Nuclear Material Found Entering The Port Of San Diego?

Over at Classical Values Frank in the comments to ARMZ Buys Wyoming Uranium Mines said that there are nuclear weapons found entering the port of San Diego. Well to say the least I was sceptical (love the Brit spelling). So I started checking for a reputable source. And it depresses me to no end to say I found one.

San Diego Channel 10 News - Interview Raises Questions Over Weapons Of Mass Effect In SD. Excerpted from the report:

In San Diego, every cargo container is driven through a radiation detector before leaving San Diego's seaport.

"So, specifically, you're looking for the dirty bomb? You're looking for the nuclear device?" asked Blacher.

"Correct. Weapons of mass effect," Hallor said.

"You ever found one?" asked Blacher.

"Not at this location," Hallor said.

"But they have found them?" asked Blacher.

"Yes," said Hallor.

"You never found one in San Diego though?" Blacher asked.

"I would say at the port of San Diego we have not," Hallor said.

So nothing in San Diego but maybe elsewhere. And not necessarily a bomb. It may have been a conventional explosive device surrounded by radioactive material. The purpose may not have been to spread destruction but rather to spread panic. For that purpose ordinary mined uranium or even depleted uranium would do. The general population is scared of anything radioactive even if the level of radioactivity is small.

We have video of the interview and follow-up:



There is more video here. And information and speculation here.

If this don't get your heebies jeeben I don't know what will. I wish McCain had won the last election. We could sure use a guy with military experience at the helm in times like these.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

ARMZ Buys Wyoming Uranium Mines

That is correct. A Russian company named ARMZ has bought two uranium mines in Wyoming.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved the license transfer of two Wyoming mines to a Russian company, despite concerns over national security raised by local and national government officials including senior House Republicans.

From the Telegram:

Two uranium mines in Wyoming are on their way to control by a Russian company now that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved transferring the mines’ licenses.

The NRC last week approved the license transfer to a Russian company known as ARMZ which expects to obtain a controlling interest in Canadian-owned Uranium One by year’s end. Uranium One holds the licenses for a proposed uranium mine and an existing uranium mine in northeast Wyoming.

The approval comes despite concerns from local and national lawmakers. Bother groups worry that Wyoming’s uranium could in theory go overseas and serve against U.S. interests.

Clever name ARMZ. Those Russians sure do have a sense of humor. The whole deal kind of makes me think of the scrap iron deal with Japan pre-WW2.

Of course once the war started we sent Japan more scrap iron.

Get the poster: Salvage Scrap To Blast the Jap
I wonder if we should start collecting scrap uranium. Just in case.

H/T Bunkerville who also discusses the sale of two BP refineries.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Outstanding Comment

A most interesting comment I found at Wretchard's. More like vitriolic rant actually.

Joe Hill:

The American people aren’t all that smart and they aren’t all that interested either most the time, but once you get their attention and they actually bear down and concentrate on the problem at hand for a couple of minutes and make a decision it is political suicide to buck them. This health care bill is a done deal. It is as done as this mornings coffee that has been sitting on the burner all day.

The people thought about it and decided it sucks. If Massachusetts won’t buy it no one will. Obama is flogging a dead horse here and it is political suicide. All anyone wants to know is how are you going to get the economy going, create jobs, and get the deficit down… oh yeah and we don’t want no stinking carpet kissing camel jockeys blowing stuff up. We don’t care if you try him or just chain him up to a pickup truck and drag him for a few miles after waterboarding him, his cousin, his cousine;s mothers pet cat and three random totally innocent Islamic “moderates”. Just do it in a hurry. Do it quietly. Do it out of sight and don’t tell us about it – or anyone else for that matter.

Kill or enemies and keep the economy humming. It is as simple as that and he has about another three months to convince the country he is up to the job or he is going to have to double the guard at the White House gate.

