Egyptians Attack Israeli Embassy

Egyptian protesters have attacked the Israeli Embassy in Egypt. What were they mad about (other than the usual)?

"This action shows the state of anger and frustration the young Egyptian revolutionaries feel against Israel especially after the recent Israeli attacks on the Egyptian borders that led to the killing of Egyptian soldiers," Egyptian political analyst Nabil Abdel Fattah told Reuters.

Egyptian police stood aside as activists tore down the concrete wall to the cheers of hundreds of demonstrators.

Well what about those recent attacks?

At least seven people have been killed in a series of attacks on vehicles in southern Israel, Israeli medics say.

The attacks began when gunmen fired at an Israeli bus that was travelling near the Egyptian border.

Officials said two other vehicles were hit - one by a rocket and one by an explosive device - and that several gunmen died in an ensuing firefight.

And the gunmen (seven of whom were killed) were Egyptian soldiers? OK.

So who were they? Really.

Israeli officials said the gunmen came from the Gaza Strip and had entered Israel through Egypt's Sinai desert.

"The real source of the terror is in Gaza and we will act against them with full force and determination," said Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak.

He also said that the "incident underscores the weak Egyptian hold on Sinai and the broadening of the activities of terrorists".

A lot of excitement there. But so far no major casualties. If you count seven dead as minor.

Things are looking to get more exciting between Israel and Turkey.

"Turkey raising naval presence amid tension with Israel," by Pinar Aydinli for Reuters, September 6:

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey is freezing defense trade with Israel and stepping up naval patrols in the eastern Mediterranean, highlighting a potentially destabilizing rift between the two major U.S. allies in the Middle East.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's threat on Tuesday to send warships into waters where Israel's navy operates raises the risk of a naval confrontation between the two powers.

But that is not the only risk.

Turkey will be escorting the next Gaza flotilla.

"Turkish warships will be tasked with protecting the Turkish boats bringing humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip," Mr Erdogan told the Arabic television network Al Jazeera.

"From now on, we will no longer allow these ships to be the targets of attacks by Israel like the one on the Freedom Flotilla, because then Israel will have to deal with an appropriate response."

You know. I think this means war.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

The Looting Has Begun

What does social breakdown look like? Spengler has a few thoughts about Egypt.

From Arab-language online media, it appears that Egypt's economic troubles have metastasized. Last month, rice disappeared from public storehouses amid press reports that official food distribution organizations were selling the grain by the container on the overseas market. Last week, diesel fuel was the scarce commodity, with 24-hour queues forming around gasoline stations. Foreign tankers were waiting at Port Said on the Suez Canal to pump diesel oil from storage facilities, as government officials sold the scarce commodity for cash.

This is the sort of general breakdown I observed in 1992 in Russia, following the collapse of the communist government. As an adviser to finance minister Yegor Gaidar, I heard stories of Russian officials selling unregistered trainloads of raw materials on foreign markets and depositing the proceeds in Swiss banking accounts. Anything of value that could find a buyer overseas was sold. I didn't last long as an adviser; looting and pillaging wasn't my area of competence. Russia, it should be recalled, is largely self-sufficient in food and is among the world's largest oil producers, while Egypt imports half its food. Russia had enormous resources on which to draw. Egypt, Syria and Tunisia have nothing.

So how are things going in Syria?

Robert Fisk wrote in the London Independent on May 30 that Turkey fears a mass influx of Syrian Kurdish refugees, so that "Turkish generals have thus prepared an operation that would send several battalions of Turkish troops into Syria itself to carve out a 'safe area' for Syrian refugees inside Assad's caliphate." The borders of the affected nations have begun to dissolve along with their economies. It will get worse fast.

I think what Spengler meant by fast was like today.

Israeli forces fired on a crowd marking the anniversary of the 1967 Middle East War by trying to enter from Syria, where human rights groups said Syrian troops killed 25 protesters in a village in the country’s north.

A general strike took place for the second day today in the Syrian city of Hama in mourning for dozens of people killed there by security forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad last week, according to the independent Web site Syrian Observatory, which is monitoring the unrest.

“The city is completely closed and the army has pulled out, but the people are scared” that the army may attack again, Mahmoud Merhi, the head of the Arab Organization for Human Rights, said by telephone from Damascus.

