About
Author of #1 rated book on commodities, "Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading,"…
Articles by Alex (Sasha)
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Sack your quant!
Sack your quant!
Quantitative strategies have become increasingly popular in investment management Empirical evidence suggests that they…
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Why hedging is key!
Why hedging is key!
Lately I got into arguments about the proper role of hedging with some individuslas who, I thought, should know better.…
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Is a major stock market correction imminent? A historical perspective
Is a major stock market correction imminent? A historical perspective
On the back of the longest bull market in history - and not far from its peak valuations - is a major corection…
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U.S. Inflation Report For February 2019 From Altana Wealth
U.S. Inflation Report For February 2019 From Altana Wealth
Summary Inflation is far and away the greatest macroeconomic risk facing investors. Recent inflation newsflow reflects…
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Asset valuation: the extraordinary lesson of China warrants bubble
Asset valuation: the extraordinary lesson of China warrants bubble
China warrants bubble is one of the most spectacular - and perhaps best documented - episodes in capital markets…
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From 2016 we made over $428 per ounce trading palladium futures. Here's how.
From 2016 we made over $428 per ounce trading palladium futures. Here's how.
Palladium prices have nearly tripled from 2016, from under $500/ounce to $1380 today. Although we trade in 30 different…
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Putin's 17 years at helm: the scorecard
Putin's 17 years at helm: the scorecard
Megyn Kelly's interview with Putin at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum made me cringe a bit.
9 Comments -
About that 97% scientific consensus on climate change...
About that 97% scientific consensus on climate change...
The idea that 97% of experts agree that climate change is a man-made phenomenon has been used incessantly in the media…
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Altana Wealth U.S. Inflation Watch - September 2016
Altana Wealth U.S. Inflation Watch - September 2016
Summary: We still have no alarming signs of inflation on the horizon. Producer prices remain subdued while consumer…
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We're heading for stagflation!
We're heading for stagflation!
Last week we learned that U.S.
5 Comments
Activity
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This chart distills a fundamental truth about modern economies — there is no such thing as a low-energy rich country. Across every nation, economic…
This chart distills a fundamental truth about modern economies — there is no such thing as a low-energy rich country. Across every nation, economic…
Liked by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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I’m not a religious person, but it may yet turn out that the New Testament, Revelation 13, is correct where it says: “He causes all, both small and…
I’m not a religious person, but it may yet turn out that the New Testament, Revelation 13, is correct where it says: “He causes all, both small and…
Liked by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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I’m 49. Here are 32 lessons I wish I knew at 18: 1. Building your self-esteem around being right all the time will lead to poor…
I’m 49. Here are 32 lessons I wish I knew at 18: 1. Building your self-esteem around being right all the time will lead to poor…
Liked by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
Experience
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Krainer Analytics
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Education
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Schiller International University
Incomplete
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Publications
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Commodity price risk, profits, and value creation
Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance
See publicationCommodity (or FX) price hedging can be the most powerful way for companies to generate profits, shareholder value, and gain hard to match competitive advantage. The case is remarkably compelling.
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Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading
Equilibrium Monaco
See publicationThis book condenses the author's two decades of broad research into the key aspects of speculation in financial and commodity futures markets. It investigates questions such as: - What are the risks and opportunities in trading futures? - Can we learn enough about market fundamentals to have an edge? - Why do most market professionals by far underperform market benchmarks? - Why do so many speculators ultimately lose? - Can economics help us overcome uncertainty? Can quantitative analysis? - Do…
This book condenses the author's two decades of broad research into the key aspects of speculation in financial and commodity futures markets. It investigates questions such as: - What are the risks and opportunities in trading futures? - Can we learn enough about market fundamentals to have an edge? - Why do most market professionals by far underperform market benchmarks? - Why do so many speculators ultimately lose? - Can economics help us overcome uncertainty? Can quantitative analysis? - Do markets move in trends? - Can trends be exploited to consistently outperform market benchmarks? - Can trend following generate value for hedgers? - What can nature teach us about mastering uncertainty and risk? This book, woven together with the author's personal story of discovery from a humble assistant at an oil trading company to a hedge fund manager, delves deep into these and many more questions. More importantly, it provides concrete and definitive solutions as well as the results of putting those solutions to the test against the global commodity and financial markets. A promise: the material is concise, non-technical and fluff-free.
Languages
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English
Native or bilingual proficiency
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Croatian
Native or bilingual proficiency
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French
Professional working proficiency
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Italian
Professional working proficiency
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Spanish
Professional working proficiency
More activity by Alex (Sasha)
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An excellent condensed history lesson by Jeffrey Sachs. They never taught us this in school.
