OECD Economics Department working papers, Jul 1, 2010
The 2007-2009 period has been characterised by an oil shock followed by a financial crisis. Highe... more The 2007-2009 period has been characterised by an oil shock followed by a financial crisis. Higher oil prices and the prospect of higher borrowing costs are likely to reduce the productive potential of OECD economies. The present study provides illustrative numerical estimates of the impact under different scenarios using a stylised model based on a production function. In a scenario where real borrowing costs for firms return to their 1991-2001 average as opposed to staying at the level at which the capital stock in place at the end of 2007 had been invested, the impact on equilibrium GDP could be in the order of 2%. If the real oil price stays at $80 per barrel, up from the $50 average at which the capital stock in place in 2007 had been invested, the impact on equilibrium GDP could be in the order of 1%.
Hybridity in Price and Quantity Instruments in Greenhouse Gas Emission Permits
Economie & prévision, 2002
Under uncertainty regarding marginal abatement costs, a market for pollution rights is not effici... more Under uncertainty regarding marginal abatement costs, a market for pollution rights is not efficient in dealing with cost risks. The paper presents a hybrid instrument in which the market price is bounded by a floor price via a subsidy and a cap price via a tax. The optimal instrument is computed in an analytical case study. In light of arguments against subsidies, an asymmetric instrument with a tax cap and no price floor is introduced and the optimum is determined. Hybrid and asymmetric instruments are seen to be particularly appropriate to the specific nature of climate change. Other possible combinations of taxes and permits are also examined.
Les données statistiques concernant Israël sont fournies par et sous la responsabilité des autori... more Les données statistiques concernant Israël sont fournies par et sous la responsabilité des autorités israéliennes compétentes. L'utilisation de ces données par l'OCDE est sans préjudice du statut des hauteurs du Golan, de Jérusalem-Est et des colonies de peuplement israéliennes en Cisjordanie aux termes du droit international. Le 3 mai 2018, le Conseil de l'OCDE a invité la Lituanie à devenir Membre de l'Organisation. Au moment de la rédaction du présent document, la Lituanie n'avait pas encore déposé son instrument d'adhésion à la Convention relative à l'OCDE. En conséquence, la Lituanie ne figure pas dans la liste des Membres de l'OCDE et n'est pas prise en compte dans les agrégats statistiques établis pour la zone OCDE. Le 25 mai 2018, le Conseil de l'OCDE a invité la Colombie à devenir Membre de l'Organisation. Au moment de la rédaction du présent document, la Colombie n'avait pas encore déposé son instrument d'adhésion à la Convention relative à l'OCDE. En conséquence, la Colombie ne figure pas dans la liste des Membres de l'OCDE et n'est pas prise en compte dans les agrégats statistiques établis pour la zone OCDE. Ce document et toute carte qu'il peut comprendre sont sans préjudice du statut de tout territoire, de la souveraineté s'exerçant sur ce dernier, du tracé des frontières et limites internationales, et du nom de tout territoire, ville ou région.
OECD Economics Department working papers, Dec 20, 2019
This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status o... more This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2 ECO/WKP(2019)59 HOW RESPONSIVE ARE HOUSING MARKETS IN THE OECD? NATIONAL LEVEL ESTIMATES Unclassified OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works.
OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of i... more OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works.
The OECD Economic Policy Paper Series is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General... more The OECD Economic Policy Paper Series is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. Earlier versions of this paper were discussed at the Working Party No. 1 of the OECD Economic Policy Committee, the OECD Economic Policy Committee, the OECD Committee on Financial Markets and seminars of the New Approaches to Economic Challenges initiative and the OECD Economic Development and Review Committee. The authors would like to thank the participants for their feedback. They are also indebted to
Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques Organisation for Economic Cooperation... more Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development 16-Jun-2015 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ _____________ English-Or. English ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT FINANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN OECD AND G20 COUNTRIES ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WORKING PAPERS No. 1223 By Boris Cournède and Oliver Denk OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s).
OECD Economics Department working papers, Jun 25, 2019
This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status o... more This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2 ECO/WKP(2019)24 HOUSING MARKETS AND MACROECONOMIC RISKS Unclassified OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works.
