{"id":288560,"date":"2026-02-21T04:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-21T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/?p=288560"},"modified":"2026-02-20T11:56:10","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T11:56:10","slug":"brexit-campaign-ten-years-on-10-promises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/news\/politics\/brexit-campaign-ten-years-on-10-promises\/","title":{"rendered":"The Brexit campaign kicked off a decade ago. Here&#8217;s how 10 promises made to voters hold up today"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"polaris__simple-grid--main\"><div class=\"polaris__simple-grid--body-content\"><div class=\"-article-content-container tbi-content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ten years ago, David Cameron fired the starting gun on the <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/culture\/music\/noel-gallagher-says-brexit-is-a-disaster\/\" type=\"post\" id=\"178240\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Brexit referendum campaign<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The four-month process, kicking off on 20 February 2016 and running until the decisive vote on 23 June, delivered political theatre: Bob Geldof and Nigel Farage shouting from <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36537180\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rival boat flotillas<\/a> on the Thames, &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2016\/jun\/22\/operation-croissant-uk-law-foils-plan-to-hand-out-pastry-with-pro-eu-cards\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Operation Croissant<\/a>&rdquo;, a tearful <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/video\/news\/video-1301403\/Keep-Britain-s-heart-beating-UKIP-s-poem-Vote-Leave.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">UKIP poem recital <\/a>&ndash; and of course, the <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Vote_Leave_bus#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">big red bus<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amid the photo opportunities &ndash; which included Boris Johnson brandishing a lot of fish &ndash; sweeping promises were made. A decade on, how do they stand up?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Read more:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/opinion\/brexit-net-migration-rishi-sunak-uk-immigration\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No, Brexit didn&rsquo;t help UK &lsquo;take back control&rsquo; &ndash; it made immigration rise. Here&rsquo;s how<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/news\/environment\/sleeper-trains-europe-sustainable-transport\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Why Europe&rsquo;s sleeper trains are waking up<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/opinion\/nigel-farage-reform-uk-politics-general-election-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Nigel Farage is like poison &ndash; why is he still allowed to set the political agenda?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-leave-brexit-will-slow-migration\"><strong>1. Leave: &ldquo;Brexit will slow migration&rdquo;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EU migration did fall sharply after free movement ended. Most EU nationals now need visas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But non-EU migration surged under the post-2021 points-based system, driven by health and care visas and international students. Long-term immigration hit a record 1.2 million in 2022; net migration peaked at 906,000 in the year to June 2023.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"polaris__simple-grid--aside aside-upper\"><div class=\"polaris__simple-grid--sticky\"><div class=\"-ad-wrapper\"><div class=\"_ad--label\">Advertising helps fund Big Issue&rsquo;s mission to end poverty<\/div><div class=\"snack-ad-wrapper dmpu\"><div id=\"snack_dmpu\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"polaris__simple-grid--full\"><div class=\"polaris__focus-bg -full-width tbi-inline-full-width-ad\"><div class=\"-ad-wrapper\"><div class=\"_ad--label\">Advertising helps fund Big Issue&rsquo;s mission to end poverty<\/div><div class=\"snack-ad-wrapper billboard\"><div id=\"snack_dex3\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"polaris__simple-grid--main\"><div class=\"polaris__simple-grid--body-content\"><div class=\"-article-content-container tbi-content\">\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Numbers have since dropped after <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/news\/social-justice\/overseas-care-worker-ban-adult-social-crisis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tighter visa rules<\/a> and higher salary thresholds &ndash; but with knock-on effects for the NHS and social care.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&ldquo;Even the most committed <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/opinion\/eu-youth-mobility-scheme-brexit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Brexiteer<\/a> would have to admit that Brexit has been an abject failure on the terms Leave set itself on migration,&rdquo; said George Newth, lecturer in politics at the University of Bath.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&ldquo;It was based on a false premise of being able to control something that was outside of any government&rsquo;s control to a certain extent, external migration and workflows.