Papers by Michael Lawrence

Omega, 2011
Restrictiveness and guidance have been proposed as methods for improving the performance of users... more Restrictiveness and guidance have been proposed as methods for improving the performance of users of support systems. In many companies computerized support systems are used in demand forecasting enabling interventions based on management judgment to be applied to statistical forecasts. However, the resulting forecasts are often 'sub-optimal' because many judgmental adjustments are made when they are not required. An experiment was used to investigate whether restrictiveness or guidance in a support system leads to more effective use of judgment. Users received statistical forecasts of the demand for products that were subject to promotions. In the restrictiveness mode small judgmental adjustments to these forecasts were prohibited (research indicates that these waste effort and may damage accuracy). In the guidance mode users were advised to make adjustments in promotion periods, but not to adjust in non-promotion periods. A control group of users were not subject to restrictions and received no guidance. The results showed that neither restrictiveness nor guidance led to improvements in accuracy. While restrictiveness reduced unnecessary adjustments, it deterred desirable adjustments and also encouraged over-large adjustments so that accuracy was damaged. Guidance encouraged more desirable system use, but was often ignored. Surprisingly, users indicated it was less acceptable than restrictiveness.
Researching Sales Forecasting Practice
International Journal of Forecasting, 2003
Sales forecasting is a common activity in most companies affecting operations, marketing and plan... more Sales forecasting is a common activity in most companies affecting operations, marketing and planning. Little is known about its practice. Mentzer and his colleagues have developed a research programme over twenty years aimed at rectifying the gap in knowledge. Most recently, in the Mentzer et al. (2002) paper they have demonstrated with supporting evidence the use of a sales forecasting

Decision Support Systems, 2006
Forecasts play a key role in the management of the supply chain. In most organisations such forec... more Forecasts play a key role in the management of the supply chain. In most organisations such forecasts form part of an information system on which other functions such as scheduling, resource planning and marketing depend. Forecast accuracy is, therefore, an important component in the delivery of an effective supply chain. Typically, the forecasts are produced by integrating managerial judgment with quantitative forecasts within a forecasting support system (FSS). However, there is much evidence that this integration is often carried out poorly with deleterious effects on accuracy. This study considers the role that a well-designed FSS might have in improving this situation. It integrates the literatures on forecasting and decision support to explain the causes of the problem and to identify design features of FSSs that might help to ameliorate it. An assessment is made of the extent to which currently available business forecasting packages, which are widely employed in supply chain management, possess these features.
© Paul Goodwin, Win Yee Lee, Robert Fildes, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Michael Lawrence All ri... more © Paul Goodwin, Win Yee Lee, Robert Fildes, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Michael Lawrence All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission, provided that full acknowledgement is given.

Acta Crystallographica Section A Foundations of Crystallography, 2002
The mature empty capsid of phage HK97 is composed of 420 protein units in an icosahedral T=7 latt... more The mature empty capsid of phage HK97 is composed of 420 protein units in an icosahedral T=7 lattice. The subunits are covalently linked into five-and six-membered rings through a lysine-asparagine cross-link. These rings are topologically linked, connecting all 420 subunits into a single stable unit. The coat protein has a unique fold and consists of two domains and two extended regions responsible for a complicated pattern of interactions in the mature capsid. The protein shell undergoes large conformational changes during particle maturation. In the mature shell, there are only few differences in the quasi-equivalent five-fold and six-fold interactions, while the capsids initially are formed by skewed hexamers. We have now refined the crystal structure of the mature capsids to 3.44 Å resolution to analyze the interactions between the subunits and correlate this with the low-resolution structures of the intermediates in the maturation process.
Uploads
Papers by Michael Lawrence