Is Jon Lester a Hall of Famer?

 Is Jon Lester a Hall of Famer? As much as I love Jon Lester - I would have to say NO.

In his 16-year MLB career he had 200 wins, 2,488 K's, and a 3.66 ERA (117 ERA+). That's good but not Hall of Fame good. He also made over $198 million in his career so don't feel too badly about Jon not getting into Cooperstown.

People are making the argument for Lester because of his postseason heroics. He was a stud on three World Series Championship teams (two in Boston and one in Chicago). He was a cancer survivor and all-around good guy. Hard not to root for him.

I love Jon Lester and the way the Red Sox treated him as they parted ways was when I started to get disenchanted with the organization. If the organization didn't lowball Lester (initial offer of $70 million 4-years when he ended up signing for $155 million over six) and had offered him a fair deal he'd have never left Boston. But in 2014 owner John Henry didn't want to invest long term in a 31-year old pitcher.

He pitched another 7 seasons after leaving Boston and now people are making arguments about if he's a Hall of Famer. If he does get in - I hope he wears a Cubs hat.

Flotsam and Jetsam

 Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Whatever happened with all those lawsuits against Saudi Arabia for their 9/11 culpability?... Well the Most Interesting Man in the World did tell us he didn't always drink beer... My favorite conspiracy theory is that making cookies is just a front for the Keebler Elves sports bookmaking operation... "It is often said that before you die your life passes before your eyes. It is in fact true. It's called living." - Terry Pratchett... Was going to do a post about whether Jon Lester is a Hall of Famer but the simple answer is "No." He's beloved in both Boston and Chicago and has 3 World Series rings but with just 192 wins and a career ERA of 3.59 that just doesn't cut it. What really props up Lester is his great personality, being a cancer survivor, and the fact he went 4-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 5 career World Series starts. The bigger the game the better Lester seemed to pitch. Would not be surprised if he retired or maybe signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox for next season... With the cancel mob gunning for JK Rowling for her new book about a cross-dressing killer - I wonder how long it will be before that mob comes after the 1980 movie Dressed to Kill? Because the plot (spoiler alert) is basically the same... 

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Earlier this week I listened to the Joe Rogan podcast with guest former CIA Operative Mike Baker. This is the episode where Joe's "endorsement" of Bernie Sanders occurred. The problem is if you listen to the episode Joe clearly said his first choice as a candidate was Tulsi Gabbard... Whoever runs the Wendy's Twitter page should get a raise... Joe Rogan also admits that in 2016 he voted for Gary Johnson (full disclosure so did I). How did Joe's "endorsement" work for Gary Johnson? Thinking the Bernie "endorsement" probably will have the same impact mostly because Joe Rogan's audience is mainly made up of people who think for themselves...  50 years of failed "eco-pocalyptic" predictions. I keep thinking "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me." What's the saying for fool me 50 times?...  This took me a second... Jon Lester has averaged a 15-8 record in Chicago since being traded away from the Red Sox. Forcing Jon Lester out was when the current ownership started appearing unlikable to many Boston fans....  Oh an Jon Lester has a great sense of humor...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Any beer (craft or otherwise) that uses the word "mouthfeel" to describe its product is dead to me. I can't even believe mouthfeel is a real word... "Holy shit!" is right!... "Friendship is born at the moment when one person says to another: 'What? You too? I thought I was the only one.'" C.S. Lewis... Very cool photo... Am I the only one who is disappointed that Abe Vigoda failed to rise from the dead?... I went to years of Catholic school and was never told that Saint Peter - the rock on which Jesus built his church - the first Pope - was married... Another cool (and scary) photo... Since being traded by the Red Sox Jon Lester has gone 61-34 - just saying...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Am I the only one who misses the Beef O'Brady Bowl? I just loved saying and mocking that name... The photo makes me smile (because in my head I see a thought bubble above both of them saying "This place is a dump!")... This is a major argument for the success of Bitcoin... In Roman times corrupt public officials were thrown into the River Tiber with a sack of rats tied over their faces. Now they just buy Georgetown townhouses... The new Defense Budget includes $350 million in military support for the Ukraine in their war against Russia. You would think this would be more widely reported and applauded... I still miss Jon Lester. I still root for Jon Lester. Both of those things are true of most Red Sox fans... When the robot rebellion begins this will be programmed into the memory of all the robots. There's no artificial intelligence in the universe that can grasp that smearing things with feces just happens to be a San Francisco tradition...

