This is a fucking mess and the people in charge are too dumb to even notice what a fucking mess they made

Remember when W. Bush toppled the Iraqi government after months of half-assed detached from reality planning for what the post-invasion government would be like?

This is like that, but without any of the half-assed planning.

So much winning

Our illegal war in Venezuela now includes kidnapping foreign heads of state.

These things tend to have unintended consequences. I hope the Trump Administration is preparing...

Ha, who am I kidding? of course the Trump Administration hasn't given a single thought to the downstream consequences of this. Secretary Drunk Rapist is too busy strutting around and telling his demented boss about how cool the explosions looked.

Meanwhile my prediction #21 20 19. Didn't last 50 hours before being wrong. That must be a record. 

 

2026 Predictions

It's that time again! As I have almost every year since 2008, I'm going to toss a bunch of darts at the predictions dart board. What I write below is what I think, at this moment as the year changes, of what will probably happen in 2026. It doesn't necessarily mean things that I want to happen. In fact, as you will see, there's a lot of stuff I don't want to happen but think, nevertheless, that it will anyway.

As always I am trying to limit my predictions to things that will be easy to determine at the end of the year whether each prediction is right or wrong. So I am not going to predict stuff like "the U.S. will lose a lot of credibility internationally in 2026," even though I think that will probably be true, because it is about something that isn't measurable or easily determined to be either right or wrong.

Got it?

Ready or not, here they come:

1. Trump will no longer be President at the end of 2026. (I am not predicting whether he will die, or be removed because of incapacitation, but it will be one of those two. I don't think he will resign or be impeached and convicted this year)

2. The war in Ukraine will still be an active shooting war at the end of 2026.

3. The White House ballroom will not be built by the end of 2026.

4. At least 3 members of Trump's cabinet at the beginning of 2026 will no longer be in the cabinet at the end of the year.

5. While there will be a "ceasefire" in Gaza in the sense that everyone will still refer to a ceasefire as if there is one, Israel will still be doing raids and bombings in the territory by the end of the year. More specifically, Israel will kill at least 20 people in Gaza in December 2026.

6. The inflation rate will be over 5% by the end of 2026.

7. The U.S. will be in a recession at some point in 2026.

8. The Democrats will win a majority of the House in the 2026 midterm elections.

9. The Republicans will maintain their majority in the Senate (or it will be a tie Senate, which will still be a Republican majority because the Vice President will be a Republican)

10. The federal government will attempt to litigate some of the House or Senate race results.

11.    Sam Alito or Clarence Thomas will either no longer be on the Supreme Court or will announce their retirement before the end of 2026.

12. The Supreme Court will rule against the Trump Administration on the tariff case (Learning Resources v. Trump).

13. The Supreme Court will rule against the Trump Administration on the birthright citizenship cases (Trump v. Washington and Trump v. Barbara)

14. The Supreme Court will rule in the Trump Administration's favor in the vast majority (over 65% of the time) of other cases.

15. The U.S. stock market will crash in 2026.

16. There will be at least one shutdown of the federal government in 2026.

17. Trump's approval rating will be underwater (meaning his unfavorability rating will be higher than his favorability rating) for either all of 2026 or all of 2026 up until the point that he is no longer president (assuming I am right about #1), as measured by Nate Silver's polling average model.

18. At least three members of Trump's cabinet will leave their job in 2026.

[I guess I already said this in prediction #4. D'oh! Thank's GW!]

19 18. The federal inflation rate will be higher than 5% by the end of 2026.

[AND I already said this in prediction #6. I really did not pay attention when I wrote this post. Thanks Snarki!]

20 19 18. I guess I gotta do my Central Asian leader prediction. Since I flip back and forth on this one, for this year I will predict that at least one of the five former Soviet Stans (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan (officially the Kyrgyz Republic) will change their head of state in 2026.

21 20 19. Nicolas Maduro will be President of Venezuela at the end of 2026.

