PUBLIKATION
31. juli 2025
Miljøredegørelse 2025
Den seneste miljøredegørelse beskriver, hvad vi har gjort for at reducere vores miljøpåvirkning i 2024. Tiltagene til forbedring af miljøresultaterne omfatter øget energiovervågning for at opnå et mere intelligent forbrug og en delecykelordning, der omfatter alle ECB's adresser.
Se hele redegørelsen
ECB BLOG
31. juli 2025
Pengepolitik påvirker boliger og forbrug
ECB's blog ser på, hvordan ECB's pengepolitik forplanter sig til boligpriserne og boligsalget samt forbruget af produkter til hjemmet.
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PRESSEMEDDELELSE
15. juli 2025
Designkonkurrence om nye eurosedler
ECB har udskrevet en offentlig konkurrence om designet på de nye eurosedler. Designere fra hele Europa opfordres til at indsende deres ansøgning senest mandag den 18. august kl. 12:00 CET. De ansøgere, der udvælges, vil blive inviteret til at indsende deres designforslag.
-- 31 July 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 31 July 2025
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 30 July 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 29 July 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 29 July 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 29 July 2025
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 29 July 2025
- CLIMATE FACTOR FAQ
- 24 July 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 24 July 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 14 July 2025
- Introductory statement by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
- 10 July 2025
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Banka Slovenije
- 9 July 2025
- Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the House of the Euro
- 4 July 2025
- Welcome address by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the International Monetary Fund OEDNE/World Bank Group EDS19 Constituency Meeting
- 26 July 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Miha Jenko on 10 July 2025
- 11 July 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by David Barwick and Marta Vilar on 9 July 2025
- 16 June 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi and Francesco Cánepa on 12 June 2025
- 14 June 2025
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Su Liang on 12 June 2025
- 27 May 2025
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 20 May 2025
- 4 August 2025
- Digital payments are increasing and people are using banknotes and coins less frequently. Is cash on the way out? Piero Cipollone explains why cash is still indispensable and how the ECB is working to ensure it remains readily available and easy to use.Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 31 July 2025
- Monetary policy has an impact on our daily lives. This post explores the ripple effects of the ECB’s recent monetary policy on housing affordability, housing sales and households’ home goods consumption.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
- 30 July 2025
- With trade tensions between China and the United States reaching new heights, Chinese exports may be redirected to the euro area. In a severe scenario, this additional supply and the accompanying lower import prices could bring down euro area inflation by as much as 0.15 percentage points.Details
- JEL Code
- F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
- 28 July 2025
- Stablecoins are reshaping global finance – with the US dollar at the helm. Without a strategic response, European monetary sovereignty and financial stability could erode. However, in this disruption there is also an opportunity for the euro to emerge stronger.Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 25 July 2025
- Following the June NATO summit, Europe is confronting heightened challenges in financing its green, digital and defence transitions as new defence commitments place increased pressure on national and EU budgets. Balancing strategic priorities with debt sustainability is crucial. This blog outlines a three-pronged strategy.Details
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 4 August 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3086Details
- Abstract
- We introduce an estimated medium scale Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model for forecasting and policy analysis in the Euro Area and discuss the applications of this type of models in central banks, focusing on two main exercises. First, we examine an alternative scenario for monetary policy during the early 2020s inflationary episode, showing that earlier hikes in interest rates would have affected more strongly households at the lower end of the wealth distribution, whose consumption our model suggests was already depressed relative to the rest of the population. To provide intuition for this result, we introduce a new decomposition of the effects of monetary policy on consumption across the wealth distribution. Second, we show that introducing heterogeneous households does not come at the cost of forecasting accuracy by comparing the performance of our model to its exact representative-agent counterpart and demonstrating nearly identical results in predicting key aggregate variables.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E12 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Keynes, Keynesian, Post-Keynesian
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 4 August 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3085Details
- Abstract
- In modern macroeconomics, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income shocks is a central object of interest. This paper empirically explores a parallel concept in banking: the marginal propensity to lend out of unsolicited deposit inflows (MPLD). Using county-level dividend payouts as an instrument for deposit inflows, I estimate the MPLD for U.S. banks and show that before QE, the average bank operated “hand-to-mouth” — it transformed approximately every dollar of deposit inflow into new loans, consistent with tight liquidity constraints. However, since then, the MPLD has dropped to 0.35. Moreover, the MPLD decreases in banks’ cash-to-asset ratio and deposit market power. The findings suggest that the QE-induced abundant reserves regime significantly relaxed liquidity constraints for the majority of banks, but did not eliminate them entirely.