Supply Chain Dynamics in Ecommerce

Every ecommerce leader I know is running on the same hamster wheel: growth targets keep rising, but the rules of the game are being rewritten under their feet. When you place a leader and later sit down with them to swap insights, you’re reminded why the right talent shapes entire industries. I had a great conversation with Julian Exposito-Bader (ex-Amazon, TAG Heuer) about what’s really shaping the future of ecommerce, and he boiled it down to four pillars every executive should have on their radar: 1. Tariffs & Supply Chain Disruption Tariffs are no longer background noise. They’ve reshaped global commerce. Chinese manufacturers are redirecting from the US into Europe, flooding marketplaces with B-brands and copycats. Leaders who win will be the ones who diversify sourcing, master customs optimization, and use bonded warehouses strategically. 2. Sustainability as a Competitive Advantage It’s no longer acceptable to send a small product in three layers of plastic. Lastmile innovation (bike couriers, drones, reusable packaging) is moving from “PR play” to “bottom-line differentiator.” Zalando is pushing hard here. Consumers are watching, and they notice who’s lagging behind. 3. AI-Powered Commerce Revolution Gen Z isn’t Googling “best running shoes”, they’re asking ChatGPT or Alexa. LLMs are the new storefront. The question is: do brands have a strategy to influence those models? Add in 10-minute delivery in Southeast Asia (coming soon to Europe) and AI-driven fraud vs. fraud detection… the entire purchase journey is being re-engineered. 4. Channel Strategy & ROI Focus Social commerce is expensive and messy, but TikTok Shop is where the next generation buys. DTC remains the highest margin, but demands world-class storytelling. Amazon gives you traffic, but only if you’re willing to pour money into ads. And let’s not forget the “lipstick effect”, beauty keeps outperforming even when wallets tighten. The takeaway? Ecommerce leaders aren’t just choosing a channel anymore, they’re orchestrating these four forces simultaneously. For me, it was also a reminder of why the right hire matters: leaders like Julian don’t just react to market shifts, they anticipate and shape them. I’m curious, in your markets, which of these four pillars is hitting hardest right now? #ecommerce #fmcg #trending

Amazon opens its logistics to Walmart, Shopify and SHEIN – quietly building the backbone of global e-commerce Amazon has expanded its Multi-Channel Fulfillment (MCF) service to support orders from Walmart, Shopify, and Shein. This marks a strategic step toward making Amazon’s logistics infrastructure available even to competing platforms. Until now, MCF supported marketplaces like Etsy, TikTok Shop, and Temu. The latest update means sellers can manage all their inventory centrally and fulfill across channels using Amazon’s network. The result: 19% fewer out-of-stock situations and 12% faster inventory turnover. From a European perspective, this signals Amazon’s ambition to become the default fulfilment layer for global commerce—regardless of where the sale happens. The update is part of a broader push: 1) Global Warehousing and Distribution will allow sellers to store goods in bulk near manufacturing hubs (China, Vietnam, India) and ship to destination markets on demand. 2) Amazon Global Logistics continues to expand with direct freight routes connecting Asia to key markets including the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. For European brands and sellers, this could reshape the fulfilment landscape: - More efficient cross-border distribution - Better stock availability for marketplaces - A stronger case for channel-agnostic inventory planning Amazon (USA) leads US e-commerce with ~38% market share. Shopify (Canada) powers over 1.7 million merchants globally. Walmart (USA) is the second-largest US marketplace. Shein (China) is one of the fastest-growing fashion platforms, with significant traction in Europe. This move is less about marketplace competition—and more about building a logistics operating system for the future of commerce. #ecommerce #retailtech #logistics #supplychain #fulfillment #fmcg #marketplaces #omnichannel #digitalcommerce #inventorymanagement #warehousing #distribution #multichannel #retailstrategy #retailinnovation #shein #shopify #walmart #amazon #d2c #crossborder #globaltrade #europeanretail #europelogistics #ukretail #germany #france #italy #spain #usamarket #asiamarkets #retailinvesting #retailmedia #startups #canada #china #usa #europe #asia #northamerica

