-kickbacks/ and https://turkishdemocracy.com/resources/erdogans-regime-and-the-russian-oligarchic-model/). Meanwhile India is dominated by Modi’s “billionaire Raj”: policies promoting the enrichment of the already very wealthiest that now means the country is more unequal than in colonial times (https://wid.world/news-article/inequality-in-india-the-billionaire-raj-is-now-more-unequal-than-the-british-colonial-raj/ ). Across in China President Xi himself is very likely to be billionaire in his own right, but that isn’t very surprising, as, among countries with a significant number of billionaires, a billionaire is more likely to have high political office in China than anywhere else (https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/billionaire-politicians-a-global-perspective/1AD0E0C33FE43165B14DD981533E00DD).

It seems that plutocracy is on the rise everywhere, with even the former democracies perched to fall. Why is this happening, does it matter and, making the not unreasonable assumption that it matters a lot, what can we do about it?

Protecting intensifying concentrations of wealth in an increasingly crisis-ridden world: dangerous feedback loops.

The essential background to this part of the story is rising inequality. Partly, this is an effect of globalisation, itself caused by technological change, such as the invention of container ships and the internet, as well as the removal of impediments to trade and the movement of capital. Rising inequality is also the direct result of innovation, with some becoming, for example, dot-com billionaires, while others lose their jobs, including factory workers switched for robots, typists replaced with word processing software or supermarket staff displaced by self check-out. A third factor was “government capture” by the elites, leading specifically to anti-labour legislation and tax changes that favour the wealthy. In Western nations, since the Financial Crash, there has also been considerable asset inflation, especially increases in property prices and rising stock prices, the former often exacerbated by housing shortages, but both resulting from the way governments have tried to avoid post-crash recessions by injecting new money into the banking system, using the mechanism normally described as “Quantitative Easing”.

The evidence of this rising inequality, both in the UK and elsewhere, is reasonably clear. In the case of the UK, the Office of National Statistics said this about the decade from 2011 to 2020: “The gap between the richest in society and the rest of the population has widened over the 10-year period; the income share of the richest 1% increased from 7% to 8.3% between FYE 2011 and FYE 2020.” (www.ons.gov.uk/householdincomeinequalityfinancial/financialyearending2020). The pattern is similar with UK wealth inequality, with the share of wealth held by the richest 1% of the UK population falling to its lowest level of 15% in the early 1980s, and since then rising back to about 23% (https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/wealth-gap-year/), meaning that the 1% in the UK have increased their wealth share by just over half.

Globally, the picture is similar, indeed worse, in many countries. The 2020 UN World Social Report “Inequality in a Rapidly Changing World” states: “… income is increasingly concentrated at the top of the income ladder… The share of income earned by the richest 1 per cent of the population increased in 59 out of 100 countries or areas with data from 1990 to 2015… In 2015, the top 1 per cent earned more than 20 per cent of all income in 18 countries with data, including Brazil, Chile, India, the Russian Federation, Thailand, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and the United States.” Wealth inequality has also increased, and is even higher: “The following findings have been widely publicized: while the bottom half of the global population owned less than 1 per cent of all wealth in 2018, the richest decile (top 10 per cent) owned 85 per cent of all wealth and the top 1 per cent alone held almost half of it… The existing evidence also suggests that, where income inequality has grown, wealth inequality has grown even faster since at least 2008… In addition, the distribution of income between capital and labour has undergone major changes. The share of wages in total GDP declined in a majority of countries (91 out of 133 with data) from 1995 to 2014… Improvements in labour productivity have not translated into better labour compensation. Wage stagnation is likely to disproportionately harm workers in the middle and at the bottom of the income distribution, since they rely mostly on labour income.” (https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2020/02/World-Social-Report2020-FullReport.pdf).

The fact that increasing shares of global income and wealth were being appropriated by the super-rich was a trend that was noticed even before the Financial Crash. Investment analysts working for the financial services multinational Citibank adopted a special term to describe this whole phenomenon back in 2005: “plutonomy”. According to these analysts a plutonomy is an economy “where economic growth is powered by and largely consumed by the wealthy few” so that: “In a plutonomy there is no such animal as “the U.S. consumer” or “the UK consumer”, or indeed the “Russian consumer”. There are rich consumers, few in number, but disproportionate in the gigantic slice of income and consumption they take. There are the rest, the “non-rich”, the multitudinous many, but only accounting for surprisingly small bites of the national pie.” (https://delong.typepad.com/plutonomy-1.pdf). To wonder whether or not it is the super-rich who really “power” the wealth creation, beyond the circular argument that they can invest much more than anyone else simply because they control the far greatest share of wealth in the first place, especially as the vast bulk of people have no net wealth at all, would be a digression, though for the analysts, as this report was intended to be read by their wealthiest clients, the element of flattery was most likely intended.

Notoriously, though, in their next report on “plutonomy”, in 2006, the same analysts identified the most significant threat to this cosy arrangement: “…the rising wealth gap between the rich and poor will probably at some point lead to a political backlash. Whilst the rich are getting a greater share of the wealth, and the poor a lesser share, political enfrachisement remains as was – one person, one vote (in the plutonomies). At some point it is likely that labor will fight back against the rising profit share of the rich and there will be a political backlash against the rising wealth of the rich… We don’t see this happening yet, though there are signs of rising political tensions. However we are keeping a close eye on developments.” (https://delong.typepad.com/plutonomy-2.pdf).

In other words, the richest have in many ways the simplest possible reason to undermine democracy: to preserve the very inequality that makes them the richest in the first place.

Rising inequality also directly increases the influence of the richest over politics, as they can make more “dark money” available, to donate to political parties, campaigns and “think tanks” that are really just propaganda generating machines for their donors, to pay lobbyists and data analysts and public relations firms, to buy into media companies or fund comfortable little non-executive directorships for retired politicians. That in turn leads to more “government capture” and yet more inequality as a result of measures such as tax cuts for the rich, reduced public services like less real terms per capita funding for state education, anti-union laws, plus more globalisation, up to and including using the intelligence, military, and even nuclear, assets of states to threaten other nations into opening themselves up for trade and investment, as happened with the Soviet Union. (With the most ruthless agents of the Soviet state, KGB officers and their ilk, using their muscle and “kompromat” to help seize state assets as the Soviet economy privatised, and creating a kleptocratic oligarchy, it is hard not to be cynical about the Cold War being fought for the sake of freedom, when it leaves the nastiest of the b*stards we were fighting against actually much enhanced in power, and the people still not free).

Rising inequality additionally generates disaffection with democracy, especially a democracy being gamed by the rich. That in turn allows the wealthy, exploiting grievances caused in the first place by policies that they actually promoted, to cynically redirect that anger to their own ends. There’s even a new word for that tactic: “pluto-populism” (https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/2019/08/01/no-deal-brexit-like-brexit-in-general-is-simply-pluto-populism/).

Capitalist democracy” becomes a contradiction in terms when economic growth falters.

Rising inequality can nevertheless be tolerable to the general population when nearly everyone is getting richer, in other words in periods of high growth. That’s why those Citibank analysts failed to detect their anticipated political revolt against “plutonomy”. However, there is an inherent contradiction between capitalism and democracy, which means that social conflicts in a “capitalist democracy” will escalate rapidly as economies slow if inequality doesn’t correspondingly decline. That contradiction arises because capitalism serves the interests of those with market power, meaning property and money to spend, where-as democracy is meant to serve the needs of everyone (this is explored more fully here: https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii71/articles/wolfgang-streeck-the-crises-of-democratic-capitalism). That tension can be ignored by most people when an economy is clearly expanding and the capitalists can style themselves as the “rising tide that lifts all boats”. The rich will even get away with taking a larger share of the economic growth than everyone else, plutonomy style, provided that nearly everyone gets at least some of that growth. The tension within capitalist democracy becomes intolerable to many, however, when growth is sluggish or even declines, and everyone has to fight for a share of a generally fixed or even shrinking economy, so that usually the only way for someone to acquire wealth is to take it from someone else. At this point a system where the “few” control the means that others need to live and make a living, and do so without being able to make even tenuous and questionable claims of furthering the general welfare, loses any justification whatsoever. (For a comprehensive treatment of the implications of zero growth on capitalist democracies see:https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1463499620977984).

Growth declined first in the Western nations, due in part to competition from emerging nations, as facilitated by globalisation, causing de-industrialisation and offshoring of jobs, but also automation, leading to rising profits for the few but unemployment and stagnating wages for the many, plus falling birth rates and some exhaustion of the most readily extractable natural resources. As humanity as a whole runs against global resource and environmental limits, especially the capacity of the atmosphere and oceans to absorb greenhouse gas emissions without causing catastrophic climate change, the whole economy is likely to have to transition to a lower growth state, at least for a decade or two. Breakthroughs such as fusion power, factory cultured food, nano-technology or room temperature superconductors, and the creation of an off-Earth economy as a result of much reduced launch costs and ideally the foundation of an industrial base on the Moon and asteroids that can expand using its own resources, without needing vast energies to lift mass out of our planet’s deep gravity well, may well eventually allow escape from these constraints, but not in the immediate future, and in most cases not soon enough to contribute to stabilising the current climate. Furthermore, growth will probably have to be additionally constrained in the richer nations, to allow the emerging nations a chance to catch up, or billions will be left trapped in poverty.

In a negligible or even negative economic growth situation the contradiction between capitalism and democracy is likely to be unsustainable. One or the other will have to be chosen. Elites, with their thinks tanks and very well paid, highly connected and expertly informed advisors, can anticipate this, and are already exerting their influence to ensure that “capitalism” is chosen. Also many of the world’s super-rich, even at the same time as funding climate change denial, will feel a pressing need to bolster their own power and privilege against the threat posed by successive global crises.

A gradual relaxation to a harsh but “normal” social state where political and economic power re-converge.

Even without declining growth rates, compelling elites in many “capitalist democracies” to head-off possible revolts, a power grab on the part of the global elite would be happening anyway, though with less urgency and intensity, as a result of an even slower and deeper dynamic: the gradual re-convergence of political and economic power. Those with economic power, or “wealth”, use it to buy political power, from politicians and parties to mercenaries, while those with “political power”, or the power to make and enforce the “rules”, use it to steal the wealth. As a result economic and political power have such a strong tendency to converge that for most of human history both forms of power have resided in exactly the same hands, usually with “landed” elites. We are, however, arguably at the end of a long period of disruption where, starting in Europe with the Black Death, which killed nearly half the population and left the landed lords with more land than there were peasants left to farm it, plus expansion of commerce and industry and the discoveries of new lands overseas, especially the Americas, led to the ruling class dividing in two. A new “capitalist” class arose to rival the power of the traditional landed elites, so that political and economic power actually drifted apart, and the divided elites, often fighting each other, had to repeatedly make concessions to the masses as they vied for their support, or were even too weak, in some places at some times, to stop representatives of the masses from rising up and actually taking charge of the political situation for a while, even if, sometimes, that process just resulted in the creation of new elites rather than enduring equality.

That unusual period of disruption, in Europe and in many of the places across the globe where the Europeans settled, meant that there was an accelerating tendency for society to be run for the benefit of the many not the few. For once, most members of a society, with the exception of those other peoples the Europeans enslaved or tried to exterminate, were no longer mere objects born to serve the elites. Proto-democracies arose, initially as a peaceful way to resolve conflicts within the elites, but, starting in the 19th Century and reaching its climax in the 20th Century, movements emerged to extend the vote, eventually including women. Slaves were freed and eventually some concessions made to respect the rights of those who had survived the exterminations. Over the last century universal suffrage resulted in a trend towards falling inequality as the lot of the masses improved dramatically.

Except that the elites would not remain divided forever. In the late 20th Century globalisation boosted the wealth and power of the richest and caused them to start to cohere into a new multinational ruling class. By the end of the 1970s a full blown counter-revolution was under-way, so that inequality slowly started rising again, in places such as the USA and UK, from the early 1980s. In this view of history rising plutocracy is in part just another aspect of this longer, subsurface historical process of societies “relaxing” back to their equilibrium state, with both wealth and power residing in the hands of a single ruling class, in this instance a new global billionaire oligarchy. (More here: https://gezwinstanley.wordpress.com/rage-rage-against-the-dying-of-the-light/).

How all these underlying processes affect what people do day-to-day.

Of course, these deeper historical currents in no way fully determine the actions of the most influential members of a society, such as owner-managers of giant corporations, or the political leaders, their advisors and their sometimes shadowy super-rich backers. What an individual does, caught in the vagaries of their life, remains unpredictable, as are therefore the details of historical events. But those deep historical currents do bias the actions, and the consequences of those actions, of historical agents, meaning that they increase the likelihoods of events moving in certain directions. Those biases can be subtle but are also pervasive, so that, even if individuals are unaware of those biases, the biases themselves, and there-by the effects of the deeper historical currents, become obvious when many actions of many individuals, and the consequences of those actions, are summed over space and time. This is the way more general processes of historical causation, which create underlying trends, interact with the more specific, the personal and the day-to-day, usually in a way that is unconscious or semi-conscious. (This general historical process then itself only becomes unpredictable when those historical currents are pulling into potentially divergent directions and with similar strengths; when history is balanced on a knife edge and is at some type of turning point, then, and only then, can the unpredictable “specifics”, the personal and the day-to-day, matter in terms of being able to alter the underlying historical reality, in the same way that the gentlest breeze could alter the outcome of a coin toss).

History at the detailed level is analogous to the weather. The deeper currents we have explored above are then like the climate: knowing about the climate in a given region, and how it varies over time, does not allow the weather to be predicted exactly, but “climate” does describe the underlying conditions that determine the likelihood of different types of weather event.

How this attack on democracy is justified.

Relatively recently, democracy was unquestionable across broad stretches of the planet. Back at the end of the 20th Century, after the victory of the West in the Cold War, the consensus loudly proclaimed by social scientists such as Francis Fukuyama was that liberal democracy was the “end of history.” Dark prognostications such as these would have been difficult to even consider back then. At the same time many of the pluto-populists driving plutocracy forward claim to be defenders of “freedom”. Given these observations, how can those who are threatening liberal democracy justify their actions to themselves, and, even more importantly, their potential followers, especially within nations that have democratic traditions, or at least aspirations?

Firstly, always remember that the powerful often don’t need much encouragement to strive for yet more wealth and power. Tragically, the continual accumulation of more wealth and power is often the only ways members of the elite, and their families, can survive. That’s because members of the elites are always competing with each other. Elite families losing this struggle risk sinking out of the elite into the “masses”: of becoming the exploited rather than the exploiting. For most of human history, however, and in many gangster states in the contemporary world, the consequences of losing a power struggle are even worse: they are extermination. Nevertheless, though a disproportionate number of the rich and powerful are psychopathic, most are not. So, we have to ask, what “stories” do these people tell to themselves so that can sleep nights, or, even more importantly, use to justify themselves to others?

Firstly, bear in mind that we are about to enter sinister territory, where there are people who’s “solution” to society’s problems is to deprive, or render worthless, the one thing the powerless can use to defend themselves against the powerful: their vote. Don’t expect “democratic” politicians to be proclaiming these ideas too loudly in public, as that could be career limiting, though, in the case of demagogues such as Trump, even this taboo is clearly weakening. Nevertheless we won’t have to search very hard in the wider circles of right wing opinion to find some making such arguments. In fact, we can start with those from whom the Reaganites and Thatcherites of the late 1970s and 1980s counter-revolution derived their direct philosophical inspiration.

Take Friedrich Hayek. Hayek is the leading light of the neoliberals. During one meeting of the UK Conservative Party, the British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher famously slammed down her copy of Hayek’s “Constitution of Liberty” on the table declaring, “This is what we believe.” (https://www.sothebys.com/en/articles/this-is-what-we-believe-margaret-thatcher-and-f-a-hayek).

The “liberal” part of the word neoliberal refers, just as we would expect, to a strong emphasis on “freedom”, though, of course, there is a lot of discussion about exactly how freedom should be defined. For “neoliberals” freedom tends to mean strong support for property rights and for market-based interactions free of government “interference”. Now, there is a common misconception that all forms of liberalism must necessarily involve support for democracy. While it is true that democratic governments, because they are accountable to the people, will find it harder to restrict the freedoms of the people than authoritarian governments, there is no logically necessary connection between democracy and liberalism, unless an extremely dogmatic view is taken that acting in accordance with the democratic will is the very definition of freedom. If the latter position is rejected then it is clear that there is nothing logically stopping a democracy acting in an “illiberal” manner, for example a majority depriving a minority of its freedoms. Democracy does not equate to freedom.

The preceding point is crucial and should be re-emphasised, as it can initially seem counter-intuitive: there is no logically necessary connection between neoliberalism, or indeed between any of the strands of right wing libertarian thought, and support for democracy. In fact, right wing libertarianism tends to emphasise purely majoritarian democracy, and to criticise democracy as little more than the tyranny of the majority, even mob rule. If they mention democratic mechanisms that tend to favour the emergence of a consensus compromise rather than majority rule, such as proportional representation or preferential voting systems, at all, it is to be disparaging. For example, Hayek says this: “It is by no means obvious that proportional representation is better because it seems more democratic.” (That quote, and all following Hayek quotes unless otherwise stated, are from Chapter 7, “Majority Rule”, and its footnotes, of “The Constitution of Liberty”).

Having focussed down on purely majority rule forms of democracy, right wing libertarians are sceptical of its worth. Hayek says, with some justification, “There is little reason why the majority of people who have joined for some purpose… should be regarded as entitled to extend their power as far as they please.” Ayn Rand, the founder of a strand of libertarian thought she named “Objectivism”, that is very popular among the US right and is also taken as a source of inspiration by many others, especially in the English-speaking world, is even more scathing about democracy: “Democratic” in its original meaning [refers to] unlimited majority rule … a social system in which one’s work, one’s property, one’s mind, and one’s life are at the mercy of any gang that may muster the vote of a majority at any moment for any purpose.” (http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/democracy.html).

Hayek, however, is prepared to accept democracy as a “means rather than an end”, seeing a number of practical benefits of the system, “Democracy is the only method of peaceful change that man has yet discovered,” being perhaps the most quoted. Hayek continues, “The second argument, which historically has been the most important , though we can no longer be sure that it is always valid, is that democracy is an important safeguard of individual liberty.” Finally, he sees benefits in democracy for political engagement and participation: “Democracy is, above all, a process of forming opinion. Its chief advantage lies not in its method of selecting those who govern but in the fact that, because a great part of the population takes an active part in the formation of opinion, a correspondingly wide range of persons is available from which to select”.

Democracy as a moral necessity vs democracy as just occasionally having its uses.

At this point then we can make another vital observation about right wing libertarian beliefs regarding democracy. At worst it is to be avoided, but even at best it has no inherent moral worth, being rather a decision making arrangement that can be useful. Many democrats, by contrast, would see an innate virtue in democracy, even if its isn’t always virtuous in its effects.

Of course it’s certainly true that democracy can’t decide everything. You wouldn’t, for instance, “vote” on the truth of a mathematical proof, or “vote” on accepting a scientific hypothesis rather than testing it by observation or experiment. Indeed, if for strong supporters of democracy the need for democracy arises from moral considerations then those moral considerations are logically antecedent to democracy and underpin it. Or, in other words, the moral case for democracy runs deeper than democracy.

In this view democracy is something arising from morality, as a way, when we have exhausted rational argument and evidence and arrived at the point where we have to make a subjective decision about what people prefer, that everyone’s idea of fulfilment, of what “works” for them inside their own heads, is counted equally, at least provided they are willing to accord others the same respect. In this view democracy is just a result of applying one of the oldest and most widespread, and arguably most fundamental, of moral principles to politics. That principle is the Golden Rule, basically that we should respect the wants and needs of others, or at least of those who return the favour, as equal to our own. Following this argument, democracy, though in practice it will often be imperfect, very much has moral worth in and of itself, and not just because of its likely side effects. (More here: https://gezwinstanley.wordpress.com/questions-and-some-answers-how-to-live-with-yourself-and-others/).

