Trend Forecasting In Merchandising

Is 'quiet luxury' losing its voice to logo-centric luxury? The past few years have seen 'quiet luxury' reign supreme, with understated elegance and minimalistic aesthetics favored by brands like Brunello Cucinelli, Loro Piana, and The Row. However, recent market analyses reveal an unintended consequence: minimalistic designs have made luxury brands vulnerable to easy replication by fast-fashion and mass-market competitors, leading to potential brand dilution and consumer confusion. According to a recent Bank of America analysis cited by MarketWatch, the popularity of quiet luxury has allowed for increased imitation by lower-priced competitors, weakening brand differentiation and potentially diluting the market value of premium labels. In response, luxury powerhouses such as Gucci, Louis Vuitton, and Chanel are pivoting back to their roots—embracing bold logos, vibrant branding, and unmistakable visual identities. Gucci has reinvigorated its iconic "GG" monogram, Louis Vuitton is emphasizing its classic LV branding in recent collections, and Chanel continues to spotlight its iconic interlocking "CC" logo. This strategic shift isn't merely aesthetic; it's a calculated response to protect brand heritage, clarify brand distinction, and reinforce perceived exclusivity and value. How do you see this shift impacting luxury consumer behavior and brand strategy? #LuxuryFashion #RetailTrends #BrandStrategy #LogoDesign #LuxuryMarketing

🔴 The luxury market has officially entered a new era. Let the games begin 👇 After a decade of huge growth, driven by rising consumer demand in both established & emerging markets, the luxury goods industry is facing a key moment. 👜 Last week, we already reported that LVMH, the world's largest luxury conglomerate, saw a 5% drop in Q3 sales from its fashion & leather goods. Their stock fell by 7.5% following the announcement. Kering, LVMH's closest competitor, faced even steeper declines: - Overall sales dropped 16% in Q3 - Gucci, its flagship brand, saw a 25% decrease - BALENCIAGA & Alexander McQueen also experienced double-digit declines - Only Bottega Veneta and the eyewear division show modest single-digit growth Even Hermès, long considered resilient to fluctuations, is expected to report its slowest growth since 2021. The Birkin bag maker, which consistently outperformed its peers, is expected to report its slowest quarter since 2021 (10.5% growth). 🇨🇳 Chinese demand is weakening and (even) luxury’s most loyal customers are re-assessing their spending priorities. On the one hand, we’re seeing a growing trend of consumers prioritizing experiences over luxury goods, while the broader economic landscape (inflation & geopolitical tensions) leads to reduced consumer confidence & spending on luxury items. 💄 The beauty industry is not immune either. L’Oréal’s Q3 sales increased by just 2.8%, a modest figure given the company’s usual performance. 🧬 The industry is entering a new era, one where creativity, innovation, and regional customization will determine success. It seems that the familiar formula of growth (volume-driven expansion + aggressive marketing + celeb endorsements) no longer guarantees success. Luxury leaders can no longer rely solely on celebrity endorsements and big marketing budgets to drive sales. 🧨 Instead, they must focus on craftsmanship, exclusivity and product quality. LVMH’s Bernard Arnault stated that "marketing is secondary" to the excellence of the products themselves. A notable change in tone from a company that has long relied on massive marketing to drive demand. This mindset is critical as luxury players look to grow market share in a shrinking global market. 🌎 Brands must also adapt to regional nuances, particularly in growing markets like India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Brands that can embrace creativity, focus on quality, and adapt to shifting consumer desires are likely to emerge stronger in this new era of luxury retail. ➡️ The coming months will be crucial in determining which brands can successfully adapt to the changing landscape and maintain their position in this competitive sector. As LVMH, Kering, and Hermès recalibrate their strategies, we are witnessing a profound transformation in the industry. Let the games begin. #luxury #fashion #beauty #retail #markets #business