22 21 20. While the bombing of boats in the Southern Caribbean and off the coast of Central and South America in the Pacific Ocean will continue at the beginning of 2026, there will be at least one big fuckup or embarrassing event that happens with one of them in 2026. Embarrassing event means something like a botched strike (the victims survive and get away), a target that later turns out to be someone who should not be targetted, a strike captured on video that embarrasses the U.S./Trump Administration in some way, etc.

23 22 21. Benjamin Netanyahu will no longer be Prime Minister of Israel at the end of 2026 (yeah I have made this prediction before. But I will be right this time!)

So... do you think any of these are right? Turn in at the end of 2026 to find out!

Grading my 2025 Predictions

It's that time again! Another year down the tubes. Which means it's time not only to pop that champaign (and who isn't excited for this awful year to be done). It's also time to look at what I predicted at the start of the year to see just how full of shit I was (and probably still am).

Let's get to it!

1. All of Trump's cabinet appointees who are put to a vote in the Senate (both in committee and in the Senate at large) will pass. Some may drop out before they get to a vote (like Gaetz already has) but everyone who it put up for a vote will be confirmed.

Right! I mean, the exclamation point is because I was right, not because I am excited that the Senate is willing to rubber stamp every unqualified rapist and white supremacist  (or both! I'm looking at you Hegseth!) who Trump may appoint.

2. Elon Musk will no longer have any role in the Trump Administration (this prediction includes the prediction that either he won't be in charge of DOGE, or that DOGE won't exist by the end of the year)

Right. 

3. The government will shut down at least once in 2025.

Right, and it was the longest one ever.

4. Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker of the House at the end of 2025.

Wrong. I'm convinced the secret to Johnson's survival has been that the House Republican caucus simply can't agree on anyone else.

5. Trump will imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods of at least 20%. The tariffs will be broadly on all Chinese goods, with a bunch of exceptions for his friends and contributors.

Exactly right. Trump mucked with the tariff rate for Chinese goods several times over the course of the year. But every new tariff he set on that country kept the basic rate over 20%. And, when the rate was at 145% he gave massive exemptions for the tech industry after the leaders of silicon valley showered him with praise and bribes.

6. The rate of inflation at the end of 2025 will be higher than 4%.

Wrong. Inflation is rising, but the annualized overall inflation rate is currently 2.7%.

7. Trump's inauguration celebration in Washington will include at least one Nazi and/or Neo-Nazi incident (meaning a pro-Nazi demonstration or Nazi-violence or property defacement or damage).

I'm going to call this one right because of the Musk Nazi salute.

8. Either Clarence Thomas or Sam Alito will announce their retirement (probably pending confirmation of a successor) in 2025.

Wrong.

9. The federal debt ceiling will be abolished in 2025.

Wrong.

10. Elon Musk will no longer be the world's richest person by the end of 2025.

Wrong.  In fact he got richer this year. I think I made this prediction assuming that Musk's association with Trump would tank his reputation and damage the brands of his various businesses. On that front I think I was right, but I didn't account for how much Musk was able to award himself government contracts and strong-arm states to allow him to give himself absurdly inflated compensation packages.

11. Donald Trump will either die or have a major health crisis (meaning a hospitalization and at least a temporary incapacitation) in 2025.

There were a few mysterious disappearances from public view for a handful of days, but I was predicting something bigger and more obvious than that. So this one counts as wrong.

12. Trump will issue an executive order to conduct mass deportations which will trigger lawsuits, family separations, and mass incarceration of migrants.

There's no question this one is right.

13. Trump will reduce the refugee cap to zero in 2025.

Wrong. He did not make it zero. I must admit, it never occurred to me that Trump would restrict the U.S. refugee program to white South Africans who do not meet the legal definition of a refugee.

14. Congress will pass a bill that will either extend the Trump tax cuts originally passed in 2017 so that their expiration does not occur until after Trump's current presidential term, or make them permanent.

Right.