Right wing libertarians do not, however, assert any moral case for democracy. If they did so they would see the value in more consensual forms of democracy, and for universal suffrage, in other words for democracy in its more modern forms. Rather they are, at best, indifferent to such modifications and enhancements to democracy.

For example, Hayek regards universal suffrage as something that could well be positively undesirable: “It is also possible for reasonable people to argue that the ideals of democracy would be best served if, say, all the servants of government or all recipients of public charity were excluded from the vote.” The footnote that accompanies that sentence is especially shocking, perhaps especially for a book published, as was “The Constitution of Liberty”, as late as 1960: “It is useful to remember that in the oldest and most successful of European democracies, Switzerland, women are excluded from the vote and apparently with the approval of the majority of them. It also seems possible that in primitive conditions only a suffrage confined, say, to landowners would produce a legislature sufficiently independent of the government to exercise effective control over it.”

Therefore right wing libertarians see no necessary logical connection between their philosophy and democracy, do not see any inherent moral value to democracy as a way to make communal “value judgements” and are decidedly ambivalent about aspects of democracy that many democrats would now see as essential, such as universal suffrage. Also, note that, though we have primarily used Hayek as the basis of this analysis, because of his prominence as the leading philosopher of the right wing libertarians, as epitomised by his key influence on the Reaganites and Thatcherites, the views of other influential right wing libertarian thinkers, such as Ayn Rand, are even more sceptical of democracy. There is an egalitarian tendency inherent in democracy with which right wing libertarians are distinctly uncomfortable, with the basic upshot that they regard modern democracy as entirely disposable.

How right-wing “libertarianism” in practice leads to authoritarianism.

It should therefore not be surprising that, in practice, these right wing libertarian ideas have tended to be associated with a drift towards authoritarianism. The problem with neoliberal programmes of “reform” is that they prioritise capitalism over democracy, meaning the interests of those with most market power over everyone else, at least in the immediate term. Measures such as slashing public services and welfare payments, reducing labour rights and suppressing unions, removing consumer or environmental protections, privatisations and cutting taxes on the wealthiest can eventually prove very unpopular, Many neoliberals would argue that such market “liberalisations” will eventually benefit everyone, in the “rising tide lifts all boats” sense, but the usual upshot of such policies, as we have seen, is rising inequality, which becomes the rich getting richer while the poor actually get poorer especially when crises, sometimes caused by neoliberal deregulation itself, hit. Hence the need for neoliberals to implement their policies using the three shocks as outlined in Naomi Klein’s “Shock Doctrine”: taking advantage of the public disorientation after a crisis, “shocking” the economy with sudden market “liberalisations” and then, if there is resistance in the streets, using state power and political terror to force compliance.

Of all the strains of right wing libertarian thought though, it is the neoliberalism of Hayek’s and Friedman’s circle, the “Mont Pelerin Society” as it is formally known, that has most often been cited as the direct inspiration for policy programmes of radical “economic reform”. The subsequent association of neoliberalism with authoritarianism has been tracked by an increasing number of commentators from at least Klein onwards, to the extent that research into “neoliberal authoritarianism”, and indeed “authoritarian capitalism” in general, now seems to have become something of an academic cottage industry.

Neoliberal market “liberalisations” have been combined with and/or followed by increasingly authoritarian, “strong man”, type rule, first in in countries such as Chile and Argentina, and later, for example, in Russia, Brazil, India, Turkey, Poland and Hungary, even if, as authoritarian neoliberalism causes economic and political power to converge into the same hands, the temptations of corruption and “crony capitalism” prove too strong, and pure “authoritarian capitalism” is what eventually emerges. In the final analysis, the wealthiest and the most powerful are most interested in their own wealth and power, and neoliberal dogma is just a convenient excuse most useful in the early stages of their ruthless economic and political aggrandisement.

Indeed, the very grievances caused, as market “liberalisations” accelerate inequalities, usually necessitate the elites transitioning to “pluto-populist” tactics, such as firing-up in-group prejudices and scapegoating the “other”: foreigners, migrants and the socially non-conformist. Ultimately the finer points of the thought of Hayek or Friedman are of little interest to most hard-faced strong men (and they are sadly nearly always men), and ideology is more about finding the most effective ideas to deploy as weapons in their continuing, if ever increasingly loaded in their favour, power struggles than it is about “truth”.

It is Chile that provides perhaps the earliest and clearest example of the links, in practice, between the neoliberalism of Hayek’s and Friedman’s circle and anti-democratic politics. After the 1973 military coup that overthrew the socialist government of Salvador Allende, General Pinochet and his military junta ruled the country for seventeen years. During this period, a new Constitution was enacted, in 1980, and radical neoliberal economic reforms were implemented. Hayek and Friedman visited Chile twice during the Pinochet dictatorship, to give interviews, lecture and provide advice to the government. Friedman advised Pinochet to administer a “shock treatment” to Chile to reduce the fiscal deficit through deep cuts to public spending, including privatising public healthcare and education (https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-constitutionalism/article/towards-a-theory-of-neoliberal-constitutionalism-addressing-chiles-first-constitutionmaking-laboratory/AFEC4BE02411DA7466F1F4CE4F578913). Meanwhile, Hayek notably told a Chilean interviewer: “My personal preference leans toward a liberal dictatorship rather than toward a democratic government devoid of liberalism.” (https://www.counterpunch.org/2006/11/17/the-road-from-serfdom/). As for the particular “liberal dictatorship” to which Hayek was referring, according to Amnesty International, as reported in the New York Times, Pinochet’s junta “disappeared” more than 1,500 Chileans just between 1973 and 1977 (“A Green Light for The Junta?” New York Times. 28 October 1977: https://www.nytimes.com/1977/10/28/archives/a-green-light-for-the-junta-in-the-nation.html).

Perhaps as a homage to Hayek, but most likely without any sense of irony, the new Constitution, when it arrived, was named the “Constitution of Liberty”. (https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-constitutionalism/article/towards-a-theory-of-neoliberal-constitutionalism-addressing-chiles-first-constitutionmaking-laboratory/AFEC4BE02411DA7466F1F4CE4F578913). This 1980 constitution locked Pinochet into the presidency at least until 1990 and as commander-in-chief of the army until 1998.

Therefore it is clear that, not just in theory but from its very first application, “neoliberalism” has had a “troubled” relationship with democracy. Nor is this an issue confined to the late 20th Century: similar polemics that promote capitalism over democracy have continued to be promoted by right wing libertarian commentators and their think tanks.

21st Century justifications for limiting democracy.

For example, we have Moscow’s “Gaidar Institute”, named in honour of Yegor Gaidar, the economist and politician who applied neoliberal “shock therapy” to Russia in the early 1990s. Now, the Gaidar Institute is a respected think tank, co-hosting the “Gaidar Forum” each year (which it promotes as Russia’s “Davos”). Now the Gaidar Institute funds “research” into the “link” between universal suffrage and public debt, as part of the repeated refrain of the right, ironically especially since governments were afflicted with huge debts as a result of the financial crash, that it is the fact that the masses can vote and demand a welfare safety net and decent public services that it is the real problem, not the deregulated bankers and their asset bubbles of dodgy financial instruments followed by governments having to bale them out and deal with the aftermath.

So, in 2016, the “Chief of Department of Institutional Development ” at the Gaidar Institute of Economic Policy (also leading research fellow at the Russian Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation) echoes Hayek at his most reactionary in criticising universal suffrage and advocating what he calls “taxpayers’ democracy”, meaning that only those who pay taxes should be able to vote and not those who are the recipients of public spending, as the latter group have a conflict of interest, meaning that they will continually vote just to drive up spending and taxes unless their votes are taken away. Of course, in reality there isn’t such a clear distinction between taxpayers and recipients of public spending, as even the poorest will pay indirect taxes such as VAT, and even the richest will enjoy “benefits in kind”, such as driving on roads and having their extensive property protected by state law enforcement. If, to clarify the situation, we took “taxpayers” to mean those making a net contribution, and we ignore the fact that it could be difficult to deduct benefits in kind from each citizen’s taxes to calculate a true net contribution, then this is potentially simply making a case for plutocracy. The argument ruthlessly and wilfully disregards the fact these taxpayer-voters also have a conflict of interest, which is to disregard their obligations to broader society as much as possible, and to try and arrange state affairs to boost their own wealth and power, for example perhaps favouring anti-union laws, deregulation and the rolling back of public provision to create new markets for their own businesses, while opposing the redistribution of wealth and privilege that may, at least in the first place, have been acquired by theft, extortion, corruption or exploitation. Everyone in society has their own “interests”, and anyone who is willing to respect the wants and needs of everyone else as equal to their own should also have their wants and needs respected equally. All such citizens who can meaningfully vote should have the vote, as sometimes there will be no other objective way to weigh up all such interests in the balance, especially when decisions come down to subjective value judgements.

It becomes clear that, underlying the specious arguments in these Gaidar Institute papers, the real worry is one dating back to at least the time of Aristotle: a fear that in a democracy the poor will form a mob that will eventually simply rob the rich: “Introducing universal suffrage weakened safeguards of private property… as feared by Aristotle (who warned against ‘ochlocracy’ – essentially ‘mob rule’) and conservative-minded Founding Fathers like Madison and Adams. The latter wrote: ‘Perhaps, at first, prejudice, habit, shame or fear, principle or religion, would restrain the poor from attacking the rich, and the idle from usurping on the industrious; but the time would not be long before courage and enterprise would come, and pretexts be invented by degrees, to countenance the majority in dividing all the property among them, or at least, in sharing it equally with its present possessors. Debts would be abolished first; taxes laid heavy on the rich, and not at all on the others; and at last a downright equal division of every thing be demanded, and voted’. ” (Universal_Suffrage_100_years_of_undeclared_conflict_of_interest).

It is very likely that this concern runs under most, or even all, right wing libertarian objections to universal suffrage. In a way this amounts to the same observation made by left-leaning academics, that “capitalist democracy” is really a contradiction in terms, but seen from the other side, from the right, from the perspective of the rich and powerful, or at least their apologists and academic attack-dogs. Also, as mentioned above, it is true that extending suffrage was, especially for the much of the 20th Century, roughly up until the end of the 1970s, associated with declining inequality. In that case, it could be argued that universal suffrage was doing its job and improving the general welfare. After all, “ochlocracy” is only a possibility if there are significant divisions between rich and poor in the first place. To argue that universal suffrage is wrong because it promotes equality is frankly perverse.

As for the arguments about universal suffrage and public debts those are equally questionable, and not least because many recent debt crises can be attributed to neoliberalism itself, from those arising from the global financial crash to huge private debts caused by wage stagnation and landlordism. The basic argument here is one of correlation: that increasing public debts and extensions to the suffrage go hand in hand. Of course, correlation is not causation, and in practice extensions to the vote and government debt have often correlated because both have been triggered by the need to mass mobilise society to fight wars. A couple of further considerations are also ignored. The first is that even despots have usually struggled to raise finance, especially that needed to fight wars, as they are torn between the need to extract the resources needed on the one hand, and on the other by not wanting to provoke revolt among those who will be taxed, especially at a time when they are facing open conflict with external powers. All states therefore have an in-built temptation to increase debt to avoid this dilemma, democratic or not. In fact, proto-democracies, such as the early English parliaments, were often summoned by rulers to mitigate this dilemma, as mechanisms by which the rulers could try and obtain consent for taxation. Democracy can thus be seen as lubricating the machine of state finance rather than impeding it, as, in many places and times, that was its first purpose. This leads onto the second consideration, that citizens who identify, often proudly, with a society will not seek to undermine it, and arguments on the basis of fiscal responsibility are often actually “easy sells” with even the mass of voters.

Finally, debt increases when expenditure exceeds income, and the Gaidar Institute analysis ignores the “income” side of the equation, especially tax, Any system that links voting rights to the level of tax contributions would likely choke off the public finances much more than universal suffrage.

This Gaidar Institute paper is deeply objectionable, backing its arguments with opinions from people like Calhoun, one of the apologists for slavery in the American South, and so combining a nasty streak of racism and xenophobia with its elitism and authoritarianism. Unfortunately, though, it is hardly alone. There is a whole sprawl of secretly funded right wing libertarian think tanks, generally neoliberal though also frequently involving the Randian “Objectivists”, spanning the globe. On the odd occasions their funding does get revealed, it tends to be traced to billionaires, historically often the oil money of the Koch brothers of the USA. Currently 481 of these think tanks are members of the “Atlas Network” (https://www.atlasnetwork.org/partners/global-directory), a self-styled “tremendously” impactful force in the “global freedom movement”. The oldest Atlas members, such as the the “Cato Institute” or “Institute of Economic Affairs”, are US or UK based. The Heritage Foundation, the US conservative think tank that authored the notorious Project 2025, a programme for the new Trump presidency, was formally a member of the Atlas Network until 2020 (https://multinationales.org/en/investigations/the-atlas-network-france-and-the-eu/ ).

Another common argument is that markets are better than democracy. This is exemplified by the work of an “adjunct scholar” at the Cato Institute (https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa594.pdf). This paper argues that voters are irrational and ill-informed, so that democracy should be limited, with collective decision making significantly replaced with “private choice” and “markets”. In particular, the author laments that voters do not think like economists (and generally he means classically and neoclassically trained economists). This paper was written in 2007, just before the Financial Crash. Possibly the author would have struggled to make such bold claims in the immediate aftermath.

However, he does not claim that economists are perfect: “The striking implication is that even economists, widely charged with market fundamentalism, should be more pro-market than they already are. What economists currently see as the optimal balance between markets and government rests upon an overestimate of the virtues of democracy. In many cases, economists should embrace the free market in spite of its defects, because it still outshines the democratic alternative”.

Of course, it is true that voters are often irrational and ill-informed. That’s in itself one of the justifications for representative democracy, or for demarchy, meaning selection of decision makers by “lot”, such as when “juries” are randomly selected from the citizenry and “hothoused” until they can pronounce on decisions of guilt or innocence, or a citizens’ assembly can decide an issue of public policy. It’s also an argument for better public education, especially in critical thinking skills and civics, and for improving debate, including having elements of the media as free as possible from government or corporate influence, and for trying to restrict the influence of dark money and the covert use of private data on social media.

Though it would perhaps be unfair to expect a 2007 paper to address the latter, social media related, concern, the fact remains that none of those possibilities for improving democratic decision-making are discussed in the paper at all. The currently parlous state of global democracy is at least partially due to the self-serving manipulations of the pluto-populists; it would be, shall we say, really rather galling if the billionaire backers of those assaults on democracy then use the fact that democracy is now so damaged to justify undermining it still further. Really, they should have stopped breaking democracy in the first place. As well as improving the quality of democratic decision-making, we can enhance democratic outcomes still further by adopting mechanisms that encourage the formation of a consensus compromise, such as proportional representation or preferential voting systems, rather than pure majority rule, but, as usual, this paper focusses exclusively on majoritarian democracy.

The paper states that: “Like markets, democracy can be limited, regulated, or overruled.” We need to be very careful here. Interpreted one way this statement is entirely reasonable. We have already seen that democracy is not a sensible way to make decisions that could be based on logical proof or empirical confirmation, and that democracy, rather than formulating the most fundamental moral principles, really arises from those principles, so that the proposition that there are some basic moral constraints on democracy is entirely reasonable.

One of those moral constraints, for example, would be the right of freedom of the individual, meaning respecting individual autonomy, or “personal choice” to use the words of the paper. However, the libertarian right ignores the fact that our actions affect one another, so that there have to be limits to personal autonomy, as otherwise there will be continuous conflicts and the powerful will then expand their own “autonomy” by crushing the autonomy of the powerless. As defining what impacts of our behaviour on each other are, or are not, acceptable requires many subjective value judgements, it is one of those decision making processes that must be based on consensus, i.e. on some form of democracy. In other words, a democratically derived consensus is needed to agree the limits of personal autonomy, to avoid the autonomy of some coming at the cost of the loss of autonomy of others. Also note that, as that consensus defined concept of personal autonomy then acts as a constraint on democracy, democracy is here constraining itself, for example, likely agreeing that freedom of personal religious belief is an individual right.

Similarly, when it comes to deciding the scope of markets, such as which services should be provided publicly to all or left to the market, or how markets should be regulated, and note that all markets require rules of some kind, then again we will usually be into complex decisions that cannot be made objectively, where value judgements are needed and everyone needs to have a chance to assert their own viewpoint and own interests. So, again, just as with setting the exact limits of personal autonomy, defining the scope and regulation of markets has to ultimately be based on some form of democratically generated consensus.

This doesn’t mean that we might not delegate the actual decisions to others, especially to experts, or to our representatives, who may then also seek the detailed advice of experts. But it does mean, at the very least, that we reserve the collective right to withdraw that decision making authority from such people if we judge them to be incompetent or not to be acting in our best interests.

The alternative would be to permanently abrogate all such collective decision making authority and leave defining the limits of our democracy and the limits of markets to some type of elite. Unfortunately, history teaches us that elites are nearly always self-serving, that they struggle to be impartial and objective, and will rule in their own interest. Even if we postulated an incorruptible, benevolent and enlightened elite, its value judgements, its own subjective sense of what makes life worth living, would, most likely, not be the same as that of the rest of society.

Therefore, we have to conclude that, when it comes to defining the detailed limits of democracy and markets, those decisions must themselves be ultimately based on a democratically derived consensus, as those decisions cannot be made totally objectively, and cannot be trusted to unaccountable third parties. Postulating “limits on democracy” does not allow an escape from the need for effective democracy in the first place, as in practice the details of those essential limits have to be assented to democratically. Furthermore, any such decisions on “limits on democracy” will be provisional, in that they will need to be continually revised as circumstances change or new evidence, on what works best for people, arises.

Because the citizens of a democracy are ultimately the only people who can decide how to limit their own democracy, limiting democracy therefore cannot be a workable solution to any issue of voters being irrational and ill-informed, and such a problem must be addressed directly, through measures like education and adopting democratic mechanisms that encourage consensus compromise over outright rule by the majority.

We should also be clear that the main point of this Cato Institute paper is to assert that the “free market” “outshines the democratic alternative”, and that what the author means by “democratic alternative” is any form of public, communal provision of services that is, in the final analysis, democratically accountable and democratically managed, such as healthcare or education. The upshot of this Cato paper would be to replace provision based on communally recognised need with ability to pay. In a capitalist society, where by definition only a few, the “capitalists”, control the things that people need to live and make a living, the result of rolling back the public sector and letting markets rip will therefore be rising inequality, all other factors being equal. Ironically, markets perhaps work best for everyone in a context that could be called “socialist”, where the control of the things that people need to live and make a living is reasonably equally distributed among the many. Then there are no capitalists to potentially exploit workers, and, with everyone having access to what they need to work and survive, broader equality in terms of purchasing power in the markets. But there is no getting away from the fact that drastically expanding markets, at the expense of public provision, in a capitalist context, very much favours the “capitalists”. Therefore we are back again to the inherent tension in a “capitalist democracy”, between capitalism and democracy. Again, if that tension is not resolved democratically, we end up in a society organised entirely to serve the wealthy.

Of course, that upshot is not accidental, but is the very point of that paper, the Cato Institute, the Atlas Network, the libertarian right in general, the pluto-populists and the authoritarian capitalism to which all of that inevitably leads.

The libertarian right, just like the radical left, acknowledges the contradiction in “capitalist democracy” but, predictably, resolves that tension by plumping firmly for “capitalism”. If “astroturfing” is a favourite pluto-populist tactic, where-by billionaire money is used to set up groups and campaigns that falsely appear to have spontaneously arisen from below, among the “masses”, rather then in reality having been created from above on the part of their “masters”, literally fake “grassroots”, then perhaps it’s more “respectable” equivalent, this time using “dark money” to fund important-sounding “institutes”, with imposing offices bearing impressive nameplates, that then output, as ostensibly serious “research”, material that is nothing more than propaganda of the most fanatical and dangerous kind, should be called “brass-plating”?

The right’s purported love of freedom is nothing to do with democracy, and really doesn’t amount to anything beyond the freedom for the rich to continue to make as much money as possible, with no regard whatsoever for the consequences on anyone else.

