Economic Trends Affecting Rebar Manufacturing

A significant capacity signal from India’s long steel segment 👇 Kalyani Ispat, a subsidiary of RUNGTA SONS PVT LTD, has placed an order with SMS group for a high-speed bar and wire rod mill at its Rajnandgaon facility in Chhattisgarh. Planned commissioning: Q3 2026 New capacity: ~500,000 tonnes per annum Product basket will cover: ✔ rebar (8–40 mm) ✔ wire rod (5.5–20 mm) At first glance, it looks like another brownfield expansion. But strategically, it tells us three deeper things about where the Indian steel market is moving. 1️⃣ Demand confidence in construction steel Producers don’t invest in half-million-ton mills unless they see sustained offtake visibility. With infrastructure pipelines expanding across India and broader Asian markets, long products remain the most direct beneficiary of public and private capex cycles. 2️⃣ Technology = competitiveness The absence of conventional reheating furnaces and the use of induction heating is a big statement. Lower fuel consumption Lower emissions Better energy efficiency This is how future mills will prepare for carbon accounting, green procurement norms, and export expectations. 3️⃣ Automation will define margins SMS is not just supplying hardware. It is delivering integrated drive systems and intelligent automation from entry to finishing. In an environment where spreads fluctuate, yield, speed, and consistency become decisive profitability levers. What does this mean for the market? By 2026, competition in rebar and wire rod will not just be about price. It will be about: • turnaround time • quality repeatability • cost per tonne • carbon footprint • ability to service large projects reliably Players investing today in process control + efficiency architecture are effectively future-proofing their market position. India’s long steel race is quietly moving from capacity addition to smart capacity addition. #SteelIndustry #LongProducts #WireRod #Rebar #SteelInvestment #ManufacturingTechnology #EnergyEfficiency #Decarbonisation #InfrastructureGrowth #IndiaSteel #SoumyaRanjanPradhan

With the reimposition of steel tariffs by Donald Trump, the geotechnical construction industry is bracing for impact. These tariffs, aimed at protecting domestic steel producers, are expected to increase the cost of imported steel—especially from key suppliers like China, Mexico, and Canada. But while the intention may be to strengthen U.S. manufacturing, the downstream effects on infrastructure and foundation contractors could be significant. Steel is a core material in geotechnical construction—used in piles, ground anchors, soil nails, rebar cages, and shoring systems. When prices rise, so do material costs across the board, squeezing already tight margins on both private and public sector projects. Small-to-mid-size contractors, who often don’t have the scale to negotiate lower material prices or stockpile inventory, are especially vulnerable. Many firms operate on fixed-bid contracts. If steel prices spike after a bid is secured, contractors may be forced to absorb the cost difference—threatening profitability and, in some cases, job viability. Project delays could also become more common as companies wait for prices to stabilise or face longer lead times due to constrained supply. So what’s the way forward? Some in the industry are pivoting to domestic suppliers, though this often comes at a higher cost. Others are exploring value engineering—redesigning elements to use less steel or substitute alternative materials like concrete or composite systems, where feasible. Collaborative procurement strategies, like joint purchasing groups or long-term agreements with suppliers, are gaining popularity to help buffer against price volatility. Policy-level solutions could also come into play. Industry associations are urging government bodies to provide clearer exemptions, improve transparency in tariff administration, or even introduce subsidies or tax relief for high-impact sectors like construction. In my opinion, Trump’s steel tariffs are set to test the resilience and adaptability of the geotechnical construction industry. How contractors respond—through innovation, collaboration, or policy advocacy—will shape the sector’s path forward and I think that the industry will take it in their swing and come back even stronger!

𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗙: 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮'𝘀 𝗘𝗔𝗙 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗽𝘂𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗲𝗹𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲 by Anthea Shi, Vivian Yang; Mysteel Global As China advances toward its #carbonpeaking and #neutralitygoals, the country's #steelmaking landscape -- currently dominated by the blast-furnace (#BF) route -- is set to diversify, with electric-arc-furnace (#EAF) production poised to play a far greater role, according to Shangguan Fangqin, director of the Green and Intelligent Steel Technology Center at the China Iron & Steel Research Institute Group (CISRI). Speaking at the National Steel Scrap Conference 2025 hosted by #Mysteel in South China's Haikou on November 11, Shangguan outlined that China's #steelindustry will evolve toward three main #production routes.   In the future, the traditional BF route will gradually be phased out, retaining only large, high-efficiency #furnaces for the mass production of high-end #steelplates. These will be concentrated in #coastalregions and near major #miningsites, Shangguan said.   Meanwhile, 100% steel #scrapbased EAFs will replace small and medium-sized BFs to produce #constructiongrade steel #products such as #rebar and #wirerod, typically located closer to #urbancenters. In addition, specialized #hydrogenbased EAFs will emerge for the production of manufacturing #specialsteels, though their capacity will remain relatively limited.   "Currently, #EAFs account for less than 10% of China's total #steeloutput," Shangguan noted. "By 2035, that share is expected to reach around 27.7%, and by 2045 it could expand to about 56.1%, making EAFs the #dominant steelmaking #process."   This structural #transition will depend heavily on the #availability and #distribution of #steelscrap within #China. For EAFs to grow, a larger portion of the country's scrap #resources will need to be directed to EAF #producers, Shangguan emphasized.   At present, the BF route consumes roughly 70% of all steel scrap used by China's steel industry, while EAFs account for the remaining 30%, according to the #CISRI data.   Looking ahead, Shangguan also projected that China's total #crudesteel production will decline significantly in the coming years, as national per capita steel consumption falls in line with #economicrestructuring and slower #infrastructuregrowth.   By 2030, China's annual crude steel output is expected to drop to between 922 million and 948 million tonnes -- down 8.2% to 10.8% from the 2023 level. By 2060, the steel output could fall further to between 616 million and 731 million tonnes, according to the CISRI estimates. https://lnkd.in/d8MXupPQ

🚨 Steel price dynamics tell a far more complex story than it may initially appear. From Beijing, as we follow the proceedings of the “Two Sessions”, I observe a market split in two. 📍 (Rebar) slightly lower in Shanghai. The market is simply pricing in a reality: the transition of our growth model. Demand is shifting from the real estate sector toward high-technology manufacturing. This is a structural reconfiguration, not a temporary weakness. The stabilization measures currently underway require time to filter through to the real economy. ⛏️ Iron ore moving higher. Here the driver is not physical demand but global logistics. The surge in the Baltic Dry Index (to 2,242 points) and the rise in maritime freight rates—driven by geopolitical tensions beyond our control—are compressing margins across the downstream value chain. The cost of global uncertainty is now materializing directly in our raw materials. 💡 We are navigating a phase of “disconnection” between local fundamentals and global costs. Domestic demand is evolving, not contracting. High-quality industrial policy has become the new compass. On the supply side, environmental regulations—necessary and non-negotiable—will continue to discipline the market. 🌍 At the same time, external factors (energy costs, transportation, geopolitical tensions) are rewriting the rules of the commodity game. Ignoring them is no longer possible. ⚖️ The real question is how we will manage imported volatility while domestic demand transforms. The resilience of the supply chain will be the true differentiating factor. 👇 How can the squeeze between rising logistics costs and a finished-product market still in adjustment be managed? Industry experts will certainly have their answers. ➡️ Know it. #FinancialMarkets #Commodities  #Industry  #TradeFinance  #SupplyChain

UK construction materials prices in January 2024 were 1.6% lower than a year ago according to the ONS (Chart 1) and have been negative for 8 consecutive months as they continued to fall more than a year and a half on from the energy and commodity price spikes when it peaked at 26.8% (June 2022). This does not include the full impacts of Red Sea disruption on imported materials prices, which are likely to come through in February for products coming in from Asia. 75% of materials used in UK construction are made in the UK but a rise in the cost of a 40ft container from China to Northern Europe from $1,621 on 22 December 2023 to $5,492 on 19 January (Chart 2) may lead to a rise in price inflation after stocks reduce in January. Freight prices fell to $4,587 in February but significantly remain higher than before the disruptions.   The problem for small firms on fixed-price contracts, especially in housing new build and rm&i where demand has fallen sharply, is that despite falls, materials prices remain 38.1% higher than in January 2020, pre-pandemic (Chart 3).   The prices of some materials are still rising whilst prices of others are falling quickly so how firms find materials price changes on their cost base will depend on product-mixes they use. The fastest materials price rises in the year to January 2024 (Chart 4) were in Metal Doors & Windows (18.9%), Ready-mixed Concrete (11.7%), Kitchen Furniture (10.3%), Aqueous Paint (7.8%) and Boilers (5.8%). The sharpest materials prices falls in the year to January (Chart 5) were in steel products such as Rebar (-18.2%) and Fabricated Structural Steel (-14.3%) plus timber products such as Imported Softwood (-9.1%) and Wooden Doors & Windows (-5.1%) although deflation in some materials has slowed recently as imports and production adjust to lower demand and prices. As I have highlighted, the reason the sharpest price declines have been in steel and timber products is that steel prices peaked higher than other materials due to the energy and commodity price spikes in 2022 and timber prices peaked earlier than for other materials due to supply chain issues in 2021. So, even though the prices of steel-related products are falling at double-digit rates, they remain high because they are coming from a high peak. e.g. Rebar prices in January were still 46.4% higher than in January 2020, pre-pandemic, despite prices having been on a general downward trend since peaking in Summer 2022 (Chart 6). #ukhousing #ukconstruction #ukbuilders #construction #builders #constructionuk #buildersuk #building #ukbuilding #buildinguk #constructionindustry #contractors #constructionworkers #constructionworker #constructionwork #buildingmaterials #constructionmaterial #constructionmaterials #contractors #housebuilding #buildingcontractors #civilengineering #housebuilding #infrastructureconstruction #infrastructure #commercialbuilding #commercialproperty #refurbishment #refurbishments #constructionproducts #housebuilding