Ah yes. The Israelis fire on a crowd - top of the news. Syrians kill 25? Not quite so important.

And the people of Hama are scared? Why not? There is some history there.

The Hama massacre occurred in February 1982, when the Syrian army, under the orders of the president of Syria Hafez al-Assad, conducted a scorched earth policy against the town of Hama in order to quell a revolt by the Sunni Muslim community against the regime of al-Assad. The Hama massacre, personally conducted by president Assad's younger brother, Rifaat al-Assad, effectively ended the campaign begun in 1976 by Sunni Islamic groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, against Assad's regime, whose leaders were disproportionately from president Assad's own Alawite sect.

The death toll estimates run from 10,000 to 40,000. I wonder how many boy Assad will bag this time?

And of course I wonder what kind of plan our esteemed man from Chicago ne (Hawaii) has developed to cope with coming events. We shall know in time. I'm betting that it will be - borrow money from China to give to the crooks in the various Middle East governments.

Is Egypt Double Crossing The Palestinians?

There is a new gang running Egypt and they have decided to open the Egypt/Gaza crossing to normal traffic.

Egypt will permanently open its Rafah border crossing with Gaza by the weekend.

The Egyptian border with Gaza will be opened daily beginning on May 28, the Egyptian state MENA news agency reported.

The decision is “part of Egyptian efforts to end divisions among Palestinians and to finalize their reconciliation.” Egypt brokered the recent reconciliation between the Fatah party, led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and the Islamist Hamas organization.

The opening takes the steam out of Israel’s land and sea blockade of Gaza, which began after Hamas took over power in Gaza in 2007. The Egyptian border closed at the same time.

It is not clear if only people, or also goods, will be allowed to cross the Rafah border. Israel limits the kind of goods that enter Gaza in order to prevent weapons-making material from falling into the hands of Hamas and other terrorist organizations.

Yes it is dangerous. But more for the Palestinians than the Israelis. First off the tunnel builders and the smugglers that use them will be out of business. That will cause hardship for some. But that is not the worst that could happen.

Let us suppose Hamas, which controls Gaza, arms to the teeth and then starts a war with the Israelis. What might the Israelis do in retaliation? The Gaza Strip is 3 1/2 to 7 1/2 miles wide and 25 miles long. The Israelis could start walking an artillery barrage from the north end of Gaza and working its way south. At 50 ft a minute they could cover a mile in about two hours. Which would give the residents barely enough time to evacuate. In a day they could clear about 1/2 the Strip. With the Egyptian border open the refugees from the barrage would have no trouble heading for Egypt. Three days of such a barrage would make Hamas and the citizens of Gaza Egypt's problem.

Would the Israelis do such a thing? Doubtful. But it is unwise to wage a war by calculating an enemy's intentions. It is wiser to calculate based on capabilities. Is Hamas wise? Surely you are joking.

Logistical Failure

According to Debka - not always the most reliable source - the Palestinians have shot their wad and all they have to show for it is a messy clean up job.

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has run into blank walls in his ploy for using a unity pact between his Fatah and the extremist Hamas as the fulcrum for a diplomatic offensive against Israel to climax in UN recognition of a Palestinian state in September.

Since his unity pact with Hamas was signed on May 4 Jordan's King Abdullah has refused to receive him or any of his messengers. Sunday, May 22, when Abbas asked for an urgent interview, the king told his office to stop transferring any more of these requests.

Debka says the King has a couple of problems with Abbas and his Fatah gang. They forgot to notify him of their plan to join with Hamas. Which is a ludicrous statement. Abbas has been trying for "national unity" for the last few years. It has been an on again, off again, deal. Evidently for the time being it is on again. The King would also like to dump his Palestinian refugees. Either on Israel - not going to happen - or on the Palestinians. And in their "right of return" craze they made no attempt to include their pawns brothers in Jordan. My guess is that is the King's real beef.

The Muslim Brotherhood and its Hamas offshoot are the most powerful force opposing the throne in the Hashemite Kingdom. Enhancing Hamas' hand in the Palestinian stakes has major ramifications for Jordan's domestic political equilibrium.

Abdullah's boycott of the Palestinian leader covers the cutoff of Jordanian intelligence ties with Palestinian counterparts.

