Hans Stegeman’s Post

𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗦𝗼 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲. 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲. That is the core finding of research Ernst Hobma and I just published, based on a survey of over 1,000 Dutch people. The middle is shrinking. More people take climate change seriously than ten years ago. But a small, increasingly vocal minority dismisses it entirely. This is regime resistance: as sustainable behaviour spreads, opposition among those who bear the costs hardens. Two feedback loops. One has to win. The question is which one delivers prosperity for more people than the current unsustainable lock-in. We distilled four policy levers from the data: ✔️ Communicate clearly and offer a vision. Awareness of problems alone is paralysing. People need to know what they are transitioning toward. More free time, lower energy bills, healthier lives. That vision matters as much as the facts. ✔️ Make it fair. Transition costs falling on lower incomes while subsidies flow to those who can afford the shift is a recipe for backlash. The gilets jaunes did not happen by accident. Fairness is not an afterthought. It is a precondition. ✔️ Create early wins. Insulation that cuts bills now. Jobs before factories close. Gains felt before costs bite. Credibility has to be earned early, not promised late. Transitions that start with sacrifice lose political ground fast. ✔️ Use technology, but do not expect magic. Electric vehicles are getting cheaper and heavier. The efficiency gains are being swallowed by bigger cars. Innovation without regulatory direction is wishful thinking. None of this is complicated. The gap between what we know works and what is actually happening in politics is the real problem. Full article in the comments. 👇