DHL Supply Chain is turning a major Derby facility into a shared user ecommerce fulfilment centre, with George at Asda as the anchor customer, and the site is set to go live in 2027. £550 million is going into UK and Ireland logistics. One Derby site just became a clue about where ecommerce is heading next. Not prettier storefronts. Not louder ads. Shared infrastructure. That sounds tidy. It is not tidy. It is a quiet power move. Because a shared user hub changes the question from “who owns the warehouse?” to “who gets access to the best machine?” That second question is starting to matter more. This strategic implication is an inference based on DHL’s shared user model and its broader investment programme. Three things jump out fast: 🟡 Big brands do not always need dedicated boxes to get serious fulfilment firepower 🔵 3PLs are drifting closer to platform status, not just storage and shipping status 🟣 Peak season resilience is becoming something you rent, not something you build alone And there is a cheeky little twist here. The more ecommerce gets sold as a brand game, the more it turns into an operations game. George at Asda is expected to consolidate George .com clothing ecommerce activity into one location and operating model through this move. The facility is also being equipped with advanced automation, including AutoStore goods to person technology. That is not just a warehouse update. That is a speed, accuracy, labour, and cost structure update wearing a hi vis jacket. For marketplace sellers and operators, the read through is pretty direct. The gap is widening between brands that treat fulfilment as background noise and brands that treat it like a growth lever. One group talks about expansion. The other group makes sure the parcel actually leaves on time. Funny how often the second group wins. #Ecommerce #Logistics #Marketplaces #RetailOperations #SupplyChain

📦 Supply Chain is not a single function — it is an integrated system composed of six interconnected layers: 🔹 Strategic Management Defines long-term direction and resilience. This includes network design, risk management, governance frameworks, and sustainability initiatives that ensure the supply chain remains competitive and adaptable. 🔹 Demand Planning Anticipates market needs through forecasting, Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP), and inventory alignment. Accuracy at this level is critical to balancing service levels with cost efficiency. 🔹 Procurement Drives value creation through strategic sourcing, cost optimization, supplier relationship management, and performance monitoring. Strong procurement ensures supply continuity and competitive advantage. 🔹 Production & Manufacturing Transforms inputs into finished goods. This layer focuses on production planning, capacity utilization, quality control, and operational efficiency. 🔹 Logistics & Distribution Executes delivery and customer fulfillment. It encompasses warehousing, transportation, inventory deployment, and last-mile execution — directly impacting customer satisfaction. 🔹 Foundational Systems Acts as the backbone of the entire supply chain. This includes ERP systems, data governance, real-time visibility, and compliance structures that enable informed decision-making across all layers. 🚨 Where many organizations fail: Companies often attempt to resolve visible symptoms at the upper layers without addressing underlying structural issues. Examples include: ❌ Inaccurate forecasts leading to blame on logistics ❌ Stockouts resulting in pressure on suppliers ❌ Delivery delays attributed solely to warehouse performance.

Having worked in the operations research domain, I thought I had leveraged a variety of methods to formulate optimization problems, and there may not be new approaches to learn. Until I stumbled upon this today. While several approaches to optimizing eCommerce networks exist, this is a new one for me. But then, I have not dabbled in optimization for a few years now. In traditional manufacturing supply chains, demand forecasts are relatively stable and often aggregated (e.g., monthly orders). But in e-commerce, demand: 1. Fluctuates heavily due to flash sales, influencer promotions, or seasonal spikes, 2. Is highly localized (city or micro-region level), and 3. Interacts dynamically with return rates, which themselves are stochastic. Traditional optimization assumes fixed demand values (like deterministic D_i for customer i), while this paper introduces an optimization framework that treats D_i as an uncertain parameter. Treating D_i as uncertain is not new. What is new in this paper is the inclusion of a specific parameter and then leveraging an optimization approach that makes the best use of it. The paper defines uncertain demand (and returns) within interval bounds, forming what’s called a Box uncertainty set: D_i \in [D_i^0 - \Delta_i, \, D_i^0 + \Delta_i] Where a. D_i^0: nominal (forecasted) demand at customer i b. Delta_i: maximum deviation allowed (based on historical volatility or confidence interval) To prevent the optimization from assuming all demands hit their worst-case simultaneously (which would make the solution too conservative), they introduce a budget-of-uncertainty parameter \Gamma_D, following the Bertsimas–Sim robust optimization approach. A must-read for network optimization enthusiasts. https://lnkd.in/gAxGm3df #data #analytics #optimization #supplychain #supplychainoptimization #operationsresearch #networkoptimization