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<div class=\"tbi-content-gate\" data-post-id=\"288560\" data-registered-cookie-days=\"365\" data-dismissed-cookie-days=\"30\">\n\t<div class=\"tbi-content-gate__gradient\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n\t<div class=\"tbi-content-gate__panel\">\n\t\t<div class=\"tbi-content-gate__layout\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"tbi-content-gate__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tbi-content-gate__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<svg width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/http\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M7 11V8a5 5 0 0 1 10 0v3\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<rect x=\"5\" y=\"11\" width=\"14\" height=\"10\" rx=\"2\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\"><\/rect>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"16\" r=\"1.5\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/circle>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"tbi-content-gate__title\">Keep reading the journalism that powers our mission <\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"tbi-content-gate__body\">Register free to continue and learn more about the stories, campaigns and the support we provide, helping people facing poverty across the UK.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"tbi-content-gate__signup\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tbi-content-gate__form\"><script charset=\"utf-8\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/js-eu1.hsforms.net\/forms\/embed\/v2.js\"><\/script>\r\n<script>\r\n  hbspt.forms.create({\r\n    portalId: \"25501189\",\r\n    formId: \"5e3d4b75-fe8d-4a5b-b719-a052e2087a79\",\r\n    region: \"eu1\"\r\n  });\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tbi-content-gate__legal\"><p>By registering, you agree to our <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/staging.bigissue.com\/terms-of-use\/\">Terms &amp; Conditions<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/staging.bigissue.com\/big-issue-group-website-privacy-policy\/\">Privacy Policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tbi-content-gate__divider\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span>or<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"tbi-content-gate__dismiss-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"#\" class=\"tbi-content-gate__dismiss\">I will register later<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brexit has helped entrench a harder political tone around <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/opinion\/brexit-net-migration-rishi-sunak-uk-immigration\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">borders<\/a>, normalising narratives associated with the far-right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&ldquo;The whole right-wing discourse around stopping the boats and stronger borders is now very much part of political conversation across the spectrum,&rdquo; he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-leave-take-back-control-of-our-laws\">2. Leave: &ldquo;Take back control of our laws&rdquo;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2018 Withdrawal Act ended EU law supremacy and converted EU rules into domestic &ldquo;retained EU law&rdquo;. Parliament can now amend or repeal them.<\/p><div class=\"-ad-wrapper polaris__focus-bg ad-mobile\"><div class=\"_ad--label\">Advertising helps fund Big Issue&rsquo;s mission to end poverty<\/div><div class=\"snack-ad-wrapper mpu-repeatable\"><div data-snack-repeater=\"snack_dex5\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In practice, most remain. Around 6,925 EU-derived laws are still on the statute book as of <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/retained-eu-law-dashboard\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/retained-eu-law-dashboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">January 2026<\/a>. Keeping them is more practical than replacing them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brexit was always more an emotive argument than a practical one, Newth said. &ldquo;This idea of &lsquo;taking back control&rsquo; is a Pandora&rsquo;s box, really. Because where does that end?&rdquo;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-leave-stop-handing-over-350-million-a-week-to-brussels-and-give-it-to-our-nhs-instead\">3. Leave: Stop handing over &pound;350 million a week to Brussels and give it to our NHS instead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We all remember the big red bus, plastered with the Leave campaign&rsquo;s claim that &ldquo;we send the EU &pound;350 million a week&rdquo;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&ldquo;Let&rsquo;s fund our NHS instead,&rdquo; the coach declared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This figure was false; according to the UK Statistics Authority it represented a &ldquo;clear misuse of official statistics.&rdquo;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It was more like &pound;250 million a week &ndash; but we also got money back from the EU.<\/p><div class=\"-ad-wrapper polaris__focus-bg ad-mobile\"><div class=\"_ad--label\">Advertising helps fund Big Issue&rsquo;s mission to end poverty<\/div><div class=\"snack-ad-wrapper mpu-repeatable\"><div data-snack-repeater=\"snack_dex5\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&ldquo;In any case, the impact on the economy from changes to trade after leaving the EU is likely to be far bigger than savings from the UK&rsquo;s membership fee,&rdquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/fullfact.org\/europe\/350-million-week-boris-johnson-statistics-authority-misuse\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Full Fact found.