SUERF - The European Money & Finance Forum

📢 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗨𝗘𝗥𝗙 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗳𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀: how to unlock money market funds for collateral use through #tokenization; non-linear and diminishing returns to education and R&D for #productivity; #euroarea safe haven effects in the transmission of global shocks to euro area demand, finance and production; how #centralbanks can help to close sustainability data gaps; monetary and #fiscalpolicy responses to #climateshocks; indirect wildfire costs and firm adaptation; asymmetric pass-through from global to domestic food prices in Greece. 📄 𝗧𝗼 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲, 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗮 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸’𝘀 𝗦𝗨𝗘𝗥𝗙 𝗽𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀: 🔹 MMFs and collateralization: An opportunity financial markets should stop missing (https://lnkd.in/dH-SVbzb) by Cristiano Borgogna 🔹 Why is the relationship between productivity and education & research so complicated? (https://lnkd.in/d7_aqAqA) by juhana hukkinen and Matti Viren 🔹 Shelter from the storm? Safe haven status and international shock transmission (https://lnkd.in/dnNhN4tb) by Stefan Hasenclever and Benedikt Kolb 🔹 The quest for policy-relevant sustainability data in central banking (https://lnkd.in/dAxGCiea) by Andréa Barnava, Patty Duijm, Jolien Noels, Christian Schmieder, Olivier Sirello, Bruno Tissot, Ünal Seven, Omer Kayhan Seyhun, and Elena Triebskorn 🔹 Navigating climate policy shocks: How should central banks respond? (https://lnkd.in/dmFKBv4e) by Marco Carli, Francesca Diluiso, and Mathias Hoffmann 🔹 When the landscape burns: The hidden costs of wildfires for nature-dependent firms (https://lnkd.in/dEZmk2Cx) by Ferdinand Dreher and Bernardo Marques 🔹 Global and Greek food prices: Persistent asymmetries and the role of geopolitical risk (https://lnkd.in/dtWV9qp9) by Georgios Bertsatos, Konstantinos Giakas, and Stelios Giannoulakis, Ph.D. 📌 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗨𝗘𝗥𝗙 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀 & 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗳𝘀 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲: https://lnkd.in/dCYmBsv2 #SUERFpolicybriefs #SUERFpolicynotes

#SUERFpolicybrief “Global and Greek food prices: Persistent asymmetries and the role of geopolitical risk" by Georgios Bertsatos (Centre of Planning & Economic Research (KEPE)), Konstantinos Giakas (Permanent Delegation of Greece to the OECD - OCDE), and Stelios Giannoulakis, Ph.D. (Hellenic Parliamentary Budget Office) How strongly are world food prices associated with Greek #consumer #foodprices, and does the direction of the shock matter? Using quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2026Q1, we find a robust and stable long-run cointegrating relationship between international and #Greekfoodprices, characterised by pronounced asymmetry. Across all nonlinear specifications for aggregate food prices, the long-run elasticity for international price increases exceeds that for decreases and symmetry is rejected at 1% level. Evidence on declining global food prices is mixed, with some specifications even suggesting a negative association with domestic prices. We also find a persistent upward level shift in #Greek prices since 2022Q2 and that geopolitical risk intensifies the positive association between global and domestic food prices. These findings suggest that easing world food prices alone may not be sufficient to deliver comparable relief for Greek consumers. 📄 https://lnkd.in/dtWV9qp9

#SUERFpolicybrief “When the landscape burns: The hidden costs of wildfires for nature-dependent firms" by Ferdinand Dreher (European Central Bank) and Bernardo Marques (FEP School of Economics and Management, University of Porto) The #economiccosts of wildfires extend beyond the assets that burn. Using the 2017 wildfires in Portugal, the largest burned area recorded in any European country in a single year, we show that physically intact hotels whose surrounding landscape burned saw #cashflowsfall by 5–6% in 2017–2018, roughly two-thirds of the loss recorded by hotels that burned. Where the share of burned area within 1 km was in the top quartile, revenues fell by 27% in 2018. The two groups adapt differently: hotels that were themselves burned borrow long term and, where financially sound, rebuild, whereas hotels whose landscape burned cut investment and draw down cash, with the cut concentrated in hotels facing higher #recoveryuncertainty. Relief designed around physical damage therefore misses a material share of wildfire losses, and where natural capital is slow to recover, private adaptation may stall unless restoration reduces uncertainty about the return of demand. 📄 https://lnkd.in/dEZmk2Cx