In supply chain, few things reveal decision architecture gaps like backorders. At first glance, they seem simple: a customer requests a product we don’t currently have, so we deliver it later. But dig deeper, and you uncover one of the most subtle (and most mismanaged) structures in inventory planning. A backorder isn’t just an unmet request. It’s a promise to the customer, made without certainty. And that promise comes with cost, risk, and priority that must be modeled explicitly. This is where most systems fall short. Most inventory systems only track physical stock. They know what’s on the shelf but not what’s committed. True decision frameworks must treat backorders as negative available stock. That single modeling change alters the prioritization logic and exposes urgency that is otherwise invisible. But the story doesn’t stop there. Minimum order quantities (MOQs) interfere. We might have 5 backorders, but if the supplier only ships in lots of 100, we’re forced into a trade-off. Fulfill the backorders and risk overstock? Or delay and risk service failure? Neither choice is easy. And that’s why naive reorder policies break down, they simply don’t account for multi-product MOQ constraints. Returns further complicate the picture. In apparel or e-commerce, returns may outnumber forward demand. So now, a backorder might get filled by reverse flow. But only if we have a forecast of both demand and returns. And only if we can model the convolution of the two to get net demand. That’s not a spreadsheet trick—it’s a structured probabilistic model. And then there’s inventory in transit. In many cases, the item is already on a boat, en route. Do we allow the sale? What if the ETA is off by two weeks? Modeling lead times probabilistically (by distribution, not average) is essential when you’re selling before you receive. All of these decisions (whether to backorder, how to prioritize, what to order, when to promise) are deeply interdependent. That means local rules won’t work. You need policy-based optimization that accounts for constraints, lead times, return cycles, and customer promises. Backorders are not a nuisance, they’re a diagnostic. They tell us whether we understand our supply chain, or whether we’re just hoping our rules hold. The solution isn’t a tighter SLA. It’s a better model. One that respects uncertainty. One that reflects reality. And one that helps us prioritize not just what to stock, but what to solve. #DecisionIntelligence #SequentialDecisionAnalytics #InventoryOptimization #OperationsResearch #DigitalSupplyChain #PolicyDesign #BitBros #SupplyChain

Your product inventory is Goldilocks. And Amazon is the bear. If managing Amazon inventory feels like playing a high-stakes game of Tetris while someone actively sets the pieces on fire, you aren’t alone. As we wrap up the holiday rush, most sellers are doing one of two things: ❒ Popping champagne because they sold out ❒ Crying into their eggnog because they’re staring at a wall of unsold units. Both are expensive. We recently onboarded a client who was trapped in the "inventory death spiral." Last Q4, they overstocked and got hit with massive Aged Inventory Surcharges. This year, out of fear, they under-ordered and triggered the dreaded Low-Inventory-Level Fee. They were paying Amazon to hold too much & paying Amazon for holding too little. ⤷ It’s a system designed to punish imperfection. Here is how we fixed the forecast: Problem? ⤷ Relying on "gut feeling" and last year’s (flawed) data. Solution? ⤷ We moved them to a 13-week rolling forecast based on real-time velocity, not just historical averages. Problem? ⤷ Paying premium FBA rates for long-term storage. Solution? ⤷ We shifted bulk inventory to Amazon Warehousing & Distribution (AWD). It acts as an upstream reservoir, auto-replenishing FBA only when needed. Problem? ⤷ Going dark during peak traffic. Solution? ⤷ We calculated a dynamic safety stock level that accounts for the unpredictable 2025 supply chain lead times. The result? They reduced their storage fees by 30% while maintaining a 98% In-Stock Rate during Cyber Week. Amazon has quietly changed its business model. They no longer want to be your warehouse; they want to be your distribution flow-through. If your 2026 strategy involves treating FBA like a storage unit, your margins are going to get eaten alive by fees. The winners next year will be the brands that treat logistics with the same obsession they treat their PPC. One Question For You: Are you entering January heavy on stock or running on fumes?

