Tracing day-zero and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A compartmental modelling and numerical optimization approach
Fig 4
Cumulative number of deaths resulting from simulations based on the results obtained by fitting the daily new cases of deaths from February 21 until the 8th of March.
The validation of the model was performed using the reported data of confirmed cases from March 9 to March 19 (shaded area) by taking (1-0.4)(1-0.2) reduction in the “effective” transmission rate (see in Methodology) to the lockdown of March 8. Dots correspond to the reported data of confirmed deaths.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240649.g004