What we need to do.

Democracy is being insidiously and persistently rolled back by plutocracy. It is important that as many people as possible wake up and realize the significance of what they are about to lose. The billionaires, by and large, are not our friends. The “freedom” of which many of them speak is really just the freedom for them to gain more wealth and power, in a desperate attempt to stay ahead in their never-ending rivalry with each other. Share warnings such as these, and learn how to counter the arguments being made. Keep the discussion going, always emphasising the importance of democracy, and the darkness into which people will be plunged into if they allow themselves to be entirely deprived of their say in how their own societies are run. We need to break out of our bubbles and extend this discussion to the apolitical and those in opposing camps. To the many now sunk into deep cynicism about democracy, explain that their cynicism is most likely not a reflection on democracy itself but on the encroachments of plutocracy, the rising influence of the wealthiest, so is a result not of democracy, but of a lack of democracy.

Support efforts to improve critical thinking skills and understanding of “civics”. Encourage people to learn the lessons of history, especially how the powerful continually prey on the powerless, the brutal exploitation inherent in nearly all hierarchical and authoritarian systems and how democracy can be an essential defence for the many against the few. Engage with efforts to reduce the influence of money in politics, such as over-turning the “Citizens United” decision in the US, which removed any limits on political donations, or to place limits on election campaign expenditure. Promote schemes to improve democratic systems, such as experiments with demarchy. Especially, if you live in countries still stuck with first-passed-the-post systems, such as the US and the UK, which tends to result in two party systems that are easily gamed by the wealthiest and can end up just representing rival factions within the elite rather than the people themselves, then advocate for a shift to more proportional systems of representation (For those in the UK concerned that a proportional system will gift more seats to a far right party such as Reform bear in mind that currently Nigel Farage is a king-maker: able to massively influence the UK first-passed-the-post election system by deciding whether to stand or pull candidates in constituencies that would otherwise be won by the Conservatives).

In fact, struggle to extend our democracy still further, into the economic as well as the political sphere. One of the most powerful dynamics driving the end of our democracies is the tendency for political power, the ability to make and enforce the rules, and economic power, which derives from owning things, especially the productive capacity that sustains our lives and in itself can create still more productive capacity, to converge. Basically those with political power steal the economic power, and those with economic power buy political power. This tendency is eventually fatal to democracy. Ultimately, the only way to make democracy safe is very likely to adopt some form of democratic, even libertarian, socialism.

Sometimes you have to choose the lesser of two evils to avoid utter disaster

Sad but true: sometimes it really is necessary to choose the lesser of two evils.

There is a misconception going around in some left-wing circles (I’ll politely mention no names here) that Trump, his allies, and possible successors, pose no threat to the institutions of the US Republic. The hypothesis goes like this: the billionaire power-brokers backing Trump will not attack the Republic itself because the Republic already works to benefit the rich and because, unlike say Europe in the 1930s, there is no strong Left-wing threat to those interests, which they need to counter through authoritarianism/fascism. Therefore a lot of the MAGA talk is merely bluster.

This is completely wrong, because it underestimates the simple greed for wealth and power among elites, especially in societies plagued, as is the USA, by high and rising inequality. That greed is driven by two things: competition within the elites themselves for dominance, and a desire, in the face of brutal inequality, to not only head off any revolt from the disadvantaged masses, but to actually weaponize that anger for their own political and economic interests (more here: gezwinstanley.wordpress.com/rage-rage-against-the-dying-of-the-light). Therefore, for the most ruthless members of the elites to act to increase their own power at the expense of the institutions of a Republic, there is no need for that Republic to not already be serving their interests, or for there to be a powerful “Left-wing” opposition. Those power-hungry members of the elites don’t even need to be psychopaths, even though a a disproportionate number, it kind of goes with the territory, including obviously Mr Trump, will be: all they need is to be in a power struggle with each other for this dynamic to be true. Then there is no such thing as “enough” wealth or power.

No powerful “left “ is needed. Add in, though, a movement to address the climate emergency by restricting the interests of the “so ruthless it is willing to risk the end of civilisation” fossil fuel industry, then there is also, in reality, something of an opposition thrown into the mix that these people really do feel they need to crush. Hence, of course, Trump’s mantra “drill baby drill”. Nevertheless, these power plays would be happening even without this green movement to worry about. It’s just what these people do.

Really, a better analogy for the current situation in the US is not 1930s Europe but the fall into oligarchy and autocracy of the late Roman Republic, perhaps unsurprisingly given that the Founding Fathers took inspiration from that very republic when creating the USA, and that the Roman Republic also suffered from spiralling inequality and emergent plutocracy, which in turn was partly the result of its imperial successes in sucking wealth back into Rome.

The inequality within the United States is shocking. Let’s first compare that inequality with the world as a whole. According to the “World Inequality Database” (wid.world), in 2022, the last year with data at the time of writing, the average income among the top 1% of earners in the human population was then 124 times the average income of the bottom 50%. As we would expect, as those earning more can spend a higher proportion of their income on assets and save much more, the wealth disparities are even greater: with those in the top 1% on average owning 1267 times the average wealth of those in the bottom 50%. The figures for the USA are comparable (and show a clear long term worsening trend in both income and wealth disparities): 100 times for the average income difference for someone in the top 1% compared to someone in the bottom 50%, and 1163 times for the disparity in the average wealth of anyone in the 1% richest as compared to the 50% poorest. As stated by the “Inequality Project” of the US “Institute for Policy Studies” (inequality.org) “Among industrial nations, the United States is by far the most top-heavy, with much greater shares of national wealth and income going to the richest 1 percent than any other country.” The US case, with levels of income and wealth inequality just shy of those for humanity as a whole, even though humanity as a whole lacks a single overarching integrated “society”, paint a picture of US society as basically broken. Perhaps it is no surprise that the USA is tearing itself apart.

So how does the USA compare to ancient Rome? Stats here are obviously hard to come by. One study (income-inequality-in-the-roman-empire), of Rome 150 years after the fall of the Republic, evaluates Roman inequality then as roughly comparable with the US now. Assuming that inequality increased as Republican tendencies waned and Rome became ever more strictly hierarchical, it is likely that US inequality is already higher than the Roman Republic was at the time it fell into civil war and eventual tyranny.

In this story Trump gets to play the role of a Julius Caesar, but, if that seems to lend him too much grandiosity, remember that Julius Caesar was also most likely an a-hole.

Of course, even if it’s the Republicans who have most enthusiastically driven this state of affairs, the Democratic Party has also been complicit. Just as it has been complicit with genocide in Gaza. Trump, however, will, of course, be far worse. In the context of the Gaza situation, that statement can seem a bit of a reach, but imagine the hell-hole that is Gaza, but this time with no foreign aid going in at all. Trump, a billionaire with billionaire backers, will, of course trash Medicare, social security and workers’ rights. In the context of climate change or protecting democracy, or avoiding civil war, it should be fairly obvious that Trump, the coup monger who will now have immunity for all his new actions as president thanks to his place-people in the Supreme Court, plus his backers and eventual successors, remember it wasn’t Julius Caesar but his adopted son Augustus who finally ended the Republic, will be much, much worse.

Malcolm X once said the following: “The white conservatives aren’t friends of the Negro either, but they at least don’t try to hide it. They are like wolves; they show their teeth in a snarl that keeps the Negro always aware of where he stands with them. But the white liberals are foxes, who also show their teeth to the Negro but pretend that they are smiling. The white liberals are more dangerous than the conservatives; they lure the Negro, and as the Negro runs from the growling wolf, he flees into the open jaws of the “smiling” fox.” It is easy, and many on the left do, to extend this logic to apply to anyone in the USA who isn’t part of the 1%, or possibly even 0.1%, and not just African Americans. Yes, you know where you are with a pack of wolves. Unfortunately, though, that’s likely to be “being eaten alive”. Provided you recognise that the fox is a fox, and keep your wits about you, then you should survive, possibly even prevail.

Sometimes it really is necessary to choose the lesser of two evils: vital even. So, for the sake of the US, indeed the world, including, it’s tragic to say, even the children of Gaza, if you have a vote in the US elections please use it, and please, please vote Democrat.

Infrequently asked questions about Quantitative Tightening that you were never even meant to ask

Worried about public sector debt levels? Worried about never-ending austerity? Worried about lack of investment and economic stagnation? Worried about the lack of finance to deal with the climate emergency? Then let’s stop doing this….

Or infrequently asked questions about Quantitative Tightening that you were never even meant to ask!

What is Quantitative Tightening (usually abbreviated as QT)?

QT refers to the sale of debts a central bank has previously purchased back to the financial markets, with the money then received being cancelled out (that’s the “tightening” bit). More usually than not, and overwhelmingly in the case of the UK over time, and currently totally in the UK as all other types of debt have already been sold, those debts are those of a central bank’s own government, in other words government “bonds” (also, in the case of the UK, called “gilts”). Selling public sector debt “back to the markets” therefore amounts to the public sector re-borrowing the money.

Why were central banks buying debts in the first place?

Central banks bought debts, and, as we have seen, usually the public sector’s own debt, in order to do “Quantitative Easing”.

What is “Quantitative Easing” (usually abbreviated as QE)?

QE is the process where a central bank creates money and uses it to buy up debts, usually the central bank’s government’s own debts. QT is the reverse of QE, and that’s why the money received when debts are sold back to the markets is cancelled out, as that destroys the money created by QE.

What is the point of QE?

The point of QE is meant to be to avoid economic contraction, by increasing the supply of money, attempting to reduce interest rates and driving more lending. Part of this is about avoiding deflation. Deflation means falling prices, and is more feared by economists than inflation, because deflation can send an economy into a downward “deflationary spiral”, when people will attempt not to buy today what they expect to be able to buy more cheaply tomorrow.

We have also seen QE used for other purposes though: to prevent a collapse in the value of government bonds by buying bonds up (during the Truss Crash, in order to prevent pension funds going bust) and, even more importantly, to finance government spending during various crises from the Financial Crash onwards.

Was QE really used to finance spending?

This is controversial, as central banks don’t like admitting to it, but yes., with, for example, the Financial Times noting in 2020 that the the Bank of England’s asset purchases perfectly tracked central government’s borrowing needs.

Government vastly exceeded what would have been its normal capacity to borrow money, because it wasn’t really borrowing it at all: it was creating it.

Though it was never actually described as such at the time, this means that QE took on the nature of deferred borrowing, leaving us naturally to wonder how over a decade’s worth of crisis spending, from the Financial Crash to COVID, will impact our economy once that money is genuinely borrowed, rather than those debts being owned by the public sector itself.

Why was QE done in such a contrived way?

It is natural to wonder why central banks didn’t purely just create money, and bothered with this contrivance of buying back debt at all. However, a central bank creating money and say, lending it to its government, direct financing as it is called, is seriously frowned upon: it is even illegal in the EU under Article 123 of the Lisbon Treaty. The reasons for this, in turn, are concerns over creating inflationary expectations.

Debt therefore had to be bought back to obscure any appearance of direct financing. Also, using the created money to buy debt means that QE comes inbuilt with the means of its own reversal. The purchased debts, now held as assets at the central bank that did QE, can just be sold back to the financial markets, in the process that has come to be known as Quantitative Tightening, with the proceeds from the sale of the debt simply being cancelled out, destroying the original QE created money.

In the meantime, the public sector debt owned by the central banks, which are part of the public sector, is still recorded in measures of public sector debt, even though the public sector now owes this money to itself.

It could be argued that this obscures the reality of the debt. Debt that an entity owes to itself effectively has no economic significance. Debt owed to third parties, however, very much does, in that it could affect the credit-worthiness of the entity in question, meaning its capacity to borrow more and the cost of any future borrowing. Keeping QE purchased debts in the totals of debt means that the significant act of selling that debt back to the markets, in reality re-borrowing the money, does not change those totals, dangerously obscuring the economic reality of what is going on.

How can central banks “create money” in the first place? Isn’t creating money just trying to get something from nothing?

The idea of central banks creating money can seem offensive to common sense. It feels like getting something for nothing.

There are two points to make here. Firstly, the central banks themselves do not deny that the money used for QE was created. Secondly, this is what governments do all the time: consider, money has to be created and spent into an economy first before any government can tax it back.

More fundamentally, though, it is important to be clear about the real nature of money. Money is not in itself a resource. It’s when we think of money as a resource that the whole notion of money creation feels so bizarre, because that would then amount to creating a resource out of thin air. Rather than being a resource, money is really a transferable claim on resources, That claim is backed by a government mandating that the money it issues has to be accepted to buy goods and services in the economy under its control. To confuse money with resources is actually an example of an error in thinking called “reification fallacy”, when we conflate the representation or abstraction of something with the concrete thing itself.

Once we think about money as a claim on resources it’s clear that nothing is really being created here so much as redistributed. If the value of the total supply of money in circulation is the value of all the goods and services it could purchase, then what money creation really does is redistribute purchasing power. When a government creates some money it adds to its own purchasing power, but by reducing everyone else’s a little bit, because each unit of money is now worth slightly less. The governments enhanced purchasing power then spreads through the economy as it spends its new money.

How much QE and QT has been done in the UK?

Since and including the Financial Crash, then a little bit of Brexit, and finally COVID, the Bank of England carried out £875 billion of QE. This was a scale of QE far greater and persisting for far longer than was originally envisaged, when QE was implemented, as explained above, just as a way to keep money flowing in the economy in the wake of the Crash. Even by 2012, in the words of the Bank of England: “the scale and duration of QE was far in excess of that originally envisaged.”

The Bank of England started QT in February 2022, initially just not purchasing new bonds to replace those that had matured (passive QT), but then also starting to sell-off its own bond holdings (active QT) in November 2022, re-borrowing and then cancelling out £118 billion up until January 2024, with a target of doing £100 billion worth of QT each year from then until, presumably, the QE created money is eliminated.

Isn’t this all just conventional “financial engineering”, really rather technical and nothing to worry about?

No: QE is a relatively recent invention and QT even more so. The first QE was initiated by the Bank of Japan in March 2001. Back in 2009 QE was still regarded by the Bank of England as an “unconventional measure” We are still working out the full implications of unexpectedly large-scale QE programmes, meaning that the effects of any extensive QT are even less well understood, as QT itself has only begun recently. In the words of the Bank of England itself, as of February 2024, QT is “ innovative for all central banks”.

Other countries are also doing QT: basically every country that has done QE with the odd and ironic exception of Japan itself. Note, though, that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is planning to leave it’s own “balance sheet”, basically the debts it owns, dominated by US government bonds, which are called Treasury Securities, indefinitely. In the Fed’s own words, it wants to “achieve in the longer run a portfolio that consists primarily of Treasury securities”. That means, it isn’t planning to fully unwind its QE.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is still doing QT but before it started faced a revolt of more than a hundred economists, politicians and campaigners from across Europe, including Thomas Piketty, arguing that the EU debts then owned by the ECB should effectively be forgiven, either cancelled or converted into a zero interest never-maturing debt. The ECB’s response was essentially that this would violate Article 123 of the Lisbon Treaty.

What is the scale of QE/QT?

Though it doesn’t match exactly, as it isn’t the only cause of variation in the size of the central bank balance sheet, QE/QT has been the main driver for change to the balance sheets for all countries doing QE and QT. Indeed, sometimes QE or QT has exceeded the size of the change in the balance sheet, but been somewhat offset by changes in the opposite direction. Looking at those balance sheets, does however, allow us to perform an approximate comparison of QE and QT internationally. (Note that here we mean a balance sheet in accounting terms, where the rules of double-entry book-keeping mean that every entry for an “asset” is balanced by an entry of a “liability”, so that the balance sheet should balance at zero. A change in the size of the balance sheet is therefore formally a change in both directions: growing or shrinking assets and liabilities. Also note that loans, including government bonds, bought by a central bank are counted as assets because they represent money owed to the bank).

So, in the UK the Bank of England balance sheet grew from £93.2 billion in August 2008, and peaked at £1.12 trillion (1 120 billion) in January 2022, but is now down to £885 billion in October 2024, meaning that it has shrunk from its peak value by 20.1%. To get an idea of the scale of these figures the UK GDP in 2023 was £2.27 trillion.

For the European Central Bank. the balance sheet grew from €1.45 trillion in August 2008 to €8.83 trillion in June 2022, and then shrunk to €6.43 trillion by October 2024, so by 27.1% from its peak.

The size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet starts at $910 billion in August 2008, peaks at $8.95 trillion in March 2022 and shrinks down to $7.04 trillion in October 2024, so 21.1% since its peak.

Major Western governments have basically financed their way through over a decade of crisis by trillions in money creation.

Will the Bank of England make a profit when it sells the bonds back?

No. Government bonds normally pay a fixed amount of interest each year: say £2 for a £100 gilt. When interest rates generally rise this therefore makes the resale value of bonds fall: for example, if interest rates are now 4%, it would only then make sense to buy that bond that pays £2 a year for £50 rather than £100. That’s because, as £2 in £50 is 4%, that means that the bond is again “yielding” the “going rate” of interest, which also illustrates the reason why, as bond resale values fall, what are called “bond yields” rise, and why rising bond yields are bad news for institutions already holding bonds. Now, the Bank of England bought bonds when interest rates were near zero, so bond prices were high, but is selling them back to the markets after interest rates have risen, so the resale value of those bonds has fallen. In February 2024, regarding these bond sales, the Bank of England noted that “annual losses in each of 2023 and 2024 will amount to £40 billion”.

What are the justifications for QT?

Multiple, i.e. differing, reasons for doing QT have been given over the past three years or so, which is itself questionable. All of these are Bank of England cited ones:

a) To reduce the interest the Government has to pay. Basically, all the QE created money ended up in the reserve accounts held by the commercial banks at the Bank of England. This is the “ultimate” form of money in the economy, essentially the electronic equivalent of notes and coins, and it is the way the banks clear their debts with each other at the end of each banking day. From 2006 on, the Bank of England has been paying interest on all that money to the commercial banks, who have therefore repaid being saved by QE in the first place by being allowed to make hearty excess profits on these increased reserves. Nevertheless, initially, when the interest rates in the broader economy were lower than the fixed rates on the bonds, paying interest on the reserves rather than the bonds saved the Government money. Now, however, with interest rates increasing, this position has reversed, and selling back the bonds, receiving some of the money from these reserves in payment and then destroying it (i.e. QT) can reduce those payments. However, there is an alternative, as interest is only being paid on the reserves in the first place to encourage the banks to keep enough reserves to reduce risk of their failure, and as a way to set a floor for more general interest rates. Both of these objectives could still be achieved, while reducing those payments, if the interest rates on those reserve accounts were tiered, as is already done by European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, and has already been suggested by various UK pundits and think tanks. So, this is arguably a non reason.

b) To curb inflation (QT shrinks the money supply directly by cancelling out reserves, while also, by increasing demand for borrowing, possibly pushing up interest rates). There are two counters to this. QE stopped years ago now, but had been going on and off since the Financial Crash. Generally, it didn’t cause net inflation because it offset deflation, and where it did those effects have already happened. As general deflation wouldn’t be allowed to happen, the best QT could therefore now offer is to reduce current inflation, the rate at which prices rise, a small amount. Here, though, the Bank of England itself regards the effects of QT on inflation and on increasing interest rates as minor. The Bank of England regards its setting of the base rate as its main weapon against inflation, not QT. In August 2023, reviewing QT to date, the Bank of England said this: “the impact on activity and inflation is also likely to have been small”,

Also note that attempting to mitigate inflation caused by supply side factors by reducing demand, which is how QT would have an effect, can do nothing to address “cost of living” pressures. Consider: would anyone think the cost of living problems for their own household had been improved, even if prices were rising more slowly, if that fall in inflation was also associated with an increase in their mortgage payments or less government spending, so that, for example, they have to spend thousands because they can’t find an NHS dentist?

(c) To allow more scope for QE in future. This reason is nonsense. QE, creating money, can only be done in a situation where there is potential deflation, as otherwise it could be inflationary. Economists fear deflation more than inflation. Deflation can stop an economy dead: because few will buy today anything that they could possibly buy cheaper tomorrow. In such a situation no one would care how much QE a nation had done: instead the demand would be to let the (electronic) printing presses roll, as it were, and get on with creating new money.

