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Bayesian Analysis with Python

Bayesian Analysis with Python

By : Osvaldo Martin
4.7 (23)
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Bayesian Analysis with Python

Bayesian Analysis with Python

4.7 (23)
By: Osvaldo Martin

Overview of this book

The third edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python serves as an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian modeling using PyMC, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and other libraries that support and facilitate modeling like ArviZ, for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models; Bambi, for flexible and easy hierarchical linear modeling; PreliZ, for prior elicitation; PyMC-BART, for flexible non-parametric regression; and Kulprit, for variable selection. In this updated edition, a brief and conceptual introduction to probability theory enhances your learning journey by introducing new topics like Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), featuring updated examples. Refined explanations, informed by feedback and experience from previous editions, underscore the book's emphasis on Bayesian statistics. You will explore various models, including hierarchical models, generalized linear models for regression and classification, mixture models, Gaussian processes, and BART, using synthetic and real datasets. By the end of this book, you will possess a functional understanding of probabilistic modeling, enabling you to design and implement Bayesian models for your data science challenges. You'll be well-prepared to delve into more advanced material or specialized statistical modeling if the need arises.
Table of Contents (15 chapters)
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Preface
12
Bibliography
13
Other Books You May Enjoy
14
Index

5.9 Summary

In this chapter, we have seen how to compare models using posterior predictive checks, information criteria, approximated cross-validation, and Bayes factors.

Posterior predictive check is a general concept and practice that can help us understand how well models are capturing different aspects of the data. We can perform posterior predictive checks with just one model or with many models, and thus we can use it as a method for model comparison. Posterior predictive checks are generally done via visualizations, but numerical summaries like Bayesian values can also be helpful.

Good models have a good balance between complexity and predictive accuracy. We exemplified this feature by using the classical example of polynomial regression. We discussed two methods to estimate the out-of-sample accuracy without leaving data aside: cross-validation and information criteria. From a practical point of view, information criteria is a family of theoretical methods looking to balance two...

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