Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute

🌎 All eyes on COP30: what will AFII focus on?    As world leaders, international organisations, and investors gather in Belem and 🇧🇷 São Paulo for COP30, it's clear this is a pivotal moment for climate finance. Mitigation efforts face strong geopolitical headwinds: we expect adaptation, resilience, and nature protection to play a bigger role compared to earlier COPs.    👉 Our latest AFII View explores key insights and highlights some of the upcoming events taking place in Brazil next week: https://lnkd.in/ehmwfSMp   As COP30 approaches, we will be focusing on:    🔹 Innovative debt structures linked to government NDCs where AFII’s transition linker structure provides a big leap forward  🔹 Credit-enhanced mechanisms like our CORL bonds designed to support resilience investment across emerging markets and developing economies 🔹 Integrating deforestation risk into fixed income strategies and portfolio management 📘 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟑: "Deforestation and Fixed Income Markets: A Primer".  This new publication will help investors move forward as regulation, data, and market expectations rapidly evolve. You can already request your digital copy on our website.    We look forward to joining the discussions in São Paulo and sharing our insights firsthand. 🌿    #COP30 #SustainableFinance #TransitionFinance #Deforestation #FixedIncome 

𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐛𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟑𝟓 𝐍𝐃𝐂𝐬 (𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐬)[*] 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 #𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚. Frank take: Bond markets could barely care less about the UNFCCC outcomes for setting 2035 transition targets. Why? If your exposure to something is seen as static, passive, it simply does not fit into the job description to spend time analyzing it. (And before pointing fingers to fixed income people as soulless, indifferent, do you know your own country’s 2035 NDC?) At the same time, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐚𝐭 𝐚 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨, 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡-𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐧𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐲 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐟𝐮𝐥 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐬, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧… 𝐢𝐟 𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐛𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐭𝐨 𝐡𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐛𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐟𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐝𝐮𝐭𝐲. (Analogously to #inflationlinkers). To this end, we have proposed the #transitionlinker bond structure that should start getting investors interested in NDCs - skin in the game - and provide them with hedging possibilities for high-temperature scenarios. At the same time, it could provide governments (and in this case Australia) with lower cost-of-capital for execution of ambitious, low-carbon policy. And Australia is a really interesting case for transition: highly fossil fuel dependent, developed market economy looking to decarbonize. To be presented in brief at Bloomberg / Principles for Responsible Investment event in Sao Paolo on Nov 6. Grateful for lots of conversations around this in the past year and a half, and looking forward to more!   [*] See earlier research and discussions from Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute #NDC targeting bonds (2030) analyzing #Japan, #Slovenia, #Mexico, #Chile, #SouthKorea, #France, #Colombia, #Philippines, #China and so on. More to come on 2035 batch of targets.

The Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute is heading to 🇧🇷 São Paulo for an action-packed pre-COP30 week, taking the stage at events around PRI in Person (Principles for Responsible Investment). Get ready for fresh insights as we discuss the power of the bond markets to accelerate climate transition and resilience. We're also thrilled to be launching our new book, empowering investors to address deforestation risks in their fixed income portfolios. 👇 Find us at: 🗓️ Monday 3 November ⏰ 14:00 - 17:00 PM 📍Tivoli Mofarrej, SP 💡 Methane Engagement Roundtable *Environmental Defense Fund/PRI in Person side event Josephine Richardson, AFII's Head of Research, will join the conversation examining the levers available to investors to support methane reduction in the oil sector. 🔗 Register here: https://lnkd.in/e9zXFpNp 🗓️ Wednesday 5 November ⏰ 08:00 - 09:30 AM 📍 Holiday Inn São Paulo, Parque Anhembi 💡 Finance Sector Leadership on Deforestation: From Risk to Action *PRI in Person side event, hosted by Global Canopy and WWF-Brasil in partnership with Accountability Framework initiative (AFi) and Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC) Josephine Richardson will share details from our primer on deforestation debt. The discussion will focus on practical ways investors can manage deforestation risks at the portfolio level. 🔗 Register here: https://lnkd.in/eiZDAiC8 🗓️ Wednesday 5 November ⏰ 14:30 - 15:30 PM 📍 Anhembi Convention Centre, SP 💡 2E: Sustainability and alpha generation in equities and fixed income *PRI in Person main event Josephine Richardson will join a panel with two investors, exploring case studies across asset classes. This session will showcase examples where sustainability factors have been used in investment decisions with financially successful outcomes. 🔗 Register here: https://lnkd.in/e-8DDxyR 🗓️ Thursday 6 November ⏰ 08:00 - 09:00 AM 📍 Room 114, Anhembi Convention Centre, SP 💡 From Pledges to Pathways: Data for Tracking National and Corporate Transition Plans *PRI in Person side event hosted by Bloomberg Ulf G. Erlandsson, CEO, will present how government bonds linked to NDCs can provide a hedge for failed transition scenarios while incentivising governments to implement policies that support successful economy wide transitions. 🔗 Register here: https://lnkd.in/erVJbMvK ️🗓️ Thursday 6 November ⏰ 08:00 - 09:30 AM 📍 Room 113, Anhembi Convention Centre, SP 💡 Financing the Future of Agricultural Supply Chains: From Risk to Resilience *PRI in Person side event, hosted by World Economic Forum Justine Leigh-Bell, Co-CEO, will share her perspectives on the role of fixed income for delivering large scale capital for sustainable agriculture and the different types of debt products available. 🔗 Register here: https://lnkd.in/eNduGW-F