Abbas had been counting on meeting the king in Amman Sunday to receive a briefing on his talks with US President Barack Obama at the White House on May 18, the day before Obama unveiled his Middle East policy. Abdullah not only denied him that interview but asked US officials not to share the content of his conversation with Obama with any Palestinian. Abbas thus lost a vital source of information on US administration plans.

Ah yes. The Muslim Brotherhood. Nice bunch of fellers. If you like unreformed Nazis.

In the 1920's there was a young Egyptian named al Bana. And al Bana formed this nationalist group called the Muslim Brotherhood. Al Bana was a devout admirer of Adolph Hitler and wrote to him frequently. So persistent was he in his admiration of the new Nazi Party that in the 1930's, al-Bana and the Muslim Brotherhood became a secret arm of Nazi intelligence.

The Arab Nazis had much in common with the new Nazi doctrines. They hated Jews; they hated democracy; and they hated the Western culture. It became the official policy of the Third Reich to secretly develop the Muslim Brotherhood as the fifth Parliament, an army inside Egypt.

When war broke out, the Muslim Brotherhood promised in writing that they would rise up and help General Rommell and make sure that no English or American soldier was left alive in Cairo or Alexandria.

The Muslim Brotherhood began to expand in scope and influence during World War II. They even had a Palestinian section headed by the grand Mufti of Jerusalem, one of the great bigots of all time.

I have written an article or two about the Mufti including Palestinian Role in the Holocaust. Charming fellow. If you like Nazi sympathizers.

Back to Debka.

After being outmaneuvered in the Arab arena, the Palestinian leader's plans to internationalize the Palestinian-Israel dispute and confront Israel with a Palestinian state with 1967 borders ran into another impediment – in Moscow.

In a bid to outmaneuver Washington's role as sponsor of the peace process, Abbas turned to Russia in deference to its veto power at the UN Security Council. He offered to transfer negotiations on the next phase of Fatah-Hamas reconciliation to Moscow.

Abbas duly arrived in the Russian capital Friday, May 20, for the first session along with delegations from Hamas, the Democratic and Popular "Fronts" and the Palestinian al-Shaab communist party.

But to his dismay, the Russians stalled the opening session, debkafile's Moscow sources reveal, demanding that all the Palestinian factions represented must first accept the three standing stipulations of the Middle East Quartet (US, Russia, EU and the UN), namely recognize Israel, abjure violence and accept previous international commitments. Hamas stood by its adamant refusal to accept any of those conditions.

Russia, a nominally western country has more to gain from ties with Israel, with all its Russian immigrants, than from any alliance with the failed state of Palestine. Israel has technology. Some of the best in the world. The Palestinians have what? Problems. Lots of problems. And their problems are tied up with Egypt's problems. Basket cases all. Which causes us to ask - besides the Nazi stupidity - what has caused the failure in the Muslim countries of the Middle East? Spengler has the answer.

Development economists have known for years that a disaster was in the works. A 2009 World Bank report on Arab food security warned, "Arab countries are very vulnerable to fluctuations in international commodity markets because they are heavily dependent on imported food. Arab countries are the largest importers of cereal in the world. Most import at least 50 percent of the food calories they consume." The trouble is that the Arab regimes made things worse rather than better.

Egypt's rulers of the past 60 years intentionally transformed what once was the breadbasket of the Mediterranean into a starvation trap. They did so through tragedy, not oversight. Keeping a large part of one's people illiterate on subsistence farms is the surest method of social control.

Crop yields in Egypt are a fifth of the best American levels, and by design, for no Egyptian government wished to add more displaced peasants to the 17 million people now crowded into Cairo. Syrian President Basher al-Assad made a few tentative steps in this direction, and got a 100,000 landless farmers living in tent cities around Damascus (Food and Syria's failure Asia Times Online March 29, 2011).

Gamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar Sadat and Mubarak did not invent the system. Post-revolutionary Russia imprisoned its peasants on collective farms; as the Mexican historian Enrique Krauze showed (in his 1992 book TextosHereticos), post-revolutionary Mexico emulated the Stalinist model of social control and imposed its own system of collective farms during the 1930s.

Mexico eventually dumped a fifth of its population on its northern neighbor, mainly rural people from the impoverished south. The remaining Mexican poor provided an inexhaustible source of foot-soldiers for the drug cartels with which the Mexican government is fighting a low-intensity civil war.

