May 21, 2008
Yeah….He won Oregon…Yadda. So what. Get a load of this:
Yesterday, Sen. Barack Obama had a 63.2% probability of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election held now. Today there were three new relevant head-to-head poll released for this race.
So, now, after 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 5,508 times (plus the 300 ties), and McCain wins 4,192 times. Obama has a 58.1% (55.1% plus 3% for ties) probability of winning and McCain has a 41.9% probability of winning. Obama has slipped a bit against McCain, but maintains an “uncomfortable” lead.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Not so bad you say?
Now look at this:
Tuesday, May 20, 2008 at 9:47 pm
| Clinton |
McCain |
| 89.7% probability of winning |
10.2% probability of winning |
| Mean of 295 electoral votes |
Mean of 243 electoral votes |
Yesterday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 89.3% probability of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election held now. Today there was a single new relevant head-to-head poll released for this race.
Today, after 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 8,969 times (plus she gets the 10 ties), and McCain wins 1,021 times. Clinton has a 89.8% probability of winning a general election held now, and McCain has a 10.2% probability of winning. Clinton edges forward, ever so slightly.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Okay so I’m glad I’m not a SuperDelegate….but, and I’m talkin’ to those of your out there who are adamant about not letting McSame get elected, if you are serious about that you’d better put down the damn Kool-Aid ’cause no amount of ‘make nice’ by Barkey is gonna change this dynamic. Barry’s been going downhill since Texas and he ain’t comin’ back. Yeah, McSame has said a lot of stupid shit…news flash so has Barkey. Clinton, not so much she’s been astute enough to keep her mouth shut. And all this Monte Carloing is before most Americans really now the Rezko to Auchi toss much less the latest Barky food for ReThug attack ads.
What?
What’s Ol’ Barky done now?
Uh….it’s Michelle this time…and it’s not gonna be pretty if this post by Larry Johnson is accurate.
And he’s been pretty much Wright so far about Barkey.
What to do?
Email yer SDs and tell ‘me you really, really really don’t want this to happen:
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Posted by A.Citizen
March 24, 2008
flyerhawk got a little aggravated and had this to say today:
I am utterly sick of hearing how the Democrats are going to lose in November.
If the Democrats lose in November they should be disbanded as a party and a new party should be formed. A party that isn’t determined to shoot itself in the groin rather than succeed.
Short of finding pictures of McCain with an Al Qaeda prostitute, what else exactly do the Democrats needs to convince themselves that they have all the advantage? Economy is in the toilet, war is unpopular and going nowhere, Bush has record low approval ratings while McCain is in full liplock with the guy, the world is begging for a Democrat to resurrect some sort of sane foreign policy. WHAT MORE DO WE NEED?
The only way that either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama don’t win in November is if emocrats turn their back on the party because they are pouting about their candidate losing. I say this with the full understanding that there is a reasonable chance of Hillary being the nominee. I may not be enamored of her but I will be voting for her NO MATTER WHAT!
Country over politics, people! Whatever virtues John McCain may have once had, have been coopted by his willingness to kowtow to the extreme Right that believes that the best solution to the Middle East is killing more Muslims, that the problem with Vietnam was that we didn’t kill ENOUGH Vietnamese, and that turning our enemies into glass is preferable to ever accepting even the slightest setback in our foreign policy objectives.
John McCain is NOT preferable to Barack Obama. John McCain is NOT preferable to Hillary Clinton. Not in any way. His LIBERAL positions are well to the right of both candidates. His pandering positions are downright frightening. He will hand off economic policy to guys that will make us wish for the days of Jude Wanniski.
I understand that politics are a passionate business. But don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. Your rights and the human rights of people around the world depend on that.
This ends my open thread rant.
I do agree with him absolutely, and more than that I have a solution to the big problem facing the Democratic Party at this juncture. Polls show the party split deeply enough that McSame could be a winner in November. Polls also show that large percentages of those who support Clinton will not support Obama and vice a versa. Further, the coattail theory Obama espouses is out the damn window.
Here’s my solution:
John Edwards for President.
At the time he left the race and the pollsters dropped him he was whippin’ McSame.
He had not alienated either Sister Beezlebub’s nor Senator SnakeOil’s supporters by what small amount of criticism he’d directed the candidates way.
He’s polls strong in the South. That’s a great advantage to have for a Democrat.
But most of all….
He an unite the party behind a populist platform and initiate the ‘transforming’ election the idiot Boys on the Blogz are always whining about.
I hereby declare the Bear Republican Action Group the kickoff site for:
Edwards for a Progressive President.
Here’s a nice poll for you to vote in. Unlike the frikin’ Committee of Three we practice our democracy here….and with a gotdamned small ‘d’ Kos.
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Posted by A.Citizen
January 26, 2008
Is that so? Well, maybe you’d better take the quiz. Some folks are quite surprised at how they ‘Score’.
Clik right here…………..
Good luck and be truthful now!
Here’s a little something on Stemijzer. It’s Dutch for one thing!