Is Jon Lester a HoF Player?

Joel Sherman raises the question of whether Jon Lester is a Hall of Fame player. I hadn't really thought about it before but the answer is NO. At least not now.

Jon Lester would need at least 5 more seasons averaging 15 or more wins, 200 strike outs and an ERA of about 3.00. That would give Lester about 221 wins and about 2,861 strikeouts. That's still borderline but that's what's really needed to put Lester into the conversation.

I love Jon Lester but we are talking about a guy who's top finish in Cy Young voting was 4th in 2010 and 2014.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

An interesting "what if"? In 2007 the Red Sox considered trading Jon Lester to the White Sox for Mark Buehrle. If Boston signed Buehrle long-term would they have won the World Series in either 2007 or 2013? Could they have won more?... If you think about it - shoplifting food is both hunting and gathering... Our incredible solar system 1 - view of Venus transiting in front of the Sun... Jon Lester since 2007 has been 109-70 while Mark Buehrle has gone 99-71... Bill Lear, founder of the Lear Jet Corp., named his daughter Shanda. Yup - Shanda Lear... Our incredible solar system 2 - view of Saturn eclipsing the Sun... If MSNBC ran re-runs of Seinfeld it would be their highest rated show by a wide margin... I have grey hair and self-identify as a wizard. Call me Gandalf... Since 2007 Jon Lester has made roughly $63 million while Mark Buehrle has made about $110 million. I guess the "what if" wasn't as interesting as I originally thought.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

If I was Dana White I'd have the UFC make a $100 million offer to Floyd Mayweather to fight Ronda Rousey in the octagon. I bet more people would pay to watch that than Saturday's fight. Of course Mayweather wouldn't take the deal but then the UFC could claim that Mayweather is afraid of women who fight back. It would be another nail in the coffin for boxing and great publicity for the UFC... Reconsidering The Wire amidst the violence in Baltimore... Who knew? The reason dealers at casinos clap their hands when leaving the table is to show the "eye in the sky" that they aren't taking any chips away from the table cupped in their hands... Heh heh - Don Pardo's old business card... The Mayan calendar was so exact it was only off one day every 6,000 years... I wonder if Cubs fans are starting to feel about Jon Lester the way some older Red Sox fans felt about Mike Torrez...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

The number 1 overriding reason Boston should not get the Olympics is Logan Airport - the worst major airport in the United States... The Daytona 500 is one of the last major sporting events to use trough urinals. The Masters is the only other one I can think of... Have you seen the "octopus jumps out of the water to eat a crab" video? I know octopus are badass. What I'm curious about is that video has close to 6 million views on YouTube - did the woman who took the video make any money from posting it?... 20 things you might not know about the Miracle on Ice... If President Obama says ISIS is not Islamic shouldn't we just call them SIS?... Heh heh - I would prefer my cause of death be motorboated by Wonder Woman... Non-roster invitee Dana Eveland was given Jon Lester's old number 31...

It Wasn't Personal - It Was Business

So Jon Lester has signed with the Chicago Cubs for $155 million over 6-years. I agree with Rob Bradford that the reason this happened was simply because Boston didn't want him as much privately as they publicly claimed. An extra $20 million and a vesting seventh year was the difference. That difference would mean NOTHING to ownership if they really wanted Lester back.

Simply put - the team didn't want to sign a 31-year old pitcher to a long-term deal. But publicly they had to make it look like they did.