Egypt, the most populous Arab country, postponed these problems for three generations. It is governable only by military rule, de facto or de jure, because the military is the only institution that can take peasants straight from the farm and assimilate them into a disciplined social structure.

The huge jump in American food productivity in the early 20th Century led America into a great Depression. Just as the huge jump in industrial productivity caused by the microprocessor revolution has led to our current economic problems. The application of the microprocessor to education will in many ways prolong the misery. Why pay $40 dollars or more an hour for an education when you can go online and get one for free. Other than the time invested. All those $100,000 a year tenured professors are going the way of the buggy whip makers. This was predicted in Buckminster Fuller's 1971 book Education Automation.

Continuing with Spengler:

In place of the orderly corruption over which Mubarak presided, there is a scramble on the part of half-organized political groups to get control of the country's shrinking supply of basic goods. Civic violence likely will claim more lives than hunger.

Refugees from Libya and Tunisia have swamped the refugee camps on the closest Italian island, and hundreds have drowned in small boats attempting to cross the Mediterranean. By the end of this year, tourists on the Greek islands may see thousands of small boats carrying hungry Egyptians seeking help. Europe's sympathy for the Arab side may vanish under an inundation of refugees.

Events are most likely to overtake diplomacy. The sort of economic and demographic imbalances implied by the projections shown above reflect back into the present. Chaos in Egypt, Syria and other Arab countries probably will pre-empt the present focus on Israel and the Palestinians. It would not be surprising if the Palestinians were to mount another Intifada, or Egypt and Syria were to initiate one last war against Israel. It might be their last opportunity.

But I rate the probably of another war at well under 50%. The internal problems of Egypt and Syria are more likely to make war too difficult to wage.

We are living in interesting times. To learn more about the demographic collapse of the Muslim nations and the demographic rise of Israel read the whole Spengler article. Very much worth your while to get a glimpse of the future. Let me give you the short version. Why are Israeli women producing about 3.0 children each on average? Because they have hope for the future. Why are the Muslim nations undergoing demographic collapse? Hopelessness. And food shortages are only part of the problem.

What is the take away? Socialism doesn't work. Not international socialism. Not national socialism. Since Israel dropped socialism as the main organizing principle of its economy it has been on a tear.

The Israelis would be glad to help the Arabs if the Arabs would let them. Every nation that has expelled the Jews (France are you listening?) has eventually gone on to ruin. Those countries that embrace the Jews (and who more than Israel?) have prospered. The Bible is full of stories about human nature, government, and power relations among people and nations. Very good stories which illustrate basic facts about humans. I'm not much for Bible prophecy though. Except this one has been coming true for at least the last 2,000 years. This promise was made to Abraham:

I will bless those who bless you, and I will curse him who curses you; and in you all the families of the earth shall be blessed.

If there is anything to that prophecy (and it seems to have been working for quite some time) the Europeans and the Moslems had better watch out.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Attack On Coptic Monastary In Egypt

Don't watch this if you have a weak stomach. Even if you have a strong stomach it is hard to watch.

Here is a report from Coptic Solidarity (which has a shorter version of the video).

For the second time in as many days, Egyptian armed force stormed the 5th century old St. Bishoy monastery in Wadi el-Natroun, 110 kilometers from Cairo. Live ammunition was fired, wounding two monks and six Coptic monastery workers. Several sources confirmed the army's use of RPG ammunition. Four people have been arrested including three monks and a Coptic lawyer who was at the monastery investigating yesterday's army attack.

Monk Aksios Ava Bishoy told activist Nader Shoukry of Freecopts the armed forces stormed the main entrance gate to the monastery in the morning using five tanks, armored vehicles and a bulldozer to demolish the fence built by the monastery last month to protect themselves and the monastery from the lawlessness which prevailed in Egypt during the January 25 Uprising.

Asia News says:

The confrontation was sparked by the construction of fences around the convents to protect them from marauding criminals who escaped prison in the wake of the 25 January uprising. After issuing a 48-hour demolition order, the army moved in. Some 7,000 Copts protest in Tahrir Square.

There are more details at how the "situation" arose at the Asia News link.

