Aquarian Holdings

Over the past two decades, unprecedented bouts of coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus have flooded global markets with capital designed to stimulate stagnant economies. Perhaps no country relied more heavily on these tools than Japan – where the Bank of Japan at one point owned nearly half of the entire Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) market – to artificially suppress yields and stimulate economic growth. Indeed, Japan’s dismal fiscal situation, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 200%, shows the widest disconnect to its 10yr sovereign yields among the G10, by a wide margin. Investor complacency on this front has been repeatedly reinforced by the simplistic thesis that fiscal deficits just do not matter for ‘safe havens’ – until they most certainly do. Indeed, the ‘safe haven’ thesis was put to the test earlier this week as JGB markets reacted on Tuesday to renewed stimulus measures spearheaded by PM Takaichi, resulting in the largest 1 day move in 10yr JGB yields (+9 bps) since Liberation Day and the largest 1 day move in 30yr JGB yields (+27bps) on record. Such yield spikes are upending the relative value trade underpinning fervent Japanese UST demand for over two decades. From 2009 to 2019, the currency-hedged spread between JGB/UST 10yr risk gifted Japanese investors a median ~90bps incentive to export capital to the UST market, driving yield-seeking investors to accumulate roughly $900BN of USTs since 2002, and thus simultaneously subsidizing U.S. borrowing costs. Japanese investors now hold $1.2TN of USTs, making them the largest holder of U.S. sovereign risk in the world. Now, the recent blowout in JGB yields is providing this massive Japanese holding base with a renewed incentive of roughly 100bps to reshore capital – thus rolling back a key yield suppressant for the UST market. Case in point: Tuesday’s rise in JGB yields dragged the UST market down along with it, with the 10yr and 30yr spiking to 4.29% and 4.92%, respectively. As Japan’s safe haven veneer fades, the far bigger risk is that the U.S.’ and that of other developed economies follow suit. Cracks in the UST market have already emerged in recent months as evidenced last year by Liberation Day-induced volatility, and more recently as stress in overnight funding markets forced the Federal Reserve to step in with renewed quantitative easing measures to fill the demand void for bills. The resultant risks of structurally higher borrowing costs on the long end of the curve will further burden already strained sovereign budgets and risks upending domestic monetary policy agendas…at least until the next cycle of quantitative easing inevitably arrives. Sources: IMF as of 12/31/24; Bloomberg Finance, L.P. as of 1/22/26; Bloomberg Finance, L.P. as of 1/22/26

U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro may have shocked the world, but markets remain remarkably indifferent to growing geopolitical risks with major indices closing last week in the green. That said, oil markets and related assets are already beginning to price in the possibility of Venezuelan crude returning to the U.S. refining system. Despite holding the world’s largest oil reserves at roughly 300 billion barrels (nearly 20% of global reserves), Venezuela produces only ~1 million barrels per day (~1% of global production) after years of underinvestment, decay, and U.S. sanctions crippled its output. While estimates suggest that run-rate production gains of 200–300k barrels per day are plausible by year-end with limited investment, a more meaningful recovery to pre-sanction levels could take upwards of a decade and require substantial capital investment of up to $100 billion, alongside investor assurances of political stability. Markets are looking to Canada as a key risk. Since the 2019 U.S. sanctions, Canadian heavy crude has displaced Venezuelan barrels at Gulf Coast refineries, with Canada’s import share rising to 32% in 2024 from 18% in 2018. Even partial normalization of Venezuelan flows could pressure Canadian heavy crude pricing and margins as flows are redistributed through more costly routes. Canadian Cold Lake Heavy Crude prices on the Gulf Coast widened to an ~$8.50/barrel discount to WTI – the largest since late 2023 – as markets reacted in real time despite the long timeline and execution risk for unlocking Venezuelan supply. Sources: U.S. EIA as of 12/31/25 and Bloomberg Finance, L.P. as of 1/12/26

We’re Hiring! At Aquarian, we are building a team grounded in the shared purpose of making a lasting impact through long-term investing.     Learn more about our open roles across Aquarian Holdings and Aquarian Investments. Apply through our career portal here: https://lnkd.in/eR8Mj_-6

We are pleased to announce the first closing for Aquarian Real Estate Partners (“AREP”) since its launch in October 2025. Together with PACE Equity, LLC, AREP closed an integrated senior construction and C-PACE financing for a 436-unit, Class A garden-style multifamily community in Celina, Texas, designed by JPI. This transaction reflects the vision behind our partnership with PACE Equity: bringing senior construction lending and C-PACE together in a single, coordinated process to deliver more efficient financings and reduce complexity at closing. The structure is projected to generate 13,420 metric tons of carbon savings, demonstrating how improved deal economics and meaningful environmental impact can go hand in hand. Read more about the transaction in the press release: https://lnkd.in/eps4vJ8V