Fantastic report! The 2025 report "Luxury in Transition: Securing Future Growth" on enduring growth in luxury in 2025 which is dependent more and more on quality, sustainability, craftsmanship and long-term value. Key insights: →After a 2% contraction in 2024—the first in over a decade—both brands and consumers are being challenged to rethink what luxury means in a world that demands responsibility. →Sustainability is an economic lever: As Bain states, decarbonisation is not a cost burden—it’s an investment in resilience. Brands that lead in carbon reduction are already seeing benefits in consumer trust, operational efficiency, and premium positioning. →Craftsmanship underpins long-term value: In a saturated market, the luxury that lasts—through superior materials, artisan techniques, and timeless design—is what retains customer loyalty and brand equity. →Circularity is good business: Business models that include resale, repair, and rental are gaining traction. These not only extend product life and reduce waste, but also deepen engagement and open new revenue channels. →Generational shift is reshaping demand: With Gen Z and Millennials now driving over 70% of luxury growth, their values—authenticity, transparency, and environmental responsibility—are reshaping the sector. →Geographic rebalancing opens new opportunities: As 50 million consumers exit mature markets, growth is accelerating in Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America—regions where sustainable luxury holds distinct appeal. Additional highlights: Decarbonisation is emerging as a financially sound strategy for fashion brands. Research indicates that most fashion companies can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by over 60% at a cost of less than 1–2% of their revenues, making significant environmental impact achievable with modest investment. According to another report, companies leading on climate action, including fashion brands, reported financial gains equivalent to over 7% of annual revenues, driven by operational efficiency, product innovation, and increased customer loyalty. The economic case is clear: investing in sustainability—especially through decarbonisation and long-lasting craftsmanship—is not only a moral imperative, but a commercial strategy for long-term success. Report: Bain & Company / Data sources: McKinsey & Company, Boston Consulting Group (BCG) #sustainableluxury #decarbonisation #craftsmanship #longtermvalue #luxurystrategy #circularbusiness #esg #bainreport #futureofluxury

Why “Quiet Luxury” Is Not a Trend but a Strategic Repositioning In recent months, “quiet luxury” has often been reduced to a style of muted tones and discreet logos. But for those of us deeply immersed in the luxury sector, it’s far more than a superficial trend: it’s a disciplined strategic repositioning. Why it matters: - Authenticity and Craftsmanship Quiet luxury addresses a growing desire among ultra-affluent clients for authentic craftsmanship, quality, and timelessness over conspicuous consumption. It’s about expressing confidence subtly and meaningfully. - Resilience in a Softening Market Brunello Cucinelli exemplifies this approach. In the first half of 2025, the brand posted revenue growth of approximately 10.7% at constant exchange rates, with operating profit up 8.8%. It even reaffirmed its ~10% annual sales growth forecast for both 2025 and 2026, an impressive achievement in the context of industry-wide softness. - Strategic Understatement, Sustained Performance Luxury players like Hermès, Loro Piana, and Brunello Cucinelli that lean into quiet luxury are outperforming peers through their emphasis on craftsmanship, scarcity, and enduring value. Why this strategic repositioning makes sense: 1) Understatement over Flash It aligns with consumer fatigue toward flashy branding, particularly in mature markets. Quiet luxury delivers personal resonance rather than external validation. 2) Alignment with Experience Economy Affluent clients increasingly allocate spending toward art, travel, wellness, and personal growth, expecting the brands they choose to reflect evolving identities, not just purchasing power. 3) Long-Term Brand Equity By focusing on materials, craftsmanship, and timeless design, brands preserve pricing power and desirability, avoiding discounts and trend cycles. For leaders in luxury, ask yourself: are your products and services aligned with the deeper aspirations of your most discerning clients? Are you prepared to slow down, choose substance over spectacle, and build for endurance rather than instant visibility? As an international luxury strategy professional, I help brands translate these principles into robust positioning and purposeful growth. If you’re ready to elevate your strategy, let’s discuss how to prepare your brand for the next chapter of luxury. #LuxuryStrategy #QuietLuxury #BrandResilience #HighEndPositioning #LuxuryConsulting Picture courtesy of Brunello Cucinelli