I like Jon Lester and will continue to root for him but what is becoming increasingly clear to me is what I really root for is laundry. Whoever is wearing the Red Sox uniform is the guy I cheer for (unless that guy is dickhead AJ Pierzynski).

Many people will place the blame for losing Jon Lester on Larry Lucchino and to a certain degree they would be right. I would guess that the low-ball $70 million over 4-years offer the team made to Lester in the Spring had Larry's fingerprints all over it. Larry is also the guy to blame for ownership thinking Bobby Valentine was a competent manager. Balancing the negatives, however, are the undeniable positives of three World Series Championships in the last decade and the fact that Lucchino was the man mainly responsible for turning Fenway Park from what was becoming a urine soaked rathole into a great (albeit expensive) place to experience an MLB game.

The real blame for losing Lester rests with principal owner John Henry. Simply put - he didn't want to sign a 31-year old pitcher to a long term deal. If he really wanted Lester back - then the extra $3 million a year (the cost for a below average veteran back-up outfielder) would have been no obstacle.

So now the Red Sox have a pretty potent line-up, some spare parts to deal and some starting (and bullpen) holes to fill. It should be interesting to see what laundry Ben Cherrington can come up with for me to root for.

Meanwhile - Godspeed Jon Lester.

State of the Red Sox

Everyone knows that the Red Sox top three priorities are starting pitching, starting pitching and starting pitching. Everyone also knows that Plan A to address starting pitching is Jon Lester. However, I agree with Tony Massarotti that pitching not Lester is the priority for Boston. I also agree with Brian MacPherson that the Red Sox need to cash in their trade chips for a starter or two no matter what happens with Lester.

It would be best for Boston to trade Yoenis Cespedes, Jackie Bradley Jr.. Allen Craig, Will Middlebrooks and Shane Victorino. These guys really have no place in the 2015 line-up right now (although Middlebrooks and Bradley could be stashed in Pawtucket and I'm curious if Craig can bounce back after his awful 2014 season - I wouldn't mind keeping him as the 13th position player instead of selling low on a potential All-Star). I have Daniel Nava and Brock Holt as my super-utility guys so they are not on my trade list.

Use the above guys plus some pieces from the well stocked farm system to trade for two of the following (maybe just one if Boston signs Lester); Jeff Samardzija, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, Matt Latos, Rick Porcello, and of course Cole Hamels. If the Red Sox add two veteran starters they would be in good shape and well positioned to make a move at the 2015 trading deadline.

I have faith in Ben Cherington that he'll make the right moves. I am worried, however, that on Friday Boston principal owner John Henry goes to visit Jon Lester and then on Saturday we see the pieces from Massarotti and MacPherson saying "this isn't all about Lester you know." The conspiracy theorist in me questions the timing of the articles.

Player Comparison

Here's a Player Comparison between two pitchers

Player A: Age 30 / Height 6'4" / Weight 240 / GS 252 / IP 1596
Player B: Age 31 / Height 6'5" / Weight 205 / GS 191 / IP 1510

I use different ages for two reasons - Player A was born in January while Player B was born in November also Player B basically lost a season to the 1995 Player's Strike. I consider the players to be fairly similar in body types and pitching styles (though Player A is a lefty and Player B a righty).

The reason I think this is a pertinent Player Comparison is because Player A is Jon Lester and the Red Sox may be considering signing him to a six-year deal. Player B is Curt Schilling who averaged 217 innings pitched in the next six years after his age 31 season. I happen to think six years is a good risk on Lester.

I don't buy that Schilling was just 205 pounds though.

Top 5 - Red Sox Pitching Trade Targets

With Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval in the fold - now all Red Sox fans attention tuns to pitching. My number one wish remains that they sign (re-sign?) Jon Lester but the Sox have a glut of players and a trade for at least one starter is bound to happen. Here's who I would consider the Top 5 pitching trade targets for Boston.