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 4 August 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Understanding the future of the demand for cash calls for an analysis that separates secular trends and age-related behaviours on different cash usage indicators. This article uses data from the 2019, 2022 and 2024 editions of the Eurosystem study on the payment attitudes of consumers in the euro area (SPACE) survey. It applies an age-period-cohort-interaction (APC-I) framework to illuminate patterns in transactional cash use, precautionary cash hoarding and the perceived importance of cash. Our findings reveal significant period effects, including sustained trends (such as a decline in transactional cash use and an increased reported importance of having cash as an available option) and temporary changes (like a post-pandemic peak in cash hoarding). Age effects are a significant factor shaping cash habits: youngest cohorts (18-27) are characterised by a higher propensity to hoard cash than older groups, paired with average transactional cash use. Meanwhile, cash use in everyday transactions is led by older demographics (63-77), while middle-aged cohorts (28-47) tend to use cash less. Cohort analysis reveals that beneath the general rise in the stated importance of cash across all ages, specific birth cohorts exhibit distinct attitudes. Our analysis indicates that cash fulfils enduring, albeit evolving, roles across different demographic groups, particularly for younger people. The article concludes by discussing policy challenges that will need to be addressed to continue fostering a resilient and inclusive payment system that accommodates digital innovation alongside cash.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
J10 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→General
C31 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions, Social Interaction Models
- 1 August 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 1 August 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 31 July 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 31 July 2025
- SURVEY ON CREDIT TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN EURO-DENOMINATED SECURITIES FINANCING AND OTC DERIVATIVES MARKETS
- 31 July 2025
- ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT
- 30 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3084Details
- Abstract
- This paper uses a general equilibrium framework to examine the effects of temperature on firm-level demand, productivity, and input allocation efficiency, deriving an aggregate damage function for climate change. Using data from Italian firms and detailed climate data, it uncovers a sizable negative effect of extreme temperatures on firm-level productivity and revenue-based marginal product of capital. Based on these estimates, the model generates aggregate productivity losses from local temperature fluctuations that are higher than previously thought, ranging from 0.60 to 6.82 percent depending on the scenario and the extent of adaptation. Notably, these losses are approximately four times greater than those estimated by averaging firm-level losses in a representative firm model, which does not capture frictions that alter allocative efficiency in a heterogeneous firm setting. Therefore, incorporating our framework into Integrated Assessment Models is likely to revise upwards the estimated economic costs of climate change.
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
O44 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Environment and Growth
- 30 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3083Details
- Abstract
- College enrolment typically rises during recessions. This paper demonstrates that housing wealth destruction dampened this countercyclical effect in areas most affected by the U.S. housing bust of 2008-2011. By combining household data with a mortgage credit register and housing price data, we reveal that negative shocks to housing wealth significantly reduced college enrolment among homeowners relative to renters during this period. Up to 2% of the local college-age population did not pursue college enrolment at the height of the bust due to housing wealth destruction. The negative impact of homeownership on college education persists for a decade, contributing to persistently lower incomes among homeowners in the most affected areas.
- JEL Code
- I24 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Education and Research Institutions→Education and Inequality
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
- 30 July 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 133Details
- Abstract
- We investigate the impact of climate risks on sovereign credit ratings worldwide. Our analysis shows that higher temperature anomalies and more frequent natural disasters – measures of physical risk – correlate with lower credit ratings. We find that long-term shifts in climate patterns (“chronic risk”) primarily affect advanced economies, while the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events (“acute risk”) matters more for emerging economies. However, the estimated impact of both types of risk on credit ratings is low and the economic effects are negligible. Ambitious CO2 reduction targets and actual emission reductions are reflected in higher ratings, but only after the 2015 Paris Agreement – suggesting increased attention to transition risk in recent years. Furthermore, highly indebted countries and countries reliant on fossil fuel revenues are assigned lower ratings, while exporters of transition-critical materials have received higher ratings post-2015.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F64 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Environment
H64 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
- 29 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3082Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the implications of a potential loss of credibility in the central bank’s ability to bring inflation back to target in the medium-term (”de-anchoring”). We propose a monetary policy framework in which the central bank accounts for de-anchoring risks using a regime-switching model. First, we derive the optimal monetary policy strategy, which balances the trade-off between the welfare costs of a stronger response to inflation and the benefits of preserving the central bank’s credibility. Next, we apply this framework in a medium-scale regime-switching DSGE model and develop a method to assess de-anchoring risks in real time. Using the post-COVID inflation episode in the euro area as a case study, we find that an explicit ”looking-through” strategy would have only modestly increased de-anchoring risks. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring de-anchoring risks in monetary policy design.