Middle- and Low-Income Shoppers Now Drive 75% of Luxury Sales — Here’s What That Means for the Future of the Industry. The luxury landscape has undergone a radical transformation. According to a recent report, 75% of global luxury sales are now driven by middle- and low-income consumers. What was once an elite enclave reserved for the ultra-wealthy is now being democratized — not diluted — by a new class of aspirational shoppers. This shift didn’t happen overnight. Over the past two decades, the luxury sector has expanded far beyond its traditional roots. Brands like Louis Vuitton, CHANEL, Gucci, Cartier, Hermès and ROLEX once catered almost exclusively to a small segment of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWI). Today, those same brands are thriving thanks to the rise of what’s often called the aspirational consumer — people who may not be rich, but are willing to spend disproportionately on luxury goods as a form of self-expression, status signaling, and personal reward. So what’s changed? • Digital access: Social media and e-commerce platforms like FARFETCH, NET-A-PORTER and SSENSE have made luxury more visible and shoppable than ever. Influencers from all income levels showcase luxury lifestyles daily, fueling FOMO and aspiration. • Resale & rental markets: Platforms like The RealReal, Vestiaire Collective and Rent The Runway have created secondary markets that lower the entry barrier to brands like Balenciaga, Bottega Veneta, and Prada. • Drop culture & hype: Collaborations like Gucci x The North Face, Supreme x Louis Vuitton and Adidas x Balenciaga turned luxury into a collectible sport — accessible, if briefly, to wider audiences. • Brand strategy evolution: Executives like Bernard Arnault (LVMH), François-Henri Pinault (Kering) and Marco Bizzarri (ex-Gucci CEO) helped shift the narrative — expanding brand reach while protecting exclusivity. But this isn’t just about more people buying luxury. It’s about why they’re buying it. In uncertain times, people seek comfort and identity through consumption. Luxury — whether a Christian Dior Couture handbag, a Tiffany & Co. necklace, or even a Ysl Beauty lipstick — provides a tangible sense of worth, stability, and prestige. The takeaway? The luxury industry is no longer defined by exclusivity — it’s defined by emotional access. The future of luxury lies not in keeping people out, but in drawing them in — with storytelling, sustainability, community, and culture. The brands that understand this shift will thrive. Those that cling to the old rules of gatekeeping risk fading into irrelevance. #Luxury #ConsumerTrends #LVMH #Kering #LuxuryFashion #Retail #MarketingStrategy #GenZ #BrandManagement #FashionBusiness #LouisVuitton #Chanel #Gucci #Cartier #Rolex #Hermès #Tiffany #Prada #Balenciaga #FutureOfRetail Source: Bain & Company

A friend recently showed me his Ulysse Nardin made with recycled fishing nets. The watch itself was stunning but that’s not what struck me the most. The sheer existence of such a product seemed poetic. Waste pulled out from the depths of the ocean to create high-fashion – a true statement piece. But not all luxury fashion is poetic. It takes 22 tonnes of earth to mine the 12g of gold that makes 1 wedding band. As every industry pivots to more ethical practices, this got me thinking – what is the future of luxury jewellery? Ulysse Nardin took a genuine risk. We know from self-reported data that men are less inclined to practice sustainability. The fact that the company still chose to bet on a product for men could signal that the green luxury market is at the threshold of significant growth. Exclusivity aside, luxury fashion has never been a space where one can expect much social sensitivity or environmental action. Take diamonds for example. Mining is linked to large-scale habitat loss, pollution, and soil erosion. From supporting the Apartheid regime in South Africa to exploiting Bushmen in Botswana, diamond mining seems inextricable from anti-social policy. But diamonds themselves don’t have to be. Manufacturing rather than mining diamonds seems like a promising way to make luxury jewellery more environmentally sound. With mining entirely out of the picture, the impact of lab-grown diamonds is already slashed by half. However, at present, most lab-grown diamond manufacturers use fossil fuels to power their processes. This has a significant carbon footprint. But as companies choose to transition to renewables, lab-grown diamonds are set to be the staple of the environmentally-conscious jewellery enthusiast. In addition, companies like Do Amore have made it part of their company policy to divert profits to fighting the effects of climate change, like water scarcity in the global south. All in all, this emerging luxury marketplace is starting to sing a very different tune – one of social justice and environmental consciousness. What can you do as a consumer? 🫱🏻🫲🏼 Rent instead of purchasing. Sharing means we all consume less while looking unique for every occasion. 👪 If you must buy, invest in timeless pieces instead of passing trends. Pick staples that even your grandchildren would love to wear 50 years from now. 🧐Be sceptical and do your research when looking to support sustainable brands. Follow the work of organisations like the Responsible Jewellery Council. Some companies that have made ethical promises include BREITLING and Chopard. An environmentally conscious life needn’t be dull. As innovation soars and companies become more transparent, we can make informed decisions about what we wish to participate in. All while looking fab the entire time! #SocialImpact #Luxury #Jewelry #Plastics #Ethics