🚨 INWIT makes waves with SLB debut Italian wireless network infrastructure company INWIT S.p.A. has joined the ESG-labelled bond market with a EUR850 million Sustainability-Linked Bond (SLB) maturing in 2032, tied to a 37% reduction in Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions by 2030. ⚠️ With SLB issuance volumes still below their 2021 highs, seeing a crossover issuer (BB+/BBB-) debut an SLB is a promising sign. Our findings suggest the deal had potentially stronger relative investor demand compared to INWIT’s vanilla issuance earlier this year. This aligns with the findings that EUR corporate ESG-labelled issuance has a higher book cover on average compared with vanilla deals, so far in 2025. 🔗 Read the full research note here: https://lnkd.in/gQ4-vaqb Written by Emiel Mohamed Loh, Prahalad Prasad, and Josephine Richardson #FixedIncome #SustainableFinance #BondMarkets 

🌍 Jonas David, Research Director at AFII, will be speaking at the Net Zero Investor's Annual Conference today.    📅 21 October 2025  🕓 4:20 PM (BST)  📍 London Stock Exchange    Together with Claire Meier Underhill from ASCOR (Assessing Sovereign Climate-related Opportunities and Risks), Jonas will dive into the world of sovereign bonds, exploring key transactions and developments, including Denmark's green twin bonds and Slovenia's decarbonisation SLB.     💡 The session will unpack trends, resources, and instruments that empower investors to incentivise governments in meeting their climate commitments.     Explore the full agenda 👉 https://lnkd.in/eZRkyaRc   #NetZeroInvestor #SovereignBonds #SustainableFinance #NetZero 

📢 New AFII research: What TDC Net's SLBs can tell us about market perceptions of sustainability targets TDC NET, Denmark's telecoms giant, has just issued its seventh Sustainability-Linked Bond (SLB). Our latest research teases out the pricing differences across the outstanding instruments, showing how market spreads can reflect investors' views on the credibility and timing of emissions targets.  💡 We find that the bonds with later Scope 3 observation dates are trading tighter, potentially implying a higher perceived risk of missed targets and coupon step-ups. 🔗 Read the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/dnwKDrBJ Written by Prahalad Prasad, Emiel Mohamed Loh and Josephine Richardson #FixedIncome #SLBs #TransitionFinance 

Excited to be speaking at #RIAsia in Singapore on October 22-23. Join me to discuss #SustainableFinance developments and industry best practices. Who else is coming? P.S. Use my speaker discount code RIAsia25_speaker for 10% off your delegate pass to join me at the conference. #RIAsia25 #ResponsibleInvesting #SustainableFinanceEvents #SustainableInvestorSummitAsia https://lnkd.in/ggvgtiTy

These past twelve months, geopolitical and fiscal shifts have positioned governments to be heavily reliant on bond markets for their financing needs over the coming years - this includes meeting national commitments on decarbonisation targets. The potential for universal asset owners to drive transition policy via their fixed income portfolios is greater than ever. To neglect this opportunity would be a breach of fiduciary duty. This is because sovereign holdings – which often make up 20-30% of an asset owner’s portfolio – can be harnessed to bring about vast benefits for broader portfolios by lowering climate-related risks. Put simply, now is the time for asset owners to leverage their influence in the bond markets for maximum impact. We’ve already seen this year how bond markets can shape policy. Take the example of the backlash against US tariff policies that led to Treasury yields steepening. This ability of asset owners to signal policy preferences could (and should) be channelled in support of net-zero efforts – and can be if the right tools and expertise are made available to institutions. And this is where we see our role. Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute has set out to transform the global bond market into a powerful force for the net-zero transition by equipping and empowering asset owners to engage their counterparties and effectively price climate risks in their bond  portfolios. A timely piece in Financial Times Moral Money talking about the steadfast commitment from AO's staying the course on climate issues. Thank you Simon Mundy for bringing attention to this. #AssetOwners #FixedIncome #TransitionLinkers

❓What happens to SLBs when their targets and KPIs are recalculated? Holcim, one of the world's largest cement producers, has adjusted the baselines underpinning its outstanding Sustainability-Linked Bonds — with important ramifications for investors.  In our latest analysis, we examine how revisions to Holcim's carbon intensity and water-use have led to the target levels being recalculated. While this doesn't necessarily change the probability of the targets being met, it does require scrutiny from investors. 💡 Our analysis finds that two of the bonds referencing the longer 2030 targets may still reference the original absolute targets, which are now harder to be met, and this could result in a higher option value for those securities. Read the full paper here 👉 https://lnkd.in/e6RBc8dG Written by Emiel Mohamed Loh, Prahalad Prasad, and Josephine Richardson #FixedIncome #SustainabilityLinkedBonds #Holcim #TransitionFinance