This seems to be a rather excessive reaction to what amounts to a building code violation.

And don't forget: always take your camera to the action. Evidence is always good to counter the "narrative".

Here are a few pages of books on the The Copts and Egypt.

H/T Judith Weiss (Yehudit) on Facebook

Cross Posted at Classical Values

In Walks The Village Idiot

Inspired by: IN WALKS THE VILLAGE IDIOT, AND HIS FACE IS ALL AGLOW. He’s been up all night listening to Mohammed’s radio.

Which linked to an article about The Village Idiot.

They Still Have To Eat

Spengler at Asia Times makes a very good point about how Asian prosperity is hurting Muslim countries lacking exportable resources.

It wasn't the financial crisis that undermined dysfunctional Arab states, but Asian prosperity. The Arab poor have been priced out of world markets. There is no solution to Egypt's problems within the horizon of popular expectations. Whether the regime survives or a new one replaces it, the outcome will be a disaster of, well, biblical proportions.

The best thing the United States could do at the moment would be to offer massive emergency food aid to Egypt out of its own stocks, with the understanding that President Mubarak would offer effusive public thanks for American generosity. This is a stopgap, to be sure, but it would pre-empt the likely alternative. Otherwise, the Muslim Brotherhood will preach Islamist socialism to a hungry audience. That also explains why Mubarak just might survive. Even Islamists have to eat. The Iranian Islamists who took power in 1979 had oil wells; Egypt just has hungry mouths. Enlightened despotism based on the army, the one stable institution Egypt possesses, might not be the worst solution.

It all depends on what proportion of the total family budget is devoted to food. In the US it runs under 10% (in 1900 in the US it was around 30%). If food prices double in the US it is an inconvenience - especially since so much of the food dollar goes into transport and processing. If food prices double in Egypt the number of calories consumed pretty much has to decline by 50% - at least among the poor. Which are quite numerous in Egypt.

When the oil runs out (or some technology replaces it) the Middle East is going to be a very sorry place.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

The Muslim Brotherhood Liked Me

With the Muslim Brotherhood so much in the news because of Egyptian happenings and Instapundit's reprise of a 2005
Michael Totten piece I thought I would repeat a
blog conversation we had in 2007.

=====

I got a link from The Muslim Brotherhood. I asked Michael Totten if this was a good or a bad thing. He replied:

Considering which post they linked to, it is neither good nor bad.

The MB tries to put on a moderate face. And they are moderate compared with, say, Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and Hezbollah. But they are only really moderate compared with the armed factions. They aren't our friends.

My response to him was

Thanks for the reply. And you got it exactly right on the mark. Brilliant.

What they linked to was:

I Found A Moderate Muslim

===

Which is to say they were trying to moderate their image without moderating their behavior.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Egyptian Roundup 29 Jan

Al Jazeera streaming Internet coverage. Love the Brit accents of its reporters.

Al Jazeera's Egypt coverage embarrasses U.S. cable news channels

America-hating Jihadists in the Muslim Brotherhood well-positioned to take over after Mubarak toppled

Michael Totten: Egypt On Fire

Belmont Club Text Like An Egyptian

Telegraph UK - Egyptian News Roundup

New York Times - Egyptian News Roundup

Culture in the Islamic World:

Taliban stones woman to death, shoots man in ditch accused of Adultery.

How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy.

The effects are apparent in many countries. Improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live.

A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement; the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property, either as a child, a wife, or a concubine, must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men.

Individual Moslems may show splendid qualities, but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it.

No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilization of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilization of ancient Rome. - Winston Churchill

Not much has changed since Winnie said that.

UGANDA: Leader of Gay Rights movement Brutally Murdered in his Home

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Hamas Is Breaking

Iran's ally Syria has called for a cease fire in Gaza that accepts at least part of what the Israelis wanted.

Syrian President Bashar Assad called on Israel to cease its military operation in Gaza immediately, while simultaneously demanding that Hamas cease its fire towards Israel.

In an interview with the BBC network Assad warned that the fighting in Gaza could lead to the exacerbation of Islamic extremism in the Middle East.

"The effects of the war are more dangerous than the war itself," he said during Wednesday's interview. "It's planting the seeds for extremism and terror in the entire region."