The debt is unsustainable. We have lost 3 or 4 million jobs in the last year. The stock market is about to take another dive. Iran is developing a bomb. China’s economy is a house of cards. The Indians and illegals are taking all our jobs and depressing wages, and “it is Bush’s fault” doesn’t cut it any more. We fired that guy and hired Mr Hopey Changey to fix things and all they are doing is getting worse. On top of everything else we are up to our eyeballs in snow.

Feb 8, 2010 - 11:53 pm

I'd say Mr. Obama has done excellent work. In just over a year he has convinced about half the country he is not up for the job. An outstanding accomplishment rarely exceeded by any President.

Where Science Gets Down To Business

To remind you of Chicago Pile-1.

Chicago Pile-1 (CP-1) was the world's first artificial nuclear reactor. CP-1 was built on a racquets court, under the abandoned west stands of the original Alonzo Stagg Field stadium, at the University of Chicago. The first artificial, self-sustaining, nuclear chain reaction was initiated within CP-1, on December 2, 1942.

I used to play tennis at the place where the racquets courts used to be. That would have been in 1962. There was a nice plaque commemorating the event attached to the tennis court fences. It is now suitably mounted on a small monument about 100 ft South of where the tennis courts used to be.

H/T Chicago Boyz

Cross Posted at Classical Values

We Had Better Get A Move On

There is a very interesting discussion of the nuclear proliferation aspects of the
Bussard Fusion Reactor going on at Talk.Polywell. Here is what I think needs to be done:

We need to build Bussard Reactor neutron generators as soon as possible to test out possible proliferation aspects - like trying to make Plutonium - so we can figure out the best ways to control the proliferation problem.

The cat is out of the bag. We better start looking for a leash.

The idea was suggested to me by my friend Eric of Classical Values.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Munich Is In Germany

Iran's top security guy will be there in a few days as well.

Iran's top security official, Ali Larijani, said Wednesday he would hold negotiations with Western officials over the country's controversial nuclear program during a security conference in Germany this weekend.

His comments suggested Iran may be on a new diplomatic offensive in efforts to stave off sterner measures from the UN Security Council, should it fail to meet a 60-day deadline to suspend uranium enrichment that was imposed Dec. 23.

Larijani, who will for the first time head the Teheran delegation to the Feb. 9-11 gathering in Munich, Germany, unlike earlier gatherings that were attended by lower level Iranian officials, sidestepped questions whether those talks would directly involve US representatives.

One of two things is possible here. Either he is in a big hurry to make a deal or he likes the symbolism.

Some Heavy News

Iran is making progress with a heavy water moderated nuclear plant.

TEHRAN (Reuters) -
Iran has completed a new phase in its Arak heavy-water reactor plant, a presidential official said on Saturday, referring to part of Iran's atomic program which the West fears is aimed at producing bombs.

The official said President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would give a speech later in the day "announcing that the heavy-water project has become operational."

Iran is building a heavy-water nuclear reactor at Arak, 120 miles southwest of the capital Tehran. The plant's plutonium by-product could be used to make atomic warheads.

Heavy water is water made with heavy hydrogen. Normal hydrogen has one proton in its nucleus. Heavy hydrogen has one proton and one neutron.

In a nuclear reactor a moderator slows down neutrons to make them easier for U235 and U238 to capture. When the U235 captures a neutron it fissions releasing energy. U238 when it captures a neutron converts to U239 which changes to Pu239 by emitting an electron. Pu239 in high enough concentration is bomb making material. It also represents 30% of the active fuel in an operating reactor.

Now why use heavy water instead of normal water which is used in most US reactors? Normal or light water reactors require enriched uranium to produce enough neutrons to function. Heavy water absorbs 600 times fewer neutrons per collision than light water. Although normal water doesn't absorb many neutrons it is still enough to require enriched fuel. A heavy water plant can operate on natural uranium containing only .7% U235.

This University of California, Berkeley site has the basics about the different reactor designs.