- JEL Code
- D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E10 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→General
- 29 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3081Details
- Abstract
- What are the macroeconomic impacts of tariffs on final goods versus intermediate inputs? We set up a two-region, multi-sector model with production networks, sticky prices and wages, and trade in consumption, investment, and intermediate goods. We show that import tariffs on final goods have a smaller negative impact on GDP compared to tariffs on intermediate inputs, as final goods can be more readily substituted with domestic alternatives. In contrast, tariffs on intermediate inputs lead to larger GDP losses, given the limited substitutability of foreign inputs and their role in global supply chains. Moreover, inflation persistence is lower under tariffs on final goods, whereas tariffs on intermediate goods amplify cost pressures through production linkages. The results imply that a revenue-equivalent approach to import tariffs, targeting only final goods, can cushion the adverse effects of trade wars.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 28 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3080Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on innovation investment using unique firm-level data. First, we document the effect of a large, systematic monetary tightening (ECB rate increases from 0% to 4.5% during 2022-23), with average firm-level innovation cuts of 20%. These cuts persist over the medium term, indicating a sustained innovation slowdown. Second, we use the survey to identify elasticities of innovation expenditure to exogenous policy rate changes. Responses to hikes and cuts are significant and largely symmetric at the baseline rate (4.5%), though we detect potential state-dependent asymmetry due to the extensive margin. The financing channel emerges as one of the transmission channels, with more pronounced effects in firms with higher shares of bank loans and variable-rate loans. Crucially, we show that monetary policy transmits via aggregate demand, with stronger responses in firms with pessimistic demand expectations. Forward guidance provides substantial additional stimulus by reducing uncertainty about future rates, suggesting long-term, supply-side effects of announcements. These results challenge monetary long-run neutrality and are suggestive of policy endogeneity of R∗ operating through innovation-driven technology growth.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 28 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3079Details
- Abstract
- Unprecedented balance sheet expansion in recent years has resulted in heightened financial risk for central banks, reflected initially in higher profits and subsequently in significant losses. Combining data on central bank balance sheets with market data on asset prices, we provide evidence on the evolution and determinants of financial risk-taking by 18 advanced economy central banks. Based on the estimated Value at Risk (VaR), we document that average central bank balance sheet risk increased to about 3 percent of GDP. Central banks took more risk in periods of low policy rates, less expansionary fiscal policies, and more favorable growth prospects. Less independent central banks were more risk averse than their more independent peers, contrary to the fiscal dominance view.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 28 July 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 25 July 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 25 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3078Details
- Abstract
- Does the maturity of the relevant risk-free rate influence the strength of monetary policy pass-through to interest rates on new loans? To address this question, we present novel empirical evidence on lending practices across all euro area countries, using AnaCredit data covering nearly seven million new loans issued to non-financial corporations in 2022–2023. We document substantial variation in (a) the prevalence of fixed- vs floating-rate loans, (b) rate fixation periods, and (c) reference rates. This variation results in lending rates being exposed to different segments of the risk-free rate yield curve which, in turn, influence their sensitivity to monetary policy changes. We show that loans linked to shorter-maturity risk-free rates experience more pronounced monetary pass-through. Importantly, this effect is not purely mechanical, as part of the effect is offset by adjustments in the premium, revealing previously less-explored heterogeneity in the pass-through to lending rates.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 25 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3077Details
- Abstract
- We examine the link between the diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) enabled technologies and changes in the female employment share in 16 European countries over the period 2011-2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level, we find that on average female employment shares increased in occupations more exposed to AI. Countries with high initial female labor force participation and higher initial female relative education show a stronger positive association. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, almost all show a positive relation between changes in female employment shares within occupations and exposure to AI-enabled automation.
- JEL Code
- J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 25 July 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 25 July 2025
- LEGAL ACT
Renter
| Indlånsfacilitet | 2,00 % |
| Primære markedsoperationer (fast rente) | 2,15 % |
| Marginal udlånsfacilitet | 2,40 % |
Inflationsrate
Mere om inflationValutakurser
| USD | US dollar | 1.1404 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 171.61 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86650 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9312 |
Finansiel Stabilitet
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