Assad accused Israel of refusing to honor the ceasefire that expired in December and claimed it was the State's responsibility to halt the "murder" of the Palestinians and the siege on Gaza.

He claimed Syria, which plays host to a number of senior Hamas officials, was doing everything in its power to put an end to the fighting.

Aside from the usual anti-Israel rhetoric this is a big development. Both Syria and Hamas are supported by Iran. As to making extremism in the Middle East worse. I believe the war with Hamas is doing the opposite. It is showing that extremism doesn't pay.

As for Israel refusing to honor the cease fire? I believe the cease fire never existed - the rockets never stopped. In addition Hamas called off the cease fire anyway. Just the normal cease fire deal in the Middle East. Israel must cease firing and for its enemies ceasing fire is optional.

In theory negotiations are going on in Egypt for a cease fire which Hamas claims to have accepted and also claims to have rejected.

Hamas has accepted the Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire with Israel, the group said Wednesday evening, after talks in Cairo.

The Hamas delegation was making it way back to Damascus to brief the group's leaders.

Egyptian officials told the Middle East News Agency (MENA) that Hamas had responded positively to the country's efforts to mediate a Gaza cease-fire.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said he would relay Hamas's response to the Egyptian proposal to Israel.

However, Osama Hamdan, the Hamas representative in Lebanon, said that Hamas's position regarding the Egyptian initiative had not changed. He said that despite reports that Hamas had agreed to the cease-fire initiative, there were still a number of differences between Egypt and the Islamist movement that needed to be addressed.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni were meeting in Jerusalem to discuss Israel's response to the initiative.

Also on Wednesday, France's foreign minister said his government was ready to talk to Hamas, if the group renounced violence and recognize Israel.

It will be interesting to see what is in the Egyptian proposal. I think it can be reliably assumed that stopping the rockets is a central element.

And those French. What dreamers. Hamas is dedicated to killing all the Jews in the world. Renouncing violence and recognizing Israel is not in the cards for Hamas.

I wonder how long it will take to complete the cease fire negotiations? The fact that Syria - who in effect speaks for Iran - has caved is significant. A cease fire by Friday is not out of the question. Of course this being the Middle East, negotiations could drag on for another week or more.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Arab Unity

It is looking like Arab unity is taking hold of developments in the Middle East. It appears that the Arabs are united in their disagreements.

Serious differences of opinion between Syria and Egypt are making the process of reaching a Gaza cease-fire agreement difficult. Syria has advised Hamas not to accept Egypt's cease-fire proposal, arguing it is too vague, particularly regarding the issue of Israel's withdrawal from the Strip.

In Syria's opinion, which is coordinated with Iran, the Egyptian proposal may undermine Hamas' position in the Gaza Strip and present Israel with an advantage.

And giving Israel an advantage would be bad. For Hamas and Iran.

And it appears that the Philistines are chasing that chimera of national unity again.

Hamas is demanding a return to the terms of the cease-fire that were reached last June, which bar Israel from attacking the Gaza Strip and demand that the calm be applied in the West Bank after six months. By this, Hamas would show that Israel had not achieved any political gains through its Gaza operation.

The Egyptian initiative, on the other hand, calls for a cease-fire that would take effect within 48-72 hours and would open border crossings to allow humanitarian aid into the Strip.

During the cease-fire, Egypt would hold talks with Israel and Hamas to reach a long-term agreement, and at a later stage would resume the talks between Hamas and Fatah over forming a national unity government.

Hamas is opposed to this proposal because it believes it recognizes Mahmoud Abbas as the president of the Palestinian Authority. His term officially ends Friday.

Syria has urged Hamas to demand that the first stage of a deal include the opening of the Rafah border crossing, a demand that Egypt rejects.

The Egyptians are only willing to open the crossing on the basis of the terms of a 2005 agreement, which requires the presence of Palestinian Authority officials, European Union observers and Israeli cameras.

No matter what agreement is reached, Hamas is going to get the short end of the stick. Iran is out of money and the rest of the Arab world is out of patience. All that is left now is the working out of the surrender terms.

So what is being discussed relative to surrender terms?

The United Nations Security Council on Thursday voted in favor of a resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire the Israel Defense Forces and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The United States abstained from the vote.

On Thursday the head of the Arab League said that key Arab nations and Western powers had reached an agreement on the deal.

