Tobias Feakin

What will the next 30 years mean for economics and trade? Together with the UK Ministry of Defence’s Defence Futures, I hosted a business briefing with 🇬🇧 regional business leaders yesterday to discuss strategic trends, opportunities, and geostrategic risks in the Asia Pacific from 2025-2055. Thank you to our speakers Colonel Colonel Joachim Isacsson OBE Richard Johnson and Pamela Qiu for your insights, and Colonel Eddie Maskell-Pedersen CEng FIET for moderating the conversation. Check out the Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055 publication 👇 https://lnkd.in/e8cdFi7e

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As the Department of State leans into a new foreign assistance framework, reportedly with greater reliance on streamlined GSA vehicles, we may all need to take a hard look at our indirect cost structures and business systems. The writing is on the wall: if fixed-price becomes the dominant mode, the days of 2.5–3.0 wrap rates are numbered. Anecdotally, I hear that even among current State contractors, 1.5 is the norm, with 1.6–1.8 increasingly rare birds. On the assistance side, should the 15% indirect cost cap materialise across all federal grants, then the kitchen-sink approach to indirects, everything but the office dog thrown into the "pool", will become untenable. Fixed-amount awards are likely to make an early appearance (or at least they should) particularly if State brings on seasoned former USAID AOs (and there’s no shortage of that talent currently untapped and on the sidelines) Regardless of whether the cap becomes formalised, the trend is clear: lean, accountable, and directly-billed cost structures will win the day. Grants, after all, are not vehicles for profit, and padding is unlikely to survive in an era of scrutiny and speed. Smaller, efficiency-driven firms, like SoCha, Banyan, and others may find themselves unusually well-positioned. Their nimble structures and operational discipline could well be the model for the rest of us. Adaptability, not legacy systems, will define this next chapter. The dinosaurs may have had strong bones, but they still went extinct. 🦖 🦕 🦕 #ForeignAssistance #StateDepartment #FixedPrice #GrantsManagement #IndirectCosts #NewEra #DevelopmentBusiness #EfficiencyMatters

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Space logistics: why rules matter for safety, security and sustainability - my Australian Strategic Policy Institute Special Report argues that without shared norms, dual-use nature of RPOs can undermine trust and stability in space. We need to develop norms, build trust and reduce miscalculation.

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The right tone & very important -from Merz. But needs action to back it up. Massive boost to defence, nuclear deterrent included, but focus on emerging defence tech to accelerate combat power increases & drive econ growth & tech leadership.

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