As someone working on the ground at the Port, I see early indicators of how recent trade policy shifts, particularly tariffs, influence supply chains, even if shoppers haven’t felt it yet. A lag between policy and retail impact is typical, and right now, that delay is being buffered by two main strategies: - 𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁-𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴: Importers accelerated shipments ahead of tariffs, temporarily filling shelves and delaying shortages. - 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐙𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐬 (FTZs): These near-port zones allow goods to be stored or processed while deferring duties. With tariffs around the corner, demand for FTZ space has increased. Meanwhile, the end of the 𝐝𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, which lets low-value goods (<$800) from China skip tariffs, disrupts e-commerce. Platforms like 𝐓𝐞𝐦𝐮 are now shifting to U.S.-based fulfillment, a move that may raise prices and reduce air freight volumes. Current port trends: • ~30 blank sailings skipping LA/LB ports between May 6 –June 20 • Growing use of FTZs to manage inventory and cost exposure • Shifts in sourcing away from China toward other Asian markets #Ports #TradePolicy #Tariffs #SupplyChain #FTZ #Shipping #Temu #DeMinimis #Ecommerce #Logistics #GlobalTrade #LA #LB

Most ecommerce founders don’t have supplier issues. They have leverage issues: The supplier won’t prioritize you. Lead times keep slipping. MOQs feel unreasonable. Pricing keeps creeping up. So founders do what feels logical: Push harder Threaten to move volume Start shopping for replacements But here’s the uncomfortable truth: Suppliers don’t respond to pressure. They respond to leverage. And leverage rarely comes from yelling louder. It comes from things most ecommerce brands overlook: ➡️ Optionality You’re not their only option, but they’re not yours either ➡️Predictability You’re easy to plan for ➡️Volume clarity They know what’s coming, not just what you want ➡️Strategic importance You matter beyond this PO When a brand has no leverage, every conversation feels adversarial. When leverage is strong, problems get solved quietly. I’ve seen founders switch factories three times chasing “better partners” only to recreate the same issues every time. Because the problem wasn’t the supplier. It was that the business had: One source One country One production path And no real alternatives That’s not a supplier relationship. That’s dependence. The brands that win long-term don’t beg for better treatment. They design leverage into the system: Multiple qualified sources Clear demand signals Fair but firm partnerships And the ability to walk away if needed Once leverage exists, the dynamic changes. Suddenly: Calls get returned Capacity opens up Problems surface earlier Not because the supplier changed. Because the balance did. 💬 Where do you need more leverage: sourcing, production, or volume planning? ♻️ Save this to build leverage with your supplies ➡️ Follow Kerim Kfuri for philosophy & leadership insights

Amazon isn’t just a sales channel anymore. It’s quietly becoming your operations backbone with Multi-Channel Fulfillment. Running multi-channel ecommerce sounds great, until fulfillment starts falling apart. Inventory split across channels. Different 3PLs. Manual coordination across Amazon, Shopify, Walmart… It works early on. Then it starts breaking as you scale. One shift we’re seeing: Using Amazon MCF (Multi-Channel Fulfillment) as a centralized system. Not just as a sales channel—but as an operations layer. What that unlocks: • Fulfill Shopify, Walmart, and other orders from one place • Faster shipping using Amazon’s network • Simpler returns and inventory management No more duplicating infrastructure across channels. Where it gets interesting: 1) AWD + MCF With Amazon Warehousing & Distribution (AWD): • Store bulk inventory at lower cost • Auto-replenish FBA + MCF • Reduce stockouts Flow becomes: Inbound → AWD → FBA + MCF → Customer 2) MCF for B2B MCF isn’t just for DTC. Brands are using it to: • Fulfill wholesale orders • Ship to retail partners • Support hybrid DTC + B2B models Same infrastructure. Less complexity. The bigger shift: Amazon is becoming a fulfillment backbone for multi-channel brands. Are you still splitting fulfillment… or starting to centralize it? #AmazonSeller #AmazonFBA #EcommerceOperations #SupplyChain #MarketplaceStrategy #DTCBrands #AmazonMCF