“I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness…”

― Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

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I never much liked Carl Sagan.  Recalling listening to him on television as a ten-year old kid, he always struck me as a sort of standard-bearer for the socially disconnected Mensa personality.  Compared to many of the current crop of pop-science presenters, however, looking back at his work is rather a breath of fresh air.  Even much of today’s popular presentation of “science” strikes me as having fallen to his own predictions. “The dumbing down of Americans is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance.“

The quotes here are all drawn from a work Sagan published in a 1995 book, just a year before his death at the age of sixty-two.  They’ve been making the rounds in various circles since late 2016.  Just as with other thinkers from history dating back to Plato, Sagan saw an upcoming generation as mentally and emotionally less prepared to meet the demands of a society built upon the increasingly complex systems fostered by previous generations.  But unlike so many preceding prognosticators of doom, Sagan also proposed a way forward from this, “Demon Haunted World“.

Sagan’s book was actually about critical thinking.  It’s largely a discussion of the ways in which our minds get drawn into convenient explanations, wishful thinking, or just outright trickery.  Through various examples, it lamented the power this kind of flawed thinking can have over the human mind.  “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.“

To counter this, Sagan looked toward the best model he knew for pursuing rational, objective thought.  “Science as a Candle in the Dark,” is not referring to a defense of the discoveries of science, but rather an appeal to the kind of rational and well-considered thinking that it entails.  The philosophy of “science” as an approach to knowledge is founded in creating descriptions of the universe that are based in the careful measurement and observation of an objective reality.  It’s an approach that may not always be comforting; but it does provide a powerful means for making accurate assessments of how best to move forward.  “One of the reasons for its success is that science has a built-in, error-correcting machinery at its very heart. …every time we exercise self-criticism, every time we test our ideas against the outside world, we are doing science.“

The whole reason this came to mind was in response to an honest query from a friend, who, knowing my political leaning was a little surprised by my personal decision as to how to vote in an upcoming election.  Listening to myself explaining things, I realized that my response was something along the lines of Sagan’s own words.  Regardless of whether or not I support particular policies, the US has simply gone too far down the wrong road in their justifications.  To quote Scott Adams, “When did ignorance become a point of view?“

To be fair, both of the large US political parties do this to varying degrees.  But one force has emerged as a gathering beacon for ignorance as a point of view.   And as a consequence, Americans have become artificially polarized over convenient distractions and non-issues.  In a country where merely wearing a face-mask in public as a courtesy to others during a pandemic has been turned into a controversial political statement, rational analysis and public discourse have been so thoroughly sacrificed for emotional outbursts and absurdities as to frequently veer into tinfoil-hat territory. 

Political leanings aside, this year’s election is for me based more in an appraisal of the nation’s ability to apply rational thought and objectivity to its actions.  Voting for four years down a political road I don’t actually agree with most certainly isn’t what inspires my support.  I think most people looking in that direction for a hopeful future are, at a personal level, engaging in the same kind of wishful thinking Sagan warned about.  But at least its not an overall political route that discourages the broader application of some reasoned thinking and skepticism.  “The question is not whether we like the conclusion that emerges out of a train of reasoning, but whether the conclusion follows from the premise or starting point and whether that premise is true.”