Image: Torsten Bolten
In this issue:
NFL MVP Chase
The End of an Era
NFL MVP Chase update
The MVP Chase looks at how well players played in each victory, not at their overall season stats. That's why Drake Maye has been largely absent from my top ten each week. He usually takes one or two more sacks than other quarterbacks, even in wins, and often doesn't generate enough first downs. My scoring system caps out at 1.5 MVP Points per game, so Maye won't win the MVP Chase title. No quarterback can this season.
Maye still has a chance to lead all quarterbacks, depending on how they play in the last game of the season. And I wouldn't be surprised if he's already won the MVP in the eyes of the voters. The Patriots are guaranteed to be at least a #2 seed, and a quarterback from a top-2 seed has won the MVP for 12 consecutive years (see here for evidence through 2023; in 2024, Josh Allen of the #2-seed Bills won it).
Although Bo Nix is higher on my list and his Broncos will be another Top-2 seed, his stats aren't impressive enough (except in the way I count them) to be considered for MVP. Of the NFC's top two teams, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy hasn't played enough games, and while the conventional stats of Sam Darnold are good, they're not as good as Maye's.
The Golden Age of the Second-Round Quarterback
Geno Smith's disastrous season with the Raiders (30th in Passer Rating, 2-13 win-loss record) will end his career as a starting NFL quarterback. I remembered he was drafted in the second round of the 2013 draft, and I thought that, all in all, he probably had a good career compared to most other second-rounders.
I decided to find out, going back to the 2004 draft (contemporaries of the NFL's oldest quarterback, Philip Rivers).
From 2004 through 2010, eight quarterbacks were selected in the second round. Five players started more than 16 games over their careers. One, Tarvaris Jackson, started a playoff game. His regular season record was 17-17. Chad Henne played the most of the group, going 18-36. Drew Stanton has a gaudy 11-6 record as a starter, filling in for the oft-injured Carson Palmer on the good Bruce Arians Cardinals teams of the 2010s.
But then we find a Golden Age of 2nd-round quarterbacks:
Andy Dalton (2011) began his career leading the Bengals to five consecutive playoff appearances, though the Bengals went winless in all of them. 84-83-2 as a starter and a 3-time Pro Bowler. Now a backup in Carolina.
Colin Kaepernick (2011) nearly led the 49ers to a Super Bowl win in the 2012 season. 4-2 in the playoffs; his regular-season record fell to 28-30 overall as the 49ers organization became dysfunctional. Career ended prematurely due to politics.
Brock Osweiler (2012) 15-15 as a starter, and even won a playoff game.
2013 Geno Smith (2013) had early career struggles and then barely played for several years before enjoying three winning seasons as the Seahawks starter 2022-24, including a playoff appearance and two Pro Bowls.
Derek Carr (2014) went to four Pro Bowls with the Raiders and, in 2016, was an MVP favorite with a 12-3 record before an injury ended the season. Went 14-13 with the Saints over two seasons before retiring.
Jimmy Garoppolo (2014) was 43-21 as a starter, with a 4-2 playoff record and a near-Super Bowl win. Often injured, he started more than ten games in a season only twice.
No Hall of Famer in the group, but 2011-2014 was a "golden age" of second-round quarterbacks because, except Osweiler, they were all good for at least a few years. 2025 is likely the last time we will see any of them become regular starters in the NFL again.
Since 2014, seven qbs have been taken in the second round. Jalen Hurts (2020) is 57-25 regular season, 6-3 in the playoffs, including a Super Bowl MVP, and is a 2-time Pro Bowler.
Drew Lock is second among this group in wins. He has a 10-18 record. Tyler Shough (2025) is tied for third with a 5-3 record (Will Levis is 5-17).
Hurts is clearly the most successful, and Shough has a promising start to his career. But the rarity of great or even pretty good 2nd-round quarterbacks (excepting the 2011-14 classes) suggests that it's wiser to pick a quarterback in the first round if you're shaky at the position. If you're solid at the position, wait until the later rounds to select someone to develop.
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Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.
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