'Doomsday Clock' set to 85 seconds to midnight, closer than ever to catastrophe

If the Doomsday Clock strikes midnight, humanity has reached the metaphorical point of annihilation, according to a group of atomic scientists.

Today, that symbolic benchmark was set to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to the hour of doom.

"The Doomsday Clock's message cannot be clearer," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists chief executive Alexandra Bell said.

"Catastrophic risks are on the rise, cooperation is on the decline, and we are running out of time."

The Chicago-based non-profit created the clock in 1947 during the Cold War.

Nearly 80 years on, the escalating danger of nuclear war remains a significant threat to humankind.

"In terms of nuclear risks, nothing in 2025 trended in the right direction," Ms Bell said.

Other factors pushing the hands towards midnight were widening wars, rapid advances in artificial intelligence and climate change.

So is humanity really running out of time? This is what the ticking of the ominous clock tells us.

Key moments that changed the clock

The Doomsday Clock was unveiled two years after the United States detonated two atomic bombs over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

It is set by the Science and Security Board, which is composed of scientists, Nobel laureates, and other experts with deep knowledge of nuclear technology and climate science.

The clock was placed at seven minutes to midnight in 1947 and has since been reset 27 times.

Throughout its existence, apart from a few exceptions, it has edged within minutes of doom.

The clock was set at its furthest point from midnight — 17 minutes — In 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).

But over the last decade, the clock has moved closer to midnight.

It dropped from three minutes in 2015 to a then-record 89 seconds in 2025 due to a combination of global conflicts, climate change, and biohazards.

"A year ago, we warned that the world was perilously close to global disaster and that any delay in reversing course increased the probability of catastrophe," the Bulletin said in the 2026 statement.

"Rather than heed this warning, Russia, China, the United States, and other major countries have instead become increasingly aggressive, adversarial, and nationalistic."

Nuclear agreements collapse

Ms Bell highlighted a year of conflicts, such as Russia's continued war in Ukraine, the US and Israeli bombing of Iran and border clashes between India and Pakistan.

She also cited China's threats toward Taiwan and rising tensions in the Western Hemisphere since US President Donald Trump returned to office 12 months ago.

"Of course, the Doomsday Clock is about global risks, and what we have seen is a global failure in leadership," Ms Bell told Reuters.

Ms Bell said the "winner-takes-all, great power competition" undermined the international cooperation needed to reduce risks of nuclear war, climate change, misuse of biotechnology, potential AI-related hazards and other apocalyptic dangers.

A major contributor to this year's setting was the expiration of the the New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms pact between the United States and Russia.

The treaty, which ended on February 4, limited the number of nuclear warheads each country could possess.

It will mark the first time since the early 1970s that there will be no legally binding limits on US and Russian nuclear stockpiles without another agreement being under negotiation.

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) said the new Doomsday Clock setting reflected "a world facing escalating nuclear dangers and a full-blown new nuclear arms race".

"With New START ending next week, the last limits on US and Russian nuclear arsenals are disappearing," ICAN co-founder Tilman Ruff said.

He expected it could lead to less nuclear restraint "alongside an arms race in space".

"Their failure of leadership puts everyone at risk," Dr Ruff said.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), nine countries possess nuclear weapons: the US, China, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.

According to its 2025 assessment of the state of armaments, Russia and the US together possessed about 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons.

But the institute has observed that many of those nuclear arsenals have been enlarged and upgraded in recent years.

"Decades of arms control have failed to deliver disarmament. Now even those hard-won constraints are in tatters," Dr Ruff said.

"Nuclear-armed states continue to modernise, expand and threaten to use their arsenals while forcing the rest of the world to live with the consequences."

In October, Mr Trump ordered the US military to restart the process for testing nuclear weapons after a halt of more than three decades.

No nuclear power, other than North Korea in 2017, has conducted explosive nuclear testing in more than a quarter-century.

Dr Ruff said there was an increasing urgency for more countries to commit to the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

About half of the world's nations have signed the historic treaty, which provides the only internationally agreed framework for the eventual elimination of nuclear weapons.

While Dr Ruff was optimistic about the treaty, some countries that possess nuclear weapons, and others that seek protection from them, such as Australia, were yet to sign.

"Australia cannot credibly respond to this warning while standing outside the nuclear weapons ban, and providing increasing assistance for the possible use of US nuclear weapons," he said, citing Australia's involvement in the AUKUS program to build nuclear submarines.

"Joining the treaty is the most meaningful step we can take to help turn the Doomsday Clock back."

ABC/Reuters