#SUERFpolicybrief “Navigating climate policy shocks: How should central banks respond?" by Marco Carli (Ministero dell'economia e delle finanze), Francesca Diluiso (Bank of England), and Mathias Hoffmann (Deutsche Bundesbank) Climate policies affect inflation and economic activity through their impact on #energyprices. In a model calibrated to the #euroarea, we show that #carbonpricing raises #inflation and depresses output, while green subsidies have the opposite effects, confronting central banks with a trade-off between stabilising inflation and real activity. Because energy is difficult to replace in production and consumption, this trade-off is pronounced, and monetary policy focused solely on inflation stabilisation can impose large welfare costs. #Centralbanks can achieve higher welfare by assigning greater weight to real activity and accommodating temporary inflation movements. In line with this, policy rules that respond to both inflation and output outperform those focused only on inflation. Fiscal design matters too: using carbon revenues to finance green subsidies eases the #monetarypolicy trade-off. 📄 https://lnkd.in/dmFKBv4e

#SUERFpolicybrief “The quest for policy-relevant sustainability data in central banking" by Andréa Barnava (Banque de France), Patty Duijm (De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)), Jolien Noels (OECD - OCDE), Christian Schmieder, Olivier Sirello, Bruno Tissot (Bank for International Settlements – BIS), Ünal Seven, Omer Kayhan Seyhun (Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye), and Elena Triebskorn (Deutsche Bundesbank) Modern societies face acute sustainability challenges that encompass economic, financial, environmental, social and governance dimensions. Ensuring sustainability – commonly referred to as sustainable development, that is, the capacity to meet current generations’ needs without compromising those of future ones – calls for comprehensive statistics accounting for the preservation of well being, often going beyond traditional economic indicators (i.e., #GDP). For their part, #centralbanks have actively engaged with these issues, both as data users and producers, to support their core mandates in areas such as monetary and #financialstability, asset and #reservemanagement and, increasingly, the development of #sustainablefinance. Yet significant information gaps persist, reflecting both the conceptual and practical complexity of measuring sustainability. Addressing these gaps requires improving the current statistical offering in terms of data relevance, accessibility, reliability and cross-border harmonisation. Central banks, along with statistical offices and international organisations, can play a decisive role in advancing this agenda to better inform policies and the public. 📄 https://lnkd.in/dAxGCiea

#SUERFpolicybrief “Shelter from the storm? Safe haven status and international shock transmission" by Stefan Hasenclever and Benedikt Kolb (Deutsche Bundesbank)   What are the macro-financial implications of a potential shift in safe haven status from the United States to the #euroarea (EA)? Utilizing a two-block #DSGEmodel, we find that a safe haven status of the EA mitigates the impact of flight-to-safety shocks on domestic aggregate demand and financial conditions but exacerbates them for production. Following the #UStariff announcements on April 2, 2025, the EA's safe haven status likely had a sizeable effect on the transmission of the shock. However, in a crisis with a relatively smaller international flight to safety, such as during the 2008‑09 financial crisis, the impact of a European #safehavenstatus would be limited. 📄 https://lnkd.in/dnNhN4tb

#SUERFpolicybrief “Why is the relationship between productivity and education & research so complicated?" by juhana hukkinen (Bank of Finland (Suomen Pankki - Finlands Bank)) and Matti Viren (Turun yliopisto - University of Turku) Just recently, the #OECD published results from a new #PISAsurvey that indicated large, mainly negative, changes in educational achievement in many countries over the period 2003–2025. Similar results have been obtained with the mathematics TIMSS exams that have been carried out over the period 1995–2023. On the other hand, we have observed a #markeddecline – even a standstill – in #productivity even though there has been no decline in R&D activity in most countries. Nor have we seen a decline in schooling expenditures; rather, there has been trend-line growth. We compare the co-movements of these variables in a panel setting and find that the relationships are far from linear, reflecting some tendencies of diminishing returns. Another important element that can explain the changing relationship is the change in the gaps between the local productivity level and the global productivity frontier. This factor is not constant either, but depends on the functioning of markets, which in turn shows up in the openness of the economy and the level of foreign trade 📄 https://lnkd.in/d7_aqAqA