A more fundamental reason, but one that is rarely discussed explicitly, perhaps for fear that it could invite the very thing it is concerned about, is to maintain faith in a currency, or, in other words, to avoid creating “inflationary expectations”. The clearest statement of this comes from a report commissioned by the European Parliament: “Since the beginning, the ECB has been uncomfortable with QE (which led to a delayed start compared to other central banks) because it sees it as blurring the separation between monetary and fiscal policies which could constitute a threat to its independence. Launching QT would then be a way to reduce the risk of fiscal dominance and reaffirm monetary dominance in the euro area. It would confirm that QE was not a permanent monetary financing of deficits (as it was sometimes perceived). This would also help ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchored, especially at a time when inflation is significantly above target.”

Is QT necessary to stop inflation as economies recover and confidence returns?

QE did not cause general inflation when it was carried out, most likely because, as intended, it offset deflation that would have happened otherwise. However, could QE, money creation in other words, cause delayed inflation that would only occur as economies re-open? Delayed inflation that can only be dampened down by doing QT?

After all, if money is just a claim on resources then each unit of a state-issued currency is just a share of the value of the sum of all the resources that can be bought using that currency as legal tender. An economic crisis might reduce the money supply, as people try and keep their money somewhere safe rather than spending or investing. Once the crisis ends though, all that money could return to circulation, resulting, if the QE created money isn’t cancelled out, to an increased money supply relative to total purchasable resources, and therefore inflation.

This model gets two things wrong. Firstly, it doesn’t grasp that, even during a period of reduced economic activity, perhaps as measured by something like GDP, which is really tracking the rate at which goods and services are bought and sold and not the level of total “wealth”, the total stock of purchasable resources could still increase, just most likely more slowly than in a period of prosperity. Even more importantly, though, the model doesn’t reflect the actual nature of the money supply. Most money in circulation is created by commercial banks lending out more money than they hold. That money circulates for a while and is then cancelled out again when the loans are repaid: let’s call it “virtual money”.

Now the level of virtual money in circulation will depend on the rate at which it is created as loans versus the rate at which those loans are repaid. An economic recovery is likely to increase both those rates. However, the amount of money that can be created as loans is is primarily influenced by the demand for loans, which itself tends to fall as borrowing becomes more expensive, i.e. as interest rates rise. Therefore, central banks’, including the Bank of England’s, main tool for managing the money supply is setting a base interest rate, the “bank rate”. Does that mean that base interest rate would have had to be set higher without QT? That seems unlikely, as QT itself increases the demand for loans and therefore actually raises the cost of borrowing.

It is therefore unsurprising that, as stated above, the Bank of England regards the bank rate as its primary tool for managing the money supply and says that the impact of QT on inflation is “is also likely to have been small “.

What are the downsides of QT?

QT means reducing commercial bank reserves, so increases risk of bank failure.

QT causes bond prices to fall, so can threaten institutions that hold lots of bonds, such as pension funds.

Together the above two effects amount to a heightened risk of a new financial crash, as arguably nearly happened with the three bank failures in the USA in March 2023 (Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank). In the UK, the Bank of England announcing £40 billion worth of QT also contributed to the “Truss Crash” of September 2022: in the end the Bank had to change course completely and initiate £65 billion worth of new, if short term, QE, to support bond prices and save many UK pension funds. These are therefore very much not purely theoretical risks.

By increasing demand for borrowing, QT can push up interest rates.

Very likely, though there’s a bigger risk: continued austerity and constrained public sector investment, as what the government can borrow to invest is crowded out by the money being borrowed through QT, i.e. there are too many government bonds on sale. Furthermore, there is a risk that, as notional debt is turned back to real debt, the government is seen as less credit worthy in the longer term, increasing its costs of borrowing and constraining its borrowing possibly for generations, as roughly 40% of a year’s worth of GDP is added to its real debt.

What could we do instead?

Arguably, all the government needs to do is to tweak the rules on the Bank of England to prevent it cumulatively expanding or shrinking the size of its balance sheet by more than say £10 billion cumulatively over the course of a year, without having to seek the prior approval of the Chancellor. With-holding that approval would prevent the Bank of England borrowing £100 billion a year just to cancel out the money received, expanding the space for the government to borrow to invest.

We should also consider reducing the interest payments on the reserves held by the commercial banks at the Bank of England by tiering the interest rates payable on those reserve accounts.

What could we do in the longer term?

We could convert the government debt still held by the Bank of England into a zero interest never-maturing debt. Note that this is preferable to simply cancelling out the debts for two reasons. Firstly, the reserves (of QE created money) appear as the liabilities on the central bank balance sheets, balancing out the value of the purchased bonds as assets. Now, these reserve accounts are very odd liabilities, because the reserves are the ultimate form of money, so this “debt” could never technically be settled (the only way to pay to “reduce” the reserve would be to pay into the reserve to increase it, a clear contradiction). Furthermore, a case could be made that it is the commercial banks that should be paying the central bank for services provided rather than vice versa, because without these reserve accounts the commercial banks could not function. Still, it is an unavoidable fact that these reserves are, by international convention, accounted for as liabilities, and that therefore cancelling out the debts owned by the central banks while leaving these reserves in existence would make the central bank’s balance sheet go negative, breaking accounting norms and having unpredictable consequences. Simply “freezing” these debts avoids that.

Secondly, by leaving the debt in existence, as an asset owned by the central bank, it would still be possible, if this policy didn’t work as expected, to reconvert that debt back into bonds: freezing rather than cancelling the debt makes this QT stopping initiative reversible.

Once the debt the public sector owes to itself is frozen, removing the value of the debt from totals of public sector debt would also more accurately reflect the debt position of government than maintaining any fiction that debt owed to oneself is equivalent to debt owed to third parties.

What can we conclude?

The real choice here is to decide between heading off creating potential “inflationary expectations” by being seen to destroy the QE created money, but at the cost of adding roughly 40% of a year’s worth of GDP to real public sector debt, or leaving the QE created money in existence, indefinitely, and not increasing real public sector debt by that huge amount, primarily to maintain government’s capacity to borrow to invest in the longer term.

Considering all the nations who have done QE worldwide the dilemma is similar: avoid possible “inflationary expectations” but at the cost of destroying trillions in potential government purchasing power, at the very time when the democratically accountable, and amply funded, collective actions of governments are needed more than ever to deal with crises such as the climate emergency.

No one can really know for certain which of those risks is greater, so the best thing to do is to follow a course of action that can be fully or partially reversed if the needs arises.

Undoing QE through QT is not easily reversible unless the economic situation becomes clearly deflationary, because of the risks that money creation is inflationary. Once it has been destroyed, any QE created purchasing power is likely to be gone for a very long time. However, provided the public sector debt purchased through QE still remains in existence, in some form held at the central bank, either as a frozen debt that could be converted back to the original bonds or just because QE keeps being rolled over as bonds mature, keeping the size of the balance sheet constant, then the policy of stopping QT is easily reversible. Therefore, stopping QT is the logical course of action.

“Quantitative Tightening” is being done purely to wipe out the “Quantitative Easing” created money. There is no need to destroy that QE created money at the moment, and may never be.

Sources and further reading

Bank of England, the original position on QE: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2009/quantitative-easing.pdf

Bank of England plans for QT, as explained to Parliament: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5804/cmselect/cmtreasy/219/report.html

For the Fed: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20240320.htm

The open letter to the ECB demanding debt forgiveness: https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/opinion/cancel-the-public-debt-held-by-the-ecb-and-take-back-control-of-our-destiny

(Unfortunately that has now been pulled behind a paywall, but the core message can be seen here: https://puheenvuoro.uusisuomi.fi/amosahola/on-cancelling-ecb-debt-open-letter-to-100-politicians-economists-and-campaigners/ )

The ECB’s response: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9nRKRVuAu0

The report to the European Parliament on Quantitative Tightening: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/267598/Final%20Compilation%20topic%201.pdf

Central bank balance sheet figures.

UK: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/central-bank-balance-sheet

Eurozone: https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/central-bank-balance-sheet#:~:text=Central%20Bank%20Balance%20Sheet%20in%20Euro%20Area%20averaged%204097919.14%20EUR,Million%20in%20February%20of%201999

USA: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-balance-sheet

Financial Times, on QT as “direct financing” of spending: https://www.ft.com/content/f92b6c67-15ef-460f-8655-e458f2fe2487

Who are the deserving rich?

Introduction

For as long as there have been poor people needing relief, and richer people potentially able to provide that relief, we have been dogged with the question “who are the deserving poor”?

Perhaps, though, it’s time to to turn that question around, and ask, “who are the deserving rich”?

A narrative encountered so often it is almost a consensus is that the rich are the hard working, talented, brave risk takers who create the jobs and wealth we all enjoy. That’s what makes them deserving: the benefits they bring everyone else.

But what does deserving mean? Normally it means worthy of reward, and we normally consider things worthy of reward if they are “pro-social”, meaning they help our “group” in some way. If we are feeling generous that “group” may extend to all humanity, or even all sentient life. It’s what people do or try to do that makes them deserving, not their innate characteristics. Someone who is, say, very talented but does nothing with their talents, or very wealthy but just hoards, would normally not be considered deserving.

The question is not trite. It contains within it essential questions such as what forms of inequality are morally acceptable, and to what extent, and what forms of wealth generation are moral, and what are the moral uses of wealth?

It also touches upon a fundamental moral challenge: one which, if taken to its logical conclusion, could mean that the phrase “deserving rich” is really a contradiction in terms.

In 1971, the philosopher Peter Singer wrote a now celebrated paper entitled “Famine, Affluence and Morality” (https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/get-involved/videos-books-and-essays/famine-affluence-and-morality-peter-singer), which used the then contemporaneous example of the Bengal Famine to make the following argument:

“The traditional distinction between duty and charity cannot be drawn, or at least, not in the place we normally draw it. Giving money to the Bengal Relief Fund is regarded as an act of charity in our society. The bodies which collect money are known as “charities.” These organizations see themselves in this way – if you send them a check, you will be thanked for your “generosity.” Because giving money is regarded as an act of charity, it is not thought that there is anything wrong with not giving. The charitable man may be praised, but the man who is not charitable is not condemned. People do not feel in any way ashamed or guilty about spending money on new clothes or a new car instead of giving it to famine relief. (Indeed, the alternative does not occur to them.) This way of looking at the matter cannot be justified. When we buy new clothes not to keep ourselves warm but to look “well-dressed” we are not providing for any important need. We would not be sacrificing anything significant if we were to continue to wear our old clothes, and give the money to famine relief. By doing so, we would be preventing another person from starving. It follows from what I have said earlier that we ought to give money away, rather than spend it on clothes which we do not need to keep us warm. To do so is not charitable, or generous. Nor is it the kind of act which philosophers and theologians have called “supererogatory” – an act which it would be good to do, but not wrong not to do. On the contrary, we ought to give the money away, and it is wrong not to do so.”

This would mean according to normally accepted moral principles, that if there is anyone in basic need we should give away all our wealth, beyond that needed to meet our own basic needs, until all their basic needs are also satisfied. Even more challengingly, Singer posits that possibly we should donate “to the point of marginal utility, at which by giving more one would cause oneself and one’s dependents as much suffering as one would prevent in Bengal.”

To this it might be countered that there is more to life than riches. Though that is undoubtedly true, the obvious riposte to such an objection is that it clearly doesn’t apply in a situation where people are starving to death. In fact, if we accept that wealth doesn’t linearly equate with fulfilment, but instead normally equates according to, say, a law of diminishing returns, then the argument against the deserving rich becomes even stronger. It means that, if we adopt any form of morality where maximising fulfilment is important, then sharing wealth to meet the most basic needs first, is the most efficient way to do so.

Mutual aid and reciprocation: the concept of a moral society

To dive deeper into this we need to clarify what we mean by “moral”.

The moral system adopted here (as explored in detail here: https://gezwinstanley.wordpress.com/questions-and-some-answers-how-to-live-with-yourself-and-others/) is a fairly conventional one, based on a version of the moral Golden Rule that means we should respect the wants and needs of others as much as our own. That in of itself, if you think about it for a moment, obligates a string commitment to equality. The moral system then adds reciprocation to that formula, so that it becomes “to respect the wants and needs of others as equal to our own provided that they are willing to return the favour.”

That “returning of the favour” in practice describes a set of mutual obligations from which a “moral society” emerges. As the moral society, is, by definition, a “good”, it should be extended as far as possible. We should all try and grow our “moral societies” and allow our moral societies to combine.

The other fairly conventional upshot of such a moral system is that we should seek to maximise fulfilment but while making the distribution of fulfilment as equal as possible, among those with whom we share these Golden Rule style mutual obligations. In particular, we should never organise our system of relationships with others in way that would make the worst off even worse off than they could be otherwise, even if that means compromising on total overall fulfilment. If we rejected this proposition, and instead made the maximisation of overall fulfilment totally primary, we could end up trapped by the Slave-owner conundrum often levelled against Utilitarianism (the moral system that seeks the “greatest happiness for the greatest number”), where-by slavery could seem justifiable if the happiness that it creates for the slave-owners more than exceeds the suffering of the slaves: something that would be a clear violation of any “Golden Rule” style of morality.

What are the implications of these moral principles to Singer’s argument?

At first it may seem that such a system of morality gives us a sure-fire way to escape the obligations created by Singer’s argument. As Singer used the specific example of the 1971 East Bengal famine, we could claim that our moral society wouldn’t have extended to East Bengal. However, remember that we are also obliged to try and extend our “moral society” as far as possible. If the opportunity to exercise kindness meant we could have extended a sense of mutual obligations to the starving East Bengalis in any way, then we should have tried to do so.

Furthermore, Singer’s use of the East Bengal famine was by way of adopting a then topical crisis to highlight the moral dilemma he was explaining in the most acute way possible. Singer’s argument also applies within communities that are clearly at least meant to function as “moral societies”, and which frequently have to make decisions that relate to the “deserving rich”, such as how to set taxes.

We therefore have to accept Singer’s argument as inescapable. What then does that mean in practice?

Let’s assume that we all give our wealth away to those we feel to be in need. Sometimes, identifying those in need will be uncontroversial. Often, however, and here we are back to the “deserving poor”, it will not. So, who decides who we give our money to, and how much?

We need to combine this concern with another: in practice we do not live in ideal “moral societies”, rather the concept of the moral society is an asymptote to which we should continually drive.

Note further that Singer himself here was critical of “charity”. Instead of our giving being “charity” it should be regarded as an obligatory consequence of living morally. If so, who decides, in the detail that would then be necessary, what those moral obligations are exactly?

If we leave these decisions to individuals we end up with arbitrary giving, and the fate of the needy depending on whim and luck. Can they attract sufficiently wealthy “patrons”, or not? Even worse, giving that we don’t live in ideal moral societies, some individuals could use such acts of arbitrary giving to create dependency, exert social control or even just to whitewash their own public relations. In such a scenario, “charity” just becomes another way the wealthy can exert their power over others. Alternatively, we can consider the fate of those who genuinely give as much as they can with no consideration of self interest. In a non-ideal society, where they are in any way competing with the wealthy and powerful who are not “giving” in such a disinterested way, those altruistic individuals then end up out-competed and marginalised, possibly taking the whole of their society in a steadily more immoral direction. Relying on arbitrary acts of good nature creates a type of “tax on benevolence” that can send a society down a dark path.

There is one way out of this dilemma: to agree, through mutual consent, rules and mechanisms for direct and indirect redistribution that are binding on all of us. The purpose of these rules and mechanisms is to limit inequality. So, how can our societies limit inequality?

Before we move on to that question, we should deal with the moral objection, as exemplified by statements such as “taxes are theft”, that our societies have no right to redistribute wealth in the first place.

Is redistribution theft and a potentially despotic attack on property rights?

An immediate objection here is that we should keep everything that’s “ours”, and that any attempt to remove anything that’s “ours” is theft and an attack on our fundamental “property rights”.

We will deal with this objection now, because if society has no morally derivable right to redistribute wealth, or if the measures needed to do so are impractical or dangerous, perhaps threatening tyranny, then we can go no further.

Of course, it could be argued, along the same lines of Singer, that our deepest moral obligations to help others overrides any such rights. Nevertheless, above we have shifted from a notion of individual giving, even if morally obligated, to one where we establish our detailed mutual obligations collectively and bind each other to meet those obligations. We therefore now have to take this objection of “theft” far more seriously than we would if we were still just dealing with the dictates of individual conscience, because now there is a third party involved that could do the “stealing”, as in wider society, where-as previously there was not, so theft would have been impossible.

Firstly let’s note that what is “ours” is a legal concept. Laws have their power, in practice, because they are backed up by the coercive powers of our societies. Therefore we only have what is “ours” in the first place because it is society as a whole that protects, even defines, what is “ours”. To this extent, the concept of property itself is a social construct: without society we have no “property” beyond that which we could directly defend against the depredations of others.

Then there is the notion that wealth itself is also a social construct in the sense that it is the end result of a “team effort”. That’s because, beyond just needing wider society to help protect our wealth, we are also dependent on the social fabric more generally in order to create wealth, such as education and healthcare for ourselves and other workers, transportation infrastructure and other utilities. Much of this social fabric is owned, run, funded or at least regulated collectively, and a lot of it constitutes “public goods”. A “public good” is something that it is difficult to fund on an individual, voluntary, basis, as the benefits cannot be limited to the individual who would be paying, so public goods have to be funded collectively, or everyone ends up attempting to freeload on everyone else and the provision of the public good breaks down altogether, because no one then wants to pay. The oft-cited classic example is street-lighting. These public services in themselves necessitate some form of collective funding, meaning the direct or indirect surrendering of some wealth, which would otherwise accrue to individuals, to wider society.

Therefore, property rights are not moral absolutes. However, we still have to deal with the objection that any attempts at redistribution risk tyranny.

That objection is, in fact, irrelevant, because all societies cannot help but make decisions about the distribution and redistribution of wealth. Such choices are unavoidable. In practice, how far we allow inequalities depends on how we organise our societies. Firstly, we have the extent to which the things people need to live and make a living are owned in common, or at least shared reasonably equally. Equal access to such assets, for example land being open to all rather than privately enclosed, constrains the opportunities for making money purely through owning something, rather than through any form of work. Then we have the issue of how free our collective decision-making is from influence by “wealth”. That degree of “plutocracy” then affects what tax and welfare policies we set, and what legal protections our society grants and to whom, e.g. to workers, consumers, holders of different forms of property, or the environment. Furthermore, there is the question of what services our society provides on a free or subsidised basis. Universal education and healthcare can, for example, have a huge bearing on equality of opportunity. Then there are all the rules about how accumulated wealth can be passed from one generation to the next. Finally, we have to decide how we regulate our markets, for example to prevent monopoly or oligopoly. Even the rules about what is recognised as “money” and who can create it, decides who has “seigniorage”, literally the ability to directly benefit from the creation of money, and who doesn’t. All these decisions act together to set how wealth is distributed. Tragically, protecting and expanding the wealth of already dominant groups has, historically, often been a major driver in the development of our societies.

If wealth depends so much on wider society does that give wider society the right to take away anything it pleases? No it doesn’t, because wider society also has to act according to Golden Rule style morality, which in itself distinguishes moral redistribution from any kind of theft.

So what are the moral constraints on redistribution?

If we are obliged to respect others’ needs and wants as equal to our own, provided they return the favour, and are therefore compelled to work towards equality in life fulfilment across our aspiring “moral society”, and wealth is related to fulfilment, at least to some extent, we might initially assume we should just simply equalise all wealth and income. However, this is not the case.

