DOUG BAILEY AND
AMERICAN POLITICS JOURNAL
GIVE RALPH REED SOME ADVICE

WEDNESDAY JANUARY 7th 1998: NEW YORK-- Today is my son's birthday and it reminds me of the year he was born. I was working as a legislative analyst and about to embark on a policy career that would span the next two decades. One of my heroes, worshipped from afar, was Doug Bailey, political consultant extraordinary, who seemed to have the Midas touch. Bailey could get Hitler elected president of B'nai B'rith. He writes today in National Journal's Cloakroom, advice to Mega-Christian Ralph Reed who off-loaded his cassock and leadership of the Christian Coalition last year to cash in on his connections and become a money-changer for ultra-right conservatives who think babies, no matter how brain damaged, should be doomed to live a life of miserable loneliness and pain.

Bailey's no liberal himself, but a true artist and top spinmeister for some of this nation's hottest political successes. Like me, he's now more a commentator than practitioner although I've seen what looks like his handiwork in several GOP campaigns.

Doug's advice to young Ralph is valuable beyond money, but Bailey is too much of a gentleman to call a spade a spade, so I thought I'd add some advice to Reed of my own.

Here it Is.

Ralph Reed Asked My Advice?

By Doug Bailey
© National Journal's Cloakroom
Wednesday, Jan. 7, 1998

He hasn't. He's not likely to. But here's what I would tell him if he did ask me about starting a political consulting firm.

John Deardourff and I started Bailey/Deardourff 30 years ago when there were few models to follow. With precious little political experience to rely on, we experimented on our early clients and established a pattern that turned out to work rather well for us for two decades.

Of course, 30 years ago clients hid their consultants from view, not daring to admit they either sought or listened to out-of-state advice.

AMERICAN POLITICS ADDS

Clients also fired their consultants willy-nilly, humiliated them, didn't pay them, and in general treated political gurus like dogs. This still holds true, as the politician uses the consultant as the excuse for any misstep in his or her campaign. The consultant has become the "deniability factor " and the road to Congress is littered with shattered stars who worked night and day for candidates who don't even bother to pick up the phone and say "how you doin' once in a while. Politicians, for the most part, are a group of love-starved near psychotics who choose to place themselves and their families in personal jeopardy merely to hold low paying jobs which often forces them into situations of compromise. Why not screw the professional who got them elected? They know too much anyway.

AMERICAN POLITICS ADDS

Of course, this is both a blessing and a curse - biblically speaking. While Reed does enjoy a fine public reputation among 2 or 3% of the population, the rest of the country remains standoffish at best - viewing Reed as nothing much more than a sleazy televangelist who has more interest in dipping into your wallet than doing the right thing. We think Reed will have more trouble that Bailey predicts. Who's he going to represent, and what will be the ideological entry fee to have Ralph amass his minions and their millions behind your candidacy? Well, first off you have to be against abortion, you have to believe in God, and you probably must adopt Ralph's "family values" as your own, even if you have none - which most politicians don't.

Reed has further problems -- he's going to have to prove what he could lie about before. The biggest lie, of course, if that Christians follow his every word. They don't. We've seen the research, and we've tested Ralph's "F" scores on our our continuing internet poll. The figures don't match the bravado. Bailey is also overstating the case when he characterizes the Christian Coalition as a "powerhouse." It's anything but. At most the CC has about 350,000 members scattered across some 25 pretty unimportant states in terms of presidential aspirations, and its ability to influence voter opinion on a broad scale in 90% of congressional districts is minimal. While Reed has, in the past, claimed millions of members, he must now "show us the money" - and he won't be able to deliver.

in short, Reed has a whopping big problem which even he can't fix with or without a direct line to God. Besides, everyone knows Jesus himself wouldn't even consider registering as a Republican, especially with a Republican party lead by Newt Gingrich, Gary Bauer and the like. No way Jose, not in a million years.

1. Right now you are being given the benefit of the doubt, but after their first campaigns, consultants are judged only on whether they won or lost. If you lose, the brilliance of your strategy or the muscle of your organization isn't worth a thing. So enjoy the moment. Today you can thrive on the expectations people have; next time you will have to live on actual performance.

AMERICAN POLITICS ADDS

Bailey couldn't be more right. But Reed isn't dumb. He'll pick winning candidates the first few outings to establish his reputation. The mainstream media is too dumb to recognize Doug Bailey's Rule #2 (below) and they want to keep Reed alive as a media figure. Why? Because he's such an awful twit and where else can you find a guy who looks like Howdy Doody over-analyzing the American political scene. (Of course some think Reed is a clone of Mad Magazine's Alfred E. Newman, but we prefer Doody -- it just fits.)

AMERICAN POLITICS ADDS

Right on again Doug. But you didn't go far enough. Reed will win a few races, but the party's just about over for the holier-than-thou types who think being God-fearing is kicking minorities down the stairs in order to "help" them get ahead. This nascent philosophy is just about to backfire on Reed and his buddy Pat Robertson, and Bauer won't help. The only one who seems to have a mind in the GOP is new RNC Chairman Nicholson, who although reminding one of a used car salesman, is smart enough to deny Ralph his anti-abortion rule for party support. If this is Reed's idea of getting ahead he won't last more than one cycle. Reed will begin losing as soon as the economy starts a nose dive from geopolitical and global economic pressure. People will realize the world doesn't work on "Contracts With America" or any other phony device concocted by guys like Reed who really believe the American voter is less than a stupid ass. In three years Reed will be lucky to have an office at all -- unless he does the wise thing and simply lobbies for business. Now that's somewhere he could fit right in. However, if he continues to be vocal and push ultra-right Christian candidates down he throats of a salad bowl America he'll blow that opportunity as well. No company wants a meathead proselytizer representing their bottom line in the District or most state capitals.