1. Cole Hamels Phillies - has 5-years and $110 million left on contract (if you include the 2019 option year). Maybe a package of Clay Buchholz, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Craig and Brandon Workman would be a good starting point.
2. Jordan Zimmerman Nationals - free agent after this season. Maybe a package of Yoenis Cespedis and Allen Craig get this done.
3. Doug Fister Nationals - free agent after this season offer same package as above.
4. Rick Porcello Tigers - trade him for Yoenis Cespedis straight up.
5. Cincinnati Reds - a number of pitchers here (Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake) are all free agents after 2015 but the Reds may wait till mid-season to do any trading.

Red Sox Thoughts

The Red Sox have brought in both free agents Jon Lester and Pablo Sandoval for visits. My hope is that they sign (re-sign?) Lester and let Sandoval go back to the Giants.

Lester is a workhorse and I would not have an issue with a 6-year $127-140 million deal. I see the 31-year old Lester as a left-handed Curt Schilling who was able to pitch until he was 40-years old.

Everyone remembers the heroics of Sandoval in the post-season but in the regular season he's basically just a 6-hole hitter. Brian MacPherson has a good breakdown of what Sandoval is and isn't. Don't over pay for that!

Let me also say that I wouldn't mind if Clay Buchholz was traded as part of a package for Cole Hamels or straight up for Doug Fister (I think 3-years of Buchholz at $38.5 million total is a good value for the free agent to be Fister).

So let it be written - so let it be done!

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I see Jon Lester as a very similar pitcher to Curt Schilling (except one's a righty the other lefty) and Schilling pitched till he was 40. I would have no problem with the Red Sox extending a 6-7 year contract to Lester at market rates. Bring Jon Lester home... Cool - the top of the Prudential Tower in Boston poking through the clouds... Penn & Teller's Bullsh*t now on Amazon Prime. Pretty excited for that...  Sacrifice... Would Reach-Around Elmo be a good name for a band or fantasy football team?... I wonder if somewhere in Vegas they have the odds on Roger Clemens being voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame...

State of the Red Sox

The state of the Red Sox can be summed up in six words, "Too many outfielders, not enough starters."

Here's the outfielders Boston has under contract for next season; Yoenis Cespedes, Shane Victorino, Rusney Castillo, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Brock Holt. You only play 3 outfielders at a time - so having 8 seems a bit much. Even if you say Brock Holt and Mookie Betts are really infielders - that still leaves 6 outfielders for 3 starting jobs. Something has to give.

Meanwhile - here are the starters that are under control for next year; Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, Brandon Workman, Rubby Del La Rosa, Anthony Ranaundo and Allen Webster. Does any of those names jump out at you as a number 1 or 2 starter? Me neither.

So what to do? The obvious first answer is to sign Jon Lester to a long term deal. At this point 6-years for $150 million is what it will probably take. Then you hope Lester is more like Andy Pettitte when it comes to durability and less like Jack McDowell. 

Even if you sign Lester - a rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Kelly, Del La Rosa and pick a name doesn't sound like a playoff contender. Signing free agent James Shields would obviously help but what are the odds of one team signing 2 of the top 3 free agent pitchers? That's why a starter is probably the number one trade priority for the team this off-season. The most obvious name would be Cole Hamels who is owed $94 million over the next 4 seasons. 

The good news is that the class of free agent outfielders this year is pretty weak - and guess who has outfielders to spare? Pretty sad but I'm looking forward more to the hot stove than to the rest of the season. I think many fans feel the same.

Linky Links

Things I found interesting or amusing and thought I'd share.

- Jon Lester says goodbye to Boston with full page ad. Two quick thoughts; I really hate the term "Red Sox Nation" - no Boston fan I know uses it and second if Lester really wanted to stick it to John Henry he would have placed the ad in the Boston Herald (Henry owns the Globe)

- Heh heh - Aboard Heaven's Choo Choo. (Someone should create an Urban Dictionary entry saying "Heaven's Choo Choo" is Vatican slang for vagina.)