#SUERFpolicybrief “MMFs and collateralization: An opportunity financial markets should stop missing" by Cristiano Borgogna (Amundi Luxembourg SA) #MoneyMarketFunds (MMFs) are a liquidity solution for entities across the globe. #Regulatoryreforms implemented after the Global Financial Crisis rendered some of them extremely sound, non-volatile and liquid — essentially, high-quality-liquid assets. That should have made their units ideal assets for collateralization. However, this has not materialized in practice. As for their eligibility, policymakers have taken a conflicting stance, depending on whether a central counterparty is involved — a rather erratic approach. Market players are not deploying them for such purpose. Upon closer examination, the primary and most compelling reason for that appears to lie in concerns as to how their units are settled. The rise of #tokenization, by creating a new level playing field for settlement of financial instruments, may lead to re-considering such concerns, and finally open the door wide to the use of money market funds as collateral. 📄 https://lnkd.in/dH-SVbzb #FinancialMarkets

🔊 Join us in Rome | Inflation, inflation expectations and monetary policy What shapes #inflationexpectations, how do they influence #monetarypolicy, and how is monetary policy transmitted through the economy? These questions will be at the centre of this years's Banca d'Italia Conference and 37th SUERF Colloquium. 📅 19–20 November 2026 📍 Rome | Hybrid conference Bringing together leading academics and policy experts, the conference will provide a platform to discuss the latest research and its implications for monetary policy. Presentations and discussions will explore inflation expectations, monetary policy transmission, and the behaviour of households, firms and financial markets. 🎤 Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, Fabrizio Venditti, Elisa Guglielminetti, Marianna Riggi, Stefano Pica, Giacomo Mangiante , Alessandro Lin (Bank of Italy), Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé (Columbia University), Adrien Auclert (Stanford University), Ernest Gnan (SUERF), Marie Hoerova, Justus Meyer (ECB), Philip Schnorpfeil (Goethe University Frankfurt), Julius Theodor Schoelkopf (Heidelberg University), Nils Wehrhofer, Andrea Colciago, Olga Goldfayn-Frank (Deutsche Bundesbank), Beatriz González López (Bank of Spain), Giovanni Pellegrino (University of Padova), Luca Gemmi (University of Bologna), Lovisa Reiche (BI Norwegian Business School), Mathieu Pedemonte, Alistair Macaulay (University of Surrey), Luca Riva (Central Bank of Ireland), Paul Mizen (King’s College London), Giulia Gitti (Collegio Carlo Alberto), Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni, Alessandro Guerriero, Mirabela Bik, Sara Licciardi 🔗 Explore the conference programme and register here: https://lnkd.in/d3FgrYYd

🔊 We are pleased to invite you to an in-person conference, entitled “Housing markets – squaring supply and demand”, jointly organized by the Národná banka Slovenska (NBS) and SUERF.   The conference will take place on 📅 Tuesday, 17 November 2026, 🌍 in Bratislava The conference will focus on the various factors driving housing supply and demand in the short, medium and long run. It will also compare housing policies pursued by different countries over the years and examine their implications for housing costs, supply and demand. 🔸 Keynote address by Prof. John Muellbauer (Nuffield College, Oxford) introduced by Ernest Gnan (SUERF) 🔹 Policy panel: "Current measures" with Reiner Martin (NBS, SUERF), Angelos Athanasopoulos (Central Bank of Ireland), Luiz de Mello (OECD), Štefan Rychtárik (NBS), Carsten Detken (ECB), and Benjamin Weigert (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy) 🔹 Session 1: "Evidence on housing affordability" with Gottfried Haber (Erste Supervisory Board), Dubravko Mihaljek (Croatian National Bank), Chaira Fratto (EIB), and Jiří Procházka (NBS) 🔹 Session 2: "What drives house prices?" with Jochen Mankart (NBS), Nicolas Syrichas (Freie Universitaet Berlin), Tihana Škrinjarić Nowak (Bank of England), and Filip Blaha (ECB) 🔹 Session 3: "Cross-country perspectives" with Jan Klacso (NBS), Borek Vasicek (DG ECFIN), Natalia Levenko (Bank of Estonia), and Jarko Fidrmuc (Zeppelin University Friedrichshafen) 📍 Register here: https://lnkd.in/dFnpg2-y #RealEstate #HousholdFinance #HousingAffordability #HousingMarkets