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Posted by A.Citizen
January 26, 2008
Here’s the money quote from today’s Op-Ed:
‘The Senate (reportedly still under Democratic control) seems determined to help President Bush violate Americans’ civil liberties and undermine the constitutional separation of powers. Majority Leader Harry Reid is supporting White House-backed legislation that would expand the administration’s ability to spy on Americans without court supervision and ensure that the country never learns the full extent of Mr. Bush’s illegal wiretapping program.’
Meanwhile Senators Cackle and Compromise have nothing much to say and don’t seem to be planning to be in the Senate on Monday. Busy ya know….
Here’s John Edwards:
‘When it comes to protecting the rule of law, words are not enough. We need action.
It’s wrong for your government to spy on you. That’s why I’m asking you to join me today in calling on Senate Democrats to filibuster revisions to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) that would give “retroactive immunity” to the giant telecom companies for their role in aiding George W. Bush’s illegal eavesdropping on American citizens.
The Senate is debating this issue right now — which is why we must act right now. You can find your Senators’ phone numbers here or call the Senate Switchboard at 1-(202)-224-3121.
Granting retroactive immunity is wrong. It will let corporate law-breakers off the hook. It will hamstring efforts to learn the truth about Bush’s illegal spying program. And it will flip on its head a core principle that has guided our nation since our founding: the belief that no one, no matter how well connected or what office they hold, is above the law.
But in Washington today, the telecom lobbyists have launched a full-court press for retroactive immunity. George Bush and Dick Cheney are doing everything in their power to ensure it passes. And too many Senate Democrats are ready to give the lobbyists and the Bush administration exactly what they want.
Please join me in calling on every Senate Democrat to do everything in their power — including joining Senator Dodd’s efforts to filibuster this legislation — to stop retroactive immunity and stand up for the rule of law. The Constitution should not be for sale at any price.
Thank you for taking action.’
John Edwards
January 24, 2008
Fire up those phones folks. Last week you crashed the Obama and Clinton campaign’s servers on this issue can you do less than bring Congress’s phone system to a halt?
DFA has a handy-dandy linky you can use to pressure Senators Cackle and Compromise see it here in this OrangeLand Diary by Charles Chamberlain
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Posted by A.Citizen
January 26, 2008
Friends:
This a last minute invite and get together, we expect a great turn out! I have been busy getting this event organized with my colleagues from our Drinking Liberally cohort in Oakland.
I spoke to many of you early in the week about a public open forum Drinking Liberally is holding, hosted by the owner of the Grand Lake theater at his site in Alameda, Auctions By the Bay. It should be exciting and citizens have shown interest in doing a discussion and open forum studying the potential candidates for the Democratic Nomination. There are still so many undecided voters.
We at Drinking Liberally, Oakland in the grip of the excitement of the first CA primary which will have an actual effect on the national race are putting together a special event for all progressives who would like to take part. It will be an open forum where you the citizen will be able to discuss the issues of the day and have a chance to get some feedback on your questions from staff members of the three leaders Obama, Clinton and Edwards.
The format will be to ask the audience 3 questions, right now from initial discovery it looks like those questions for Oaklanders are around: The Economy, Health Care, and an exit strategy in Iraq and on the Environmental strategies of each candidate’s platform.
The idea is to facilitate questions and answers in a way the truly pulls forward the issues, and we hope to send a strong message to each candidate what the people of the East Bay would like to hear from their candidate. Much of the discussion I hope will lean toward the mechanisms to make make each platform come alive during their future presidency.
Super Tuesday is upon us!
The Citizen’s Forum on The California Primary in the Democratic Party will be on:
January 29th, 2008
at
Auctions by the Bay
clik here for directions
or
http://drinkingliberally.org/blogs/oakland/archives/2008/01/announcing_the_cit.html
Doors open at 6:00 pm
I hope to see you there!
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Posted by A.Citizen
January 25, 2008
Now that would not be hard, on the face of it….heh…heh…., and as all know I’m not a fan of Senator ‘SellOut’ much but the post from mcjoan, teh fabulous mcjoan, of dKos
FISA: Reid pushes back!
Give even me pause for thought. Stay tuned for as you can see this thing ain’t over yet.
Why folks would rather follow baseball than politics, which really does affect their lives, beats me.
This is totally absorbing.
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Posted by A.Citizen
January 22, 2008
Haven’t posted in while, Brain Food with Mark Schapiro was a very big success where it matters…in folks heads and I will do a separate post on that soon. If you missed it..for shame!
I might not have posted this but I’ve certainly told everyone I’ve met in meatspace that this post about Senator Dodd’s call for help against ‘SellOut’ Reid and the rest of the corrupt sleaze who have appointed themselves, using that loudest of all arguments money, the Dem Caucus leadership in Congress. Specifically this post engendered the largest response by a factor of ten that I, or anyone else on this blog, have ever received. Most comments also or pretty close anyway. Now much as I might like to think that this response was due to my amazing blogging skills….