Firstly, wealth can often only be created at the cost of sacrifices of fulfilment. Some of those sacrifices of fulfilment are in the form of wealth itself, as wealth creation normally requires some input of wealth, something to be “invested”, in the first place, so here we have to be clear that we are talking about people’s net wealth, after any “sacrifices” of wealth are deducted. Then we have to factor in the time, effort, stress and strain, equally “invested” in the creation of wealth. We need to allow for all of this when assessing equality, as otherwise we would not attain equality in terms of actual fulfilment. In particular, inequalities in wealth, to the extent that they result from these sacrifices, are justifiable. If we decided otherwise, we would, for example, allow the indolent to exploit the hard-working. Therefore, respecting inequalities of wealth that result from such sacrifices is one of the moral constraints on redistribution.

However, if we accept that a Golden Rule style morality obliges us to seek equality in fulfilment outcomes, then, just as a maximal interpretation of Singer’s argument would imply, we will need to “pre-distribute” or redistribute to achieve this. “Pre-distribution” means widening direct access to the things people need to live and make a living. We could have more resources owned and run communally, we could make uncreated resources such as land or water or mineral rights common, and we could encourage the formation of co-operatives, where businesses are owned by their own workers, preferably on a reasonably equal basis (for more on this idea see: https://gezwinstanley.wordpress.com/what-is-economic-justice-and-how-can-we-create-it/). Redistribution means collecting money through progressive taxation and then spending it on the basis of need, for example to provide basic services such as healthcare or education, plus a universal “safety net” through, for example, welfare payments. Pre-distribution is about making the initial allocation of wealth equable, especially forms of wealth that themselves generate further wealth, while re-distribution is about correcting inequalities through reallocation of wealth. By both mechanisms those with a potential or actual “surplus” must help out those who otherwise would be left wanting.

Although that is an unavoidable moral imperative it creates an issue of its own: incentives. To have everything we need to have done across our society actually carried out, we need to make the doing of those tasks worthwhile. Reallocate any gains beyond that point and essential activities won’t happen, and everyone ends up worse off.

So, we have to ask, what is the minimum reward necessary to get anyone to do anything, for example to induce the scientist to cure a disease, or the refuse collector to take away the recycling?

First of all, we would need to at least compensate for all the sacrifices in any way involved with carrying out the task, meaning fulfilment lost through time spent, resources foregone, effort, stress and strain “invested” in doing an activity, including any “up-front” costs, for example, not just money invested but years of required training. Any possible after-effects will also need to be taken into account, such as long-term health impacts.

Then we have to factor in risk. Some activities will be associated with a risk of failure and loss, from the monetary to the existential. If anyone is participating in any risk-taking activity, then, if they are being rational, their average rate of gain must exceed their average rate of loss. Any risk-taking associated with activities will therefore increase the gains that are needed to incentivise the doing of those activities.

So, we must at least compensate for sacrifices of fulfilment and unavoidable risks. This all seems uncontroversial: to expect anyone to do anything we must at least ensure that any losses of fulfilment are matched with gains in fulfilment over the longer term.

There is one more thing to factor in: and that is that anyone rationally seeking to maximise their fulfilment returns will, when faced with a choice of a number of ways to do that, choose to carry out the activity with the highest such returns. In other words, to get anyone to do something, we must compensate them for the “opportunity cost” of doing that rather than something else.

It is these opportunity costs that necessitate unequal incentives, as some people and organisations will have far more lucrative opportunities than others. They can earn what we will call “surplus rewards” that significantly exceed the norm. So how do we get a handle of the scale of these surplus rewards, and therefore on the inequalities we need to allow to create incentives?

Also, when we are talking about preventing surplus rewards we do not mean suppressing wealth creation. Rather, this is about fairer, more morally optimal, wealth distribution, along the lines of Singer’s argument and the mutual help required by Golden Rule style morality, without compromising wealth creation and making everyone poorer.

Note that it is easy to fall into the trap of a circular argument as regards surplus rewards. The existence of surplus rewards creates a need for those able to receive such returns to be more highly rewarded to do any task, as otherwise they will do other things instead. Therefore surplus rewards become self justifying. To escape from this circularity, though, all we need to do is prevent the surplus rewards from arising in the first place.

We therefore need to distinguish between surplus rewards that are avoidable, and those that are unavoidable, and to recognise that surplus rewards will be avoidable if, at root, those rewards are only justified by the possibility of other, also ultimately avoidable, surplus rewards.

The concept of avoidable surplus rewards here is broadly similar to that known to economists as “economic rent”, meaning “an amount of money earned that exceeds that which is economically or socially necessary” (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/economicrent.asp). Of course, “exceeds that which is economically or socially necessary” needs to be unpacked. In the context of this discussion, an avoidable surplus reward means any reallocatable surplus reward that could actually be reallocated in a way that would improve the lot of the worst off . Not also, that by “reallocation” here we don’t just mean taking the surplus reward and sharing it, but also the “pre-distribution” discussed above, meaning changing the way resources are owned and controlled so that the surplus reward does not get generated in the first place, meaning that the reward is in effect redistributed because other people pay less for what they need, or avoid being underpaid for their own outputs.

So if rewards that exceed what is economically or socially necessary are economic rent, are there any, in that sense, necessary surplus rewards?

The short answer is “yes”. For example, “surplus rewards” might be sensible to resolve a genuine shortage as quickly as possible. Indeed, we can generalise the concept of “genuine shortage” to mean any situation where there is a critical unmet need. For example, “prizes” are likely to be justifiable for finding the cures to deadly diseases. A necessary surplus reward is an incentive that, if removed, would make the lot of the worst off even worse off.

Notice that the above implies that many, perhaps most, necessary surplus rewards are time limited, even one-offs. Society should redistribute or pre-distribute surplus rewards where-ever it can, meaning where doing so would make the worse off better off.

Now, one of the key advantages of pre-distribution is that it limits the extent to which a minority of people controlling critical resources, such as land or houses, or owning the only major factory on town, can extract economic rent, such as actual rent or artificially low wages, from everyone else. Thus pre-distribution operates to suppress avoidable surplus rewards. As such it is preferable to redistribution, which will tend to crudely reallocate a proportion of surplus rewards above certain thresholds, and therefore could accidentally suppress unavoidable as well as avoidable rewards, there-by reducing incentives, potentially ultimately to the point where economic activity is so hampered that the worse off end up still worse off.

In practice though, some redistribution will be necessary, not only because pre-distribution will usually not eliminate all avoidable surplus rewards with total efficiency, but because of the need to pay for universal services, such as security or healthcare. Any such service funded progressively, so that the richest pay more, and then delivered equally to all purely on the basis of need, will be redistributive in its effects, as compared to a situation where say security and healthcare are provided according to the ability to pay, and not funded from progressive taxation.

The problem is that the level and extent of unavoidable surplus rewards seems impossible to calculate, meaning that all societies can do realistically is to dampen income inequalities empirically, by trial and error. For example, most obviously, we could increase marginal tax rates or wealth taxes to see how much we can redistribute before we reach the point where we can improve the lot of the worst off in society no further, because the disincentivizing effects of redistribution start to reduce the total wealth that can then be redistributed, so potentially making whoever would then get to be the worst off in society even worse off.

Always remember that the size of these surplus rewards depends on how our society, and its economy, is organised in the first place. For example, the more efficient we make our markets, meaning the more closely we match demand and supply, the less we allow the prices for anything to be in any way “rigged”, the more we distribute ownership and control of critical resources and the better we disseminate accurate information about the things people might buy, then the lower the chances of anyone extracting “surplus rewards” from anyone else for their goods or services.

In other words, we can organise society to minimise surplus rewards, and thereby allow incentivization without needing to accept huge inequalities, because we will have eliminated self-justifying surplus rewards. Of course, many people would lose those surplus returns but they, and everyone else, would also have to pay less for many of the things they need.

Let’s clarify this through an example of surplus rewards. Imagine a situation where there is shortage of workers with specific skills, so there is a threat that your own society will lose these people to other societies who can pay them more. If the societies luring them away are no more moral than the one they are leaving, and if these workers’ lives are reasonably fulfilling within their current society, including at least their basic needs being met and being free of discrimination, then abandoning their own society, just to earn a bit more, is immoral. We might consider an immediate intervention involving simply preventing such people leaving, but that means establishing a potentially harmful precedent of limiting everyone’s autonomy by increasing collective power over the individual. On balance we might decide that the least harmful option, even to the fulfilment of the least well off in our society in the longer term, is therefore just to allow these workers their surplus rewards, so that we can retain their services. However, that still means that these people are, in effect, holding the other members of their society to ransom. Our society should work to change the economic and social conditions to remove the potential for these surplus rewards, for example by investing in training more people with this specific skill set.

Another oft-cited “practical” justification for inequality is the need to attract and retain investment. Now, we are not talking here about small investors; more the idea that we have to organise our societies to maximise the return of the very wealthy because we need the resources they control and can acquire.

Firstly, we need to recognise that this argument is circular: it is an instance of self-justifying surplus returns. Why do we need rich people? Because we need them to invest those riches, those resources. How can we incentivise them to do that? By allowing them to get even richer through their investments. That then sets up a vicious circle, increasing our need for the richer people’s riches even further. It’s a “dependency on rich investors” trap, which allows those “surplus rewards”, and the ability of rich investors to demand extra concessions from our society, to spiral entirely out of control. We need rich people to invest in our economy because of the resources they control, which increases the resources they control and our need for them still further.

To break this circularity we need to question the validity of the wealth of these very rich investors in the first place. We need to organise our societies in a way that redistributes their wealth. If they leave, who cares, provided their assets stay here. Once you have created a reasonable level of equality everyone becomes an investor, and dependency on rich investors is eliminated.

Creating a dependency on very rich investors who are external to our society is also unwise, as their interests are unlikely to be aligned with that of our own people, because they don’t live here and don’t share our mutual obligations to each other.

Sometimes the argument is made that we need these very risk investors for the entrepreneurial skills that made them extremely wealthy in the first place. In reality, though, it seems much more likely that, the majority of the time, the success of the most prominent entrepreneurs was a matter of luck as much, or more, than any socially desirable personal attributes. A major element of such “luck” is often a privileged upbringing, including inherited wealth. Also, for every such obviously successful entrepreneur, many, equally talented, would have failed, but have done so in obscurity. The “talents” society needs here are unlikely to be in short supply.

Occasionally, the least harmful short term option is to pay an extortioner, but that doesn’t remove the obligation to try and stop the extortion in the first place. Our societies are morally obliged to reduce such opportunities for surplus rewards. Morally, all avoidable surplus rewards should be redistributed, ideally pre-distributed, plus, where doing so would make the worse off better off, we should continually reorganise our societies to minimise otherwise unavoidable surplus rewards. Although it is a target we are never likely to entirely attain, we should aim for equal reward for equal sacrificed fulfilment.

If we did the above, eliminating avoidable surplus rewards and, where it makes the worse off better off, continually reorganising our society to limit the scope of unavoidable surplus rewards, it is likely we could incentivise economic activity without requiring massive inequalities.

One of the primary ways opportunities for surplus rewards can be reduced is through encouraging equality of opportunity, as it is inequalities of opportunity that allow some individuals privileges that then generate surplus rewards, such as access to superior educational opportunities, networks of contacts and elite “cultural capital”.

Equality of opportunity and limitations on reducing inequalities of opportunity

So far all of this has focussed on equality of outcomes, after factoring in any deductions to fulfilment resulting from the stress, strain, lost time or resources sacrificed as outlay or investment. Equality of opportunity has not been considered, yet it is obvious that if we follow the Golden Rule principle of respecting the wants and needs of others as equal to our own, provided the favour is returned, then, as inequality of opportunity will result, over time and in general, in inequality of fulfilment, that equality of opportunity should also be upheld.

There is only one exception to this, and it again follows from the general principle of maximising total fulfilment without making the least fulfilled even less fulfilled: that is that we shouldn’t make people less able to compete by taking away an advantage, where that advantage cannot be shared out and the existence of that advantage makes even the least well in society better off then they would be if those individuals did not have that advantage in the first place. The most obvious example of this is anything that gives individuals an innate capability in a given situation. Doing anything to suppress that innate capability, for example “talent”, if the outcomes of that innate capability are generally beneficial, especially to the least well off, would clearly not be morally justifiable.

Beyond that caveat, though, we should organise our societies to create equality of opportunity. One vital aspect of such a programme, that is usually neglected because in practice our societies have often been built in large part by the already rich and powerful, with the express purpose of protecting their own privileges, which generate a wide variety of surplus rewards, is again “pre-distribution”. Inequality of access to resources, including land, meaning space itself, will itself result in huge inequalities of opportunity, sometimes, if that involves, for example, lack of access to clean water or other essentials, even an early demise for those left worst off . Promoting equality of opportunity is another important argument in favour of pre-distribution.

Any society where the things that people need to live and make a living are controlled by the few means a concentration of wealth in the hands of that few, and with that concentrated wealth follows power and influence. That power allows the people who control these essential assets to rig the rules of society still further in their favour, accelerating inequality of opportunity, and creating class structures reinforced by networks of contacts and exclusive elite culture that locks in privilege. “Pre-distribution” is an essential defence against class hierarchies and plutocracy, as economics and politics can never be entirely separated.

Then we have the provision of basic services that are normally regarded as essential for equality of opportunity: such as education, healthcare and affordable housing, especially to give people the best start in life. In later years we have the need for retraining throughout working life.

Maximising equality of opportunity in itself strongly encourages equality of outcomes and means that more blunt interventions, involving redistribution, would not have to be implemented as invasively.

Thrift and savings

A major cause of inequality of opportunity is access to money itself.

The state of the poor can spiral downwards because of their very poverty: for example, they might literally not be able to afford to keep a roof over their heads and then, once destitute, find it impossible to retain or gain steady employment. Poverty can compound poverty. At the same time, the “undeserving” poor, who are the mirror-image of the “deserving rich”, can be seen as victims of their own fate due to their own fecklessness. Why should those who spent “to fix the roof when it was sunny”, or “saved for a rainy day”, be expected to use fruits of their sensible, self-disciplined, behaviour, to save those who were simply too irresponsible to bother?

In this way, with a cruel irony, the lack of access to money that can drive inequality is often portrayed as a sign of the fecklessness that justifies that very inequality.

This brings us to concepts such as postponed satisfaction and “thrift”: deferring some fulfilment in the present in the expectation that this will benefit levels of fulfilment over the longer term. It would violate basic Golden Rule morality to assume that someone who had deferred fulfilment in this way could then have that “saved” fulfilment taken away by someone else later, who could have equally deferred their own fulfilment but chose not to. That would mean a net transfer of fulfilment, over that time period, from the thrifty to the feckless. Furthermore, by incentivizing such behaviour, we would arguably be organising our society in a way that encourages irresponsibility, possibly even “infantilises” people.

Before going any further we should note that it is actually easier to justify being tougher on the “feckless poor” in a society that already has reasonable equality of opportunity, and that attempts to dampen down any inequalities that arise though bad luck, as then we can be more confident that such people could have saved for a rainy day in the first place, and therefore really are “feckless”. Otherwise we can’t readily distinguish between the feckless and non-feckless poor.

Nevertheless, thinking about thrift reveals a moral dilemma. In a situation where the thrifty are confronted by the plight of the feckless, meaning those who had “sunny days”, when they could have saved, but chose not to, what should we do? Should the thrifty be expected to use some of their savings to help these people out, or not? If we say they should help, then we are rewarding antisocial behaviour and discouraging sensible saving. If we say no, then we have to abandon the feckless to their fate. Not only does that mean suffering for the feckless, but it has knock on consequences. The dependents of the feckless may suffer, as may relatives or friends or charities who are instead called on to help. Also the feckless themselves may turn to crime, or place undue demands on other public services, such as healthcare. Then there is the guilt and empathetic distress of those who could have helped the feckless, but chose not to, or were prevented from doing so. Ultimately we risk hardening the heart of the whole of society, to the detriment of those who need help that they could never have “saved” for.

It could even be the case that the suffering of the “feckless” poor would be so great, their predicament so acute, including risk of death or even a fate worse than death, that, even if we transferred the “deferred fulfilment” of the thrifty to the feckless, and took into account the fulfilment the feckless had not deferred but had irresponsibly already enjoyed, then still, over the extended time period in question, if the thrifty help the feckless, that whoever then happens to end up worst off is better off than would have been the case if deferred fulfilment had not been transferred (always remember that the exact individuals or families to be worst off is not constant: it varies context to context depending on how we decide to organize our societies).

To illustrate this with an example, imagine you are with a party of people who have been stranded in the desert. Shortly, within hours, you will make it to civilisation and rescue. You have rationed your water supply, and, though you’ve been thirsty, you have more than enough water for you to make it. One of your associates, though, has guzzled their water supply. They are out of water and won’t last until rescue, unless you share your supply. Avoidance of minor discomfort for you, in the form of a little more thirst, means death for this less responsible colleague. What should you do? Hopefully, the answer is obvious.

The upshot is that, even if a narrow moralistic decision would be to refuse help to the feckless, a wider moralistic decision may be that, given the side-effects of not helping out, and how desperate the plight of the feckless might really be, we are still obliged to do so.

That is a very sub-optimal outcome. A better approach is instead for us to agree to mutually bind each other to a reasonable amount of thrift: meaning that when the “sun is shining” a system of mandatory contribution requires us all to pay into funding “social insurance”. Such contributions have to be progressive in nature as some will be able to save more than others. Social insurance here means a minimum safety net in terms of benefit payments and provision of public services, so that no one lacks basics such as food or water, shelter, clothing, heating or healthcare. Having compelled each other to engage in some thrift, the moral dilemma exposed here can never arise, and the feckless cannot emotionally or morally “blackmail” the thrifty.

Such “social insurance” in itself also prevents the most egregious forms of inequality, going a long way to address the concerns raised in Singer’s argument. Finally, note that mandatory “social insurance” helps to protect those who choose to defer fulfilment from ever having to share that fulfilment with those who choose not to defer.

Savings, investment and capital returns

With social insurance in place we can, indeed should, accept that people keep for themselves savings that reflect deferred fulfilment, indeed deferred fulfilment boosted by a rate to reflect the risk that fulfilment deferred may in fact never be received, for a variety of reasons, including the unexpected death of the deferrer. We are still left, though, with another significant issue, that is, in itself, often the most major, cause of inequality, and that is the normally exponentiating returns on investment.

Basically, in a point perhaps made most famously by Thomas Piketty in “Capitalism on the 21st Century”, wealth begets wealth. In a money based society the problem of inequality caused by capital accumulation is acute, as it will always have a tendency to spiral out of control.

Firstly, consider that those with higher incomes can afford not only to save more than those on lower incomes but also proportionately more. Let’s do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to demonstrate this. Assuming a reasonably equal society, where the most demanding and impactful job pays only 10 times more than the least. Let’s further assume that the poorest save 0.1 or 10% of their income, because they can’t save any more and still be able to afford the things they need to live. These savings could be anything from saving up to buy a new car to paying down a mortgage on a home.

Now the richest earn 10 times more than the poorest. As the poorest earn enough to live, 0.9, or 90% of the income of the richest is therefore superfluous to what they need to live: actually it’s bit more than that (0.91) as we assumed that the poorest can save 10% of their own income and still afford to live, but this is only a rough calculation so we’ll ignore that. Let’s assume that the richest don’t live frugally, and actually spent 0.5 of their income on a higher standard of living, and therefore only save 0.5 of their income, so less than the 0.9 they could save.

The savings rate of the richest is then 0.5 * 10 compared to 0.1 for the poorest, or 50 times greater than the poorest, although the difference in incomes is only 10 times.

If we assume that this really very equal society has no inherited wealth, and that the lifetimes of the richest and poorest are the same, that means that, with only a 10 fold difference income, the richest accumulate 50 times more wealth than the poorest, just by being able to save more.

Of course, it gets worse. If we assume that people are able to generate a real income on their savings then this adds more to the earnings of the richest than the poorest, because the richest have more savings. That increased income allows them to save still more, which further increases their investment earnings and allows them to save yet more, in a process that is exponential. Further, this is assuming that the richest earn the same rate on their savings than the poorest: in practice this won’t be the case as the richest are likely to benefit from higher tiers of interest rates and be able to make riskier investments that, on average in the longer term, despite any short term losses, which the richest can absorb, will pay more.