Great guide on sustainability trends for luxury brands. The 2026 ESG Policy Guide by Positive Luxury and Baker McKenzie lays out how regulation is evolving across the EU, US, Latin America, and Asia, and what that means in practice for luxury companies. It reads less like a vision and more like a roadmap of requirements that are already shaping decisions. The document shows how product design, reporting, sourcing, and compliance are starting to converge into the same set of business decisions. A few trends define that shift: * Circularity is moving into regulation. Requirements like Digital Product Passports and Extended Producer Responsibility are pushing brands to rethink how products are designed, used, and managed across their lifecycle. * Reporting is becoming more technical and comparable. Frameworks like CSRD are forcing companies to build systems that link sustainability with financial and operational performance. * Packaging is turning into a strategic lever. New rules on plastics, recyclability, and waste are driving redesign decisions that affect cost and supply chains. * Supply chain transparency is becoming a requirement. Brands are expected to trace materials, monitor labour conditions, and manage risks across multiple tiers. * Climate transition is being formalized. Targets need to be backed by credible plans and reflected in sourcing and operations. * Biodiversity is entering sourcing decisions, especially for materials linked to deforestation and ecosystem impact. The scale behind this is significant: 85% of textiles end up in landfills 81.5 pounds of clothing discarded per person each year 70% of beauty industry waste comes from packaging 120 billion units of cosmetics packaging produced annually 35% of ocean microplastics come from textiles ~700,000 microfibres released per wash of synthetic garments I believe luxury brands are in a unique position to influence how this transition plays out across the system. They control design, work with concentrated supplier networks, and shape consumer perception of value. That creates the ability to move faster on traceability, materials, and circular models. Many of the expectations now being enforced, durability, quality, longevity, have always been part of the category. The difference is that they now need to be operationalized and measured. The opportunity is not in responding to regulation one by one. It is in using this moment to redesign how the business works. Luxury can set the pace here. #sustainability #esg

This framework from the latest Highsnobiety x Boston Consulting Group (BCG) study of 6,710 luxury consumers exposes a disconnect between what brands think matters and what actually drives purchases. Brands are still pushing: Celebrity creative directors, limited drops, innovative tech, and collaborations. But consumers prioritize: Quality craftsmanship, independent identity, clear values, and authentic storytelling. The luxury industry spent the 2010s shepherding customers into elevated taste territories like teaching them that a hoodie could cost $1,000 and jeans could be leather. Mission accomplished. But perhaps too well? Educated consumers now see through conference room creativity and gimmick-driven campaigns. Very limited drops and collaborations that drove excitement in 2019 are the least relevant factors for purchase decisions. The Row, Hermès, Brunello Cucinelli, Lemaire, Loro Piana, Toteme, and Khaite are thriving while others struggle. What do they have in common? A commitment to quiet excellence over loud branding. Consistency over constant reinvention. And they treat customers as culturally sophisticated individuals, not status-seeking targets. The student has become the master. Brands need to prove they're worth the lesson. Thoughts? ✨ Follow me for insights on fashion business, digital strategy, and all things VOGUE CS!