I know that’s not the truth of the matter. The truth is that you are sick and tired of corrupt Dems selling out to Bush and his backers. You are absolutely mad as hell that the ‘Decider’ and the Fascist Goons he’s installed throughout the government feel not only free to wiretap you, your kids, your parents and your friends but they want to deny you any opportunity to seek justice in court against the Telephone Companies! And they want make sure that not only will it be against the law to sue these corporate fascists for past violations of your rights but the intent is to ‘immunize’ these criminal scum from future acts. And so you responded and the cowards in the Senate led by Reid caved. With Senator Dodd on the floor looking him in the eye with over 500,000, yeah that’s half a freakin’ million emails regular_guy, piling up in Dodd’s office in one day Senator ‘Fighting’ ‘Four-Flush’ Reid hesitated and then with the cries of fear from his caucus driving him to show his yellow streak….He caved.
But now, once again compelled by his corrupt acceptance of TelCo cash and the promise of fearful retribution if he does not act toe save their bacon Reid is pushing for Telco Immunity. Something that the Congress of the United State, as Senator Ted Kennedy has pointed out, has never granted any one.
Dodd in back from his campaign and has vowed to filibuster.
Ah! Glorious Word, Filibuster! Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. Yay!
But my fellow citizens we must be ready to fight as we never have before. We must hammer this idea into such uselessness that it will be beyond anyone’s consideration for a generation. And we can do this.
The ineffable Jane at FDL has put out the call. And clever tactician that she is she’s trying for a two-fer. Many in the ‘sphere asked, begged and pleaded with Senator’s Clinton and Obama to leave the campaign trail and stand by their ‘good colleague’ Senator Dodd.
They both declined…well, actually they never responded to said request.
I’ll have more to say about Senators TweedleDee and TweedleDumber in another post but this lack of action on an issue Iknow from you, your response, is important to you and does, I believe, bring into doubt their fitness for the Presidency. Jane knows this and takes the next step. She’s invited John Edwards to speak out asking his fellow contenders for the nomination to come to the Senate, amazing you gotta mount a campaign to get these two fools to do their jobs and maybe convince the voters to vote for ’em, and support Dodd. This would I believe be a great teaching moment for the candidates, ‘SellOut’ Reid, and the People of the United States.
Here’s Jane’s great, great post with all the links you need take action to protect your freedom….and that of your family.
‘Live Free or Die!
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Posted by A.Citizen
January 12, 2008
Folks over at dKos are stirred up about the possibility that Edwards could win. To do so he’s gonna need the netroots help. I’m already doing what I can and with some help we look to do a lot more before the CA primary. If you think that having either Clinton or Obama running against McCain/HuckaBee! is a good idea don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
But…..
If your a progressive netizen who is determined to do whatever you can to help the Edwards campaign right now then check out this post and then…………
Keep an eye out here. We’re workin’ on some stuff. While you’re waiting you can send lawyers, guns and
money to JRE and EE right here….right now.
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Posted by A.Citizen
January 9, 2008
Don’t let anyone tell you the Democratic Primary is over. Don’t let anyone tell you that Clinton or Obama will now sweep to victory. That that is a outright lie should be clear by now.
Remember prior to IA how the ‘Hillary is inevitable meme was buzz, buzz, buzzing everywhere propelled by the corporatists press? Obama swatted that sucker right out of the air!
Then it was Obama, Obama, Obama will ‘run the table with the Big Mo’ he got in IA! Didn’t happen. Clinton thumped his ass in NH. Two primaries two winners.
So now it’s Edwards ‘will drop out…’. The question of ‘Who will get Edwards votes when he drops out?’ is all the corporatist media can talk about. Simple minded, lying son-of-a-bitches with their owner’s agenda, crush populism, firmly in mind they would have you believe ‘it’s all over for Edwards’. Question for ya. What do the votes of the farmers of IA and the hardy millworkers of NH, hey…I can git cliched as the next assclown who works for the NYT ala ‘Bloody Billy’ Kristol if I feel like it, count towards. What are they electing in the primary states or rather I should say who are they electing? Folks called delegates who are pledged to vote for one or another of the candidates. So, what’s the count now. Is Hillary running away with it?
Not hardly here’s the count to date:
NH Total
Obama 9 25
Clinton 9 24
Edwards 4 19
Doesn’t look like no blowout to me. And one of the founders of the people-powered-politics movement Jerome Armstrong thinks its actually something pretty damn good for our nation. Here he is with the teaser quote:
‘If that’s not a race, then nothing is. Certainly, Obama and Clinton have a monetary edge over Edwards, but don’t discount earned media or Edwards having enough funds to compete well enough. All of the post-Iowa national polls have shown Edwards trending up into the 20 percents, and he’s viable. There is no frontrunner. I still predict that Clinton will ultimately win the nomination, but I care more about it being a battle in which everyone participates that wants too than I do about the ultimate Democratic nominee.’
Bold by me. Read the rest of this post here……………
And get ready for the primary cause it’s comin’ to a town near you!
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Posted by A.Citizen
January 7, 2008
I report, you decide.
What’s it gonna be folks? This guy or slick talking ‘More of The Same’.
What’s it gonna be?
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Posted by A.Citizen
Bear Republic Action Group 