The volume collects the essays presented at the 16th Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banc... more The volume collects the essays presented at the 16th Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banca di?½Italia in Perugia from 3 to 5 April 2014. The workshop had two main objectives: (i) examining the changes that public policies should undertake in the coming years to adapt to the challenging new environment; (ii) assessing policy responses to the crisis. In many countries the recent crisis accelerated pre-existing trends and made even more urgent a rethinking of the tax and welfare systems. The workshop contributed to this reassessment offering insights on the consequences of specific reforms carried out in Europe and elsewhere. The reaction to the euro-area sovereign debt crisis included fiscal adjustments as well as institutional reforms. In the workshop, theoretical and empirical works examined timing, effectiveness and composition of the fiscal consolidations carried out, as well as the recent reform of EU governance. The first session focused on the effects of both tax and ex...
The OECD Economic Policy Paper Series is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General... more The OECD Economic Policy Paper Series is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. Earlier versions of this paper were discussed at the Working Party No. 1 of the OECD Economic Policy Committee, the OECD Economic Policy Committee, the OECD Committee on Financial Markets and seminars of the New Approaches to Economic Challenges initiative and the OECD Economic Development and Review Committee. The authors would like to thank the participants for their feedback. They are also indebted to
The OECD Economic Policy Paper Series is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General... more The OECD Economic Policy Paper Series is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. This paper was written by Boris Cournède and Álvaro Pina under the supervision of Alain de Serres. Statistical and simulation analysis was conducted by Antoine Goujard.
This paper addresses the question of whether and how monetary policy ease may lead to excesses in... more This paper addresses the question of whether and how monetary policy ease may lead to excesses in financial and real asset markets and ultimately result in financial dislocation. It presents evidence suggesting that periods when short-term interest rates have been persistently and significantly below what Taylor rules would prescribe are correlated with increases in asset prices, especially as regards housing, though no systematic effects are identified on equity markets. Significant asset price increases, however, can also occur when interest rates are in line with Taylor rules, associated with periods of financial deregulation and/or innovation. The paper argues that accommodating monetary policy over the period 2002-2005, in combination with rapid financial market innovation, would seem in retrospect to have been among the factors behind the run-up in asset prices and consequent financial imbalances-the (partial) unwinding of which helped trigger the 2007 financial market turmoil. Moreover, the paper points out that in certain situations policy rates may be a rather blunt tool for dealing with both the build-up and aftermath of financial imbalances, raising the question whether "macro-prudential" regulation could be useful.
Complete document available on OLIS in its original format This document and any map included her... more Complete document available on OLIS in its original format This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty o... more This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
OECD Economics Department working papers, Aug 24, 2009
There is a case, but there are also counter-arguments. With sufficient forward-looking behaviour ... more There is a case, but there are also counter-arguments. With sufficient forward-looking behaviour among firms and households, price-level targeting can act as a powerful built-in stabiliser through automatic shifts in inflation expectations. This stabilisation mechanism reduces the need for large shifts in policy rates, alleviating the risk of hitting the zero lower bound of nominal interest rates and falling into a liquidity trap. Furthermore, credible price-level targeting can support capital accumulation by protecting the long-run purchasing power of money and reducing the inflation risk premium embedded in actual long-term real interest rates. However, price-level targeting can imply welfare-reducing policy-induced output volatility in situations where the degree of forward-looking behaviour is very low. The self-regulating capacity of price-level targeting can be undermined if central banks are not fully credible. Besides, aggressive inflation targeting can replicate some of (but not all) the benefits of price-level targeting. On balance, the case for adopting price-level targeting is not clear-cut, all the more so since transition costs are likely to be significant.
The political economy of delaying fiscal consolidation Over the next decades, many OECD countries... more The political economy of delaying fiscal consolidation Over the next decades, many OECD countries are anticipating large increases in public spending as a result of population ageing and other long-term structural trends. The need to put public finances on a sustainable footing is widely recognised, but progress has been uneven and slow. Some policy makers may feel that action can be deferred for a few years at little cost because of the long-term nature of the problem. This paper questions this perception by proposing a model of the political costs of consolidating public finances. The main finding is that even a short delay increases political cost of consolidation quite markedly when ultimately policy makers are facing a deadline by which sustainability must be restored. The conclusion is very robust to changes in assumptions and specification. A variant of the model shows that with an infinite horizon the incentive to consolidate is weaker, which highlights the importance of setting a deadline. This paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of the Euro area (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/euroarea).
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