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  • Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

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Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

by Tom Chivers (Author) Format: Paperback
4.4 out of 5 stars (521)

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A “fascinating, witty, and perspective-shifting” (Oliver Burkeman, New York Times bestselling author) tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author ofThe Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.

At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.

But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?

“Witty, lively, and best of all, extremely nerdy” (Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist), Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining and accessible illustration of how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.
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  1. Print length
    384 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Atria/One Signal Publishers
  4. Publication date
    July 8, 2025
  5. Dimensions
    5.5 x 1 x 8.38 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    1668052636
  7. ISBN-13
    978-1668052631
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Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Tom Chivers is an author and the award-winning science writer for Semafor. His writing has appeared in The Times (London), The Guardian, New Scientist, Wired, CNN, and more. His books include Everything Is Predictable, The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy, and How to Read Numbers.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Atria/One Signal Publishers
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ July 8, 2025
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 384 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1668052636
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1668052631
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 10.5 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.5 x 1 x 8.38 inches
  • Best Sellers Rank: #184,956 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.4 out of 5 stars (521)

About the author

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Tom Chivers

Tom Chivers

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