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Book of Why
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An argument for how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence.
"Illuminating." ―New York Times
"Extraordinary." ―Science Friday
“Correlation is not causation.” This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, once led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, with causal analysis taking center stage in AI and other applications, the old taboos are a thing of the past.
The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and others, established causality on a firm scientific basis. Pearl showed how intuitive models can interface with data to help answer causal questions, such as whether a drug will cure an illness or, counterfactually, whether an illness would have persisted absent the drug. These models provide a blueprint for causal AI to learn and take responsibility for its mistakes.
Updated with a new preface and summary of recent advances, The Book of Why outlines the basics of cause and effect for lay readers and scientists alike, providing tools to explore the observable world and worlds that might have been.
- ISBN-101541698967
- ISBN-13978-1541698963
- EditionReprint
- Publication dateAugust 25, 2020
- LanguageEnglish
- Dimensions5.5 x 1.08 x 8.25 inches
- Print length432 pages
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From the Publisher
Editorial Reviews
Review
"Illuminating... The Professor Pearl who emerges from the pages of The Book of Why brims with the joy of discovery and pride in his students and colleagues... [it] not only delivers a valuable lesson on the history of ideas but provides the conceptual tools needed to judge just what big data can and cannot deliver."―New York Times
"Cause and effect is one of the most heavily debated, difficult-to-prove things in science and medicine. This book really gets you thinking about cause and effect as it applies to issues of our time, such as: How come cigarettes were around for years and we never showed they were causing cancer or heart disease? The authors goes through these cases like an interrogation, and it's just extraordinary."―Science Friday
"Seriously, everyone should read The Book of Why."―Jeff Witmer, American Mathematical Monthly
"'Correlation is not causation.' That scientific refrain has had social consequences...Judea Pearl proposes a radical mathematical solution...now bearing fruit in biology, medicine, social science and AI."―Nature
"Lively and accessible...Pearl was one of the visionary leaders of the causal revolution, and The Book of Why is his crowning achievement."―Jewish Journal
"Anyone interested in probing connections between cause and effect, and their relevance for the future of AI, will find this a fascinating and provocative book. Highly recommended."―CHOICE
"Judea Pearl is on a mission to change the way we interpret data. An eminent professor of computer science, Pearl has documented his research and opinions in scholarly books and papers. ... With the release of this historically grounded and thought-provoking book, Pearl leaps from the ivory tower into the real world...Pearl has given us an elegant, powerful, controversial theory of causality."―American Mathematical Society
"The Book of Why ... questions and redefines the building blocks of our AI systems"―theverge.com
"Have you ever wondered about the puzzles of correlation and causation? This wonderful book has illuminating answers and it is fun to read."―Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
"Pearl's accomplishments over the last 30 years have provided the theoretical basis for progress in artificial intelligence... and they have redefined the term 'thinking machine.'"―Vint Cerf, Chief Internet Evangelist, Google, Inc.
"Judea Pearl has been the heart and soul of a revolution in artificial intelligence and in computer science more broadly."―Eric Horvitz, Technical Fellow and Director, Microsoft Research Labs
"If causation is not correlation, then what is it? Thanks to Judea Pearl's epoch-making research, we now have a precise answer to this question. If you want to understand how the world works, this engrossing and delightful book is the place to start."―Pedro Domingos, professor of computer science, University of Washington, and author of The Master Algorithm
About the Author
Dana Mackenzie is a PhD mathematician turned science writer and has written for Science, New Scientist, and Scientific American, among others. He lives in Santa Cruz, California.
Product details
- Publisher : Basic Books
- Publication date : August 25, 2020
- Edition : Reprint
- Language : English
- Print length : 432 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1541698967
- ISBN-13 : 978-1541698963
- Item Weight : 14 ounces
- Dimensions : 5.5 x 1.08 x 8.25 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #33,492 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1 in Biostatistics (Books)
- #2 in Public Affairs
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About the authors

Discover more of the author’s books, see similar authors, read book recommendations and more.

