Dino Canuti

Death by a 1000 cuts is getting real now The latest NielsenIQ AMJ'25 quarter data just confirmed what we have been seeing on the ground for months. The David vs Goliath story in FMCG is not just a narrative anymore, it's cold, hard numbers. Small, nimble D2C players defeating the massive, seemingly unbeatable giant. In FMCG, this means ₹100Cr startups outmaneuvering ₹10,000Cr legacy companies and taking share from them. 1. Small players are not just surviving; they are winning big.  Companies with sales under ₹100Cr are posting double-digit volume growth while the giants are struggling to keep up. This is not about being scrappy or bootstrapped anymore. This is about speed, agility, and understanding what consumers actually want versus what marketing departments think they want. 2. The real action has moved away from metros. While metro cities have shown consumption slowdown for 5 straight quarters, TC2 + Rest of Urban markets are growing at 12% volume growth. Small players are specifically winning in these markets because we understand local preferences, can pivot quickly, and don't need three layers of approvals to launch a region-specific variant. 3. We are living in the age of democratized growth. Digital marketing means a ₹50Cr brand can reach the same audience as a ₹5000Cr brand. Efficient supply chains mean we can get products to Tier 2 cities as fast as the giants can. The traditional advantages of scale - distribution, marketing reach, supplier power, are becoming less relevant every quarter. 4. The giants are feeling the pressure. Large players saw their consumption growth improve from 1.8% in JFM'25 this quarter, but it was largely price-led growth. They are raising prices to maintain revenues while small players are gaining actual market share through volume growth and consumers’ love. This is not a temporary shift. Digital tools, efficient logistics, and changing consumer behavior have permanently altered the competitive landscape. Every quarter, the data shows the same story - small, focused, agile brands are taking market share from legacy giants. The death by a thousand cuts is real. Each small brand taking 0.1% market share, each local player winning in their region, each nimble company launching faster than established players. Together, we are rewriting the rules of FMCG. #Entrepreneurship #D2C #Startups

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We’re entering the next era of CPG growth. And every strategy ultimately comes down to five levers: 1. Distribution reach – more outlets, better coverage. 2. Pricing power – charge more per unit. 3. Cost productivity – take cost out, protect margins. 4. Innovation – new products, formats, adjacencies. 5. Brand building – equity, salience, loyalty. Pricing power is tapped out — consumers are trading down. Cost take-out only defends margins — it doesn’t generate growth. Innovation is costly and hit-or-miss — not every new SKU lands. Brand building can’t win without availability — equity without reach is just potential. That leaves distribution — the most underleveraged lever today. Traditional trade still drives 70%+ of sales in many markets. But it’s also the most underserved channel: Fragmented coverage → Millions of mom-and-pop outlets, hard to reach efficiently. Manual ordering → Retailers rely on rep visits or phone calls, leading to lost sales when stock runs out. Inconsistent pricing → No transparency, promotions don’t trickle down. Low visibility → CPGs can’t see what’s selling until it’s too late. High cost-to-serve → Each incremental case sold comes with disproportionate overhead. In short: it’s messy, fragmented, and riddled with structural inefficiencies. Which is exactly why it’s the biggest untapped growth pool — and why eB2B is such a game-changer. That’s the argument I lay out in my article, recently republished by CPGmatters.com → https://lnkd.in/em9S37_B So I’ll ask: which lever do you see as the next untapped source of CPG growth? John Karolefski

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Promotion expectations have changed. Five or ten years ago, most people expected to grow steadily. Today, younger talent wants to move faster—with more opportunity, more responsibility, and clearer timelines. We don’t try to “manage” that expectation away. We meet it with structure and honesty. At NielsenIQ, that means being upfront about what’s possible: - When promotion cycles happen - What performance actually looks like at the next level - What roles are available—and what gaps need to be closed Clear conversations about what it takes build motivation, even if promotion timelines aren’t fast. It also means giving people space to explore. When someone raises their hand for a role outside their track, we talk through where they fit, where they need to grow, and what kind of support will help them get there. That’s how we stay honest about growth and serious about development.

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We’re in the thick of earnings season, so it’s a good time to look at the scores on the doors. The chart below shows the year-over-year change for total sales. As usual, there are winners and losers. Here are some of the learnings so far… 📈 Q2 had momentum. Despite economic concerns and a skittish consumer, spending remained resilient. Yes, some of this is driven by inflation, but the growth is there for retailers to capitalize on. 👎🏼 Most players in decline have propositional problems: uninspiring assortments, lackluster brands, misaligned pricing, weak service, too much friction, and so forth. In other words, their value equations are broken; they can’t simply blame the economy. 💰 For retailers with weak value equations, the challenge is that consumers are now more attuned to value. The retail economy is chugging along, but underlying consumer behaviors continue to shift with shoppers taking a more considered approach to buying. If you’re not delivering value, you’re more likely to get punished. ⬇️ Retailers that help consumers save are performing well. Off-price and resale both feature strongly in the winners’ enclosure; Walmart had a great quarter. But their success isn’t simply about offering cheap stuff. It requires effort to create a compelling and desirable assortment. 👗 And value isn’t just about low price or saving. Brands like Ralph Lauren, Tapestry, and Revolve are performing well by offering accessible luxury that makes consumer feel good. They are also capturing a growing share of spend from younger consumers. 🛋️ Home-related sectors have seen a bounce back. Part of this reflects consumers pulling forward big-ticket purchases in anticipation of tariff-driven price hikes. Part of it is simply the purchase cycle rebounding from its nadir. More retail results to come in the coming weeks. But, all in all, Q2 looks to have been solid for retail. #retail #retailnews #earnings #economy #consumers #shopping #value

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