According to my research, there are 2.01 urgent care visits per population of 1,000 per day. Here is how the math works. Comment below if you have a better estimate or data-rich method of forecasting demand.
[Median Daily Provider Visit Volume] x [National # of UC Clinics] ÷ [Year end population] x [1,000] = National Daily Volume per 1,000 Estimate
🔢 Median Provider Visit Volume: 47
🔢 National # of UC clinics: 14,320 (2022)
🔢 Year end population: 334,025,515 (2022)
🟰 2.01 daily visits per 1,000
This number is a national average and does not necessarily capture local demand, but it could be a helpful starting point for making that determination. In California, Medi-Cal and Medicare dense populations will likely trend higher in demand due to lower financial barriers to being seen.
💡Anecdotally, our Bakersfield and Fresno clinics see roughly DOUBLE the volume of our Temecula and Murrieta clinics.
A multi-region study that puts numbers to the delta between this demand and PPO demand would be fascinating.
#UrgentCare is a volume-driven business and accurate demand forecasts are vital when investing in a new clinic. While there is certainly an art to selecting accessible and profitable clinic sites, there is a lot of hard data to digest. The more recent and granular (in terms of region) the data, the better in my opinion.
Sources:
(1) Urgent Care Industry White Paper: The Essential Nature of Urgent Care in the Healthcare Ecosystem Post-COVID-19, Urgent Care Association, August 2023
(2) Monthly Population Estimates for the United States: April 1, 2020 to December 1, 2024 (NA-EST2023-POP), U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, December 2023
Accelerated Urgent Care
U.S. Census Bureau
Accelerated Urgent Care