Michael Monahan

Australian retail sales grew 3.2% in March 2025 year-on-year. March was impacted by the timing of Easter. Last year Easter Sunday fell on 31 March but was on 20 April in 2025. Impacts are varied by category depending on product and store closure effects. On an underlying basis, March growth looks strong for supermarket, department stores, recreational goods and online. Queensland sales were dragged down by Cyclone Alfred. Liquor does stand out for its -7.7% result but could have been in slight growth adjusted for Easter timing, based on our calculations. The most pragmatic approach is combining March & April to have a more useful read-thru. Stay tuned. For more comments on March sales by category, click here https://lnkd.in/gZGrv47E

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Getting into Woolworths or Coles Group is easy! Staying there is the hard part. Here’s the truth: → A range review isn’t a victory → Launch week isn’t the test → Sell-in ≠ sell-through Most brands get 13 weeks to prove they belong. Under performance in this time can result in a delisting. And it usually comes down to two things: → How effective is your promo program? (particularly in that first 13 weeks) → Can you scale to category velocity benchmarks quick enough? I’ve seen incredible products delisted because they couldn’t move units at pace. Not because the product was bad. But because they weren’t ready for retail reality. 📝 Getting ranged is about strategy. 📈 Staying ranged is about execution. So, don't waste those first weeks after major grocery ranging calculating how much profit you made, invest it hard so that the next range review conversation you are having is about range extensions and NPD, not a deletion. #RetailStrategy #FMCG #AustralianRetail #HealthFood #IndieGrocers #RetailExecution #CategoryGrowth #FunctionalNutrition #AussieFounders #VelocityOverVanity

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Product of the Year just handed 67.5% of its awards to private label. Last year, private label won 55% of categories. This year, Coles and Woolworths took 27 out of 40 awards between them. Here's how it works: if your product makes it through the initial application and meets the criteria, you pay $3,500 for the research. If you win, you pay another $15,000 for the rights to use the Product of the Year logo and promote your win. For Coles and Woolworths that's pocket change. For a small brand prioritising cash for production runs, retailer fees, and marketing, that's a real barrier. So the brands that can most afford to progress through the process are the same ones already dominating shelf space. And now they're dominating the awards that are supposed to recognise innovation. The winners are validated by a panel of 5,000 grocery buyers. That makes me curious - when the buyers work for the retailers selling these private label products, how neutral can the validation process really be? Private label doesn't innovate. It copies. Challenger brands invest in R&D, take the risk on new formats, test new ingredients, prove new categories. Then private label watches what works and replicates it at scale with better margins and guaranteed shelf placement. More than half of Australian shoppers now trust private label as much as national brands. That's part of a global shift where 64% of consumers believe private label is as good as branded products, according to professional services firm, EY. These awards reflect that reality. When the duopoly controls the shelf, controls the ranging, and now dominates the awards recognising "innovation," where does that leave the brands who actually did the innovating? 📸 Productoftheyear.com.au -------------------------------------------------- Hello, I’m Chelsea Ford. CPG Market Strategist: I challenge entrenched power in the consumer goods industry, making it more innovative, competitive and inclusive by delivering opportunities for small to mid-sized businesses to succeed in a fairer, more dynamic market. I post each week about innovation, consumer choice and healthy competition. Follow me; listen to the Foodpreneur with Chelsea Ford podcast; join my newsletter list; or get involved in the community via www.chelseaford.com . #cpg #fmcg #foodpreneur #foodpreneursfestival #foodpreneurwithchelseafordpodcast  

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If you're a premium or luxury omnichannel Australian brand that has many physical stores in premium locations and a strong ecommerce business and I walk into your store - here's what needs to be true. - You'll ask whether I have an account or have shopped with you before - You'll look me up in your system to help me pick up where I left off - You'll give me a receipt for my TIME (and hopefully my MONEY if I buy something today) - You'll be confident that the time spent in store today increased the chance of the next purchase happening (online or in any of your stores) sooner - or in many cases - at all. If you're living and dying by today's conversion rate, and only asking me who I am at the point of purchase, and then only to get my email address for a database to help you sell rather than help me shop - then your days are numbered. Most brands dont ask who I am. Most brand's sales are to anonymous or "one and done" customers. This is not sustainable. For many brands still getting ready to prioritise CX and retention, it may already be too late. The ROI (Risk of Inaction) is growing every day.

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I was recently interviewed on the hot topic of U.S. tariffs and their growing impact on Australian retail and ecommerce brands. It’s a conversation that’s heating up fast (or for some has already come to the boil) - especially for brands navigating global supply chains, shifting margins, and ambitious international expansion plans. Here are a few of the key points I shared: 👉🏼 Tariffs are reshaping how Aussie brands think about globalisation. Many are starting to question whether the U.S. should still be the first stop for expansion—and are now actively exploring markets like the UK, EU and parts of Asia instead. 👉🏼 Fulfilment strategies are being overhauled. We’re seeing more brands look at local warehousing, bonded zones, and switching from air freight to sea freight to control costs. Platforms like Temu and SHEIN have already pivoted, investing in local inventory to stay competitive.  👉🏼 Margin pressure is intense. Brands are having to decide: do we pass the cost onto the consumer, split it with retail partners, or absorb it ourselves? For some, that’s a make-or-break conversation. Brands need their A-player negotiators in the room. Long-held partnerships will be tested. 👉🏼 Diversification is no longer optional. We’re seeing increasing interest in manufacturing across India, Vietnam, and beyond—as brands realise that relying on a single market or supply source may be efficient but not necessarily appropriate in this new age. Quality control needs to be paramount, it's worth visiting your new factories several times to assess how they are coping with the increase in demand. Stay close to new manufacturing partners in new markets - cultural practices and nuances are different globally and it pays to pay attention. My message to brands? This isn’t a short-term blip—it’s a structural wake-up call. Use this moment to rethink your supply chain, your market entry plans, and your pricing strategies. Because resilience now will define your competitiveness tomorrow. #Retail #Ecommerce #Tariffs #SupplyChain #GlobalExpansion #AustralianBusiness #PatternAU #InternationalTrade #RetailStrategy

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Retail rents are rising 2.8%–3.2% a year, but that's not the real story. Space is getting scarcer and there is rising expectation on every square metre to matter. In my latest article with Inside Retail Australia, I unpack what rising rents are really telling us about the future of retail, and what smart brands must do next. https://lnkd.in/gQagk4fu Do you agree? #RetailStrategy #ExperientialRetail #CustomerExperience #RetailFuture Many thanks to Amie Larter Heather McIlvaine Garth Francis CFA, CA(SA), CAIA 🙌

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