The richest might also use their wealth to acquire critical assets, such as land and buildings, that generate an even higher rate of return through economic rent extraction.

Then add in the fact that the wealth of the richest will open doors and allow them to build networks of useful connections. Soon that spills over into lobbying and involvement in politics, including buying influence over the media, politicians and political parties: possibly even funding campaigns to run for office in their own right. Capital accumulation then turns into political power, and rule rigging, allowing the richest to acquire still more wealth. Unless our reasonably equal society is very careful, it will not remain reasonably equal for very long.

This also has implications for deferred fulfilment and “thrift”. If the deferred fulfilment of the thrifty takes the form of investment, then that could produce exponentiating capital returns, along the lines described above. Now, to prevent the feckless being able to parasitise on the thrifty and “steal” their fulfilment, we have seen that we are morally obliged to try and organise our societies in such a way that deferred fulfilment is protected, including a little boost to compensate for the fact that some deferred fulfilment is likely to be lost before it can be enjoyed. Superficially, Golden Rule style morality does not oblige us to ensure any return on “deferred fulfilment” beyond that.

There is, however, another problem to solve, and that is one of investment generally. Investment can produce extremely unequal outcomes in terms of fulfilment, partly because, as described above, it can cause the wealth, influence and eventually power of some to spiral out of control, but also because it allows some who could work to avoid obligations to work, and instead use returns on investments to essentially live off the labour of others. Any work such people do is purely out of choice: to make their lives meaningful, rather than the general drudgery imposed by necessity that fills the active hours of the many.

If a society needs an amount of unsatisfying work to be done then ideally the obligation to do those tasks, as they represent a sacrifice of fulfilment on the part of the workers, should be spread as evenly across society as possible. Certainly no one should be forced to do this work out of necessity, while others have complete control of their own time and efforts and can avoid such work entirely, sometimes even down to domestic chores. Should some people voluntarily choose to do the unsatisfying work for the remuneration it generates, while others choose to forgo that remuneration and not do the work, that’s fine, but no one should be compelled by circumstances to do this work while others can live purely off their wealth.

In reality, of course, the situation is usually even worse than this, as the wealthy control critical, limited, resources, such as the land, have the lion’s share of economic and political power and can force the workers to toil for effective remuneration, especially once basic living costs such as housing are deducted, that are far lower than they would be expected if those living off their wealth and the workers were really bidding for access to each others assets or services on an equal basis. In such a, fairly typical, scenario, those marginalised in terms of economic and political power are not only forced to do the unsatisfying work, but to do so at below what would be market rates, so they end up both time-poor as well as materially poor. Those who sacrifice the majority of their life energies to drudgery are the poorest rather than the richest, the very opposite of what should be the case in terms of meaningful equality in life fulfilment. Instead we see a repeating pattern echoing down history of masters and slaves, lords and serfs and owners and wage-slaves.

We might therefore feel compelled to redistribute all investment returns beyond those needed to support “thrift”. Then, however, we have another problem: if we disincentivize investment we damage the economy. Redistribute too far, therefore, and we end up making the lot of whoever would then be the worst off in society worse than they would have been otherwise, because the reduction in available wealth then starts to diminish what can be redistributed.

To guide the decision about when and how to redistribute, i.e. tax, investment returns so as to maximise what can be be redistributed while minimising any economic damage that could make the worst off even worse off, it helps to distinguish between different types of savings and investment. Firstly, we have saving, i.e. storing value. This is equivalent to the thrift we were discussing above, and returns equal to preserving real value, plus a little boost to reflect the fact that sometimes the stored value/deferred fulfilment never actually gets used/“claimed back”, i.e. converted into real resources, is the morally optimal return to support basic “saving for a rainy day”. Then we have what we will term “preserving a stake”, meaning owning, and often using, an essential asset, so that the value of the asset tracks other assets of the same class, This has the upshot that, should people need to change the exact asset they own, they can sell their existing asset, and that should yield what they need to buy a new asset of the same class, essentially allowing them to swap assets. Owning a home is an example of an investment of this type, and it would be immoral to tax any increase in the value of a person’s home, as then, should they need to move home, they may no longer be able to afford to do so. Shelter is a basic need so preserving a stake in a home, as in a sole primary residence, is perfectly acceptable.

Then we have speculation, meaning investing purely in the hope that the value of the assets purchased will increase, in order to generate a monetary return. As this involves “making money” without adding to the supply of resources, speculation is not wealth creation but really a form of redistribution, in this case from those speculators who have gambled and lost to those who have gambled and won, plus from those who have had the prices for whatever they need to buy, directly or indirectly, driven up by speculative activity, to the successful speculators. We will explore the nature of “speculation” a bit more shortly, but for now note that it is arguably morally obligatory to tax away speculative returns that significantly exceed those required just to “store value”.

Discouraging speculation is also likely to encourage the fourth and final type of saving or investment: “genuine investment”, as well as helping avert the emergence of dangerous “asset price bubbles”. Genuine investment is where money is used to buy resources that are then organised in such a way as to generate net extra resources, for example, investing money in the set-up or expansion of a business. This is the type of investment we need to incentivise in order to boost economic activity. However, not all economic activity is equally pro-social. Some activities might have hidden costs to general society, for example harms to the environment, or running down non-replenishable resources. Others might have beneficial side-effects, for example helping to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Rather than taxing all genuine investment returns equally, it is therefore morally preferable to differentiate between different classes of investment: to encourage investment in activities that are actually beneficial, including making whoever will then be worst off better off, while discouraging investment in those that cause hidden costs, by adding to the tax extracted from investment returns the compensation due to wider society.

As with earnings, the tax regimes for different classes of investment cannot be set purely by calculation but also empirically: in a similar way to earnings, we should tax and redistribute such returns up to but not beyond the point where whatever we deem as a society desirable investment targets are met.

As wealth concentrations can spiral out of control it is also important that investment returns are taxed progressively, with higher rates of tax on higher returns. Small investors should be taxed lightly or not at all, richer investors more in order to constrain potentially exponentiating inequalities, and the tendency of the wealthy to just be able to live off the servitude of others. Allowances should be made for moral risk-taking, so that higher risk investments are taxed more lightly if the worse off are better off when this risk taking happens than whoever would then be worse off would be if it didn’t. Examples here could include investing in possible medical treatments, or in new technologies to address the climate emergency. This would contrast with immoral, irresponsible, risk taking, such as “investing” in collateralized subprime mortgages in a way that sparks a global financial crisis.

Should we ever though, while there is still toil to do, tax investment returns more lightly than earnings from work, given that the latter can involve considerable sacrifices in terms of fulfilment due to time and effort expended, where-as investments yielding possibly taxable net returns do not? If we do so, aren’t we facilitating people to try and live off investments rather than doing their share of toil, and there-by reducing equality? As a general “rule of thumb” avoiding this seems inarguable, but it is not possible to declare it an inviolable principle, as there could be activities needing investment where the benefits, especially to whoever would then be worst off, would be huge, such as finding cures for deadly diseases, where very low rates of taxation for those investment classes would be morally justifiable.

Usually though, in the current world, it is very likely that, even following the above guidelines, we could ever redistribute enough to prevent the basic inequity that some people can make wealth simply through already being wealthy, without so disincentivizing investment that we harm our economies to the point where whoever ends up worse off is then even worse off. We find ourselves, as touched upon above, in a “dependency on rich investors” trap. The only way out of that trap is to move toward pre-distribution: to ensure, across the population, reasonably equal shares in ownership and control of the forms of wealth that generate more wealth in the first place. Then we don’t have to pander to ultra-rich investors to secure investors, because everyone is a potential small investor with a pre-existing stakeholding in the means of producing wealth instead.

Ultimately, we could transition, through continuing automation, to a situation where everyone owns enough of the wealth generating capacity of the economy to be supported without any need for toil, with work instead being pursued where it contributes to fulfilment in its own right, as a way of providing life with meaning and not as a necessity. Certainly if we don’t do this, and allow the ultra-rich few to retain control of a then fully automated economy, we end up instead with the mass of the population not just unemployed, but possibly subject to active or passive genocide as dangerous “pests”, in the manner of the Native Americans after the arrival of the Europeans, or as currently being done by the Israelis to the Palestinian people.

As it is self-reinforcing inequalities that are the concern here, there are no issues with shared, mutual forms of capital accumulation in which everyone can participate reasonably equally, e.g. possibly public pension schemes or sovereign wealth funds, and such investments could be tax free.

What this all means for the idea of the “deserving rich” in the real world

Golden Rule style morality, though it implies a strong commitment to ensuring equality of outcomes, does not require absolute equality of outcomes moment to moment. It accepts that respecting fulfilment outcomes, over an extended period, means that we should try and avoid obligating the transfer of deferred fulfilment from those who chose to so defer to those who chose not to, as that could mean a transfer of net fulfilment over that period from the former to the latter, as well as possibly incentivizing irresponsibility. Meanwhile, even though we should aim for equality of outcomes for fulfilment sacrificed as the ideal, the need to incentivize prosocial economic activity means that Golden Rule style morality does not require that equality to be achieved in practice. Even absolute equality of opportunity is not mandated, as we are not required to suppress otherwise non-shareable innate competitive advantages that are likely, if exercised, to benefit the less well off, such as socially useful talents. Therefore, in so far as fulfilment corresponds to access to resources, absolute equality in terms of wealth is not required, though such inequalities must never be allowed to spiral to the point where they reduce the fulfilment of the less fulfilled. Therefore the relatively “rich” can exist. Therefore, to ask “who are the deserving rich” is valid and does not embody a contradiction in terms. The questions become more about how that wealth can be generated and how large those inequalities can be allowed to become, while still being “moral”.

We have established that relative riches, meaning economic inequalities, are justifiable provided those inequalities, by providing incentives to get useful tasks done, act to improve the lot of the less well off, or at least improve the total fulfilment of society without making the situation of whoever then ends up the worst off even worse. Are the ways relative riches are generated in the contemporary world consistent with this, and therefore justifiable?

Firstly, let’s take the observation that a major source of inequality is capital accumulation: wealth begetting wealth. How, if we drill down into a bit more detail, does this process work? The theory, and the possibly generally beneficial aspect of this, though even the generally beneficial aspects will often be offset by hidden costs (“negative externalities” in the economic jargon), such as environmental damage, is that wealth is invested to create even more wealth, for example to build a factory, expand food production or construct a power plant. In practice though, most “investment” does no such thing, and instead is used to buy up assets that are in limited supply and then extract economic rent (e.g. as in houses and landlordism) or to “bet” on the real value of existing assets increasing, i.e. amounts more to speculation than investment. For example, investments in shares do not normally allow a company to expand its own activities: that only happens when a company issues new shares and then spends the money received directly on expanding “production”. Instead shares are usually bought off other existing share-holders purely in the hope that the value of the shares will be more likely to go up than go down. The existence of this “secondary market” in shares may increase real investment a little by boosting the worth of shares when a company actually issues new shares, because those shares will be more easily re-sellable, but, broadly, such share dealing does not create real wealth.

Money is merely a transferable claim on resources: it isn’t the resources themselves. Any activity that “makes money” without creating real new wealth has to be parasitic, in reality merely re-distributing rather than generating wealth, as discussed here: https://gezwinstanley.wordpress.com/tulips-and-cryptocurrencies-is-speculation-theft/ .

Then there are the other questionable sources of wealth: essentially crime and other crimes that are so significant and successful that the powerful perpetrators get to designate them non-crimes.

According to this March 2017 report (“Transnational Crime and the Developing World: ”https://gfintegrity.org/issue/transnational-crime/) from the US think tank “Global Financial Integrity”, globally transnational crime is valued at an average of $1.6 trillion to $2.2 trillion annually. That includes 11 categories of criminal activities: the trafficking of drugs, arms, humans, human organs, and cultural property; counterfeiting, illegal wildlife crime, illegal fishing, illegal logging, illegal mining, and crude oil theft. Counterfeiting ($923 billion to $1.13 trillion) and drug trafficking ($426 billion to $652 billion) have the highest and second-highest values, respectively; illegal logging is the most valuable natural resource crime ($52 billion to $157 billion).

Most of that criminal revenue then needs to be laundered to make it look legitimate. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimates that between 2% and 5% of global GDP is laundered each year. That’s between EUR 715 billion and 1.87 trillion each year (https://www.europol.europa.eu/crime-areas/economic-crime/money-laundering).

Of course the definition of crime is fluid, and the very most successful “criminals” of all obtain legal cover from states under their own influence. Here we should start with the simple expropriation of wealth by the powerful: kleptocracy ancient and modern. The seizure of Russian assets by oligarchs was estimated to be worth roughly a trillion dollars in 2020 (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/defending-the-united-states-against-russian-dark-money/ ), an amount of a scale equivalent, as we have seen, to all annual global transnational crime. With a quarter of that wealth being held by Putin and his closest associates, Putin himself may, in reality, be the richest person in the world. It isn’t just Russia either: in 2016, following the publication of the Panama papers it was estimated that “More than $12tn (£8tn) has been siphoned out of Russia, China and other emerging economies into the secretive world of offshore finance”(https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/08/offshore-finance-emerging-countries-russia-david-cameron-summit ).

Also, Putin and his allies are far from being alone as ultra-wealthy kleptocrats. The sum of the assets alleged to have been appropriated by the family of the Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarek is estimated at more than $700 billion. Moammar Kadafi secretly salted away more than $200 billion in bank accounts, while the Saud family are worth 1.4 trillion (https://wealthpol.web.ox.ac.uk/article/how-rich-are-dictators). Note that these fortunes dwarf those of even the most successful “officially” recognised criminals. The richest of those was the drug lord Pablo Escobar , who was apparently worth a mere $30 billion (https://www.newsweek.com/wealthiest-criminals-ranked-pictures-slideshow-list-el-chapo-escobar-madoff-1046344?slide=49). Humanity’s richest villains have tended to be those who essentially also make the laws.

We could also consider the way more than a third of land in Britain is still owned by the aristocracy and traditional landed gentry (https://www.countrylife.co.uk/articles/who-really-owns-britain-20219), all ultimately the result of land grabs through conquests, the Dissolution of the properties of the Catholic Church, enclosures and “clearances”. In the words of the 18th Century English protest poem “The Goose and the Common”:

“The law locks up the man or woman
Who steals the goose from off the common
But leaves the greater villain loose
Who steals the common from off the goose.”.

Then there are hugely lucrative once state assisted crimes such as mass slavery or the opium trade, the latter involving not just the British but also aspiring US multimillionaires such as John Astor too (https://www.history.com/news/john-jacob-astor-opium-fortune-millionaire). We could go further still and take into account the colonisation of entire continents by European settlers, in the Americas causing a genocide of the indigenous population so great that the effects show up in ice cores (https://eos.org/articles/european-contact-with-the-americas-may-have-triggered-global-cooling). Soon Proudhon declaring “all property is theft” starts to seem quite reasonable.

Other than Putin, and any other holders of “dark” fortunes who wish to remain anonymous, the 10 richest people in the world (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#2a3d80f53d78) are currently all men of generally European heritage, all but one is American (the other is French) and seven out of ten, even by already favourable US standards, had a privileged start in life: Elon Musk’s family were famously in the emerald business, Jeff Bezos received $300 000 from his parents to start Amazon, Bernard Arnault’s first job was in the family firm, rising to be its president seven years after starting, Zuckerberg was educated at the sixth oldest boarding school in the US, Warren Buffett was the son of a congressman, Bill Gates went to private school and his father was a prominent lawyer, while his mother served as a director on the board of the same charity as the chair of IBM, and it was through this link that Gates got his first break, Steve Ballmer was also privately educated, and made his fortune through early association with Bill Gates and Microsoft.

Only Larry Ellison, Larry Page (US) and Sergey Brin have more humble origins, though even Pages’s father was a professor at Michigan State University.

To give a sense of the scale of the fortunes here Elon Musk’s net worth, at the top of that list, was estimated, at the time of writing, at $226.9 billion dollars, and Steve Ballmer’s, at the bottom of the list, at $121.5 billion. All the fortunes on that list, in fact no more than just the top eight, exceed the total wealth of the poorest half of humanity (https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/just-8-men-own-same-wealth-half-world).

In practice those wealth and income inequalities are huge, both within countries and globally. According to the “World Inequality Database” (https://wid.world/), in 2022, the last year with data at the time of writing, the average income among the top 1% of earners in the human population was then 124 times the average income of the bottom 50%. As we would expect, as those earning more can spend a higher proportion of their income on assets and save much more, the wealth disparities are even greater: with those in the top 1% on average owning 1267 times the average wealth of those in the bottom 50%. In the UK the corresponding figures are 25 times (average income among the top 1% as compared to the average income among the bottom 50%) and 224 times (average wealth of the 1% richest as compared to the average wealth of the 50% poorest). The figures for the USA are shocking (and show a clear long term worsening trend in both income and wealth disparities): 100 times for the average income difference for someone in the top 1% compared to someone in the bottom 50%, and 1163 times for the disparity in the average wealth of anyone in the 1% richest as compared to the 50% poorest. As stated by the “Inequality Project” of the US “Institute for Policy Studies” (https://inequality.org/) “Among industrial nations, the United States is by far the most top-heavy, with much greater shares of national wealth and income going to the richest 1 percent than any other country.” Perhaps it is no surprise that the USA is tearing itself apart.

Can these differentials be explained? A lot depends on where you are born and where you live. If you want to be in the richest top ten, then that had best be the USA. If you want to die of starvation, easily preventable disease or violently, then some climate change ravaged conflict zone in the global south would be your best option. For a few decades such global inequality was declining, due to the reduction in extreme poverty in China and India (https://www.sciencedirect.com/S0954349X2400002X). Since COVID, however, the situation may again be changing, with Oxfam making this claim: “Since 2020, the richest five men in the world have doubled their fortunes. During the same period, almost five billion people globally have become poorer (https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/inequality-inc).

Now the reciprocal Golden Rule style arrangements we are exploring here mean that members of a society that is at least purportedly moral have strong obligations to each other. There is, as yet, no cohesive global moral society, though there are the beginnings of one (e.g., the UN and international law) upon which we are morally obliged to build. Right now, though, it could be contended that inequalities between different societies across the world are inevitable, as our reciprocal obligations to each other are weak, and we ought to work to strengthen those obligations and build a global moral society. However, even at this early stage of a worldwide community these differentials look extreme. After all, one of the best ways to evolve a global society is to show each other some compassion.

Within what are meant to be fully functional societies these differentials constitute a fundamental abrogation of what are meant to be mutual obligations. Even in the case of the UK’s income differential, is it really credible that the only way to get people in the top 1% of earners to do whatever it is they do is to pay them 25 times more, on average, than the average worker in the bottom half of earners? It seems much more likely that differential is significantly “powered” by self justifying surplus returns: essentially by forms of privilege. The wealth differential of 224 times is even more cataclysmic, especially as that means some people own multiple houses and estates while many have no permanent, secure home.

The US case, with levels of income and wealth inequality just shy of those for humanity as a whole, even though humanity as a whole lacks a single overarching integrated “society”, paint a picture of US society as basically broken.

What, though, about those top ten “officially” richest people, nine of whom are US citizens? Are they deserving of their riches? In so far as their activities have had beneficial effects, was such vast “surplus returns” really necessary to incentivise their efforts?

In terms of the advantages they have brought to wider humanity let’s give these multi-billionaires the benefit of the doubt. None of the “officially” richest are kleptocrats or overtly criminal. Possibly, when considering who has contributed to improving the lot of humanity, we should discount Bernard Arnault and his luxury goods empire, or Warren Buffet with his fortune based on financial speculation, so in substantial part amounting to making money rather than creating wealth, and therefore being parasitic. The others were instead on the ground floor of tech revolutions, especially those revolutions driven by IT, from the personal computer to self-driving cars, and made major strides in commercialising innovations and making them available to many.