Amr Moussa on Thursday told reporters an agreement was reached, but diplomats said the exact wording of the text was being fine-tuned by ministers behind closed doors.

You have to love the UN. We agree. We agree! To what? That hasn't been decided yet. The greatest clown show on earth. Except for the US Congress.

On Thursday the head of the Arab League said that key Arab nations and Western powers had reached an agreement on the deal.

Amr Moussa on Thursday told reporters an agreement was reached, but diplomats said the exact wording of the text was being fine-tuned by ministers behind closed doors.

I suppose they have an agreement in principle. And what is the principle? Let Israel and Hamas fight it out until one or the other gets tired.

"Peace will be made in the region, not in New York, but actions in New York can support the search for peace in the region," a senior British official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

With Palestinian civilian casualties mounting, the Arabs are under intense pressure to get a resolution - and several diplomats said they want it before Friday prayers at mosques in the region.

"We are not going to leave without a vote today," Moussa told reporters. The key elements are the withdrawal (of Israeli forces), cease-fire, the humanitarian situation, the opening of crossings.

But France, which holds the Security Council presidency this month, might want to delay a vote until Friday, diplomats said.

Egypt and Israel hold the keys to Gaza. They at least are in agreement. "We want nothing to do with the rabble in Gaza. The longer the Philistines stay penned in the Gaza cage the better for all concerned." Egypt, like Israel is not happy with their connection to the Gazans.

How about the Gazans? What are they currently after?

In a possible sign Hamas was unwilling to compromise yet, a senior Hamas official in Syria, Mohammed Nazzal, told Syrian TV on Thursday that the group would never surrender and vowed to fight house to house against Israeli troops in Gaza.

A joint statement issued by Palestinian groups based in Syria's capital
Thursday rejected the Egyptian-French initiative, saying it would undermine Gazans' resistance and give Israel a free hand to continue aggression.

Hamas is normally a member of the coalition, but it wasn't clear if it signed the statement. Hamas officials in Syria were not available for comment. Osama Hamdan, the Hamas representative in Lebanon who is close to the group's top leader, said he was not aware of the statement.

Hamas wants a chance to fight house to house where they do best. The Israeli response of course is to lay siege to the major cities and let hunger and thirst do their work for them. That takes a while depending on the amount of stored food and water. Which would argue for another week or two of fighting given that pumped water supplies were cut off at the start of the dust up.

The fact that one top Hamas guy was not willing to sign on to a blood and guts statement may indicate their resolve is weakening. No matter what happens though the Hamas guys can point to one statement or another and say "that was our position all along." Because Arabs never lose wars and they are always right.

Israel Promises To Help

The EU monitors of the Gaza - Egypt border are afraid for their lives.

Fearing for their lives, European Union monitors stationed at the Rafah Crossing that connects the Gaza Strip and Egypt have asked the defense establishment for help in drawing up escape routes from Gaza in the event of an attack on the border terminal, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

The monitors, led by Italian Maj.-Gen. Pietro Pistolese, have raised concerns in recent weeks for their safety following a series of threats to their lives. An Israeli defense official told the Post that several weeks ago a large bomb was discovered on a route used by the monitors to drive through Gaza.

No worries mates. Israel has promised to help. They have accepted the third of three proposals.

The third proposal, which was accepted by the EU monitors, was to make a dash for the Gaza security fence that separates Israel from Gaza, where they would be rescued by the IDF.

"They want to know that we will help them escape if the need arises," the defense official said. "Their concerns are understandable if you take into account the large number of threats they face."

The increasing threats against the monitors have raised concerns in Israel that the EU would refuse to extend the monitors' mandate, leaving the Gaza-Egyptian border completely open. Diplomatic officials in Jerusalem rejected this possibility and said the agreement would be signed in the coming days as planned.

So there you have it. The Italian military is afraid of threats. Not of actual attacks carried out. Just threats. It looks like another case of the West being burdened by the Italians in a war. Winston Churchill said it best when asked about Italy's alliance with the Germans in the WW2 era. "It's only fair. We had to have them in the last war." My first mate is Italian. Wonderful people. However, their fighting spirit is nothing like it was 2,000 years ago. Well, you go to war with the allies you have...

