Nigel Lake

In 1989, I moved to London. The 1987 crash was fresh in people’s memories, and financial markets and the business sector were subdued. Jobs for life were still the norm, but the outlook was uncertain.

At the time, Australia’s GDP was US$0.3 trillion, about 32% the size of the UK (using historic exchange rates). It was a romantic holiday destination, famous for Uluru, the Barrier Reef and kangaroos, but it was far from a significant world power, least of all in the minds of its… Show more

In 1989, I moved to London. The 1987 crash was fresh in people’s memories, and financial markets and the business sector were subdued. Jobs for life were still the norm, but the outlook was uncertain.

At the time, Australia’s GDP was US$0.3 trillion, about 32% the size of the UK (using historic exchange rates). It was a romantic holiday destination, famous for Uluru, the Barrier Reef and kangaroos, but it was far from a significant world power, least of all in the minds of its population and leaders. Australia had punched above its weight in the 1983 America’s Cup, ending 132 years of American dominance and the longest winning streak in any competition, and had had numerous successes in other sports.

In Australia Dreaming, I draw parallels between Australia’s national mindset and the challenges for others that have experienced long periods of dramatic out-performance. And we explore how to escape a “Through the Looking Glass” mentality, where the opportunities feel like risks and the real risks – of inaction and complacency – are being ignored. Show less

Imagine you are on a long distance ocean racing yacht, sailing up to the start line for a 5,000 nautical mile leg across one of the world’s fiercest oceans. If you ask the captain where you’re going, she’ll give you the name of the port at the end of the race. She won’t tell you that you’re sailing East, or that you are in a tacking duel to the start line. Both these things may be true, but neither of them are your destination.

In business, nearly every company has a “strategy” or… Show more

Imagine you are on a long distance ocean racing yacht, sailing up to the start line for a 5,000 nautical mile leg across one of the world’s fiercest oceans. If you ask the captain where you’re going, she’ll give you the name of the port at the end of the race. She won’t tell you that you’re sailing East, or that you are in a tacking duel to the start line. Both these things may be true, but neither of them are your destination.

In business, nearly every company has a “strategy” or preferred “strategic direction”. Far fewer have a clear destination. As the pace of change continues to increase, and the clamour for overnight performance gets louder by the day, the only way to escape the confusion of short-termism is to look further ahead.

In The Accidental Circumnavigation of Sark, we share a real life story of the perils of strategy without a clear understanding of the destination, from an Easter weekend sixteen years ago. Dramatic technological innovation and crazy 23-year-old innovators are changing the rules of the game for the world’s largest businesses at a thrilling pace, making the lessons from this adventure more important than ever before.

Meanwhile critical elections loom in the USA, UK and Australia, and China’s thirteenth five year plan will be unveiled within months. Daily, politicians face the vortex of a daily media cycle, grasping hour by hour for the next sound bite. But without the guiding light of a true destination, there is great risk that they will be judged as standing for nothing more than their latest quote. Show less

Australia is in crisis. Not economically – despite slowing growth, the domestic outlook is still one to which nearly all other major economies can only aspire. As one senior diplomat put it last week, “Australian growth is slowing to a pace that we are still striving to achieve”. Whether judged by economic growth, or the budget position, or debt to GDP, Australia is enormously more resilient than many other major nations. Of course this is no cause for complacency – it remains important to… Show more

Australia is in crisis. Not economically – despite slowing growth, the domestic outlook is still one to which nearly all other major economies can only aspire. As one senior diplomat put it last week, “Australian growth is slowing to a pace that we are still striving to achieve”. Whether judged by economic growth, or the budget position, or debt to GDP, Australia is enormously more resilient than many other major nations. Of course this is no cause for complacency – it remains important to bring the budget back into balance in due course. But when it comes to the country’s mindset, it is surely time to hit the reboot button. Show less

We often hear people say that the world is changing so rapidly that it is becoming hard to imagine what the world will be like in five or ten years time. But this is not an excuse that really interests the market. While the pace of change does indeed continue to accelerate in many industries, leaders in business and government are expected to make the right choices no matter how complex the picture.

So how do you predict the future? The good news is that some parts of the crystal ball… Show more

We often hear people say that the world is changing so rapidly that it is becoming hard to imagine what the world will be like in five or ten years time. But this is not an excuse that really interests the market. While the pace of change does indeed continue to accelerate in many industries, leaders in business and government are expected to make the right choices no matter how complex the picture.

So how do you predict the future? The good news is that some parts of the crystal ball are amazingly clear. A revolution is already under way which will both create and destroy hundreds of billions of dollars of value over the next decade or so. It is, without doubt, the single biggest opportunity for major outperformance or underperformance, that there has been since the advent of motorised transport and electric power. The impacts on societies will be profound, and the opportunities for emerging economies that today still do not have universal access to cars and electric light are extraordinary.

The Future Is Already Here tells the story of this revolution, the seeds of which were sown decades ago. The evidence that the revolution is under way is surprisingly strong and clear if you look in the right places. As with the internet revolution of the last couple of decades, the incumbents are better placed than anyone to win in this new world. Not only do they already have the money, and the organisational capacity, but they already have the paying customers. But will they seize the opportunity? Will they be bold and rebuild new businesses aligned with the future? Or will they cling on grimly to the status quo, accelerating into the future whilst looking firmly in the rear view mirror? Show less

Australia has a pressing need for substantial infrastructure investment to support the nation’s long-term growth. Key areas include metropolitan road and rail transport networks, long distance inter-city travel, social infrastructure such as hospitals and schools, and national fibre consumer telecommunications.

