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In Obama Pushes Superdelegates to Declare Support, Chris Cillizza accurately notes what I have called Superdelegate Anarchy — Obama’s month-old strategy to equal his opponent’s superdelegates. But Chris concludes that, even with the success of this strategy, there is a way to keep things alive until the Convention.

Specifically his FIX blog post states:

Clinton will win enough states — Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, Puerto Rico and, potentially, Indiana — to keep her in the game.

Here are my pre-Super Tuesday predictions for these states, based on polling at that time and on the transfer of 10 point to Obama in each of the states, to reflect the actual margin of victory in South Carolina. Sounds complex, but it has worked reasonably well so far. These are for delegate splits but also reflect who would win the state.

Tuesday, April 22

Pennsylvania 188 Obama 107 Clinton 81

Tuesday, May 6

Indiana 84 Obama 50 Clinton 34

Tuesday, May 13

West Virginia 39 Obama 20 Clinton 19

Tuesday, May 20

Kentucky 60 Obama 33 Clinton 27

Saturday, June 7

Puerto Rico 63 Obama 27 Clinton 36

I have Obama winning all these contests save Puerto Rico. To establish some creds, I had Clinton winning Texas, a fact that now appears to be debateable since Barack now has the most delegates. The only major defeats I have had were California and Ohio — but neither of these had the momentum going in that these latter contests will have. And the latest PPP poll in North Carolina speaks well of Obama’s growing power with every demographic.

All this is simply to underline that there is a good reason for Obama’s “magnanimity” toward his opponent. He knows she won’t leave and he also knows his chances are considerably better than even of ending up ahead of where he is now, relatively speaking, in elected delegates.

To put is succinctly, she will not be in the game after the primaries are over. The only question is whether she will have to bow out sooner. I would imagine, if my PA prediction is correct, that the answer is Yes.

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Public Policy Polling is the best of them all for my money. Even when they go against what I hope for, they have proved right. Link directly to PPP for full details. They’ve released good news for Barack Obama in North Carolina. Including encouraging results from those who have never voted in primaries before.

Results of the latest poll are recounted in the release below.

Democratic Tracking Poll: President

Barack Obama 54
Hillary Clinton 36

Obama has retained a large lead in the state after a week in which both candidates made several appearances.

His greatest strength is coming from voters who have a history of voting in general elections but not in primaries. With that group he has a 60-32 advantage. Bringing more folks into the political process has been one of the central successes of the Obama campaign, and it appears he’s doing that in North Carolina.

Among voters who have a history of voting in primaries the race is much closer, with Obama sporting a 49-40 lead.

Obama now leads in every part of the state except the Mountains, which has very few black voters. He has an advantage across every age group, and is up by double digits with both men and women. He is also doing respectable with the white vote, where he has 36%, and has his customary large lead with black voters (81-11).

Click here for all PPP data.

Obama at Penn. State Rally

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The Superdelegate Anarchy strategy looks to be continuing with at least three superdelegates on deck and a possible seven-superdelegate windfall from North Carolina. The Wall Street Journal has the story.

Obama’s gracious she-can-stay-as-long-as-she-wants and his opponent’s ominous threats to create Convention conflict are part of the mix. The result is a heady broth that looks to be a momentum builder. I also have unconfirmed rumors of odd fundraising and money issues on the opponent’s side. These I’ll follow up. The WSJ piece is quoted in part below:

Slowly but steadily, a string of Democratic Party figures is taking Barack Obama’s side in the presidential nominating race and raising the pressure on Hillary Clinton to give up.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota is expected to endorse Sen. Obama Monday, according to a Democrat familiar with her plans. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s seven Democratic House members are poised to endorse Sen. Obama as a group — just one has so far — before that state’s May 6 primary, several Democrats say.

Helping to drive the endorsements is a fear that the Obama-Clinton contest has grown toxic and threatens the Democratic Party’s chances against Republican John McCain in the fall.

Sen. Clinton rejects that view. Over the weekend, she reiterated her intent to stay in the race beyond the last contest in early June — and all the way to the party’s convention in Denver, if necessary.

“There are some folks saying we ought to stop these elections,” she said Saturday in Indiana, which also has a May 6 primary. “I didn’t think we believed that in America. I thought we of all people knew how important it was to give everyone a chance to have their voices heard and their votes counted.”

Sen. Obama told reporters, “My attitude is that Sen. Clinton can run as long as she wants.” …

The expected move by Minnesota’s Sen. Klobuchar follows Friday’s endorsement of Sen. Obama by Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, which holds its primary April 22.

Both senators had planned to remain neutral, according to party officials, but decided to weigh in as the Democrats’ campaign became more negative and Sen. McCain was free to exploit the confusion looking to the November election.

One North Carolinian confirmed that at least several of the state’s House members would go public in favor of Sen. Obama before long. Meanwhile, elected officials in other states with upcoming contests, including Indiana, Montana and Oregon, are weighing whether to endorse Sen. Obama.

What makes such endorsements significant is that they’re from superdelegates. These delegates — members of Congress, governors and other party officials — can vote for whomever they want at the Democratic convention in August. Sen. Obama has a slight lead over Sen. Clinton in the pledged-delegate count — the delegates won during primaries and caucuses — but neither can amass enough pledged delegates for a majority. That makes the vote of the superdelegates decisive.
SOURCE

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