AccuWeather has an article that says that sooner or later the NorthEast is going to get another hit from a major hurricane.

Threat of Major Hurricane Strike Grows for Northeast
AccuWeather.com Warns That “Weather Disaster of Historic Proportions” Could Strike as Early as This Year
(New York, NY – March 20, 2006)

The northeast U.S. coast could be the target of a major hurricane, perhaps as early as this season, according to research announced today by the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center. In terms of number of storms, the 2006 hurricane season will again be more active than normal, but less active than last summer’s historic storm season.

“The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun,” said Joe Bastardi, Chief Forecaster of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center. “The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we’re seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if but when.”

Folks, that’s a safe bet. The East Coast and the Gulf Coast are susceptible to hurricanes. Sure, they’re more prevalent south of Virginia, but any student of history knows that the northern end of the coast gets them from time to time.

The current cycle and above-normal water temperatures are reminiscent of the pattern that eventually produced the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence, R.I. That storm killed 600 people in New England and Long Island. The 1938 hurricane was the strongest tropical system to strike the northeastern U.S. in recorded history, with maximum gusts of 186 mph, a 15- to 20-foot storm surge and 25- to 50-foot waves that left much of Providence under 10-15 feet of water. Forecasters at AccuWeather.com say that patterns are similar to those of the 1930s, 40s and 50s when storms such as the 1938 hurricane, the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricanes and the Trio of 1954–Carol, Edna and Hazel–battered the coast from the Carolinas to New England. The worry is that it will be sooner, rather than later, for this region to be blasted again.

That’s an altogether scary thing. You folks up there… Your coastal areas are like our coastal areas. They’ve been built up over the years, supporting populations and infrastructure far greater than fifty years ago. A decent hurricane bearing down on a chunk of the New England coast would make evacuating Galveston and Houston look like a Sunday drive.

But we’re not out of the dark yet, either.

Additionally, AccuWeather.com believes that the upper Texas coast is likely to be the target of higher than normal hurricane and tropical storm activity over the next 10 years. “Hurricane Rita was a warning shot,” says AccuWeather.com’s Bastardi, referring to the 2005 Category 5 storm that threatened the Houston area and made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border last September. “The Texas coast is in for a long period of tropical activity, particularly the region from Corpus Christi to Sabine Pass at the Louisiana border.”

No area of the country is NOT subject to some form of natural disaster. I know you folks in the northern tier have blizzards, and the central plains has tornadoes and catastrophic thunderstorms, and California is waiting for “The Big One”, but let me tell you something: It’s one hell of an experience to come back to your home and find that there’s not only no electricity now, but there’s not gonna be any for weeks, no grocery stores open, no gas to be found for a hundred miles in any direction, and you and your neighbors’ subsistence depends on getting in line for FEMA aid.

I’ve been in the aftermath of several tornadoes, and a couple of hurricanes. a tornado touched down in Lake Charles on morning thirty-odd years ago. It tore up a goodly section of one of the main streets in town. Where the tornado actually hit, it was total destruction. But a quarter mile on either side? Life was normal. Lights. Electricity. Water. Kids going to school. Mom cleaning house. Dad going off to work.

Rita? From Jennings, Louisiana to just this side of Houston, Texas, not a drop of gasoline to be found. No government services for a couple of days until the National Guard and FEMA made a show. The local police and emergency services were operating under conditions more likely to be found in a combat zone, although without the gunfire.

Because a hurricane of this magnitude has not made landfall in the northeastern U.S. in nearly 60 years, few Americans are even aware that hurricanes can and do directly impact this part of the country. Because most hurricanes in the last 50 years have been a southern U.S. phenomenon, preparedness for a major hurricane along the Northeast coast is not as thorough. But the storm that struck Providence on Sept. 21, 1938, traveled northward along the Gulf Stream and first made landfall in Westhampton, Long Island before ripping a path across the island and continuing north to Rhode Island. That storm is still regarded as the greatest weather disaster in Long Island history. It altered the Long Island coastline, created the Shinnecock Inlet, and has since been known as “the Long Island Express.” Many meteorologists believe that the next time a storm like “the Long Island Express” hits the Northeast coast, it could become the greatest natural disaster in U.S. history.

I do so hope that all the “enlightened” government up there does a better job handling the aftermath than New Orleans did…

Here’s a deep, dark secret: Take ANY SECTION of the coast from Maine all the way down around the tip of Florida and all the way over to Brownsville at the southern tip of Texas. Predict a hurricane is gonna hit. As long as you don’t try and nail down a firm date, YOU’RE GONNA BE RIGHT!

Now take a little advice from this ol’ Cajun feller. If you’re within a hundred miles of that coast, then have your plans and your “get the hell outta Dodge” bag ready. Better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it…