Aside from Google’s original “PageRank” algorithm, which enabled search engines to better score the relevancy of results, but was itself part funded by public money, including from the US Defence Advanced Projects Research Agency (DARPA), these people didn’t invent the fundamental tech behind these tech revolutions. Those that did in fact, didn’t make very much money, plus, again, all had benefited from public investments, from US Government funding towards semiconductor research at Bell Labs contributing to the invention of the transistor through to the World Wide Web being invented at CERN, plus. of course. the originally entirely state funded, at vast expense, development of the technologies to access extraterrestrial space. A lot of this research was motivated by military conflict, actual and potential, from the early development of electronic computers in World War Two through to the famous, again DAPRA led, Cold War inspired, invention of the internet, as a means to keep computer networks running even in the event of disruption by nuclear attack, by the way of lots of ballistic missiles and spy satellites. Even Larry Ellison’s Oracle relational database was initially created for the CIA.

As for the engineers and scientists who created the IT revolution, none amassed vast fortunes. Neither John W. Mauchly and J. Presper Eckert, who designed what was arguably the first true fully programmable computer, nor William Shockley, John Bardeen and Walter Brattain who invented the transistor for Bell Labs, were particularly successful in business. Ted Hoff, who designed the microprocessor, is estimated to be around worth $20 million (https://chillybuzz.com/unearthing-ted-hoffs-mysterious-net-worth-what-was-the-father-of-microprocessors-worth/), while Vint Cerf and Bob Khan, who devised the TCP/IP protocol that is the basis of the internet, come in at around $10 million (https://famouspeopletoday.com/vint-cerf/) and $4 million (https://famouspeopletoday.com/bob-kahn/) respectively. Tim Berners-Lee, who created the ideas behind the world world web, has an estimated worth of $10 million (https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/tim-berners-lee-net-worth/).

Of course, the tech multi-billionaires on the Forbes rich list did bring these technologies to market and roll them out on scale. Does this imply though, that to get those tasks done, they needed to receive surplus rewards so great they are north of $100 billion, tens of thousands of times greater than the fortunes of those who created these technologies, and that when combined amount to more than the wealth of the poorest half of humanity?

It is far more credible that a major chunk of this wealth was derived from what we have called avoidable surplus returns, or, in other words, from forms of “economic rent”. The fact of the matter is, that even in terms of classical or neoclassical economics, it is arguable that billionaires should not exist. In a market where, over a specified period, supply can smoothly track demand, then, in theory, competition between producers should drive down prices to the point where profits only amount to what is necessary to cause those engaged in the profit generating activity to do that rather than something else, or “normal profits” in the jargon.

So how did these individuals get so disproportionately rich? Having the research and development needed to create your products funded by the public is an excellent start, as that is essentially a hidden subsidy. Then being on the ground floor of the resultant technological revolution helps massively: your product is more likely to be protected by patents, so constituting a monopoly, and even if it is only one of whole generations of similar products all embodying the same new technology but produced by multiple suppliers then, if the demand for the new tech is high due to the advantages it brings or even just fad, it will initially exceed supply, allowing all suppliers in the new market to initially make supernormal profits. Exploiting the relative ignorance and gullibility of your consumers can help, as you use media relations and advertising to talk up demand for your products among your growing “fan base”. Then you exploit your buying power to source materials and labour from across the globe at the cheapest possible prices, regardless of the impact on workers or the environment. If you retain a major share-holding, in a company you helped found, you can then vote yourself an unfairly large chunk of those supernormal profits too. Add to that the possibility of using your wealth to fight legal battles and influence politics and you can rig the rules still further in your favour.

Some economists (https://evonomics.com/they-dont-just-hide-their-money-economist-says-billionaire-wealth/.) have tried to estimate the proportion of US billionaire wealth derived from economic rents by comparing “competitive” and “non-competitive” industries, and come up with the figure of 74%, while also noting that it is possible that the figure is an underestimate, because “After all, the perfect competition of economics textbooks rarely exists in reality and there must be many pockets of rents in what I call the ‘competitive industries’ as well.”.

Markets can fail on other ways too. There could, for example, be collusion over price. Though active collusion is difficult to agree and often illegal, passive collusion can emerge quite easily, especially if prices are transparent and there are few suppliers engaged in a market, and each supplier anticipates that any attempt they make to undercut and steal custom from their rivals will be rapidly matched, therefore just driving a mutually destructive price war.. Consider, for example, how banks usually fail to readily pass on interest rate rises to savers, or how much easier it is for a small group of employers, in a certain area and industry, to collude to keep wages low, than it is for the far more numerous workers to collude to defend their wages, unless, of course, the workers are in a union.

These hyper-concentrations of wealth are a problem in their own right. A lot of this wealth amounts to the wealth of poorer being distributed upwards, as economic rents mean the non super-rich have to pay more than is necessary for what they buy while their earnings, such as wages, could also be being suppressed. That wealth should be redistributed and, even better, pre-distributed, so it naturally accumulates across all those involved in wealth creation and not just the top owner-managers. Additionally, enough wealth must be allocated so as to meet real need, especially that of the worst off, as per Singer’s argument.

This maldistribution of wealth has further negative side-effects, such as “government capture” by the extremely wealthy, as they lobby, take-over the media, fund political parties or even run for the highest offices themselves. This process tends to even undermine economic growth, with research indicating that “No, billionaires don’t drive economic growth – and crony billionaires strangle it” (https://www.theguardian.com/billionaires-economic-growth), based on the finding that “ a greater presence of billionaires in a country actually slows down its economic growth”, with “politically connected” billionaires having a negative effect, and “politically unconnected billionaires an effect indistinguishable from zero.” This makes any argument attempting to assert that such extreme inequalities are justifiable because they make everyone better off, including whoever is worst off, nonsensical.

There can be one singular excuse for the extremely wealthy, and that can only be that they are genuinely amassing economic power in order to change the system from within. These are people who would be using their wealth to cancel out the conditions that allowed their extreme wealth in the first place. Are there any such billionaires? Remember that here we don’t just mean mere philanthropy, because of all the issues noted above with charity, especially when bestowed by the already powerful. We mean actively attempting to reform the system so as to avoid these concentrations of wealth in the first place.

Consider, for example, a figure such as George Soros, most infamous for his shorting of the British pound. That is arguably an exploitation of a market advantage in a way that that, if Soros hadn’t done so, someone else would have. Such an action damaged the UK economy and hurt British people: it is only moral if Soros then used these otherwise ill-gotten gains to change the system to make such behaviours less likely in future: to try and restrict the privileges of himself and others in his position.

As of December 2023, Soros was worth $6.7 billion, having given away $32 billion to charitable causes, most notably his network of “Open Society” foundations, with the objective of “opening up closed societies, making open societies more viable, and promoting a critical mode of thinking.”. For Soros an open society is one that avoids all-encompassing dogma and is based upon free, democratic internal debate and decision-making.

Now, Soros’s attitude to the world’s prevailing economic order is complex. In 1997 he wrote the following: “Although I have made a fortune in the financial markets, I now fear that the untrammelled intensification of laissez-faire capitalism and the spread of market values into all areas of life is endangering our open and democratic society. The main enemy of the open society, I believe, is no longer the communist but the capitalist threat.” It should be recognised that much of Soros’s analysis that follows in the same article is tragically prophetic, including “The system of robber capitalism that has taken hold in Russia is so iniquitous that people may well turn to a charismatic leader promising national revival at the cost of civil liberties.”. (All of these George Soros quotes are from: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1997/02/the-capitalist-threat/376773/ ).

While the promotion of democracy is entirely laudable, it nevertheless should be noted that Soros has done little to act on his doubts about capitalism. Though arguably he is among the closest out of the billionaire class to have nearly jumped the high bar of working to revoke the conditions of their own creation, Soros has, sadly, not succeeded in doing so, possibly because of an innate reticence to fully accept that extreme concentrations of wealth such as his own are signs that the system has failed in the first place (in 2018 this resulted in the polite debate between the Guardian newspaper and Soros here: https://www.theguardian.com/the-george-soros-philosophy-and-its-fatal-flaw and https://www.theguardian.com/george-soros-im-a-passionate-critic-of-market-fundamentalism)

Therefore it is hard to identify a multi-billionaire who has actively worked for the dissolution of their own class.

So who are the deserving rich?

We are talking about the relatively rich. Forget the billionaires and multi-billionaires: they should not exist and we should tax them to bits, as well as reorganising things so that wealth initially accumulates where it is generated in the first place.

You are likely to already know the deserving relatively rich. You may even be one yourself. These are, for example, the health professional who has trained hard and works long, stressful hours to serve their patients: perhaps your local GP. They are the local trades person who has also worked every waking hour building up a profitable business honestly providing essential services to their community. They are the person who has avoided luxury expenditure and diligently saved away their earnings for a comfortable retirement. They may even be the person who has worked 24/7 for many years in public service, such as your local political representative, provided they haven’t at the same time taken up lucrative second jobs or accepted money from lobbyists.

Right now, though, we have a world when in 2024, Oxfam, after making the observation above about 5 billion people getting poorer since 2020, then went on to say this “Hardship and hunger are a daily reality for many people worldwide. At current rates, it will take 230 years to end poverty, but we could have our first trillionaire in a decade.”

The global climate crisis will only make this situation even worse. A world where the rich get richer, and the richest notoriously prep for the apocalypse, while the poorest get poorer, is one where, whether we are thinking of Singer’s challenge that at least everyone’s basic needs should be met, or Golden Rule style concerns that we should respect the wants and needs of others as equal to our own, morality, and with it compassion, has been turned on its head.

One people bitterly divided?

Many people will have seen news images from the West Bank, of Israeli settlers attempting to steal the land of Palestinian farmers. The Israelis, having adopted the same farming lifestyle in the same terrain, are clad in similar clothes to the Palestinians, also speak a “West Semitic” group language that is indistinguishable from Arabic to anyone who speaks neither Arabic or Hebrew, and have even been toned to the identical tan from working outside in the same climate. If they are religious, they will worship the same Abrahamic god.

An outsider could be forgiven for seeing them all as the same people.

Of course, if you have any recent ancestry from anywhere near the Mediterranean Sea, or Europe, then you are Jew-“ish”, including being descended from 1st Century Hebrews living in Palestine at the time of the Great Revolt against the Roman Empire and the ensuing most infamous chapter in the Diaspora. The 1st Century population of North Africa, West Asia and Europe is estimated at about 70 million. 2000 years is roughly 60 human generations, so we each have 2 to the power of 60 possible ancestors back then, or, thinking about it in another way, 2 to the power of 60 “spaces” in that line of our family tree 60 generations ago. Now the chance of any specific individual out of that 70 million occupying a specific space on that family tree, 60 generations ago, is 1 in 70 million, so the chance that any specific individual back then does not occupy a specific space on that family tree is 69 999 999/70 million.

However, remember there are 2 to the power of 60 possible ancestors, or spaces on that tree to be filled, 2000 years ago, and that’s a huge number, vastly greater than the number of people actually alive then, so the chance of any one of those 70 million avoiding every single one of those possible spaces on the family tree is therefore 69 999 999/70 million raised to the power of 2 raised to the power of 60. That number is basically ZERO, and it stays basically as ZERO even if we change these numbers and assumptions a lot.

The upshot is, over very broad areas of the planet, you don’t have to go back far in time to find a point where everyone alive then who has ANY descendants alive today is the ancestor of EVERYONE with any ancestry in that broad area of the planet, and will, in fact, be an ancestor many times over: in other words would appear in multiple spaces in that line of our family tree 60 generations ago, dear cousin.

So Jewish Israelis are indeed descended from 1st Century Hebrews, but also Arabs, Greeks, Romans and every other “ethnic” group then in existence. However, so are Palestinians.

Partly that’s because the Diaspora was never total, and was instead a series of migrations out of the Levant, offset at times by migrations back into the Levant, starting before the Great Revolt and continuing after it. At times, even after the disastrous Jewish revolts of the 1st and 2nd Centuries, and as late at the 7th Century, the majority of the population of the Levant is estimated to have been Jewish, but that population is estimated to have declined to 5000 at the start of the Ottoman era in the 16th Century .

In antiquity, Jews were distinguished from Arabs by culture, especially religious and political affiliations, rather than ancestry. Both terms have been applied to certain groups living in the Middle East, including the Levant, for nearly three thousand years: since the 8th Century BCE in the case of the label “Jew”, most likely originally meaning a member of the kingdom of Judah, and from the 9th Century BCE for “Arab”, so the “labels” are of roughly the same age. Possibly the best way to think about this is in terms of a number of closely related tribes, speaking similar languages and interacting with each other, but with some forming settled communities on the more fertile land, who over time developed different identities for themselves around culture, religion and politics, including, for example, the Jewish and the Phoenicians, while the “Arabs” initially designated the tribes who had to follow a nomadic life style because they occupied the desert areas, but who also eventually started to found kingdoms of their own, such as Nabataean Petra in the 4th Century BCE or Iturea in the 2nd Century BCE. Of course, in terms of Jewish and Islamic tradition, both groups see each other as descended from Abraham, and, regardless of the literal truth of that claim, the ancestral origins of the ancient Jews and Arabs are clearly basically the same. Modern genetic analysis bears out “a remarkable degree of genetic continuity in both Jews and Arabs” (REF 1).

Meanwhile, Diaspora Jews sometimes intermarried with the populations living in the places to which they moved. This could cause issues, such as the notorious mutual intolerance between Sephardi and Cochin Jews in Kerala. Sephardi were the Jews who lived in the region ruled by the various Islamic Caliphates, from Iberia in the north-west, through North Africa, to the Middle East itself, though these days Middle Eastern Jews often adopt a separate identity, such as Mizrahi. There was a further Diaspora of Sephardi people following the completion of the “Reconquest” Iberia by the Christians and the subsequent instigation of the Spanish Inquisition . Sephardi fled first to Portugal, and then, in 1536, when the Inquisition was introduced there too, to North Africa, but also to outposts of the Portuguese Empire, and other places in Europe, especially Holland, where the Dutch Republic had declared freedom of conscience. Kerala, in south east India, was one such Portuguese outpost, but, in the 17th century, also became a prime destination for the Dutch East India Company, with which many of the Sephardi, who had sought refuge in Holland, also became involved. The result was Sephardi movement into Kerala, where they encountered an already existent Jewish population, the Cochin Jews, who had settled there much earlier, most likely in Roman times. Having been dispersed into different regions for so long the Sephardi were intermixed with other groups, especially Iberians and other southern Europeans, while the Cochin were also extensively Keralite (specifically “Malayali”: the label given to the main ethnic grouping in Kerala). Tragically, whatever joy was felt by some at re-uniting long scattered brethren was soon replaced by xenophobia, followed by a bitter dispute over who was more “authentically Jewish”, the White Jews or the Black Jews, that went on for centuries. (REF 2).

Therefore, “Arabic” Palestinians started off with the same origins as Jews and continued to mix with Middle Eastern Jews even after the conquest of the Levant by Islam and its incorporation into Arab caliphates. Indeed, many “Arabic” Palestinians are descended from “Jewish” Palestinians who converted to Islam, so it isn’t just a question of inter-mixing, but also of members of one group actually becoming members of the “other” group. Genetic studies have found that “The closest genetic neighbours to most Jewish groups were the Palestinians, Israeli Bedouins, and Druze in addition to the Southern Europeans, including Cypriots” (REF 3). Basically, the Palestinians are a population with mixed ancestry, deriving roughly (and possibly mainly) both from Jews who stayed or migrated back to the Levant from the Diaspora and from Arabs who migrated to the area from the Byzantine era onwards. Some of the founders of Israel were proponents of the Jewish ancestry of the Palestinians. The first president of Israel, Yitzhak Ben-Zvi as well as former Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion, wrote several books and articles on the subject (REF 4).

The upshot all of this is that both Jews and Palestinians are descended in part from 1st Century Hebrews, and both populations have clear genetic links to the Middle East. Nevertheless, if we compared randomly chosen Palestinians and Israelis, and were really able to draw up their family trees all the way back to the 1st Century, Hebrews would most likely repeatedly occupy the slots in the 1st Century line of Palestinian family trees more often than in the same line in the family trees of Israelis.

In turn, this means that the Zionist argument of a Jewish right of return to the land of Israel based on ancestry is nonsensical: anyone with West Asian, North African or European ancestry is descended in part from ancient Hebrews, the Jews more than most others but the Palestinians usually more so than most Jews. It is also, by definition, unreasonable to assert a right of return based on faith, as an article of faith is, also by definition, not based on reason. Someone might claim that God had granted a land to themselves and their descendants, but anyone else could equally claim an entirely contrary divine revelation, and there is no rational way for non-believers to choose between either of those articles of faith.

This leaves one viable argument for Zionism. Given the state-sanctioned, and often state-assisted, persecutions to which the Jewish people have been repeatedly subjected, especially but not entirely in Christian Europe, including the Inquisitions, the Pogroms and, most horrifically of all, the Holocaust, it is perfectly reasonable for Jews to seek the protection of a state power of their own, in other words to control as a people their own state which would have, as per Max Weber’s definition of the word “state”, a monopoly over the use of violence within a certain territory. The repeated mass murder and torture of Jews implies that only this would really allow them a home where they could live safely. That means it is desirable to grant anyone who identifies as Jewish, or could be likely to be labelled as Jewish by anyone who might use that as a pretext to do them harm, the possible sanctuary of a state of their own. Another irony here, at a time of cheap and widely available genetic testing, is that the group of people so defined would now be likely to also include most Palestinians.

That argument is credible. However, “n” wrongs do not ever sum to a right. If Palestine was really a “land without a people, for a people without a land” all would have been fine, but it was not: the land was already the home of the Diaspora Jews’ cousins, and expulsion of those people, who up until then had generally lived peacefully with Jews and had not been the cause of their persecutions, was not morally justified. The situation was further exacerbated when the Arab states responded to the expulsion of the Palestinians, the “Nakba” by expelling their own Jewish populations, who were then encouraged to migrate to Israel, creating the tragically ironic situation where the resentment of the Palestinians is now often most extreme amongst Sephardi and Mizrahi Jews, as compared to the rest of the Israeli population, even though those are the very Jewish groups most closely related to the Palestinians.

Now a new state of Israel exists, and a way must be found to allow the Jews to retain a homeland while also addressing the plight of the displaced Palestinians, through some combination of restoration of lands, rights and compensation, whether that is a Two State solution, or a single State solution with strong and equal protections for all, or some federal system combining both approaches. That is a complex issue not only requiring the advice of experts but also extensive consultation amongst the Israelis and the Palestinians, the people most affected.

Ancestry, as we have seen, is nearly inextricably complex and inter-mingled, and identities are fluid, usually a matter of habit, often one of convenience. Of course, any of us who believe in any vaguely Golden Rule style morality, religious or secular, are obliged to try to treat each other with kindness, or at least not be wilfully selfish. Identity shouldn’t matter. It shouldn’t matter whether others are of “our” group or not: our moral obligations extend to at least anyone who, given the chance, could return the favour. Such moral obligations could even extend to non-human entities. Nevertheless, feelings of identity are significant. Crimes against humanity are typically preceded with dehumanising the “other”. Therefore, remembering what we have in common is important.

At the time of writing, what the International Criminal Court has deemed the “plausible genocide” in Gaza is continuing to unfold. Over 32 000 Gazans have been killed as a result of direct Israeli actions: tens of thousands more will be dead under the rubble or have perished from indirect effects. At least 12 000 children have been killed: higher than the number killed globally in all conflicts from 2019 to 2022 inclusive. There is a terrible irony in that too, given that the Judaism’s strongest appeal at the time of its foundation is likely to have been opposition to child sacrifice. Right now, the remaining population of Gaza seems to be facing devastating famine and the prospect of a final brutal Israeli land onslaught with nowhere liveable left to flee. This has to stop. It has to stop now. It has to stop because, as written in the famous poem adapted from the work of the Persian poet Hafiz, it really is true that “there is just one flesh to wound”. (REF 5).