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The politicians pledging to redirect EU money into the health service were often the very same politicians that stripped out vast amounts of funding during austerity, said Newth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&ldquo;The bigger lie was that any of that money was going to go back into the NHS. It was kind of a big distraction technique, really&hellip; politicians such as Michael Gove saying &lsquo;let&rsquo;s spend this on our NHS instead&rsquo;. Well, how about not cutting that funding from the NHS in the first place?&rdquo;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/life\/health\/nhs-appointments-labour-privatisation-problems\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NHS<\/a> budget has increased since Brexit &ndash; but this is not funding that has been rediverted from the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"image-cta-container\">\n    <aside class=\"image-cta wp-block-bigissue-image-cta\">\n        <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/bigissue.secure.darwin.cx\/12FOR1225P\">\n            <picture class=\"image-cta__picture\">\n                                    <source srcset=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BI-Subs-paid-media-Digital-Ad_400x200.jpg\" media=\"(max-width: 768px)\" height=\"833\" width=\"1667\"><\/source>\n                                                    <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"polaris__image image-cta__image\" src=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BI-Subs-paid-media-Digital-Ad_800x250.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BI-Subs-paid-media-Digital-Ad_800x250.jpg 3333w, https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BI-Subs-paid-media-Digital-Ad_800x250.jpg?resize=150,47 150w, https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BI-Subs-paid-media-Digital-Ad_800x250.jpg?resize=768,240 768w, https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BI-Subs-paid-media-Digital-Ad_800x250.jpg?resize=1536,480 1536w, https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BI-Subs-paid-media-Digital-Ad_800x250.jpg?resize=2048,640 2048w, https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BI-Subs-paid-media-Digital-Ad_800x250.jpg?resize=1530,478 1530w\" alt=\"\" height=\"1042\" width=\"3333\" loading=\"lazy\">\n                            <\/picture>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/aside>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-4-leave-protect-british-fisheries\">4. Leave: &ldquo;Protect British fisheries&rdquo;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Leave promised to quit the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), become an &ldquo;independent coastal state&rdquo;, and &ldquo;take back control&rdquo; of UK waters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under the CFP, quotas for shared stocks were divided between member states according to decades-old catch records. Many British fishermen argued this meant EU boats hauled in far more fish from UK waters than UK boats did from theirs.<\/p><div class=\"-ad-wrapper polaris__focus-bg ad-mobile\"><div class=\"_ad--label\">Advertising helps fund Big Issue&rsquo;s mission to end poverty<\/div><div class=\"snack-ad-wrapper mpu-repeatable\"><div data-snack-repeater=\"snack_dex5\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"-ad-wrapper video-ad-wrapper\"><ins data-fluid-zoneid=\"19029\" data-fluid-id=\"e6404a5432b1988ea2e71ec092e8608a\"><\/ins><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More than <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.politico.eu\/article\/brexit-fisheries-uk-industry-betrayal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">nine in 10 fishermen<\/a> were reported to back Leave in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On paper, Leave succeeded. Under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, the UK formally left the CFP. The deal phased in a transfer of around 25% of the value of the EU&rsquo;s fishing quotas in UK waters to the UK fleet between 2021 and 2026. But that&rsquo;s a modest gain compared to the 80% the industry wanted. And new paperwork, health certificates and border checks hit shellfish and fresh exports especially hard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-5-leave-the-irish-border-would-be-unchanged\">5. Leave: &ldquo;The Irish border would be unchanged&rdquo;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&ldquo;The situation [at the Irish border] would be absolutely unchanged,&rdquo; Boris Johnson said in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But it has changed. When the UK left the EU&rsquo;s customs union and single market; the Republic of Ireland didn&rsquo;t. But a hard border on the island of Ireland risked breaching the Good Friday Agreement, key to the end of the Troubles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The solution was the Northern Ireland Protocol, later revised as the <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/news\/politics\/windsor-framework-why-rishi-sunak-was-able-to-secure-the-brexit-deal-that-others-couldnt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Windsor Framework<\/a>. Instead of checks on the Irish land border, checks moved to the Irish Sea. Northern Ireland continues to follow some EU goods rules to keep the border invisible. 