The advantage of a heavy water plant for Iran is that it can save its enriched uranium for a U235 type bomb. Also plutonium production is not dependent on the enrichment program so the two programs can be run in parallel.

Update: 26 Aug '06 2228z

Captain's Quarters discusses the issue at greater length with more politics and fewer technical details. Comes to similar conclusion.

22 August

The President of Iran, who I refer to as Ahmadinnerjacket, has been going on for months now with dire threats to Israel and warnings of a special surprise on 22 August of this year. He promises to light up the night sky over Israel. I wonder what the Iranians have in mind?

These threats have reader Kelly Brown worried. She has asked me a number of questions which I will try to answer.

Neither the Norks nor the Iranians have intercontinental missiles capable of delivering a nuke of Iranian design (unless the Iranians have perfected a plutonium bomb). The missiles they have are 3,000 mi max. range or less. They are not very accurate either.

These rockets are fear weapons not militarily useful (they can't hit designated targets within the lethal range of the war heads - even with a nuclear warhead).

If the missiles spewed a bunch of lethal gas or radioactive material over a city that is not very dangerous. If spewed over a neighborhood its danger is limited. If confined to a city block a few hundred people are at risk.

So keep your fears within rational bounds.

Suppose the Iranian missiles are pretty good and have an accuracy of .5% (without stelar or GPS course correction) with just plain old inertial navigation. The range from Iran to Israel is about 1,000 miles. That means an error of about 5 miles. It makes a big difference if you hit on the edge of a city or in the center. Even with a nuke.

So what kind of attack with a nuke would be useful with that kind of accuracy?

An emp attack. It destroys electronics but not people.

A small nuke (10kt to 100kt) in the center of a city (detonated around 2,000 feet above it) would kill 50,000 to 200,000. Too high or too low and the death toll goes down.

How accurate does the timing need to be for a missile traveling at 2,000 mph? Say we allow +/- 1,000 ft. At 2,000 mph the missile is traveling at about 3,000 ft per second. That means detonation within 1/3 of a second - not too bad if the missile knows exactly where it is at or it has some kind of height above ground radar. Well a ballistic missile at the end of a 1,000 mile run has no idea of where it is at within the required accuracy. So that won't work. So how about a height above ground radar? Could work. But it adds another complication. Another point of failure. Could the Iranians build and test and certify that the electronics would be 99.99% reliable? Since a dud is of no use even as a terror weapon. Difficult to do. How do I know? Well I have assisted in building just such an item.

If the Iranians were any good at building such devices they would be using them on the larger missiles they shoot into Israel. I have seen no evidence of such an item.

The way to go for Iran is an air burst 1 to 10 miles in the air to create an emp pulse.

Such an attack is an act of war and would get Israeli and American retaliation.

Plus to be a significant emp attack you would need at minimum a 100kt warhead. Likely the Iranian war head (even if it was a stolen Russian warhead) is likely to be 1/10th that size. So I would say it was unlikely. Not impossible.

In addition such an attack would hurt Syria (maybe that is why they are opening their shelters) and Jordan.

Again, it would be very annoying but not dangerous. At worst you might lose 1/3 of the electronics in proximity to the blast. The military of course would lose very little eqpt. It is designed to withstand such effects.

So what about a nuclear or terrorist attack on a nuke plant designed to cause a meltdown? I'm a former Naval Nuke. In America, a reactor meltdown like Chernobyl is very difficult. In fact Chernobyl was difficult. They had to disconnect a safety system and seriously violate procedures to get a meltdown. American reactors unlike Russian models have containment buildings designed to handle pressure differences on the order of 8X atmospheric pressure. They can withstand a direct hit from a jumbo jet. A terrorist attack or even nuking a plant (the nuke would have to land on top of the containment vessel) probably couldn't cause a melt down.

As to fears of death. We are all front line troops in this war.

read this: Sacrifices.

Some of us may have to die to defeat this enemy. Make up your mind and be ready to do your part.