Salaam/Shalom

Notes and Sources

REF 1:

The Y Chromosome Pool of Jews as Part of the Genetic Landscape of the Middle East

REF 2:

(See https://www.jstor.org/stable/25211536 or https://www.keralatourism.org/judaism/jewish-settlers/white-black-jews )

REF 3:

The population genetics of the Jewish people

REF 4:

https://www.shavei.org/blog/2016/06/05/palestinians-jewish-roots/

REF 5:

https://www.reckonings.net/reckonings/2018/11/i-have-come-into-this-world-to-see-this.html

Stop the Quantitative Tightening Scam

From November 2022 until January 2024 the United Kingdom borrowed £118 billion, not to invest it in any way, but simply to “remove it from circulation” or, in simpler words, destroy it, cancel it out of existence.

£118 billion is a huge sum of money. Just think what else we could have done with that vast amount if we hadn’t just cancelled it out. £118 billion is Labour’s £28 billion green spending pledge restored. You can add in the whole of the government’s now scrapped Health and Social Care levy, which was meant to fix the NHS and social care by investing £36 billion from 2021 to 2024. It’s the extra £7 billion that Tom Tugendhat wants us to spend each year on defence, now that we are in an active confrontation with Putin’s Russia. That still leaves tens of billions for building new council houses. Possibly we could even fill in some pot-holes….

Moreover, the £118 billion is just the start. The Bank of England plans on borrowing a further £737 billion over roughly the next seven or eight years, just to cancel it out of existence.

Those sums are so large that those amounts don’t even seem real. Unfortunately those hundreds of billions are very real indeed. Why, at a time of multiple, interlocking crises, is the UK doing such an apparently crazy thing?

This is all about destroying the money created by Quantitative Easing (QE) to deal with first the 2008 Financial Crash, and then the pandemic (plus a bit more for Brexit). That further begs the question of why the UK feels the need to cancel out that QE created money in the first place. The justifications for all this have varied over time, but the latest, as at February 2024, are given in this report by the Treasure Select Committee: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5804/cmselect/cmtreasy/219/report.html.

Unfortunately, given the extreme importance of this issue, that report is full of holes, copiously uses technical jargon and euphemisms in a way that looks as if it is at least unconsciously intended to deceive, and has been produced essentially by two institutions, the Conservative dominated Treasure Select Committee, and financial industry influenced Bank of England, whose motivations have to be called into serious question.

Firstly, we may think that the main rationale for borrowing money, for cancelling hundreds of billion of pounds out of existence, is to fight inflation. That is not, however, the case: the Bank of England regards its setting of interest rates as its main weapon against inflation, and sees the likely affects of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on inflation as being both difficult to quantify and most likely not significant. In August 2023, reviewing QT to date, the Bank of England said this: “the impact on activity and inflation is also likely to have been small” .

Instead, the primary justification for QT, as stated in the Treasury Select Committee’s report, now seems to be “in order to create space for future interventions,” in other words for a future resumption of QE.

This claim is so disingenuous it would best be described as preposterous. Now money is just a claim on resources, not actual resources, so governments (at least those with what are called “fiat” currencies) can genuinely conjure it into being at will, and then force people to accept it as payment by mandating that money as “legal tender”. However, there is one obvious constraint on a government’s ability to create money: inflation. Adding to a money supply, without increasing the resources that money can be used to buy, reduces the purchasing power of each unit of money.

The reason why the UK was able to create £875 billion of additional money, and then use that money primarily to address the effects of the Financial Crisis, including saving our banking industry, and then dealing with COVID, was because those periods were deflationary. The potentially inflationary effects of Quantitative Easing were largely offset by prices that would otherwise have been falling. That indeed was one of the main points of QE in the first place, as, however, unpleasant inflation feels, economists are actually more scared of deflation. In a situation where prices are generally falling, people will tend not to buy today what they anticipate being able to buy more cheaply tomorrow, and the whole economy can stall and spin downwards into a “deflationary spiral”.

Our reality now, and for the foreseeable future, is, however, obviously inflationary, due to a sequence of supply shocks, most lately the disruption to shipping, arising from the Gaza crisis, affecting the route through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, and climate change induced droughts reducing the water available to operate the locks in the Panama Canal. With the ongoing and intensifying climate emergency those supply side pressures are, of course, likely to continue.

There will be no prospect of sustained “future interventions”, in other words more QE to reverse the public funds destroyed by QT, unless inflation is likely to fall significantly below the Bank of England’s inflation target of 2%. To pretend otherwise is absurd and very deceiving. Moreover, if we were to actually find ourselves in another deflationary situation, no one would care how much QE you had done in the past: all they would want is for the Bank of England to quickly create new money to stop the deflation. The implied assumption that there is a finite limit on QE, that applies across all time, is nonsensical. The whole argument that we are doing QT to allow more QE to be done in future is insultingly absurd.

The £118 billion destroyed so far is gone. Once the whole £875 billion is wiped out it will also be gone. There will be no reversing those increases to the real public sector debt burden any time soon. Also, as we saw in October 2022, it isn’t easy for governments to borrow another odd hundred billion, to say address the multiple crises we now face, to compensate for the hundred odd billion borrowed so far just to cancel it out, without causing other financial instabilities, such as driving up interest rates or trashing the value of government debts already held by institutions, such as pension funds, potentially making them bankrupt. Just as government money creation is constrained by inflation, government borrowing is constrained by the risk of destroying the value of government debt already held by institutions that have, for example, invested workers’ life savings into purchasing that debt, and making government’s future borrowing, and indeed everyone’s borrowings, much more expensive.

That in itself is another of the huge issues with the Treasury Committee’s report. Though it talks at some length about the losses to the public purse being caused by QT (mainly down to the fact that QE bought UK government debts, i.e. “gilts” in the jargon, at prices above that at which those gilts are now being sold back to markets, under QT) it never even mentions how borrowing money, just to cancel it out, will make it much more difficult for governments to borrow money to invest our way out of all our current difficulties.

QT is essentially the cause of our new rounds of austerity, and that fact needs to be stared fully in the face. Also, if we accept that public investment will be needed to facilitate sustainable economic growth, it condemns us to continuing stagnation, so any talk about growing our way out of our problems is, again, total nonsense.

It is also important to understand how the UK did QE, as otherwise we can’t grasp that, at a time we are repeatedly being told that there is no money for public spending, we really are borrowing hundreds of billions just to cancel that money out. Even though governments create money, “direct financing”, meaning just creating that new money and spending it, is seriously frowned upon among central bankers: indeed it is actually illegal for members of the EU. The new QE created money was therefore used to buy back government debts (gilts), but those debts were not cancelled out: instead they were held at the Bank of England. The plan was to eventually reverse the QE either when the debts matured, or by later selling the debts back to the markets: those methods of reversing QE are called “passive” and “active” QT receptively. Now passive QT involves having to pay off the capital of a government debt, now effectively held by government itself though the Bank of England, which is done by reborrowing the money and then cancelling the money so received out of existence. Active QT is similar: it involves “selling” the debts back to the “secondary markets”, in other words reborrowing the money again, and then again cancelling the money received out of existence.

This is yet another failing in the report. Nowhere does it state that QT involves borrowing money just to cancel it out: instead we get all those euphemisms. Reborrowing the £875 billion becomes “selling the Bank’s stock of QE gilts in the secondary market”. Cancelling money out of existence, becomes the much “softer” “removes from circulation”. This is very dangerous, as even the report itself says this: “Given the uncertainty over its effects, the Bank should also update Parliament and the public on QT”. How engaged, so you feel, dear reader, by the Report’s jargon? Were you even aware of this issue and it’s implications? Of the real reason for our never-ending austerity? When did you last hear this discussed on the news? Alternatively, does the way this topic is being covered when it is even discussed, and how it is so little discussed at all, make you feel as if you may be being “gas-lit”?

Also, when QE was started, there was no anticipation of the huge sums that would eventually be involved. It was intended just as another intervention to keep money flowing once there was no capacity to reduce interest rates below zero. Instead it evolved into almost a trillion being created, with, at times, government debts being bought back as soon as they were issued. Rather, this was direct financing in all but name, and it worked: it allowed us to survive a decade of crises. Now, however, the plan is to turn all that created money into real public debt. That will cripple us for generations: remember that, infamously, it wasn’t until 2015 that we finally paid off the debt incurred through the compensation we paid to slave owners for emancipating their slaves.

There is an alternative to QT. As Ford Prefect famously challenged the Vogon guard in “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy”, just before said guard threw him out of an airlock, we could just “stop doing it, of course”. The immediate way to do that is to simply “roll-over” government debts owned by the Bank of England when they mature: in other words, when a Bank of England owned government debt matures, and more money must be borrowed to repay the capital of the debt, immediately buy back the new debt with more QE: this leaves the accounting position exactly as it was before the debt matured and therefore means no net additional QE or QT. Active QT can be stopped simply by ceasing sales of the debts back to the markets. A more permanent plan is one outlined by Thomas Piketty, and more than a hundred economists, politicians and campaigners from across Europe, as part of a similar conversation they had with the European Central Bank (https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/opinion/cancel-the-public-debt-held-by-the-ecb-and-take-back-control-of-our-destiny): that is to convert the government debts still owned by the Bank of England into a zero interest never-maturing debt, which avoids destroying money while leaving the Bank’s balance sheet still perfectly healthy, according to current international central banking accounting conventions.

To finally accurately record the fact that this “debt” is in no way owed by the UK public sector to anyone else, we should remove the value of this Bank of England owned public sector debt from all measures of that debt, better reflecting the UK public sector’s actual credit worthiness.

Whichever of those approaches we take would still leave us with the issue of the “reserves” the commercial banks hold at the Bank of England. Basically all the QE created money ended up in those reserve accounts, and, from 2006 on, the Bank of England has been paying interest on all that money to the commercial banks, who have therefore repaid being saved by QE in the first place by being allowed to make hearty excess profits. The way to solve that one is to reduce those payments by tiering the interest rates paid on those accounts, as is already done by European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan (and the way the Treasury Committee Report discusses such a possible tiering of interest rates is so outrageous it implies influence from the banking industry so intensive that it amounts to a conflict of interest serious enough to be considered misconduct in public office).

Why, then, are the Bank of England and the Treasury Committee doing QT at all? Part of it is group-think, this is just the “done thing”, even though, as the report itself acknowledges QT, and especially active QT, is “ innovative for all central banks”. To an extent, they are trapped by their own jargon (and here it should be noted that even the current Labour Shadow Chancellor worked at the Bank of England and HBOS). Nevertheless, it is also wise to take account of the individuals involved here, their associations and the interests they really represent. There is something of a revolving door between the Bank of England and the UK and US banking industry, and the Treasury Select Committee is dominated by Tories, who hold the chair and six out of the eleven committee posts. If you want a “smaller state” so that you can cut the “needy” adrift, and there is more role for your businesses to make profits, then QT is one way to bake in eternally brutal cuts to public spending. Perhaps we are back to Vogons (“not actually evil, but bad-tempered, bureaucratic, officious and callous” ). Then again, given the hundreds of thousands of British citizens now estimated to have died prematurely due to austerity (see:
“www.dannydorling.org/Austerity led to twice as many excess UK deaths as previously thought – here’s what that means for future cuts”
) perhaps we should mix our metaphors and say “Daleks” instead.

Reading between the lines of the Report, even the current Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, seems to be attempting to distance himself from QT: “QT is a tool that is exercised independently as part of its array of tools on monetary policy. It is therefore not appropriate for me to comment on that, just as I would not comment on whether it is right or wrong to raise or lower interest rates.” In other words Mr Hunt is hiding behind Bank of England independence to side-step the whole issue of Quantitative Tightening, as if a government controlling our sovereign Parliament could not redefine the rules for the Bank of England at will. Given the significance of QT, this position is the mother of all cop-outs.

In summary, and with apologies for bluntness, let’s just accept the fact that, through QE, we created some money. So what: live with it. Unless, in fact, we do live with it then, in a state when we are facing multiple crises, such as the climate emergency, collapsing public services, the threat from Russia and the prospects of a Trump presidency, there is a real risk we won’t be able to live at all. We want our futures back. We need to stop QT now, or we are doomed. With £100 billion now being actively destroyed each year, the clock is ticking.

Notes:

1) For further blogs on this topic see:

which discusses the international context and:

which explores the UK situation in more detail.

2) The £118 billion of borrowing so far, which was then just cancelled out of existence, was derived as follows.

The source data is in this paragraph in the Report:

”The Bank is still in the relatively early stages of QT. As of 31 January 2024, the Bank’s stock of gilt purchases, as measured by the price at which they were bought, stood at £738 billion, down from £875 billion at the onset of QT (of the £20 billion in corporate bonds purchased at the onset, less than £1 billion remained). In September 2023, the MPC decided to undertake an additional £100 billion of QT over October 2023 to September 2024 (with passive and active QT accounting for around £50 billion each), which will bring the purchases of gilts down to around £650 billion.”

3) Here again is the “House of Commons Treasury Committee Quantitative Tightening Fifth Report of Session 2023–24” : https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5804/cmselect/cmtreasy/219/report.html

Enjoy.

Are we all bound for Gaza?

What is happening in Gaza is an absolute abomination in its own right. But do these horrific events have an even wider significance? As well as being the latest and most terrible episode in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a second Nakba, is it also the first slaughter of the “Disenlightenment”? If so, are we all bound for Gaza?

The “Disenlightenment” is the end of the progressive project that started with the Enlightenment, of serious and sustained attempts to create societies that serve the many and not just the ruling class. The “Disenlightenment” is concomitant with a re-convergence of economic and political power. Power again concentrating in the hands of the few is partly a consequence of globalisation, partly a return to far older and darker norms after a long period when established power structures were disrupted (see “Rage, rage against the dying of the light” ), and is itself both a result of and a cause of spiralling inequality. That underlying trend towards inequality was further exacerbated by the Financial Crash and COVID. Another essential aspect of the Disenlightenment is a consolidation of elite power so as to best secure their position in the face of rapidly developing crises that are, ironically, substantially of their own creation, especially climate change.

Turning societies back to only serving the ruling class is never likely to attract the sustained support of the masses. The Disenlightenment therefore requires a rolling back of democracy, with members of the elites cynically exploiting the anger their very policies have caused to trigger right wing “pluto-populist” fake “revolts” that promote authoritarianism. Such developments are also consistent with the increasing incompatibility of capitalism with democracy, as “polycrisis” causes economic growth to falter: for, as the economy drifts towards a “zero sum game”, the only way the rich can carry on competing with each other for wealth and power is to take from others, which in practice broadly means “us” (see “Deep, dark under-currents at the bottom of the gravity well” ).

Now the Gaza situation clearly fits within the ongoing tragedy of the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, and that must not be down-played, but it also has aspects that portend of things to come, which also allow the horrors in Gaza to potentially be characterised as the first slaughter of the Disenlightenment. Those are three-fold:

  • Firstly, the slaughter is being executed by a right wing “pluto-populist” regime (FT: “The age of the elected despot is here”) with definite authoritarian intentions, of a kind that typifies the Disenlightenment. With its vision for a future for Israel that amounts to ethnic cleansing, in the West Bank as well as Gaza, it is unlikely that the actions of the Israeli government would be so cruel, and the death toll so high, if that was not the case.
  • Then there is the pronounced asymmetry of the current conflict, which arises from a massive difference in economic power and therefore in military capability. The Gazans are being destroyed by some of the most expensive and advanced technology currently available, including, most notoriously, AI ( “A mass assassination factory” ). The Israeli government is also being bankrolled by rich allies and associates across the world, reflecting another aspect of the Disenlightenment, that the economic power of our current elites is massively boosted by being networked globally and able to operate at a transnational scale (“Lowkey exposes British role in Israel-Gaza war” ).
  • Finally, and most tellingly, there is the way this is the slaughter of an indigenous population, that has first been dispossessed, ghettoised, “othered” and now exterminated. This is not a war fought in distant lands, but at home. What is happening in Gaza echoes settler-colonial projects down the ages, such as the European destruction of Native Americans. Nevertheless, it could also foreshadow class conflicts to come, as authoritarian regimes, serving the globalised ruling class, clamp down on impoverished masses who now, replaced with AI driven automation, have no point even as a “working class” and instead come to be seen, not just as a drain on resources, but as a serious threat, to ultimately be neutralised by any means necessary.

A counter-argument would be that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is based around ethnicity not class. However, class is all about families seeking to retain their economic advantages, and by extension the disadvantages of others, across generations. Class structures often start with ethnic divides: where one population takes over another. Over time, the populations merge, especially as the surplus descendants of the ruling class descend, over a generation or two, into the masses. The class structures, however, often endure.

It is possible to see an embryonic class structure in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as evidenced by the Israeli finance minister’s, Bezalel Smotrich’s, notorious “Tipping Plan” ( “Tipping of the Scales Plan”” ), which would condemn Palestinians to a form of subjugation where they would not even be able to vote in the Israeli Knesset, and does not address the issue of compensation for the violent seizure of their ancestral homes and lands at all. Under this plan Palestinians either have to accept ethnic cleaning or their lot as a landless, subordinate class wide open for exploitation, further accelerating the existing “long-standing tendency of the Occupied Palestinian Territory to serve as a reservoir of cheap labour for the economy of Israel” (UN: “Developments in the economy of the Occupied Palestinian Territory” ).

Perceived differences of ethnicity make it easier to brutalise the “other”. Therefore, as we move ever further into the Disenlightenment, with tensions steadily rising, the first slaughters of the Disenlightenment will occur between classes where ethnic differences are still regarded by both groups as significant. What is happening in Gaza, and at a slower rate on the West Bank, can therefore genuinely be interpreted as an early warning: as a harbinger of the directly violent class war (as contrasted with the merely indirectly violent class war that equates to deprivation of proper healthcare, housing or even food) that will characterise the Disenlightenment, as it is precisely in such contexts that the first slaughters will occur. Basically, as a growing divide in life prospects, and even chances for survival, seeds resentment, while the coercive powers accessible to the richest increase and the regimes they back become more authoritarian, all developments associated with the Disenlightenment, then mass inter-class violence will intensify, with such conflicts erupting first within societies where tensions are already highest.

Our globalised ruling class, or at least broad sections of our elites, are really not our friends: rather they conceal a steely ruthlessness, sometimes even from themselves, with a layer of cultured gentility. We have seen their reluctance to act on climate change, despite themselves being the most major contributors to the problem (“Climate Equality: A planet for the 99%” ); to hold onto their patent rights during a pandemic, costing hundreds of thousands of lives in 2021 alone, even though the patents were based on research that was mainly funded by governments and the charitable sector (“Intellectual Property and “The Lost Year” of COVID-19 Deaths” ); to collude, in many developed nations, with central banks, to wipe out trillions in public funds, there-by maintaining austerity and crippling climate action, while continually burying the fact that governments can create money to save banks, but when it comes to saving humanity, are not allowed to even permit that extra money to remain in existence ( “Don’t Destroy Trillions” ). In the case of the Gaza horror we have seen the establishments in the USA, the UK and the EU complicit with ethnic cleansing and potential genocide, with money, arms, intelligence sharing and even deployment of forces intended to “hold the ring” and prevent any counter-intervention by other powers.

Seen in this light Gaza is indeed the first slaughter of the Disenlightenment. We are already the dispossessed: most of the world’s population was deprived so long ago, of even a space where they could live freely, by a variety of conquests, expulsions, persecutions, impoverishments, disinheritances, enclosures and clearances, that ultimately many have forgotten that those events even happened. Gaza is a foreshadowing of a time when you or your long dispossessed family’s descendants, starving in a heavily surveilled and walled-in ghetto, provoked into such acts of evil that you can be condemned as “human animals”, are then systematically exterminated by the machines of the ruling classes, who are dripping with conceit and ruthless in their smug conviction that it is they who are the true defenders of “civilisation”.

Demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and justice for the Palestinians, meaning a two state solution or a democratic one state solution where all have equal rights and protections, and that the Palestinians receive restorations and reparations to undo the effects of their dispossession. No compensation can ever dry-up the trail of tears endured by many on all sides of this conflict, but, by restoring their economic independence, reparations would allow the Palestinians to better protect themselves from the continuing depredations of others.

We must stand with the oppressed, or “Gaza” lurks in wait in all our futures.