AMERICAN POLITICS ADDS

Well it's too late for that one Doug. Reed has already pigged out at the candidate buffet. Luckily though he's got some real losers in his stable and on his staff. Of course he has some winners too. None of them will get the genius they paid for as you so deftly point out and Reed is already paving his "road to ruin" as you add. Reed had a big problem going in - one similar to that nut who owns the Washington Times: "Who the heck would work for him?" - no one of any stature, that's for sure, What Reed's ended up with, in our humble opinion, is a gaggle of Christian "Moonies" -- you know, the kind that make those little hairs on the back of you neck rise when they walk into a room.

4. (Another friendly warning flare!) Don't take on clients who want your reputation more than your advice. Once Bailey/Deardourff had earned (or at least gotten) a reputation for winning, candidates wanted to hire us to be able to announce us at a press conference. It was good for their fundraising and their credibility with the press. But in some of these cases, the clients weren't interested in memos, advice or anything but the consultant's name. You can end up being along for the ride without any chance to steer the ship. Good luck!

AMERICAN POLITICS ADDS

Well, here I partially part with Doug. I think it's more Reed flaunting his "Stuff" than clients beating down his door. After all, pols these days are pretty sophisticated. Let me ask you Doug. Would you, even if you were running in the South, rush helter-skelter to Ralph and beg him to take your two hundred grand? Don't think so, not unless you were a nut or were put up by Robertson as a stalking horse candidate for the Lord. No way. You'd go out and hire Mark Penn or Linda DiVal. You'd get Hank Scheinkopf to produce your media if you had a tough race, and maybe a David Garth type if you didn't. If you wanted something sophisticated and safe you'd call Elliott Curson in Philadelphia. There are dozens of more talented guys than Reed. When's the last time he produced a thirty second spot in two hours to counter an attack? When's the last time he bought television time at just the lowest rate or stayed up half the night with a winning candidate and his girlfriend trying to convince them that now was NOT the time to go public with their extramarital affair? Never, that's when. (Of course Reed's candidates wouldn't have the girl-on-the-side problem now, would they?)

AMERICAN POLITICS ADDS

Gotta disagree here too Doug. The last modern consultant that may have been a bigger celebrity than his clients was David Garth. There's never been another. Certainly you don't mean Dick Morris? No, after Garth there's been nobody. But Reed IS the next. Mostly because his clients will be fresh and unknown. If he does his job, they'll eclipse him. The best consultants are totally unknown to the general public, and often even inside the Beltway until a big upset win. In Reed's case you're dead wrong. Reed will often be the ONLY thing his client has going for him or her - and I doubt they'll be many "hers."

AMERICAN POLITICS ADDS

So true Doug. But Reed is a Puppet Master. He even looks like a puppet himself, much as dog lovers begin to look like their mutts. Your advise is absolutely wasted on Reed unless Ralph is ready to give up carrying his cross and dig in for the pure lust of it. We don't think so. Ralph will have nothing BUT puppets whose strings are pulled from bumf*&*k Virginia by media empire-builder Robertson and the Paula Jones defense team et al. The kind of candidates Reed will attract in the long run won't have any opinions at all, except for those contained in their personal Gideon borrowed from the closest Motel 6.

AMERICAN POLITICS ADDS

That good advice is simply wasted on Ralph. He has no choice as he's hamstrung by his own historical pap. How can Reed take on a client who doesn't believe in the school voucher program which would inevitably rape the public schools in favor of "Christian" ones? How can Reed consider a candidate who believes a woman has control of her own body and whatever's in it? Reed is stuck with himself and on himself. I'd trust him with my wife, but not with a candidate I was financing. That is for sure.

I also disagree with your philosophy. Political consultants shouldn't be partisan and shouldn't foist there ideas on candidates. That's absurd. A political consultant is nothing more or less than a hired gun. I would be quite comfortable working for Ronald Reagan or Jerry Brown and, as a matter of fact, I have. This business of toeing the Party Line is what is most destructive to consultants and their families who rely on them for support. You don't ask the best brain surgeon in the world whether he's Jewish before he saves you life. You shouldn't care what your consultant's political views are either. More important, a consultant does a disservice to any client who must conform with HIS ideals. Ridiculous. We both know a mail house genius who engaged in that skullduggery. He wasn't respected and often neglected because he had that absurd check list. Reed has the same list. And as a result he's doomed from the start. Sure, he'll make enough money to retire early, but a serious contender? Never.

Good luck, Ralph. No charge.

AMERICAN POLITICS ADDS

I join Doug Bailey in wishing Ralph every ounce of luck possible. After all, he's a loving husband and Dad. He's doing what he thinks is right for his family and his conscience. There's nothing wrong with that. Only thing is, Reed as each day passes, is getting more out of touch than more in touch with America. Polls show Americans are slowly drifting away from their slight "born-again" mentality so focused by Reed and Gingrich in the early 90's. Things are too good now for Americans to fuss about private lives and sin. It's party time in America, a party that Reed isn't welcome at - unfortunately. because Ralph Reed played an important role in the democratic discussion. He was a lightening rod of controversy and a polarizing force that lead us all to examine our scruples or lack thereof. Too bad he's become just another huckster like Doug and me.

We'll miss him.

Really.

© 1998, 1997, American Politics Journal Publications Inc.