Steel market outlook (4 big articles) from GMK Center steel editor Vadym Kolisnichenko 1. Consumer activity in the HRC market declined in November. The market does not accept producers' attempts to raise prices -https://lnkd.in/dBcryPzW “The spread between ex-works coil prices in the EU and China is relatively small, which retains the potential to increase prices. There will be no pressure from imports before the start of the new quota period, so a price rebound looks quite possible,” said Andrii Glushchenko, GMK Center analyst. 2. Rebar market saw a drop in prices and volatility in demand in November  Offer prices are declining in China, Turkey and Europe, while the US is showing signs of stabilization - https://lnkd.in/d7-GnAEq “Turkey’s domestic market is stagnating, and steel production in the country is unlikely to grow, given that the Central Bank is trying to contain inflation and cool economic activity. Hypothetically, Turkey can maintain its current production volumes of steel products, including long products, but only if exports continue,” said Andrii Glushchenko, GMK Center analyst. 3. Scrap prices declined in November in most key markets  Scrap supply exceeds demand amid weakness in the steel market - https://lnkd.in/dG45rSq9 «The scrap market is a mirror of the steel market. Demand for steel in the European market directly affects the state of the Turkish steel industry and the scrap market. At the moment, we see no prerequisites for a rapid improvement in the situation, given the situation in the European economy,” said Andrii Glushchenko, GMK Center analyst. 4. Iron ore prices increased by 4.2% over the past week  Optimism about support for China's economy drives demand, despite risks associated with the real estate market and high inventories - https://lnkd.in/d5xR8GpN “We currently do not expect a significant increase in iron ore prices, given the high level of supply and limited prospects for consumption in China. The existing incentives are not enough to drive rapid growth in domestic steel demand, while Chinese producers face restrictive measures in foreign markets. In the future, protectionism towards Chinese steel products may increase even further, given the overcapacity in the Chinese steel industry and the intention of the new US President Donald Trump to impose new duties on China,” said Andrii Glushchenko, GMK Center analyst. GMK Center is not a news&price agency - we share with our readers our analytics and vision of the market. We are always ready to offer you market research/study in all areas of the steel and raw materials markets. #steel #ironore #scrap #rebar #HRC

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗸𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗲𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗨.𝗦. 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗽 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 Although #Türkiye's domestic market is expected to pick up with the start of the construction season in March, slowing exports and global uncertainties keep producers cautious. The main source of this uncertainty is the US #tariffs on the steel industry and fluctuations in scrap prices. US President Donald #Trump's 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports directly affects not only American #steel production but also global steel prices. This interaction poses a major risk for the Turkish steel industry. The tariffs imposed by the #US have pushed up local scrap prices, while competitive price pressures from #Asia may also lead to cost increases for Turkish producers. Scrap, one of the key raw materials in steel production, is at the heart of Turkish steelmakers' pricing strategies. Since Türkiye's steel production relies heavily on scrap imports, an increase in scrap prices directly affects hot rolled steel sheet (#HRC) prices. When scrap prices rise, producers can demand higher prices in domestic markets. However, this brings Turkish steel prices down to competitive levels with international markets and makes imports more attractive. Turkish mills have limited their #scrap purchases in March due to the impact of US tariffs and the rise in global scrap prices. With scrap prices reaching as high as $360, producers are cautious, while some producers are expected to increase their scrap demand in favor of alternative billets. On the other hand, with rebar prices holding steady, a bottom may have been reached after the price declines in February. It seems that the fact that scrap prices remain in a narrow band is affecting the pricing strategies of the Turkish steel industry. The absence of US scrap sellers in the market and the fact that scrap offers from the Baltic region have reached around $360 are causing Turkish mills to wait for higher market offers. Moreover, while price increases are expected to continue for new purchases starting in March, it remains to be seen how long this increase will last if domestic finished product sales do not increase at the same rate. In conclusion, Turkish steel producers are taking strategic steps to stabilize their production costs while trying to cope with the uncertainties in US tariffs and global scrap prices. Changes in domestic demand and fluctuations in the global market are likely to continue to influence Turkish steelmakers' purchasing decisions. Until the market stabilizes, producers will continue to be prepared for price fluctuations by making more careful purchases. https://lnkd.in/dwqNQS_t