So what do I expect? A small nuclear explosion done as a threat and a warning.

Well we have 11 days to go. I have to tell you. If I start thinking about this too much my fears start to rise. What can an individual do? Other than being prepared to do your best and get your survival kit together. Not much.

Some resources:

Iraq the Model asks: Is Hezbollah launching Iran's Armageddon?

Some people are wondering if the plan to blow up the airplanes was set for 22 August? Could be. The initial step was to be a dry run. Then they have to return to the starting point. Get ready then do it for real. It is 11 days to the 22nd. For the record the plan I'm refering to was the one busted on August 10th.

Iran's Day of Terror?

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has frustrated Western officials by refusing to reply to their offer of various incentives in exchange for Iran’s discarding its nuclear program until August 22. The Western governments had asked Ahmadinejad to reply by June 29; why would Tehran need two extra months?

Farid Ghadry, the president of the Reform Party of Syria, has offered a provocative explanation for this delay. He asserts that the Supreme National Security Council of Iran chose the August 22 date “for a very precise reason. August 21, 2006 (Rajab 27, 1427) is known in the Islamic calendar as the Night of the Sira’a and Miira’aj, the night Prophet Mohammed (saas) ascended to heaven from the Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on a Bourak (Half animal, half man), while a great light lit-up the night sky, and visited Heaven and Hell also Beit al-Saada and Beit al-Shaqaa (House of Happiness and House of Misery) and then descended back to Mecca.…”

The Night Journey, or Miraj, is central to Islam’s claim to Jerusalem as an Islamic holy city. According to Islamic tradition, Muhammad was carried on a Buraq, a miraculous horse with a human head, from Mecca to Jerusalem, where he ascended into heaven and met the other prophets.

Interesting.

Bernard Lewis - Does Iran have something in store?

It seems increasingly likely that the Iranians either have or very soon will have nuclear weapons at their disposal, thanks to their own researches (which began some 15 years ago), to some of their obliging neighbors, and to the ever-helpful rulers of North Korea. The language used by Iranian President Ahmadinejad would seem to indicate the reality and indeed the imminence of this threat.

Would the same constraints, the same fear of mutual assured destruction, restrain a nuclear-armed Iran from using such weapons against the U.S. or against Israel?

The short answer? No.

Armageddon Cocktail Hour

In a keynote speech on Wednesday to senior clerics, Ahmadinejad spoke of his strong belief in the second coming of Shi’ite Muslims’ “hidden” 12th Imam.

According to Shi’ite Muslim teaching, Abul-Qassem Mohammad, the 12th leader whom Shi’ites consider descended from the Prophet Mohammed, disappeared in 941 but will return at the end of time to lead an era of Islamic justice.

“Our revolution’s main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi,” Ahmadinejad said in the speech to Friday Prayers leaders from across the country.

“Therefore, Iran should become a powerful, developed and model Islamic society.”

“Today, we should define our economic, cultural and political policies based on the policy of Imam Mahdi’s return. We should avoid copying the West’s policies and systems,” he added, newspapers and local news agencies reported.

Well if you want to get more depressed Google - August 22 Iran.

These are not happy times. May they lead to better days.

Joining the Club

There has been an interesting discussion going on over at LGF about nuke weapons. The discussion was prompted by this Tech Central Station article.

My comments:

I love nuke stuff. So much so that I was a Naval Nuke. A rod yanker so to speak.

About five or eight years ago we shipped 20 TONS of plutonium to Japan. In theory the Japanese were going to "dispose" of it in a specially designed reactor. Right.

BTW that is enough Pu for at minimum 1,000 weapons. (more like 8,000 actually)

So I'd add Japan to the nuclear club for the same reason Israel is in the club. Material and know how.

The #1 reason for China to put the brakes on the Norks is the knowledge that the Japanese are an unannounced nuclear power.

It seems to me that the Nork's testing of rockets by sending them in the direction of Japan is very unwise. For the Norks.

