Frens Geuzinge

What a bumpy ride for European gas price #TTF these days. Around 10% loss over last week after several months of gains. Summer-25 gas prices were gaining strongly over the past months in expectation of state-mandated injection demand for gas storage. Last week, TTF fell promptly on rumours around a relaxation of gas storage constraints and peace talks for Ukraine. There is criticism that traders exploit the storage targets and uncertainty around them. Speculators increased their positions. Investment funds have amassed net long positions in TTF products continuously over the past year as per ESMA Commitment of Traders CoT report data. ICIS estimates speculative holdings of net long TTF positions to have increased from around zero a year ago to 290 TWh open contracts mid-February 2025. Bullish speculation heats up a tight gas market.

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What will it take to unlock sustained, long term hydrogen demand? That was the central question of the round table I had the pleasure of chairing at the World Hydrogen Summit 2025 in Rotterdam. Our panel brought together a rich mix of perspectives—developers, offtakers, financiers, and policy experts—to explore some interesting themes: 🔹 Where are we now—beyond the hydrogen ‘hype curve’? 🔹 Are we over-focusing on production and under-focusing on demand? 🔹 What’s blocking execution? 🔹 How do we share the risks across industry and government? 🔹 How do we prioritise between technologies and do we need to achieve cost parity before low carbon fuels we are successful? Key takeaways from across the session: ✔️ Demand needs to come first. We must stop treating offtake as an afterthought. ✔️ Focus on the right technologies in the right applications, based on system needs and decarbonisation drivers—not hype. ✔️ We need clearer policy signals and mandates to turn talk into reality, not just targets and roadmaps. ✔️ Risks need to be shared more fairly—across sector players, governments and consumers. ✔️ Green hydrogen alone won’t cut it—we need a full clean fuels and electrification toolbox. From my perspective at Ricardo—where we look at energy systems holistically—hydrogen is an essential part of the energy future, but it’s essential that it is treated as part of a whole-sector transition. That means aligning energy, transport, infrastructure, and built environment—not solving them in silos. Thanks again to our stellar panel and to everyone who joined the discussion. The challenge is real, but so is the momentum. Let’s keep building it—collaboratively and with purpose. Caroline Stancell, Occo Roelofsen, Dr. Hans Dieter Hermes, Suhail Kak, Vibeke Rasmussen #WorldHydrogen2025 #HydrogenEconomy #EnergyTransition #CleanFuels #WholeSystemThinking #RicardoEnergy #HydrogenDemand #EnergySystems

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This morning, I observed an interesting thing in two consecutive contracts in the Netherlands’ balancing market. For the 9Q4 contract, the unofficial imbalance price was 250 €/MWh, despite an energy deficit of around 890 MW. However, for the 10Q1 contract, with a smaller deficit of around 530 MW, the price surged to 1895 €/MWh. This is what makes the intraday and balancing markets so fascinating to me. Every hour, even every 15 minutes, comes with its own unique dynamics.

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Watch April to see where Dutch negative power prices are heading in 2025. In recent years, the number of negative power price hours in the Netherlands has surged, with each year setting a new record. Will 2025 follow the same trend, or will the slowdown in solar expansion and increased flexibility in solar parks help keep prices in check? April might give us the answer. Historically, April sees a sharp rise in negative power prices. As solar irradiance increases, the large Dutch solar PV fleet generates more electricity, pushing prices down during the day. From 2021 to 2024, the cumulative number of negative price hours (more than) doubled from the end of March to the end of April. Negative prices benefit offtakers, who get paid for offtake in these hours, but form a risk for solar and wind projects, as my colleague Simon De Clercq and I argued in an article we published two weeks ago. So far, 2025 is ahead of the current record-holder, 2024, but can it maintain its lead? We anticipate an increase in negative prices compared to last year, though staying below 600 hours. The exact numbers and the impact on solar curtailment? That’s something we share exclusively with our clients. If you’re interested, feel free to reach out! What’s your prediction? Let’s hear your bets! Aurora Energy Research #EnergyTransition #SolarPV #NegativePriceHours

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