The situation in the Persian Gulf is getting worse. We are already seeing the effects on industries with reports of attacks on steel and chemical plants. If this keeps happening, the global economy will face pressure. For producers, the risk is obvious: rising costs on one side and weakening demand on the other. This is starting to show in the steel market as well. Chinese suppliers, for example, have stopped pushing export prices higher for billet and long products. The Middle East is no longer an easy outlet, and demand in East Asia isn’t strong enough to justify increases. Even domestically, rebar prices in China are holding relatively steady, which says a lot about the current demand environment. At the same time, Türkiye is moving in the opposite direction. Toward the end of March, prices for scrap, billet, and long products started to pick up. Mills are clearly feeling the pressure from higher raw material costs and are beginning to reflect that in the market. For more updates and insights on the steel market: https://lnkd.in/dvpp_nqH

HIGH GROWTH-LOW PROFIT Domestic consumption of steel grew by over 13% in FY23, FY24 and H1 FY25. But sales realisations and profit margins of steel companies declined during this period due to drop in sale prices caused by cheap imports mainly from China, Japan, Korea and Vietnam. Imports increased from 6.022 mmt in FY23 to 8.32 mmt in FY24 (up 38.2%). In H1 FY25, imports increased by 41.1% compared to H1 FY24. China's domestic market is weak and global steel market is sluggish. Problem is somewhat severe for the last one year. Between October 2023 and September 2024, imports were 9.69 mmt; while exports were only 6.20 mmt, trade deficit being around 3.5 mmt. Due to cheap imports, domestic prices dropped drastically. Drop between September 2023 and September 2024 is 11-12% for rebar and 17% for HRC. Average sales realisations of companies declined by 3.5% to 10%; while net profit in Q2/H1 FY 25 declined by 46% in case of JSW Steel, 39% in case of SAIL, 70% in case of AM/NS India (EBITDA), 39% in case of JSPL and 21% in case of Jindal Stainless. Further, inventory increased from 10.6 mmt on 31-03-2023 to 13.67 mmt on 30-09-2023, to 14.0 mmt on 31-03-2024 and to 14.7 mmt on 30-09-2024. Exports declined from 3.6 mmt in HI FY24 to 2.31 mmt in HI FY25. Exports were 7.5 mmt in FY 24 compared to 6.7mmt in FY24. Steel companies have been requesting the government for the last several months to impose suitable trade measures to face the situation. They are not successful so far. EU, Brazil, Mexico, USA, Canada, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, Indonesia and Japan have imposed anti-dumping & safeguard measures. India's steel imports in April-October 2024, reached seven-year high of 7.8 mmt. With profits coming down, capital expenditure is adversely affected. JSW Steel has announced reduction in Capex for FY 25 by Rs 2,000-3,000 crores. Tata Steel MD has said that Capex is difficult with present margins.

🌍 Europe steel prices surge amid summer stockpiling and CBAM uncertainty The European steel market is experiencing significant activity as the summer season approaches, driven by both seasonal production halts and uncertainties related to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Especially for key products like rebar and HRC, prices in the domestic market are trending upward. Key factors behind this trend include the incomplete reflection of CBAM’s effects on prices, limited confidence in imported materials, increased stockpiling ahead of summer holidays, and planned production stoppages at many European manufacturers in August. 📌 Although CBAM has not yet directly affected import costs, preparations are underway. Slab offers from China, Indonesia, and Brazil are at $505-530/ton CFR Italy. HRC offers from Türkiye and Algeria stand at €520-540/ton. It was noted that Türkiye’s offers, including anti-dumping duties, reach €520-540/ton. 🖇️ In conclusion, the European steel market is experiencing a different pattern of seasonal slowdown this summer. Structural changes brought by CBAM, weakening imports, and strengthened pricing power of domestic producers are driving short-term upward movements. This price increase trend for both rebar and HRC is expected to continue until September. The perception of the domestic market as a more reliable and stable option may place European producers in a more advantageous position in the upcoming period. https://lnkd.in/d345rCxE