An excellent condensed history lesson by Jeffrey Sachs. They never taught us this in school.
Shared by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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How the British Empire Broke the World
How the British Empire Broke the World
Liked by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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A brief report from my participation in the 18th Verona Eurasian Economic Forum. A beautiful, spirit-lifting experience in many ways.
A brief report from my participation in the 18th Verona Eurasian Economic Forum. A beautiful, spirit-lifting experience in many ways.
Shared by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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Argentina bailout could turn out to be a fatal unforced error by the Trump administration. They made themselves vulnerable to a media scandal for a…
Argentina bailout could turn out to be a fatal unforced error by the Trump administration. They made themselves vulnerable to a media scandal for a…
Shared by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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Project EU is starting to consume itself over Project Ukraine and it’s getting ugly fast!
Project EU is starting to consume itself over Project Ukraine and it’s getting ugly fast!
Shared by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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In the West, banks started monitoring our carbon footprints. And I bet you didn't know that you had a "carbon allowance," but apparently you do.
In the West, banks started monitoring our carbon footprints. And I bet you didn't know that you had a "carbon allowance," but apparently you do.
Shared by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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Will this be the future of your country if the Digital ID Control Grid is implemented? Any politician who promotes this should be run out of office…
Will this be the future of your country if the Digital ID Control Grid is implemented? Any politician who promotes this should be run out of office…
Liked by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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In many ways, trend following is just like fishing…
In many ways, trend following is just like fishing…
Shared by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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Venezuela is in the crosshairs of Wall Street and the City of London and the stakes are beyond huge…
Venezuela is in the crosshairs of Wall Street and the City of London and the stakes are beyond huge…
Shared by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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In trading, trend following is the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty.
In trading, trend following is the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty.
Shared by Alex (Sasha) Krainer
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Michal Stupavsky, CFA
Valuation extremes do matter Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid nailed it again! The chart depicts S&P 500 Shiller cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE) and 10-year subsequent nominal and real inflation-adjusted total returns from valuation extremes, both peaks and bottoms. Investment implications for investors are unequivocally clear: Valuation extremes do matter for the mid- to long-term investment horizon! As you can see, all four valuation bottoms were followed by triple-digit 10-year subsequent returns, both nominal and real, while the last three major valuation peaks were followed by negative 10-year subsequent real inflation-adjusted returns. S&P 500 CAPE stands currently at 38x which corresponds with the 98th percentile across the whole time-series since 1881, indeed a valuation extreme again. Let’s see how the current market cycle will play out in the upcoming years.
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Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA
An interesting view on #europe by Gavekal: "The 15% #tariff rate on US imports from the European Union will hit the old continent's exporting sector. But the broader economy can count on its domestic segment to mitigate the shock. Notably, the effect of the #ECB’s interest rate cuts is becoming visible in a bank lending recovery across the #eurozone". Source: Gavekal, Macrobond
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Natalia Gurushina
The evolution of the world’s reserve currencies since 1900 (chart courtesy the IMF): => “Nothing lasts forever” - see GBP’s example before and after WW2 or => “This time it’s different” - tech innovations (such as stablecoins) will ensure that USD continues to dominate the scene for much longer
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Matteo Lombardo, CFA
This is some chart! Over the past 10 years, global AUM at asset managers have multiplied by 2.2x: around 65% of the increase (and 36% of today’s total) has come from 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 Only 20% of today’s assets are cumulative net flows (~3% CAGR of beginning of year AUMs over the decade)
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James Bennett
Was Tether's $13Bn profit a turning point for their market dominance? History tells us it could be. In 2011, the world's largest commodities trader, Glencore, IPO’d in London at a staggering $60 billion valuation — reflecting their dominant position in a relatively unkonwn sector. It made headlines globally. This was the first time that the world began to realise the bumper profits up for grabs. The result? Competitors, regulators, and resource owners all turned their attention to Glencore and to the sector. At the start of 2025, Tether revealed: --> $13 billion net profit --> $113 billion in U.S. Treasuries --> $20 billion+ in group equity Primarily derived through the issuance of their USDT stablecoin. The world took note of the quiet creation of one of the most profitable companies in history (per employee). By publicly announcing their success, Tether may have lit the same fire Glencore did in 2011. The whole world took notice, and from Stripe to Walmart, new entrants are aggressively entering the stablecoin space. Tether continues to grow in absolute terms, but has its dominance peaked? One thing is for certain - the race is very much on. H/T Javier Blas Jack Farchy for their account of Glencore in "The World for Sale", which sparked the idea for this post. References in the first comment below 👇 #Stablecoins #CrossBorderPayments #FinTech #InstitutionalAdoption
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