15. The filibuster for legislation will be abolished in 2025.

Wrong. Trump wanted to, but this is one of the very few things that the Senate said no to him about.

16. There will be some negotiated cease fire in Ukraine that effectively freezes the front lines but doesn't really resolve the conflict (meaning Ukraine won't agree to give up any territory permanently and Russia won't agree to alter any of its territorial claims over Ukraine) There will be at least one ceasefire violation after it is negotiated. (Actually, there will probably be several but at this point I'm going with "at least one")

I'm going to call this one wrong, although I think it is pretty close to what happened. There was no formal ceasefire that was honored by both sides this year though, so I can't spin this as correct.

17. The War in Gaza will be "over" in the sense that Israel will claim that something like an end to major military operations in the strip and all the hostages will be released or deemed dead. But Hamas will still exist, Israel will continue to kill people in the Gaza strip, and there will be no serious effort to rebuild the region.

Another one that is a little fuzzy around the edges, but I will call this one right. The Gaza War is now widely referred to as over, the surviving hostages have been released, Hamas still exists, Israel is still killing people in Gaza, and while there is talk about rebuilding Gaza, nothing has happened yet.

18. The U.S. will institute some kind of sanctions against the International Criminal Court to retaliate against its criminal investigation and charges of Israeli officials because of their actions in Gaza.

Right. We are ruled by lawless criminals.

19. The civil war in Sudan will still be raging at the end of 2025 even though there will rarely be any stories about it in the U.S. news media.

I'm going to call this right even though the fall of el-Fasher and the subsequent slaughter broke though the media bubble a little bit.

20. The Syrian provisional government that took over since Assad fled the country will still be in control of Damascus and nominally, at least, the rest of Syria. No major civil war will break out in 2025, although the regime will still be fragile and its future will still be in question.

Right.

21. The five former Soviet Stans (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic--not really a stan anymore even though most people still call it "Kyrgyzstan") will not have any change in their head of state in 2025.

Right.

22. Trump's approval in the 538 favorability average model will be underwater (meaning higher disapproval than approval) throughout 2025.

Okay, so I did not foresee that ABC would kill the 538 site. But the 538 model basically lives on at Nate Silver's web site. So using that, my prediction was wrong. If you scroll down to the chart on that page, Trump's approval was overwater (his approval was higher than his disapproval) for about 2 months at the beginning of his presidency, before dropping underwater, where it will probably stay from now on.

23. Congress will pass some kind of legislation that requires the federal government to buy cryptocurrency in 2025.

Wrong. Trump has signed executive orders to create a "strategic reserve" for cryptocurrency (which would require the federal government to buy a ton of scamcoins), but no legislation has passed.

24. While there may be an effort to cut Social Security or Medicare in 2025, no such cuts will pass Congress.

I'm going to call this one wrong. Trump's "Big Bill" which is the only major legislation that Trump got through Congress, effectively cuts Medicare by removing some of the funding streams for the Medicare Trust Fund which amounts to a $500 billion cut to the program over the 8 year period between 2026 and 2034.

Tally Time!
I got 12 right and 12 wrong, fifty-fifty! I have never gotten exactly half right (and wrong) before. My problem this year was failing to anticipate how much worse Trump would be this year.

Here is how I did on every prior year since I started doing this:

2008: 20 right to 4 wrong (83.333%) 
2009: 14.5 right to 7.5 wrong. (65.909%) 
2010: (none because Kazakhstan) 
2011: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong (70.455%) 
2012: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong again (70.455% again) 
2013: 15.5 right to 9.5 wrong (62.000%) 
2014: 17 right to 9 wrong (65.385%) 
2015: 11.5 right to 13.5 wrong (46.000%) 
2016: 17.5 right to 9.5 wrong (64.815%) 
2017: 18 right to 8 wrong (69.923%) 
2018: 14.5 right to 11.5 wrong (55.769%)
2019: 15.5 right to 11.5 wrong (57.407%)
2020: 10.5 right to 10.5 wrong (50.000%)
2021: 10 right to 13 wrong (43.478%)
2022: 14 right to 8 wrong (63.636%)

2023: 17 right to 6 wrong (73.913%)

2024: 12 right to 11 wrong (52.175%)

Will I do any better in 2026? If you're reading this post when it first appeared, wait 2 minutes and reload the page to see my predictions for that year.

