Andrea M Maechler

💡 Good statistics are accurate, timely, consistent and comparable. Only then statistics can be the unbiased reality check needed for responsible decision making. In my ECB blog post I look back at past mistakes and what Europe has learned from them. 👉 Read it here: https://lnkd.in/eraPhjrw #ECBstats #Data #StatisticalInnovation

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Interview by Ritika Gupta at #CNBC on #Eurozone https://lnkd.in/eAyQp_g6 (Interview from min 9:30) I was in the Studio of CNBC in London for an interview about eurozone #inflation, growth, #ECB rate policy and the question if the ECB would activate the Transmission Protection Instrument (#TPI). In short - Inflation: stable this year due to disinflationary forces like EUR/USD and US-Tariffs, next year higher than 2.5% due to structural issues which persistent (demographics related labor shortage, deglobalisation making supply chains more expensive, climate change protection measures like higher CO2 prices) - growth: diverging picture especially in 2026, with Spain (1.9%) and Germany (1.5%) at the upper end and France and Italy only at 0,6%. Growth in Germany not so sustainable, because part of the special infrastructure fund is misused - ECB interest rate policy: One interest rate cut this year in the cards, but a close call. Second half of next year two rate cuts due to higher inflation - France and TPI: when push comes to shove, the ECB will certainly act by purchasing French government bonds to defend the euro and to buy time.

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Monetary policy operational frameworks encompass the tools and mechanisms central banks use to affect interest rates and provide liquidity to the financial sector. Operational frameworks significantly influence banks’ incentives and the broader financial system. In the latest BIS Quarterly Review, Paolo Cavallino, Mathias Drehmann, Richard Finlay and Julie Remache introduce a new taxonomy based on two key dimensions: the marginal cost of holding reserves and aggregate reserve levels. Applying this taxonomy to current frameworks uncovers surprising similarities between seemingly distinct systems and highlights how similar designs can yield different outcomes. This provides a more granular approach to understanding and comparing operational frameworks across jurisdictions. Read the full article to discover how these insights affect central banks worldwide. https://bit.ly/47Lk4Qk #BISQuarterly

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Supervision often seems to follow the logic of portfolio management: find the “optimal” level of risk. Too little risk and growth suffers; too much and instability follows. It is a comforting idea — and a misleading one. The risks that matter most cannot be measured with any reliability. When we try to measure such risks, the data that models rely on describe day-to-day fluctuations, not the shocks that bring down institutions or entire systems. By translating uncertainty into numbers and enforcing them as rules, supervision risks creating an Illusion of Control. Institutions adapt to the metrics, not to the underlying uncertainty, and stability becomes fragility. Better to shy away from optimisation and focus instead on making the system resilient. Borrow the basic principle of finance: diversification. Read the full essay here: https://lnkd.in/dCWkRCuN

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Ahead of the IMF Annual Meetings, I published a new Euronomics column at the ESM to offer my perspective on the key risks and challenges facing the euro area in a shifting geoeconomic order. 📌 The US-EU trade deal signed this summer helped limit immediate downside risks and stabilise transatlantic relations. But it does not resolve longer-term vulnerabilities. Europe’s competitiveness is eroding, and trade diversion is accelerating. This calls for a stronger and more coordinated policy response to strengthen strategic sectors and reinforce our economic resilience. 📌 Defence spending is rising sharply across Europe, in line with new NATO commitments. This is a necessary step to build up our strategic autonomy. But it also implies higher debt levels and future challenges in engineering strong fiscal adjustments. With buffers already stretched, the path ahead will require careful prioritisation and credible medium-term frameworks. 📌 To address these challenges, Europe needs a nimble policy framework that delivers fiscal sustainability, deepens the single market, and accelerates the Savings and Investments Union. 📌 Appropriate financing of EU initiatives and European public goods will be essential. The recent proposals on the Savings and Investments Union and the multi-annual financial framework are commendable steps in this direction. Read my latest Euronomics column here 👉 https://lnkd.in/ejS9Awbr #IMFMeetings #EuroArea #FiscalPolicy #StrategicAutonomy #Competitiveness #Geopolitics #Euronomics #EuropeanUnion Cédric Crelo Anabela Reis Juliana Dahl Kalin Anev Janse Giovanni Callegari Ermal Hitaj Pilar Castrillo Beatrice WEDER DI MAURO Román Arjona Jeromin Zettelmeyer Debora Revoltella Oscar Arce Moritz Schularick

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