56% of Northern Irish voters voted Remain. <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.politico.eu\/article\/united-ireland-look-more-likely-brexit-study-uk-belfast\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.politico.eu\/article\/united-ireland-look-more-likely-brexit-study-uk-belfast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Some studies<\/a> show that support for a united Ireland has surged since the Brexit vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-6-remain-it-will-hurt-the-economy\">6. Remain: &ldquo;It will hurt the economy&rdquo;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The economy didn&rsquo;t collapse overnight (that drama came later under Liz Truss).<\/p><div class=\"-ad-wrapper polaris__focus-bg ad-mobile\"><div class=\"_ad--label\">Advertising helps fund Big Issue&rsquo;s mission to end poverty<\/div><div class=\"snack-ad-wrapper mpu-repeatable\"><div data-snack-repeater=\"snack_dex5\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But most independent analysis finds lasting damage. The Centre for European Reform estimates GDP is <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.rieti.go.jp\/en\/special\/p_a_w\/230.html?\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">6&ndash;8% lower<\/a> than it would have been without Brexit with business investment 12&ndash;18% lower. <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/obr.uk\/forecasts-in-depth\/the-economy-forecast\/brexit-analysis\/#assumptions\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/obr.uk\/forecasts-in-depth\/the-economy-forecast\/brexit-analysis\/#assumptions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Office for Budget Responsibility<\/a> projects a long-run GDP hit of around 4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-7-remain-trade-will-suffer\">7. Remain: Trade will suffer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The EU is still the UK&rsquo;s largest trading partner. In 2024, <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/research-briefings\/cbp-7851\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/research-briefings\/cbp-7851\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">exports<\/a> to the bloc were &pound;358bn (41% of the total) and imports &pound;454bn (51%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tariffs were avoided under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, but non-tariff barriers remain. Government data show goods exports to the EU in 2024 were 18% below 2019 levels in real terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-8-leave-wages-will-rise\">8. Leave: Wages will rise<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most economists, including the OBR, find no clear Brexit-wide wage dividend. Recent <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.ons.gov.uk\/employmentandlabourmarket\/peopleinwork\/earningsandworkinghours\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.ons.gov.uk\/employmentandlabourmarket\/peopleinwork\/earningsandworkinghours\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">pay growth<\/a> has been driven more by inflation and post-pandemic shortages than structural gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Banseka Kayembe, founder of <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/opinion\/votes-at-16-democracy-general-election-politics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Naked Politics<\/a>, says the promised dividend never arrived.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&ldquo;Many Brexit campaigners&hellip; claimed that restricting immigration from the EU would reduce the amount of workers, which in turn would drive up wages for UK workers. A decade on, we haven&rsquo;t seen that play out,&rdquo; said Keyembe.<\/p><div class=\"-ad-wrapper polaris__focus-bg ad-mobile\"><div class=\"_ad--label\">Advertising helps fund Big Issue&rsquo;s mission to end poverty<\/div><div class=\"snack-ad-wrapper mpu-repeatable\"><div data-snack-repeater=\"snack_dex5\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&ldquo;Wage growth has been squeezed mostly by high levels of inflation, the introduction of AI automation and weak productivity. There&rsquo;s been no magic gains from restricting people&rsquo;s movement from the EU.&rdquo;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-9-leave-the-union-will-be-stronger\">9. Leave: The Union will be stronger<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&ldquo;If we vote to leave, then I think the union will be stronger,&rdquo; Boris Johnson argued in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead, Brexit galvanised campaigners for an independent Scotland. Scotland voted 62% Remain and put independence back up the news agenda. A YouGov poll from last November showed the Scottish public remains split on independence with 49% backing it and 51% against.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Northern Ireland, post-Brexit arrangements destabilised power-sharing; Northern Ireland had no devolved government for several years as disputes rolled on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-10-leave-leaving-the-eu-lets-the-uk-do-big-trade-deals-around-the-world\">10. Leave: &ldquo;Leaving the EU lets the UK do big trade deals around the world&rdquo;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vote Leave suggested that outside the EU, the UK could strike free trade agreements with countries like the United States and Australia, compensating for increased friction with Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The UK can now negotiate its own agreements. But progress has been gradual, and the economic gains modest. These are mostly &ldquo;rollover&rdquo; deals, that the UK enjoyed anyway as an EU member.