As the dust settles on what may be the most significant #Fashion month in decades, I'm excited to see Willy Chavarria secure strategic investment from Chalhoub Group and FAE Fashion Ventures. Why This Matters for #Fashion: Chavarria represents a new paradigm in #luxury: culturally conscious, politically engaged, and unapologetically authentic. His designs weave narratives about immigration, identity, and community—proving that commercial success and social commentary aren't mutually exclusive. After a two-decade apprenticeship at Joe Boxer, Ralph Lauren, and Calvin Klein, Chavarria launched his eponymous label with both technical mastery and a clear mission. His work is not merely an aesthetic exercise but a platform for social commentary and community uplift—a stance that has earned him criticism, but also consecutive CFDA American Menswear Designer of the Year awards and a deeply loyal consumer base. He is one of the few American designers truly competing on a global scale. The #VC Trend to Watch: This deal is another example of how early-stage fashion investment is maturing. FAE grp Fashion Ventures has modeled their approach after the music industry's artist development system—investing in creative talent before they're household names. Combined with Chalhoub Group's operational expertise and regional expansion capabilities, this partnership provides complementary strengths rather than just capital. More significantly, regional luxury groups are evolving from retail partners to active brand builders. Chalhoub's shift toward direct brand ownership reflects a broader trend: strategic investors who bring distribution networks, market expertise, and a long-term partnership mentality. The Bigger Picture: #Longevity over velocity Both investors stressed sustainable growth and infrastructure-building rather than aggressive scaling. If they stay true to that vision, this patient capital approach—prioritizing team development, brand equity, and authentic expansion—offers a healthier model for creative businesses. We've just witnessed the most significant rotation of creative directors since the 1970s: Matthieu Blazy at CHANEL, Jonathan Anderson at Christian Dior Couture , Louise Trotter at Bottega Veneta, Demna at Gucci, Alessandro Michele at Valentino. Jack McCollough and Lazaro Hernandez's remarkably successful first show for Loewe demonstrates the industry's appetite for fresh perspectives. Willy Chavarria is a future Creative Director of a European #luxury house—mark my words. While significant challenges around scaling, cash flow management, and brand architecture remain, Chavarria isn't just building a successful company—he's authoring a new blueprint for what an American luxury brand can be: culturally resonant, socially conscious, and commercially powerful. The future of #fashioninvestment looks like this: backing distinctive voices early, supporting them strategically, and building for generations—not just exits.

If you sell accessible luxury in 2026, you're selling to a ghost. I have been analyzing performance across accessible luxury brands heading into Q4. The middle of retail did not shrink. It evaporated. This category was built on one customer. The aspirational shopper earning $75k to $100k who reaches up for a $300 to $500 purchase. That customer still exists. They are just no longer behaving aspirationally. What replaced them is a hard split. 📈 𝗔𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗼𝗽: High earners continue to buy true luxury. Price held. Margin held. 📉 𝗔𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺: The mass market traded down. Private label and off price are winning. This is smart buying, not cheap buying. ⚠️ 𝗜𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲: Demand now requires heavier incentive to convert. That breaks the economics of accessible luxury. This puts the category in a kill zone. You cannot raise prices without pushback. You cannot discount without destroying brand heat. So brands promo, inventory ages, and margin disappears. You can see this inside the same portfolios. Brands that moved upmarket with tighter assortments and higher AUR held. Brands that stayed whimsical and accessible struggled. This is not a marketing problem. It is a customer behavior problem. When the aspirational shopper stops buying at full price, a $300 trend item becomes a balance sheet liability that eventually clears off price. That is where profit goes to die. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗱𝗼 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: 1️⃣ 𝗥𝗲𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 Identify which SKUs can hold price without promo. Cut the rest. 2️⃣ 𝗔𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝗿 Segment return rates, promo sensitivity, and discount dependency by cohort. Stop subsidizing behavior that no longer converts profitably. 3️⃣ 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗵 Fewer SKUs. Fewer stories. More focus on evergreen franchises. 4️⃣ 𝗥𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀 Replace top line growth with contribution margin and inventory turns. Growth that destroys cash is not growth. 5️⃣ 𝗖𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗲 Premium or value. The middle no longer pays for indecision. There is no safety in the middle. Move up. Move down. Or get out. Curious what others are prioritizing: moving up, moving down, or cutting the middle entirely? Found this helpful? Share with your network ♻️  ➕ Follow Zoë Rowell for more practical retail and e-commerce insights. #VeyaStrategyGroup