In the post-GFC environment, financing constraints mean that traditional public private partnership models cannot be used for projects significantly larger than $2bn to $3bn… Show more

Australia has a pressing need for substantial infrastructure investment to support the nation’s long-term growth. Key areas include metropolitan road and rail transport networks, long distance inter-city travel, social infrastructure such as hospitals and schools, and national fibre consumer telecommunications.

In the post-GFC environment, financing constraints mean that traditional public private partnership models cannot be used for projects significantly larger than $2bn to $3bn. Indeed, for these projects the choice of a conventional PPP may constrain competition, increase pricing and place additional pressure on government balance sheets. In this report, we explore new approaches to funding and financing major infrastructure projects. Show less

Much is written about the increasing pace of change in technology, science and similar fields. But every once in a while there are quantum leaps, which result in paradigm shifts that change entire industries. The personal computer was born in the 1970s, but didn't become "online" until widespread interconnection of computer networks in the 1990s. In “Abbey Road Revisited”, we explore the critical role that radical innovation has in the creation of business value.

And there's more. In a… Show more

Much is written about the increasing pace of change in technology, science and similar fields. But every once in a while there are quantum leaps, which result in paradigm shifts that change entire industries. The personal computer was born in the 1970s, but didn't become "online" until widespread interconnection of computer networks in the 1990s. In “Abbey Road Revisited”, we explore the critical role that radical innovation has in the creation of business value.

And there's more. In a world first, if you print this article out, it showcases the amazing new print browser technology from www.netpage.com. Show less

Have you ever dropped money in the bin by mistake? The truth is, nearly everything that we throw out has real value. Waste in Australia is currently seen as exactly that – a by-product with no intrinsic value, but with significant and growing costs of disposal. And there is a lot of it – about 50 million tonnes a year.

Every individual, government and company produces waste. They then incur significant expenses as councils and waste managers dig a hole and bury it. And there are… Show more

Have you ever dropped money in the bin by mistake? The truth is, nearly everything that we throw out has real value. Waste in Australia is currently seen as exactly that – a by-product with no intrinsic value, but with significant and growing costs of disposal. And there is a lot of it – about 50 million tonnes a year.

Every individual, government and company produces waste. They then incur significant expenses as councils and waste managers dig a hole and bury it. And there are substantial environmental impacts. Waste dumped into landfills emits methane, which is 25 times more potent than CO2, as a greenhouse gas. Toxins present in waste also have the potential to contaminate surrounding soil and groundwater. As a result, landfills have potentially very substantial long term remediation costs. Unsurprisingly, the cost of landfill has increased significantly over the last decade, and this has been further exacerbated by government levies and the introduction of a carbon price. All this portrays waste as a problem to be managed, with rising costs and rising potential liabilities.

In the Free energy! How much money is buried in landfill?”, we highlight that there’s an entirely different perspective on waste – one where it is a valuable, reusable resource in a resource-constrained world. Importantly, this illustrates the wider issue that increased environmental responsibility can actually improve profits and reduce risks, making the commercial decision as to which path to follow a straightforward one. Show less

Governments around the world are confronted by a classic Keynesian liquidity trap. Faced with a second great depression, is there any amount of extra liquidity or quantitative easing that is enough to spark a return to borrowing, investment and growth?

For Australia, the position is very different. Described recently by GE's Jeff Immelt as 'the world's unhappiest successful country', the Lucky Country is at a crossroads. We see much more opportunity for Australia than we see risk, but it… Show more

Governments around the world are confronted by a classic Keynesian liquidity trap. Faced with a second great depression, is there any amount of extra liquidity or quantitative easing that is enough to spark a return to borrowing, investment and growth?

For Australia, the position is very different. Described recently by GE's Jeff Immelt as 'the world's unhappiest successful country', the Lucky Country is at a crossroads. We see much more opportunity for Australia than we see risk, but it will take strong political and corporate leadership to realise this.

In "Hopenomics or Leadership", we highlight three key areas where near term decisions will define Australia's long term future. Show less

On 31st July, the lights went out for over 600 million people in India, following a failure of the power grid in 20 of the country's 28 States. Various causes were cited, including low coal supply, low rainfall in the catchments for India's hydro energy generators, failures in India's energy infrastructure and individual States overdrawing from the system. The precise timing, in the middle of the Indian summer, was unsurprising.

Meanwhile, July was the hottest month on record in mainland… Show more

On 31st July, the lights went out for over 600 million people in India, following a failure of the power grid in 20 of the country's 28 States. Various causes were cited, including low coal supply, low rainfall in the catchments for India's hydro energy generators, failures in India's energy infrastructure and individual States overdrawing from the system. The precise timing, in the middle of the Indian summer, was unsurprising.

Meanwhile, July was the hottest month on record in mainland USA. One associated impact has been the worst drought since 1956. Nearly 90% of the primary corn and soybean belt has been significantly impacted, leading to substantial crop losses.

Neither of these events are evidence in themselves of the extent or pace of climate change. They do, however, provide strong examples of the human and financial risks of changing weather patterns. This has prompted us to reflect on the state of play of Governmental initiatives around the world to drive changes in commercial and consumer behaviour. Show less