Europe has been sending nuclear material to Japan for some time. Greenpeace made their usual stink about the danger. If they only knew.

You can't ship big chunks (not over a pound likely per container). The container needs to be large enough and strong enough to keep it away from other chunks despite colision, fire, and a flooding hold. And that is just the obvious stuff.

Here is an article on the shipments from 1999. Straight from the horses mouth Greenpeace.

Weapns grade plutonium shipments to Japan.

And it was 40 tons total not twenty. i.e. Japan is now a world class nuclear power with a weapons capability second only to the USA.

The initial shipment was 450 kg said to be enough for 50 bombs. (more like 200 if well designed and fusion boosted)

========

The US Japanese nuclear co-operation goes back further than I thought. It could have been policy since Regan.

The U.S.-Japan agreement provides for the shipment of plutonium extracted from spent fuel rods removed from Japanese commercial reactors. The origin of the fuel rods is the United States. The agreement requires Japan to notify the United States State Department before each transfer of plutonium and to provide the United States with a transportation plan that includes a "threat assessment and a contingency plan."

American Plutonium shipments to Japan

The General Accounting Office, Congress' auditor, has weighed in with its report on the first shipment of plutonium to Japan made under the 1988 Agreement for Cooperation Between the United States and Japan Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. Senator John Glenn, chairman of the Governmental Affairs Committee, asked the GAO to prepare the report, which was released in June 1993.

You have to scroll about half way down the page for the Japan stuff.

Interestingly enough South Korea is doing the reprocessing.

No wonder they do not see the Northern Nuke as such a threat. That would explain a lot.

Looks to me like if you are a reliable ally America will provide nuclear materials.

My guess is that all of the major Asian powers in the American orbit are nuclear armed.

That seems to be policy.

=============================

So how hard is it to design and build a weapon?

My understanding of modern plutonium based nuclear weapons is that they are all thermonuclear.

Our initial designs were developed with computers that had less power than a TRS-80. The lowest cost desktop machine of today is at minimum 1,000 times as powerful. Which says that the computations that would take a year in 1950 could be done in 8 hours or less today. And of course if you wanted to do paper tests faster of different designs just buy more computers.

FabioC adds a link to a modern nuke weapon with general design outlines, history, and lots of general guidelines for bomb design. More is easily found on the www. And there are links galore at the site.

How hard is it to design and build a nuke? You give me the Pu (say a couple of ounces accurately machined). 1,000 or 2,000 smoke detectors (to make a neutron source).

A NC machine tool capable of holding .0001" tolerance over a 5" distance (not too exotic these days). An interferometer based measuring tool.

Some test eqpt. o-scopes capable of recording around 1E9 samples a second ( again not too exotic these days).

Some test eqpt. (x-ray detectors, neutron dectectors etc)

I could work out all the required constants.

From there I buy an optics and a mechanical dynamics program and I'm off and running.

With really top notch people (don't forget this stuff was originally done with slide rules, IBM punch card machines capable of about ten calculations a second, and vacuum tubes. Feynman ran the IBM machine. It is a fascinating story.) I could get by with an eqpt budget of $20 to $40 million. Peanuts really.

The codes even done in Basic ought not be too hard. Or if you want to get really fancy Mathematica. Some one who understood x-ray grazing optics optics, stress/strain curves, partial differentials and cubic splines ought to do the trick. You go to a university and find the best politically motivated engineers and mathematicians. A team of five ought to be more than adequate. Did I mention that you need an explosive forming expert?

The reason such a big team was needed for the first one was the uncertainty and the lack of off the shelf eqpt. Everything was custom. Now a days all you pay for is the marginal cost. The R&D has already been done.

Now my training was in reactors. Weapons were mentioned in passing only from the standpoint of critical mass. But almost any engineer from open sources could figure out the requirements. Or just go to any good history of Los Alamos. (I have none to suggest).