Michael Kisser

Ten essential principles for economic policymakers outlined by econ-professor-turned-politician Andrew Leigh MP: 1) Focus on well-being, not just money 2) Think comparative advantage 3) Ignore sunk costs 4) Optimize, subject to constraints 5) Use the best evidence 6) Consider expected value 7) Think in magnitudes, not just signs 8) Ask: what is the market failure? 9) Consider the distributional consequences 10) Incentives matter Read the full article here: Andrew Leigh (2024), Ten Lessons for Economic Policymakers, Economic Papers: https://lnkd.in/ed8wQwjt https://lnkd.in/e-Z-YqYh (ungated)

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📣 New working paper alert! Sophia Kazinnik and I have released a new working paper: "FOMC In Silico: A Multi-Agent System for Monetary Policy Decision Modeling". It's the first draft of the first paper in a much larger project, but I'm excited about where we're going with it and we welcome your feedback. What is this work all about? We're building a a multi-agent framework for modeling the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision-making process, offering an in silico environment for counterfactual evaluation in monetary policy.  In other words, we're using computer simulations, leveraging advances in generative AI, to conduct experiments for monetary policy decisions. In this initial working paper, the framework combines two approaches: an LLM-based simulation and a Monte Carlo implementation of a generalized Bayesian voting model. As an example application, we include a simulation replicating the July 2025 FOMC meeting and include a political pressure scenario and a negative jobs revision scenario. The point of the paper is the introduction of the experimental sandbox - the example scenarios are just the tip of the iceberg of potential applications. We have further validation work to do, but I think you'll find the preliminary results interesting. Full paper is here: https://lnkd.in/eYRq8weG

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I am proud to represent Center for Environmental, Social, Governance Studies (CESGS) in launching the IFRS S2 Playbook, created to help your company gradually build the internal readiness needed for implementing IFRS S2. Sustainability reports have become an essential tool for companies to communicate the impact of climate change to stakeholders. IFRS S2: Climate-related Disclosures standard have been widely adopted as a guide for creating transparent and comparable sustainability reports. In Indonesia, OJK Regulation No. 51/POJK.03/2017 encourages companies to prepare sustainability reports as part of their social and environmental responsibility. In support of this, the Indonesian Institute of Accountants (IAI) developed the Sustainability Disclosure Standards (PSPK), which are based on IFRS S2 to help guide sustainability reporting in Indonesia. Implementing PSPK S2 helps companies move beyond just preparing reports with numbers and narratives, but rather focus on a commitment to ethics, transparency, and integrity. The Playbook does not jump straight into reporting but helps guide you step-by-step from adopting sustainability principles to ready for effective reporting. By following this playbook, you’ll move from awareness to building capacity, and ultimately, to creating credible and strategic climate reports. To learn more, get the IFRS S2 Playbook here: bit.ly/GET-IFRS 

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I am just back from Milan, where I joined a policy panel at the European Trade Study Group (ETSG) 2025 conference. I made three main points: 1) The trade-weighted average US import tariff has risen from 2.5% to 18.8% this year, which will lead to a significant slowdown in global trade growth. 2) The US, however, accounts for only about 14% of world merchandise imports, and roughly 72% of world trade continues to be conducted directly under the WTO’s MFN tariffs. 3) It is therefore essential that economies do not undermine rules-based trade with the rest of the world when pursuing trade deals with the US. Concretely, this means upholding MFN and avoiding arrangements that disadvantage third countries. It is also critical to manage trade diversion effects cooperatively, recognizing that it typically is a two-way street. UZH Department of Economics UBS Center for Economics in Society

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With the fall teaching season approaching, I wanted to reshare my working paper: "Understanding Market Power". This paper is a comprehensive guide to the tricky yet essential economics behind antitrust law. It is intended to be clear and broad, covering key law & econ topics in the US and the EU. I welcome your feedback in anticipation of next year's version. Link to paper https://lnkd.in/eY4bzJSN #Antitrust #Economics #CompetitionPolicy #Law

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