Writing is my second career, but it was my first love. As a kid, all I wanted to be was a writer. Nevertheless, my academic career took a different direction. I loved mathematics too, and earned a doctorate from Princeton. I taught math for six years at Duke University and seven years at Kenyon College in Ohio. I enjoyed it, but I have to say I never felt that teaching was my true calling.
In 1996, using the newfangled invention called the World Wide Web, I found out about the Science Communication Program at the University of California at Santa Cruz. Suddenly all the pieces of the puzzle clicked together. I could be a writer, as I had always wanted to be, and still make use of my knowledge of math and science.
At UCSC I learned about journalism and made the contacts I needed to hit the ground running. An internship at American Scientist in the summer of 1997 gave me some practical experience in writing and editing with a deadline. Since the fall of 1997, I have been a full-time freelance writer.
Some of the magazines I have written for are Discover, Smithsonian, Science, and New Scientist. "The Big Splat, or How Our Moon Came to Be" published by John Wiley & Sons, was my first book. Since then, I have written two booklets for the American Mathematical Society, called "What's Happening in the Mathematical Sciences," volumes 6 and 7. I am working on another book about mathematics now, and I will post more information as it comes closer to fruition.
The Story of "The Big Splat"
The idea for my first book, "The Big Splat, or How Our Moon Came to Be," came out of a meeting that I covered in 1998 for Science magazine. It was a conference about the origin of Earth and the Moon, and I was the only reporter there. In three days of talks, I was astounded to hear over and over about the giant impact theory of the Moon's origin -- a theory that was completely unfamiliar to me, and yet was really the only one seriously discussed at this conference. I was amazed that the experts had more or less agreed on where the Moon came from, and yet no one outside the planetary science community knew about it! There was clearly a failure of communication between scientists and the public. It was up to me to bridge the gap.
Writing the book was a lot of fun. It was the perfect size for a first book. It came out to be twelve chapters long, and I had about twelve months to write it. That meant that I had to tell one in-depth story a month, which was just the right pace for me. I enjoyed the feel of working on a long-term project, as a change of pace from jumping around from one article to another.
A special treat, which I did not at all anticipate, was doing historical research with original documents. To research one chapter I traveled to Cambridge, England, to delve into the Charles Darwin papers. (What does Charles Darwin have to do with the Moon? Read my book to find out!) It's hard to express the thrill of holding in my hands a letter that Darwin sent to his son a century ago, realizing that I might be he first person to read it since then.
"The Big Splat" came out in the spring of 2003, and received excellent reviews. Booklist, a magazine published by the American Library Association, named it as one of their Editor's Choices for 2003 -- an honor accorded to only 63 books that year, and only four science books.
In June of 2007 I appeared the History Channel's new series, "The Universe," in an episode called "The Moon." In fact, if you watch carefully you will see that about half of the hour-long show is based on "The Big Splat." It was a dream come true to see what was essentially a "TV version" of my book. In August 2009 I appeared on "The Universe" again, this time in an episode about how Earth would be different if we had no moon.
Everything Else You Wanted to Know about Dana Mackenzie
In my free time, I am also an avid chess player. I was the state champion of North Carolina in 1985 and 1987, and earned the National Master title in 1988. In 2006, I joined the team of master teachers at www.chesslecture.com, where I record two video lectures a month. Ironically, I find teaching chess to be more satisfying than teaching math was, and my "students" seem to like me better. Why?!? Maybe because chess is, in the language of academia, an elective course, while math often is not.
My other hobbies include music and dancing. I started folk dancing in college, and years later I met my wife, Kay, in an international folk dance group. Four years ago I joined the Hula School of Santa Cruz, a warm, supportive, and family-oriented group. I strongly encourage any of you who have ever experienced the aloha spirit to find your local halau and give hula a try. The photo shows me before one of our performances.
Kay is also a writer -- we call ourselves the "Mackenzie Publishing Empire"! If you are into quilting, please check out her books, either here at Amazon.com or by visiting her webpage at quiltpuppy.com.
