Sandmonkey On Jailed Egyptian Blogger

My favorite Egyptian blogger The Sandmonkey has been blogging about jailed blogger Abdel Kareem Nabil Suleiman.

CAIRO -- An Egyptian court's imprisonment of a blogger last week is another official blow to free speech, according to fellow bloggers and human-rights activists.

"It affects the only space of free speech left in Egypt, which is the Internet and the blogs, and it could possibly hinder what you can write in the future," said a prominent Egyptian who posts in Web logs, or blogs, anonymously under the name Sandmonkey.

An Alexandria court convicted Abdel Kareem Nabil Suleiman, 22, of insulting Islam and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, sentencing him Thursday to four years in prison.

Suleiman, a former student of Al-Azhar University, the Middle East's most respected Sunni religious institution, attacked the university, Muslims and the Egyptian government in his blog.

That is not the worst. In true Soviet style his own father has denounced him and called for his death.

His parents denounced him, demanding that he recant or be executed, one Egyptian newspaper reported.

The court's sentence has shocked the growing Egyptian blogosphere. Its more than 3,000 writers, from all levels of Egyptian society, increasingly have exposed police torture and other government excesses through Web articles and videos. Some post in English, although most -- like Suleiman -- write in Arabic.

"These charges are indefinable -- you can't define insulting the president, you can't define the space for religion," said Sandmonkey. "There are no fixed parameters for that."

"What really upsets me is ... that he has no sympathy coming from the Egyptian street, mainly for what he said about Islam and religion," said another blogger who posts under the name Big Pharaoh. "This is really scary. It could start with Abdel Kareem and it could go to other areas. In the future, maybe anyone who writes about politics will get arrested."

Big Pharaoh comments on the sentence - scroll down.

Here are a few Sandmonkey posts on the subject.
Abdel Karim family disowns him
Abdel Karim gets sentenced
My PJM piece on Abdel Karim is up
Proxy Blogging
Leave Egypt, to where exactly?
Follow Up

H/T Israpundit

Egyptian Bloggers Get Results

The Sandmonkey has a great post up on how persistient blogging can bring a news story from "didn't happen" to front page news. The story is about a mob gone wild and police doing nothing.

The bloggers available downtown documented the whole thing, and provided pictures of it as well. Reading their accounts I can't help by feel my heart being torn on what the people of the country has turned to. The one that broke my heart the most was Sharqawi's account (remember, he is the guy who got sexually assaulted by the police during interrogation ) and how it suddenly danwed at him that what happend to him wasn't an isolated incident. That The Police forces didn't came from another planet, that they were born and raised egyptians, amongst the egyptian people, the same egyptian people who have produced those mobs who found it in their right to attack girls in middle of crowded downtown for 5 houres under the police's watchdul eyes. The ones who approached the police asking them to do something were told : "what do you want us to do? It's Eid. Happy Eid to you too!" The same response was given to women who went to the police stations to report the incidents. The police refused to do their jobs and take a report, because it would probably reflect badly on their downtown peers. Some people were surprised at the Police's reaction, but the majoirty of us weren't. Those are the same police officers who facilitated the assaults on women last year during the referendum. This is business as usual for them.

What was unusual was the silence of the press. Nobody was mentioning it. Nobody was bringing it up. It seemed like there was some consensus of just not reporting it and maybe it will just go away. What at first seemed like a conspiracy got later on confirmed by my sources in the news media. Al Jazeera had taped the incidents but were forbidden to air it at the request of the egyptian authorities. The editor at the leading english-speaking newspaper refused to touch it with a 6 foot pole. This was going to be one of those incidents that only the blogsphere would talk about, while the mainstream media ignored.

Until Nawarah Negm blew the whole thing wide open on live television on the Dream Channel.

She was brought in as a writer to be part of a fluffy segment on Mona Al Shazly show talking about the Ramadan TV shows, and the girl's first response to the question was: "What Television shows do you want to discuss, when egyptian girls are assaulted on the streets of Cairo while the police watched and did nothing?" When Mona counterd that she never heard of it before, Nawarah told her all about it, in details and how it's all over the internet.

All of Egypt saw that. The cat was out of the bag. A cover-up was no longer feasiable.

The Sandmonkey has much more and copious links. GRTWT.

Clayton Cramer has some thoughts: Is There Something Broken in Islam?