“There are no risk-free paths now.”   That observation from Fed Chair Jerome Powell captured the defining challenge of 2025: navigating market uncertainty with little margin for error.   In our latest outlook, Aquarian’s Head of Macro Research, Brandon Sanders, examines the forces shaping markets as we head into 2026 — from consumer bifurcation and stalled housing to staggering AI capital demands, elevated deficits, and markets priced for perfection.   The takeaway: resilience remains, but fragility is building beneath the surface. Selectivity, discipline, and vigilance will matter more than ever in the year ahead.   Read the full outlook here:  https://lnkd.in/eRYXstKr

Aquarian Holdings and Investors Heritage proudly joined forces last week for the Pack Hope initiative with the Armed Services YMCA National Headquarters to assemble care boxes for military families in need. Together, our teams packed 8,596 pounds of food, making a difference in the lives of 600 military families.    These care boxes ease holiday stress for many young military families who struggle to make ends meet. It is a privilege to support the Armed Services YMCA as sponsors and, for a second year, as volunteers in Kentucky. Their work has a profound impact on the lives of junior enlisted service members and their families.

Earlier this month, at the Saadiyat Rotana in Abu Dhabi, our Founder and Managing Partner, Rudy Sahay, joined Oscar Fahlgren of Mubadala Capital at Mubadala Capital’s Annual General Meeting for a conversation about how insurance and asset management are increasingly working in tandem to support long-term investing.    Rudy and Oscar explained how permanent capital and disciplined underwriting can create stability and investment opportunities that benefit from patience and alignment. The conversation underscored how a model built around shared purpose can open meaningful opportunities for policyholders and LPs alike.   We appreciated the opportunity to join Mubadala Capital to discuss the direction the industry is heading. 

Anti Fund, co‑founded by Jake Paul and Geoffrey Woo, announces its over-subscribed $30 million Anti Fund I. With the close of Fund I, Anti Fund’s assets under management now exceed $65 million. Anti Fund today also names Logan Paul as General Partner. Logan is a global superstar, professional wrestler, and founder of PRIME, the world’s fastest growing beverage brand. Anti Fund concentrates its investments in artificial intelligence and robotics. The firm’s focus spans pre-seed and seed-stage ventures, as well as select growth-stage industry leaders. Anti Fund’s portfolio includes OpenAI, Anduril, Ramp, Cognition, Polymarket, Flock Safety, and Physical Intelligence. Geoffrey, Jake, and Logan are each serial entrepreneurs and disruptors. The firm believes that the best founders are rebels, and the “anti” ethos resonates with the best engineers, scientists, and creators. Startups live and die on two levers: capital and attention. While capital is a commodity, attention is not. Every venture firm sells capital, but Anti Fund is unique in wielding attention to both source top founders and accelerate portfolio growth. “The very best founders break from norm and, by definition, must be 'anti' the way things have been done in the past,” said Geoffrey Woo. “Anti Fund is built to find and fund these people.” “Since inception, Anti Fund has embedded ourselves in the nests and communities of the boldest founders shaping society,” said Jake Paul. “We’ve let our results and relentless work ethic speak louder than anything else, driving rapid growth, strong brand recognition, and deep respect in a short amount of time. We are young, hungry capitalists who are just getting warmed up. We love this game, and we’re committed to scaling to the very top of it.” "Anti Fund backs boundary-breakers,” said Logan Paul. “Big thinkers. Builders who redefine the rules and bet on themselves no matter the odds. That mindset has always been my personal driving force and it’s what we will bring to the table and to every founder we choose to partner with.” “The closing of Fund I marks an important milestone for Anti Fund and validates the confidence investors have in their strategy,” said Rudy Sahay, Founder and Managing Partner Aquarian Holdings. “They have carved out a unique position at the intersection of frontier technologies and culture, and I believe their fresh approach to venture will serve them well as they scale their platform.” Key facts Fund I size: $30M (oversubscribed) Firm AUM: $65M+ total LPs include: Institutional LPs include Aquarian Holdings and Autilus Partners; individual LPs include Marc Andreesseen and Chris Dixon; and FocusPoint Private Capital Group (David Conrod, Robert Mortimer) served as exclusive placement agent. Extreme barbell strategy: $100-$500K first checks for 10% ownership in technical founders; $10M+ growth investments into industry leaders. Jake's X post: https://lnkd.in/e8T-ZdG4

While the enduring presence of the ‘Fed Put’ continues to support asset valuations – and top quintile household wealth – lower-end households are increasingly struggling to keep pace with the inflationary side effects of persistent, stimulative asset appreciation. This bifurcated consumer experience is readily visible in auto financings where subprime delinquencies have soared to all-time highs in 2025, up over 75% since the post-COVID lows in 2021, as average new car prices recently eclipsed $50,000 for the first time – driving monthly payments to over $750 per month. Meanwhile, loan durations have extended back out to near-decade highs as lenders seek to make monthly payments appear more manageable. But as consumers’ wallets are increasingly stretched thin by mounting overall debt loads, such actions may only delay – not prevent – more widespread consumer deterioration. Sources: Intex, Goldman Sachs, Edmunds