<\/p><div class=\"-ad-wrapper polaris__focus-bg ad-mobile\"><div class=\"_ad--label\">Advertising helps fund Big Issue&rsquo;s mission to end poverty<\/div><div class=\"snack-ad-wrapper mpu-repeatable\"><div data-snack-repeater=\"snack_dex5\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent turbulence under Donald Trump &ndash; including renewed tariff threats &ndash; has shown that negotiating alone is very different from acting as a 27-nation bloc with the economic weight of the EU behind it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, among the first wave of tariffs Trump slapped on other nations, the UK managed to negotiate a 10% tariff which was among the lowest. But both the UK and other European nations have still faced the threat of higher tariffs over opposition to Trump&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/news\/politics\/starmer-greenland-trump-cost-of-living-crisis-tariffs\/\" type=\"post\" id=\"285407\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">plans for Greenland<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Do you have a story to tell or opinions to share about this?&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/behind-the-scenes\/how-to-have-your-views-published-by-the-big-issue\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Get in touch and tell us more<\/a><\/em>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Change a vendor&rsquo;s life this winter.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Buy from your local Big Issue vendor every week &ndash; and always take the magazine. It&rsquo;s how vendors earn with dignity and how we fund our work to end poverty.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>You can also support online with a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/shop.bigissue.dsb-fly.net\/the-big-issue-contribution-vskcta25\">vendor support kit<\/a>&nbsp;or a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/bigissue.secure.darwin.cx\/edxmas25\">magazine subscription<\/a>. Thank you for standing with Big Issue vendors.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"-ad-wrapper polaris__focus-bg ad-mobile\"><div class=\"_ad--label\">Advertising helps fund Big Issue&rsquo;s mission to end poverty<\/div><div class=\"snack-ad-wrapper mpu-repeatable\"><div data-snack-repeater=\"snack_dex5\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><script>window.adconfig = window.adconfig || [];window.adconfig[\"6aa7b4bdf0190\"] = {\"injectionBreakPoints\":{\"indexTemplate\":{\"ads\":{\"desktop\":18},\"subscription\":{\"desktop\":9}}},\"adUnitPath\":\"\\\/10518929\\\/bigissue.com\",\"adSettings\":{\"refreshTime\":30000,\"excludeCategories\":[\"big-issue-foundation\",\"big-issue-invest\",\"behind-the-scenes\"]},\"id\":\"div-gpt-ad-rail3\",\"targeting\":{\"page_type\":\"article\",\"postId\":288560,\"author\":\"Lottie Elton\",\"cat\":\"\",\"sponsor\":\"\",\"live\":true,\"slot\":\"rail3\"}};<\/script><div class=\"polaris__simple-grid--aside lower\"><div class=\"polaris__simple-grid--sticky\" ><div class=\"-ad-wrapper\"><div class=\"_ad--label\">Advertising helps fund Big Issue\u2019s mission to end poverty<\/div><div class=\"snack-ad-wrapper dmpu\"><div id=\"snack_dex4\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Amid the many photo-opportunities of the Brexit campaign sweeping promises were made. A decade on, how do they stand up?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":179,"featured_media":288561,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2026-02-21T04:00:58Z","apple_news_api_id":"7520161a-5694-4b6f-ba60-935a30b7f1bd","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2026-02-21T04:00:58Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/apple.news\/AdSAWGlaUS2-6YJNaMLfxvQ","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[762],"tags":[1950,1249,374,2809,1540,280,352,350],"class_list":["post-288560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-analysis","tag-boris-johnson","tag-brexit","tag-health-and-wellbeing","tag-migration","tag-nhs","tag-nigel-farage","tag-politics"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Brexit campaigning turns 10. Here&#039;s how promises to voters hold up - Big Issue<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Brexit campaigning kicked off on 20 February 2016. The trail saw big promises made to voters. A decade on, how they stand up?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/news\/politics\/brexit-campaign-ten-years-on-10-promises\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brexit campaigning turns 10. Here&#039;s how promises to voters hold up\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Brexit campaigning kicked off on 20 February 2016. The trail saw big promises made to voters. A decade on, how they stand up?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/news\/politics\/brexit-campaign-ten-years-on-10-promises\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Big Issue\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.facebook.com\/bigissueuk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-21T04:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.bigissue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/untitled-46.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Lottie Elton\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"The Brexit campaign kicked off a decade ago. 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