The Odds and Margins of Democracy for Whales and for Suckers

Americans tend to forget that “democracy” isn’t about everybody getting what they want.  Rather, it’s about the most people choosing to get the most they can of what they want.   The “will of the people” is merely a euphemism for dictatorship by numerical power… leaving everyone else to consider other forms of power.

So while voting is certainly a useful tool in constructing a proper government, democracy is also, as James Thurber put it, “…a dangerous thing.” In a system where no one is required to think in terms of right and wrong, there’s a real danger to finding one’s self among a minority.  And yet, everyone finds themselves in the minority at some point.  This is ostensibly why the US system of democracy is tempered through a constitutional republic.  Our electoral dice are heavily loaded.

Remember any of those polls predicting a “President Trump” win on election night? Ha! Neither do I. But I do remember one place that put the two major candidates on equal footing right up the bitter end. As I recall, the Vegas books were placing even odds (at something like -120) on both candidates. Perhaps a bad margin for betters (effectively 20% for the house), but at least the books didn’t make the mistake of paying a premium to any of those bettors with more sense that the people who do the polls.

I live in a state where it’s entirely legal to gamble on such matters.  “Books” presently have payouts reflecting odds on everything from who will win the upcoming Democratic state caucus (Sanders at -350, meaning that it would take a $350 bet to win just $100), to whether the Ayatollah will still be alive when Trump leaves office ($100 will win you $250 if he still is). And since there’s real money invested in the payouts, there’s a great deal of emphasis upon determining them from an informed and objective perspective.

Granted, I was exposed to too much statistics in college to gamble my own hard-earned capital, even with the $50,000 payout for $100 placed on Howard Shultz as our next president.  There’s a reason those Vegas casinos can afford to build such magnificent edifices to the almighty gods of odds and margins.  They call high-rollers, “whales”.  And as people who can afford to lose big, casinos know they’re worth attracting with the oversized VIP-treatment they receive.  But people with systems… they’re simply known as “suckers”.

Speaking of which, I get the feeling that a lot of Americans are going through something like a reflexive gag-response this election silly-season, trying to cough up the accumulated hairball of suddenly realizing how much they’ve been suckered by “democratic” governance.   So I don’t think anyone should be surprised that the books are currently placing Sanders as the most likely Democratic Party contender to a throne built upon the ballots of the disenfranchised.

But the odds can always change.  Regardless of the will of the people, twelve of my own state’s forty-eight Democratic delegates aren’t even pledged.  And there’s still some time left in which to blow on the dice. Wait long enough and who knows, Howard Shultz, might come from nowhere with a plan for free coffee!  I know a lot of people who’d probably vote for that.

If you’re a gambling type, however, you still might want to check the odds regarding the general election before plopping down a bet… just be prepared for a good cough.

 

The Fearsome Power of Foolishness

I just received word today from my one friend in mainland China that she’s fine, despite the virtual shutdown of the country.  Originally from Wuhan, but more recently shuttling between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, she’s stuck at her parents’ retirement home on the tropical paradise of Hainan Island.  Despite the irony of her situation, however, she mostly expressed concern for her business dealings in Shenzhen, which had all come to a stop during the government imposed holiday extension.  Somehow, I understood.  She once commented to me that she didn’t have a sense of humor.
加油中国!

Likewise, I was a terribly serious person at one time.  Nowadays… not so much, for a number of reasons (though not very seriously):
1) It’s misleading. The perspective results in the mistaken perception that the universe is governed by something serious. And yet, God must have created all of this with an overarching, if inscrutable sense-of-humor.
2) It’s irrelevant. No one else, at least no one in-charge is serious.  Our own government has been described as, “clowns in charge of a circus.”  And a Boeing employee recently revealed that monkeys apparently supervise the clowns.
3) It has no explanatory power. Anyone who has had to apply Quantum Mechanics in any science recognizes that the entire universe has statistically thumbed its nose at us, and all we can do is Ψ.
4) It’s toxic to your body. It causes stress and the release of cortisol, and messes with your immune system. It can even cause your hair to fall out (or to get pulled out).
5) It increases cognitive errors. It breaks focus on important mental tasks by constantly re-introducing worry and doubt, leading to self-consciousness, distraction and mistakes.
6) It’s addictive. It’s seriously habit-forming, and leads to endless repetition of like thoughts, causing an inability to sense other perspectives and to experience pleasure naturally.
7) It squanders time. It distracts attention from reality in much the same way as a smart phone during a vacation. And since it results in nothing, it’s time wasted.
8) It results in passivity. It’s overwhelmingly applied to things over which we have no control, grinding us down to a pessimistic “learned helplessness”, if not depression.
9) It destroys creativity. It’s why most people produce their most innovative works at a young age, while their minds are still unrestrained by pointless worry.

In the pantheon of Japanese gods and goddesses, or “Kami”, the goddess Ame-no-Uzume no Mikoto, or “Uzume”, is known as the guardian goddess of art and dancing, joy, and harmony. In Japanese tradition, Uzume is known for her role in luring the Sun-Goddess, Amaterasu from the cave to which she fled after becoming offended by her brother. This having plunged both the heavens and the earth into darkness, the other gods tried desperately, but in vain, to tempt Amaterasu from the cave.

Uzume, however, having grown weary of the gods’ darkened moods, brought them food and a tub filled with plum wine. And while the other gods ate and drank themselves silly, Uzume hung a polished-jade stone and a bronze mirror from the branches of a tree outside of the cave within which Amaterasu had hidden herself. Then she overturned the now empty tub in front of the intoxicated gods, stood upon it, and began to dance wildly while singing ridiculous songs and tearing off her clothes.

From inside the cave, Amaterasu could hear the roars of laughter from the other gods at this absurd sight, and she decided to see what was causing the commotion. But upon peering from the cave, she saw the beautiful stone lit by her own magnificent reflection in the mirror, and her light was returned to the universe.

Uzume’s dance is celebrated in various Japanese “Kagura Festivals”, which play a solemn role in Shinto tradition. “Sato-Kagura” (“Village Kagura”) are ritualized dances reenacting mythological tales, including the return of the sun. In a less formal Buddhist tradition, however, the “Awa Odori” also embodies this same spirit in massive, public dance festivals.  The Awa Odori character is summed up in the saying, “Fools dance, fools watch. A fool either way, why not dance?

Uzume, however, is also known as “the Fearless One”, or “The Terrible Female of Heaven”. According to Shinto mythology, when the Grandchild of Heaven was sent to the earth to bring order, it was for this reason that she was sent ahead to confront a huge and terrifying earthly spirit that blocked his way. But upon meeting the creature, Uzume merely bared her breasts and belly, and laughed at it. Overwhelmed by the sheer boldness and absurdity of her behavior, the spirit promised his allegiance without even a fight.

Animals can either fight or flee. Humans, however, have a third option. We can both defend and heal ourselves, and disarm our opponents with… laughter.

Image: The Japanese Sun Goddess Amaterasu emerging from a cave. 19th century. Signed: ’Shunsai Toshimasa’ (春斎年昌), title: ’Iwato kagura no kigen’ (岩戸神楽之起顕), my translation as, “The Bared Shinto Dance Near the Rock Door”, from the Wikimedia Commons.

Video: “The Fool’s Training Scene“, A group of local residents practicing for the 2017 Awa Odori in Tokushima.  You can follow Kenji Miyaki’s links in his video to other clips of the dancers performing for the public in traditional clothing.