“Does anyone know what Somaliland is, really?”

 It is not accurate to write a headline that says Trump is “not ready to embrace Somaliland independence” when what he actually says in the article indicates that he has no idea what the de facto independent territory is.

Demented President Remembers Greenland

For the past few months, it seemed like President Trump had forgotten about his weird determination to make Greenland part of the United States. But with the appointment of Jeff Landry as Special Envoy for the Illegal Seizure and Annexation of Greenland, I guess that's still on his agenda.

I have always wondered how much of this Greenland obsession is because he is fooled by the distorting effects of the Mercator projection, which makes everything in the far North look much bigger on the map than they actually are. (Greenland can look as big as South America on some maps. But if you look at the square miles of the Island it is pretty close to the size of Saudi Arabia.)

Despite Trump's protests to the contrary, the U.S. has an incredibly good deal with Denmark regarding Greenland right now. Denmark is responsible for the health care, food, and shelter of everyone in Greenland (which can be enormously expensive given its location) and the U.S. gets largely unfettered access to its military base there. If Greenland became part of the U.S., our national security situation would not change a bit (the U.S. would still have its base), but we would get the huge costs of maintaining a bunch of remote and distant civilians settlements. Plus Greenlanders hate the idea of joining the U.S., so the U.S. would also bear the brunt of whatever resistance develops.

The U.S. taking over Greenland over the overwhelming opposition of the locals is one of those ideas that only a total moron would get behind. That's America in 2025-2026!

What does "cease-fire" mean?

This article epitomizes how the American press deals with every armed conflict that Israel has with its neighbors. In the first sentence it notes that a year ago Israel and Lebanon entered into a cease-fire. But then in the very next sentence it casually mentions that Israel has bombed Lebanese territory "on a near-daily basis."

But does it say that Israel has broken the cease-fire? Or that there isn't a cease-fire anymore? Of course not! The entire thrust of the article is about how Lebanon and Hezbollah must do more the make sure the cease-fire (which hasn't, you know, ceased Israel's fire) holds.

It is pretty clear that the authors of the article know what is going on. At one point it notes that "Hezbollah has said it no longer maintains an 'armed presence' south of the Litani River" but that north of the river, Hezbollah's forces "remain entrenched." What an odd statement, right? Why does the Litani River matter? The article never says what the significance of that river is. It certainly doesn't mention that under the cease-fire agreement Hezbollah was required to withdraw to positions north of that river. So in other words, Hezbollah seems to be abiding by at least some of the cease-fire terms while Israel is not.

Aside mentioning the fact that Israel is killing people in Lebanon on a "near-daily basis", the article also casually drops in that Israel "still occupies several sites inside Lebanese territory, despite having initially agreed to withdraw." Israeli forces haven't left Lebanon and they are still attacking people in Lebanon! I don't think there's any question that if Hezbollah so blatantly violated the terms of a cease-fire agreement that would be the focus of the article. Instead the article is framed by the question of what Hezbollah and the Lebanese government should be doing to make sure this cease-fire (again, not an actual cease-fire) continues to hold when the other side of the conflict seems to be ignoring everything it is required to do.

Most articles about Israel are like this. Reading them sends me into a weird la-la-land, where Israel freely breaks deals it makes, and the facts of how they have broken that deal are mentioned without every pointing out that Israel has, in fact, broken the deal. Instead, the onus is always on Israel's adversaries. Why aren't Israel's neighbors doing more to make sure that Israel, a country that outguns everyone else in the region and is currently being led by a bunch of racist war-enthusiastic zealots, is more safe even as they are being shot by Israel?