- Fantastic review of movie The Big Chill by Lena Dunham

- Excellent video footage on shark behavior

- A-Rod's doping habits are beyond weird

State of the Red Sox

Here's five thoughts on the recent shake-up of the Red Sox roster.

1. The biggest difference between the pre-trade deadline line-up and the line-up today is the fact that Boston went from having two players (Ortiz, Napoli) with 25+ HR potential to having five (Ortiz, Napoli, Middlebrooks, Craig and Cespedes). I included Allen Craig even though the most HR he's hit in a season was 22 (but it was in just 119 games). That's a huge difference in pop in the line-up.

2. I have to wonder if Shane Victorino was healthy enough to pass a deadline physical whether he would have been traded too. My guess is he's shut down for the season and dealt once he's healthy. Did I say guess or hope?

3. How do the Red Sox hope to compete for top talent if they are not willing to pay the going rate? The Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka a 7-year $155 million deal while Boston management looks like it was unwilling to give Jon Lester something comparable to a 5-year $110 million deal.

4. Conversely it should be noted that Oakland had the best record in baseball while relying mainly on young arms (plus 30-year olds Scott Kazmir and Jesse Chavez). Ace Sonny Gray 24, Tommy Milone 27, Dan Straily 25, and Drew Pomeranz 25 have made a combined 53 starts for the first place A's this season. Compare that to Boston's young arms of Brandon Workman 25, Rubby Del La Rosa 25, Allan Webster 24, and Anthony Ranaudo 24. It looks like Boston is looking to use the A's blueprint next season.

5. The speculation is that with payroll down to just $95 million for next season the Red Sox will use their stockpile of prospects to make a big splash in the trade market. The focus has been on Giancarlo Stanton but the two names I'd like to see on a Boston Opening Day roster next season are Troy Tulowitzki or Cole Hamels. Both would be great.

Top 5 - Reasons to go to Fenway Park This Season

Here are the Top 5 reasons to go to Fenway Park for the remainder of the season.

1. To see Derek Jeter's final regular season game (and maybe final game if Yankees miss playoffs) on September 28th.

2. To see the Tom Petty concert on August 30th.

3. If Jon Lester gets traded and his new team visits Fenway.

4. If someone gives you free tickets and you had no other plans for the night.

5. Ummm.... sorry. Can't seem to think of a 5th reason to see this dumpster fire of a team this season.

Who the Red Sox Should Trade

Brian MacPherson has a list of 10 players the Red Sox may be looking to sell. While I agree that the Red Sox would be wise to move Badenhop, Breslow, Carp, Dubront, Drew, and Gomes - I would disagree about the other names on his list (Lester, Middlebrooks, Miller and Uehara).

To the six players I agree the Red Sox should shop - I would also add:

Shane Victorino - has one more year on his contract ($13 million) and who is know hitting exclusively right-handed. Aren't right handed bats supposed to be in demand?

Edward Mujica - also has one more year on his contract ($4.75 million). I think of Mujica as another Mark Melancon who is dominate in the NL but for whatever reasons just had problems performing in Boston.

My reasons for disagreeing with MacPherson on the four players listed?

Jon Lester - to quote Teddy KGB "play that man his money." If they trade Lester he's gone for good.Pay him his money and just recognize the front office screwed up trying to be cute in their initial offers.

Will Middlebrooks - too valuable a prospect to trade. He has 30-HR potential as a corner infielder. Those don't grow on trees. He's also under team control for another 4 more years! Middlebrooks isn't going anywhere (for now).

Andrew Miller - I will admit that it would make sense to trade Miller since he's a free agent after the season but my heart hopes Miller realizes that he was able to turn his career around in Boston and that leaving may be a mistake.

Koji Uehara - if they do trade Koji I will understand but I would love to see him as the closer for another 2 more years. Main reason not to trade him - who's the closer in 2015? Does the Red Sox front office really want to go through that circus again?